Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 3/17/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody, sorry for the delay.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m out in AZ and running between a meetup with a scout and getting out to the backfields. My apologies, let’s get going.

Mariner Fan: Hey Brandon! Have you been to a game yet down there? Who impressed you at the most recent game you were AT?

Brendan Gawlowski: I like the capital ‘AT’ at the end. I saw Josuar yesterday, so I’ll say him. 0-3, a couple groundouts, looked like he tweaked his leg sliding but obvious speed and athleticism.

Punk in drublic: Who are some prospects outside the top 100 you think could make significant impact in the majors this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Tons of relievers fall into this bucket.

Brendan Gawlowski: Could Francisco Aleman have a big year? Peyton Pallette? Sure

Conor: Curious your view on the Rockies 2B situation. Roc Riggio seems like he has a shot to be the 2027 starter, but the 2026 situation is a bit of a mess. Do you still see Amador as a future big leaguer? How they’ve dealt with his promotion pace has been so strange.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s backed up a bit but I agree the path with Amador has been bizarre. Would like to see him get a real crack.

coachricky: in retrospect, roman anthony should have been at least a 70fv?

Brendan Gawlowski: All of the 80’s are going to have been undervalued in retrospect.

Alex Anthopoulogy: Hey why shouldn’t I have Ritchie and Fuentes in the Atlanta rotation by April 15th after the brutal 13-in-13 start to the season?

Brendan Gawlowski: I was tempted to write something like “well, you ‘next man up’d’ Fuentes last year, and how’d that go?”

Brendan Gawlowski: But Fuentes has looked really sharp this spring.

Brendan Gawlowski: In his case, you’re looking at the changes you’d have liked to see going into the year — is he getting to the glove side? Is his change more consistent — and if you’re seeing progress… up he goes

Ryan: Any new looks you saw this spring that could be picks to click that weren’t previously on your radar?

Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn’t say he was off the radar, but Wilder Dalis is sure coming along nicely

Brendan Gawlowski: Corey Avant threw really well the other day, hadn’t run into him before.

BP: Cole Young has a very high max EV but a lower EV90. Is that just an error? Can Cole Young get to decent power?

Brendan Gawlowski: He absolutely mauled a ball last summer, it was legit. I don’t entirely know what to make of it and am kind of treating it like an outlier at this point.

Buff: A friend tells me that the Cardinals have always prioritized defense at catcher (think Willson Contreras). I’m wondering if this will continue with the new regime, and how it will affect the career of Rainiel Rodriguez. Who’s the long time catcher for the Cards, Rodriguez or Pages?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think Willson Contreras is a good counterpoint to your friend’s claim

Oaktown Blues: Tommy White’s statcast data has caught my eye this Spring: 95.8 EV, 66.7 HH%, 20% barrel, 82% contact in 30 batted balls. Did his metrics look this good in the minors? Is this sample still too small to be meaningful?

Brendan Gawlowski: The latter. Thirty batted balls in a weird environment.

Kelly Clarkson: Any prospects that have dramatically improved their stock this spring?

Brendan Gawlowski: An Angels source told me Walbert Urena looks great. Intriguing, but we’ll see; he’s teased before.

Matt: Curious what your role as a pro scout entailed. How often were you out scouting on the road vs. working from home? Did your fellow pro scouts follow similar schedules in different locales or did it vary?

Brendan Gawlowski: I was at a series something like five out of seven weeks over the course of the year, maybe three out of four, somewhere in that range. Sometimes those were close to home — Everett in particular was convenient. That felt fairly routine. It’s maybe a bit more than previous generations, but some teams had their guys travel even more.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’d occasionally do video reports, more on an as-needed basis than a regular part of the job.

ZH: Devin Taylor’s single best player comp is….

Brendan Gawlowski: Scott Schebler

SCJH: Are we far enough into minor league backfields play that it’s time to ask the “who are you hearing buzz on” question? If so, um, this is me asking that question.

Brendan Gawlowski: Backfield buzz is flowing. It’s particularly amusing when it goes both directions. Within a day, I had one veteran scout say that they think Miguel Mendez is a potential Top 25 prospect and another say Miguel Mendez is probably a 40

Brendan Gawlowski: Good rebuttal to the idea that all of the data circulating around the game has just flattened opinions on everybody

Petey Halpin: In your write up you mention several swing changes over the years for this guy – are reports of “a new swing” this year kinda more of the same? Anything different here from years past?

