Building a Farm: National League Central
Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.
The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:
- I included team lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, Bullpen Banter and our own Marc Hulet. There are more lists out there, but I needed to cut it off at some point. These were the lists that an unscientific Twitter crowd-source noted, and they are also sites I visit often. If you use another site, please leave it in the comments, and I might use it in future research.
- I also included team-centric blogs for each team to add a local flavor to the mix. They may be higher/lower on certain prospects, but they add a voice from those who follow the team closely. Suggestions for teams in the remaining divisions are welcome.
- Overall grades and risks are added, as well. Prospect lists for each team only allow comparison within each system, but adding overall 20-80 grades and risks give us the ability to cross-examine lists more objectively. Unfortunately, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are currently the only ones that include a specific final grade of these characteristics, with Sickels adding a letter grade that combines the two. The grades and risk, however, help us examine prospects across systems and over various years.
The last five columns for each team are averaged scores.
- AVG – This is the average ranking for each prospect. I didn’t use a points system because the lists do not cover a standard number of players. Averaging the numbers by only including the lists each was ranked will help someone who has only been named in one or two lists, but it will also highlight where some controversial prospects might be.
- RANK – This is the numbered order based on the average scores. I hope this score will highlight where gaps can be when looking at the differences between prospects.
- GRADE – This is the average grades for players listed in Baseball America and in Baseball Prospectus.
- RISK – This is the averaged “Risk Rating” for each prospect based on the determinations by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The point system is unscientific and is subject to change in the future with more research. It is currently:
- Safe – 0 points
- Low – 1 point
- Medium/Moderate – 2 points
- High – 3 points
- Extreme – 4 points
- RISK – the qualitative risk based off the “Risk Rating”. Currently:
- Safe – less than 1
- Low – greater than or equal to 1 or less than 2
- Medium – greater than or equal to 2 or less than 3
- High – greater than or equal to 3 or less than 4
- Extreme – equal to 4
Below the prospect lists, I calculated the average grade and risk for the entire system: the prospects with grades of 50-or-better and the prospects with grades of 60-or-better. When we get through all of the lists, I’ll put up the overall scores along with the major outlets’ farm rankings.
(The Google Doc with the individual lists and the team-specific blogs for this division can be found here)
Chicago Cubs
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | SS | 1.25 | 1 | 67.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Albert Almora | OF | 1.88 | 2 | 60.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jorge Soler | OF | 2.88 | 3 | 62.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Arodys Vizcaino | RHP | 4.75 | 4 | 65.0 | 3.5 | High |
| Brett Jackson | OF | 5.43 | 5 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Dan Vogelbach | 1B | 6.29 | 6 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Pierce Johnson | RHP | 7.57 | 7 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Christian Villanueva | 3B | 9.00 | 8 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Kyuji Fukijawa | RHP | 9.00 | 9 | 45.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Dillon Maples | RHP | 10.17 | 10 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| JC Paniagua | RHP | 10.25 | 11 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Jeimer Candelario | 3B | 10.57 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Arismendy Alcantara | SS | 11.60 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Duane Underwood | RHP | 11.88 | 14 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Jae-Hoon Ha | OF | 12.00 | 15 | – | – | – |
| Junior Lake | SS | 12.67 | 16 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt Szczur | OF | 12.83 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Paul Blackburn | RHP | 14.33 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Gioskar Amaya | SS/2B | 15.20 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Josh Vitters | 3B | 15.50 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Alberto Cabrera | RHP | 16.67 | 21 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Marco Hernandez | SS | 17.00 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Logan Watkins | 2B | 18.00 | 23 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Robert Whitenack | RHP | 21.50 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tony Zych | RHP | 22.00 | 25 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Trey Martin | OF | 22.25 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Barret Loux | RHP | 23.00 | 27 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Trey McNutt | RHP | 23.50 | 28 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ronald Torreyes | 2B | 25.00 | 29 | – | – | – |
| Matt Loosen | RHP | 27.00 | 30 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Lendy Castillo | RHP | 28.00 | 31 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Marcus Hatley | RHP | 29.00 | 32 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.333 | 2.700 | 21 | 54.048 | 3.048 | 4 | 63.750 | 3.000 |
The Cubs’ farm system has really rebounded over the past few years, and they have one of the higher 50+ and 60+ ratings to date. While Javier Baez hasn’t shown a lot of “refinement”, he’s shown the tools to project a high ceiling and eclipse the more skills-oriented Albert Almora. Dillon Maples, another high-risk/high-reward prospect, had the widest range of rankings in the system after an iffy first professional season.