Brendan Gawlowski: Apologies for the crap answer, but Eric handled that one and has more familiarity on the player

Guest: Anything to Jose Fernandez, ARI ST standout? Hits the ball pretty hard it looks like

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s been a “stay on the body and glove” report for years; cautiously excited for him.

Jon: It’s time to get away from calling pitches “nasty, dirty, gross, disgusting, evil, diabolic” and just say “really good.”

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe we could just say ‘good’ and ‘ungood’

Young GUardians: Cleveland has a lot of young fringy guys at the edges of their 40 man (Brito, Kayfus, Halpin) Who (if any) among these guys do you see as contributors in 2026? Do you have any favorites here?

Brendan Gawlowski: Kayfus seems most likely to get significant run but I suspect you’ll see all three.

NYY: Where would present day tools Jasson Dominguez and Cam Schlittler land in the Top 100 if they were eligible?

Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s see… Dominguez was a top 20 guy on our last list. The tool grades were about right, a tad generous on the glove maybe, I don’t see him getting to fringe-average. So, he’d probably be a 50 and drop a couple dozen spots. Schlitter would be one of the top pitchers on the list.

J Hench: How long does it take to know if a change in mechanics or other adjustment is “working,” as opposed to it being a hot streak unrelated to the change?  And how long before a player or dev team decide something isn’t working and ditch it?

Brendan Gawlowski: Depends what the change is; do you have something more specific in mind?

Jonathan: I’m sorry, I want to vent. MLB teams are still aggressively cutting scouts, including a few I know. This seems incredibly short-sighted to me, and I say this as someone who does Computer Vision for a living. When a field becomes heavily model-driven (like baseball currently is), the biggest edge can sometimes come from knowing exactly where the model breaks. More concretely, the pattern goes: (1) everyone adopts the same sophisticated tool; (2) the tool is very useful, so it creates convergence; and (3) most competitors start optimizing toward what the tool can measure well. Scouts are your source of deep lived experience, and they’re the ones most likely to recognize when the tool doesn’t capture a specific part of reality very well. This isn’t “experience is better/worse than analytics”; it’s “experience helps identify the blind spots of analytics”. Even teams that have a reputation for blending traditional/analytics seem to be falling prey to this.

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s a little self-serving to say “I agree completely” but, well.

David: Have the spring performances of A’s prospects Tommy White and Henry Bolte changed your assessments of them?

Brendan Gawlowski: No.

RH: Based on your knowledge of mlb and milb talent, how many MLB franchises do you think there should be?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know if there’s a balance point. I’d like to see a bunch more teams for a variety of reasons, though. I’m not worried quality of play

Michael – FG since 2016: Eric referred to you as Beeg…. Not sure if that’s fair game.

Brendan Gawlowski: As you like

Jim: Is Charles Davalan a candidate to become someone who hits so much that he can’t help but max the in game power?

Brendan Gawlowski: Good way to think of him.

Hoos: Wenninger or Christian Scott next met stud?

Brendan Gawlowski: Scott has the higher ceiling.

Oaktown Blues: Wait, you think Roman Anthony is an 80 now?

Brendan Gawlowski: Just saying that, in general, if you use an FV model like we do, we’re going to be light on the 70s and 80s.

Robert: I’m a Tigers fan. I know you just did the Tigers list but is there anything about the system (or a specific player) that you think is interesting, or is there a guy you specifically like, or just some tidbit that isn’t getting attention but pops into your brain. Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: When you’re grinding on video you can kind of get in a groove where you’re evaluating tools and writing.. When I popped on Bryce Rainer, the bat speed made me sit back and go ‘whoa’

Brendan Gawlowski: That was probably the most striking thing in the process with them. That and the whole ‘wow, there are no pitchers here…’ thing

Warren: Have you seen Roldy Brito yet this spring?  I’ve read that he looks bigger but maybe not as fast.  Would that be an improvement?

Brendan Gawlowski: I have seen him and he’s still a burner

Naylor Sailor: Favorite spring training restaurant?

Brendan Gawlowski: So many. Ta carbon; Dilla Libre Dos; Veneto Trattoria. I could go on for a while.

Opifijikl: When you were a scout for PIT, how closely did you work with the development team? You mentioned that you “have to like prospects” in that fantastic article this spring, but do you shade your projection of players with knowledge of organizational proficiencies? Like, X player has some good ability but isn’t very strong, BUT he’s in a system like TOR that seems to build strength so he might shade up?

Brendan Gawlowski: Aligning pro scouting with dev is a sneaky tricky thing to do. Pirates definitely made a lot of strides in that direction over my time there, and there are individuals I should thank (shout out to Vic Black) who would take my calls/texts when I had random questions.

Brendan Gawlowski: As for your specific example… Like Toronto, Pittsburgh is pretty good at building strength. I wouldn’t expect a blue jay to have a lot of runway left in that regard, but an Angel might.

Sam: How are front offices using AI and machine learning outside of say, improving existing projections? E.g., are teams using biomechanics alongside models trained on high-speed video to suggest swing changes or identify players? Just curious where teams are at in this regard.

Brendan Gawlowski: If they’re like every other company in the world, people from the non operational side are probably trying to overfit LLMs on people who don’t really need them

Brendan Gawlowski: That probably fell flat as a joke; short answer, I’m sure there’s applicability but I don’t have any insight on that

Insert Witty Name Here: Re: Jonathan – if you can show that paying scouts will save or earn money for the owners, then they’ll go for it.  It sucks for sure, but fairness doesn’t exist in nature.

Brendan Gawlowski: That’s not how this works

Your Name: Thoughts on the extremely lax WBC roster rules? I’m not a big fan of Italy taking a spot from a team of actual citizens.

Brendan Gawlowski: In the long run we’ll probably need to tighten the eligibility requirements. For now, I see making the field bigger/more competitive as a positive.

Guest: You put up a poll last week that showed that 15% of visitors to this chat were here for Tong content. What have you done to serve that market today?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m way behind quota, you’re right

Rob A: What traits are needed for a player to show higher game power than raw?

Brendan Gawlowski: Consistency of hard contact. That and or a Paredes-like ability to regularly pull fly balls

Sacramneto Weigh Station: Without asking for a name (unless you’d like to share)… what were the grades you gave for the player you thought wasn’t going to Hit but the Field and/or Speed rated high enough to fill at least a bench spot on an MLB team?

Brendan Gawlowski: I put a big league top line grade on a 30 bat and a 6 or 7 glove on guys at catcher, center, or short.

Brendan Gawlowski: I have the Angels on my mind for some reason, so someone like Bryce Teodosio would have grades like that. I’m a little more optimistic about Juan Flores, but you could give him a 3 hit and 7 glove and I’d nod along

JK: Of the giants ACL/A pitchers, which ones do you like best/do you think have the best chance to succeed as #3/4 starters? (Bresnahan, Martinez, De La Torre, Cayama)

Brendan Gawlowski: Martinez; Bresnahan/De La Torre; Cayama

Brendan Gawlowski: EL saw Martinez yesterday, said his stuff was a little down for what that’s worth.

doughboy: tongue somewhat in cheek but knowing how well Mcgonigle has looked this spring hitting would he would be a better option right now at 2b than Turang in wbc?

Brendan Gawlowski: More upside maybe but hard to have any conviction in that right now.

AL Central Casting: More of a development question, but how do teams approach giving players specific things to work on during the offseason? I was reading about Brooks Lee working on “explosiveness” training this offseason, which had a lot of Twins fans wondering why the team hadn’t had him doing this while he was a prospect.

Brendan Gawlowski: I can’t speak for every org, but it’s normal for teams to have a “development plan” for each of their players. That includes a tailored strength and conditioning regimen, among other things.

Brendan Gawlowski: Players also have agency here

Uncle Spike: What’s the ceiling for someone like Esmerlyn Valdez?  Perhaps I’m drinking the cool aid but I think he could be really good.  He’s never really struggled in 5 years of pro ball.  Is coming off his best year, than was amazing in the AFL and putting up a solid spring.

Brendan Gawlowski: Everyday regular

Kristen Campbell: Do you think my path to regular at bats is a different org?

Brendan Gawlowski: You’re in a tricky spot and I hope you don’t get Rusney’d.

gamer: do teams have a way to quantify / value pitcher stride direction and its relationship to deception? every public facing model on the planet is predicting an andrew abbott backslide this year, but im skeptical as long as he keeps his funky stride direction

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m skeptical we’ll ever accurately quantify deception.

Brendan Gawlowski: So, maybe teams are trying? I wouldn’t have a guy do something unnatural/uncomfortable just because a model said he’d be more deceptive if he did, though.

Slowbama: braves’ Manuel Dos Passos: anything there?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not with the bat; defense grades on complex catchers are a tough eval with my current tools. He didn’t come up when I was casting a wide net from sources on other guys to include.

T2: Are there any former prospects that evaluators got so wrong that you wish you could go back and reassess using today’s technologies and evaluation methods? Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m morbidly curious what, like, Brandon Wood looked like as a minor leaguer. I’m also under no illusions that we’ve advanced as an industry to the point that we’re just nailing everybody in the top 10 or 20, so I’m not trying to cast a stone from my glass condo here.

S-purrer: Konnor griffin when

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m not sure the Pirates even know yet

WBC Time: The WBC seems full of hot Royals!  Am I crazy to think that aside from 6-9 in their lineup, KC has the most balanced team in the Central.  Detroit’s lineup is suspect, as is Cleveland’s rotation.

Brendan Gawlowski: That’s exactly what Meg was saying at dinner yesterday… ‘oh look, another royal’

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think you’re crazy; has Estevez has looked shaky enough this spring to challenge the premise though?

Michael P. Ness: any players who were just outside the cusp on your braves list?

Brendan Gawlowski: outside the cusp of what?

Jaybee: ETA on Bazzana? Can he compete for ROY?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sounds like not Opening Day. I don’t think he needs a ton of seasoning though.

AL Central Casting: Back to Brooks Lee in particular – why wouldn’t the team be having him do the work to help his range at short until now? Did they not think he needed it? He claims this is the first time he’s learned about this kind of training.

Brendan Gawlowski: Hard to say without knowing what he’s been doing in previous years.

Alec Asher Wojchiechowski: What do you make of Kevin Alvarez getting a spring training start with the MLB squad?

Brendan Gawlowski: Good sign

Naylor Sailor: Favorite Cactus League park?

Brendan Gawlowski: Melanoma Camelback Ranch

Brendan Gawlowski: I said that at a game once when my boss was around and another scout turned to him and asked what was wrong with me, so that may not be the consensus opinion you’re looking for…

Oaktown Blues: Which current prospect would make the flashiest showcase video a la Yoenis Cespedes?

Brendan Gawlowski: Can’t tell if Clark’s would be great or really cringy

Rob A: One level deeper if you don’t mind… so if consistency of hard contact ——> game power > raw, is it just a plus or plus-plus hit tool? Or is some part of it baseball aptitude/IQ? Or is that the same thing?

Brendan Gawlowski: I hadn’t rally thought of it this way before, but yeah, you do need to have hit skill to pull this off. Which isn’t the same as ‘you need to be able to hit for average’

NFP: What does being top-hand/bottom-hand dominant mean for bat path and/or locations and shapes? Does that mean L/R guys are likely to have weaknesses that L/L guys don’t, for example?

Brendan Gawlowski: Bottom hand dominant swings are looping, low ball swings and guys who have them tend to struggle with pitches up in the zone. It doesn’t have anything to do with how they throw

Brendan Gawlowski: You can get away with it if you have a fast bat or a great approach

Erick: what do you make of joey cantillo? had 35+ grades here and on graduation, doesnt grade well by the stuff/location numbers, but still managed good results and the era estimators seem to believe it was earned. hard for me to make sense of him, thoughts?

Brendan Gawlowski: Like him as a No. 4

Jake Jortles: What’s your favourite time of year/ league to scout?

Brendan Gawlowski: all year; I like each level in a different way, but there’s a rubber meets the road flavor to High-A these days that’s very compelling.

chooch: I’m ignorant on pitching mechanics. All the talk this spring has been about Painter not being able to get his arm slot back up and get his fastball shape back.

Can you explain after TJ surgery, why arm slot drops? Why it’s not as simple as “raise it back up?”

Brendan Gawlowski: Could be a lot of reasons. Maybe it hurts, maybe the ball’s not coming out well out of that slot, etc.

Uncle Spike: Help me understand how you quantify someone’s hit tool.  For example, McGonigle has a 60 pitch selection/60 bat control and a 65 hit tool. Bazzana has a 70 pitch selection/50 bat control and a 45 hit tool.

Brendan Gawlowski: Personally I like to evaluate the hit tool as its own beast and don’t like the way it shakes out if done in a formulaic way

Al: Hey Brandon, what kind of careers might Deyvison de Los Santos and Thayron Liranzo have?  Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: Liranzo, you can read about on our top 100; DDLS projects as a bench bat

Baseball learner: Thoughts on Kervin Castro and Yovanny Cruz as Yankees bullpen options? Chivili looks like a long term project, but the stuff is enticing as well

Brendan Gawlowski: Like Castro as a sixth- or seventh guy down there.

Brendan Gawlowski: Sorry for the short one today, but going to shut it down to get out to the Rangers backfields. Thanks for stopping by, we’ll have a more normal one next week.