Cincinnati Reds
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Hamilton | OF | 1.13 | 1 | 67.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Robert Stephenson | RHP | 1.88 | 2 | 62.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Tony Cingrani | LHP | 3.50 | 3 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Daniel Corcino | RHP | 3.88 | 4 | 55.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Nick Travieso | RHP | 5.63 | 5 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jesse Winker | OF | 6.38 | 6 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| JJ Hoover | RHP | 6.60 | 7 | 45.0 | 0.0 | Safe |
| Sean Buckley | 3B | 8.00 | 8 | – | – | – |
| Kyle Lotzkar | RHP | 8.67 | 9 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Dan Langfield | RHP | 10.38 | 10 | 52.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Ismael Guillon | LHP | 10.63 | 11 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Jonathan Reynoso | OF | 11.00 | 12 | 60.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Drew Cisco | RHP | 12.00 | 13 | – | – | – |
| Carlos Contreras | RHP | 12.00 | 14 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jeff Gelalich | OF | 13.20 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Yorman Rodriguez | OF | 13.25 | 16 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Henry Rodriguez | 2B | 13.33 | 17 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Tanner Rahier | 3B | 13.40 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ryan Wright | 2B | 13.50 | 19 | – | – | – |
| Jon Moscot | RHP | 14.00 | 20 | – | – | – |
| Pedro Diaz | RHP | 15.00 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ryan LaMarre | OF | 16.33 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Donald Lutz | 1B | 16.33 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| David Vidal | 3B | 17.00 | 24 | – | – | – |
| Kyle Waldrop | OF | 17.50 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tucker Barnhart | C | 17.67 | 26 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Amir Garrett | LHP | 18.67 | 27 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Sal Romano | RHP | 19.00 | 28 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Seth Mejias-Brean | 3B | 19.33 | 29 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Neftali Soto | 1B | 21.33 | 30 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Gabriel Rosa | 3B | 21.50 | 31 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Chad Rogers | RHP | 24.00 | 32 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Theo Bowe | OF | 24.00 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Devin Lohman | 2B | 24.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Curtis Partch | RHP | 26.00 | 35 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.034 | 2.707 | 22 | 53.182 | 3.068 | 3 | 63.333 | 3.000 |
The defending NL Central champions continue to have a decent farm system. Billy Hamilton, the man of stolen-base records, leads the pack with Robert Stephenson not far behind. Gabriel Rosa, the 19-year old third-baseman, has his believers and his doubters, but he’ll need to do better than he has in Rookie ball.
Milwaukee Brewers
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wily Peralta | RHP | 1.25 | 1 | 60.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Tyler Thornburg | RHP | 2.63 | 2 | 52.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Taylor Jungmann | RHP | 3.57 | 3 | 50.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Jim Henderson | RHP | 4.00 | 4 | – | – | – |
| Johnny Hellweg | RHP | 4.13 | 5 | 57.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Clint Coulter | C | 6.13 | 6 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Victor Roache | OF | 7.43 | 7 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Jimmy Nelson | RHP | 8.00 | 8 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Hunter Morris | 1B | 8.14 | 9 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Scooter Gennett | 2B | 9.29 | 10 | 50.0 | 1.5 | Low |
| Mitch Haniger | OF | 9.38 | 11 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Jed Bradley | LHP | 9.75 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Mark Rogers | RHP | 10.75 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyrone Taylor | OF | 11.75 | 14 | 52.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Logan Schafer | OF | 13.67 | 15 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jorge Lopez | RHP | 13.80 | 16 | 55.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Orlando Arcia | SS | 14.00 | 17 | 55.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Hiram Burgos | RHP | 14.50 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Ariel Pena | RHP | 15.17 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Khris Davis | RHP | 16.50 | 20 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Drew Gagnon | RHP | 17.50 | 21 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Damien Magnifico | RHP | 19.33 | 22 | – | – | – |
| Nick Bucci | RHP | 19.50 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Cameron Garfield | C | 20.00 | 24 | – | – | – |
| Caleb Gindl | OF | 20.75 | 25 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| David Goforth | RHP | 21.00 | 26 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jesus Sanchez | RHP | 21.00 | 27 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Cody Scarpetta | RHP | 24.00 | 28 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jose Pena | OF | 24.00 | 29 | – | – | – |
| Michael Olmsted | RHP | 25.00 | 30 | – | – | – |
| Santo Manzanillo | RHP | 26.00 | 31 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Yadiel Rivera | SS | 26.50 | 32 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Chris McFarland | 2B | 27.00 | 33 | – | – | – |
| Kentrail Davis | OF | 28.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Michael Reed | OF | 29.00 | 35 | – | – | – |
| Kyle Heckathorn | RHP | 29.50 | 36 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Josh Prince | OF | 30.00 | 37 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.083 | 2.700 | 21 | 52.500 | 2.857 | 1 | 60.000 | 2.000 |
The Brewers continue to have a weak farm system, but it has slowly improved recently. A solid group of arms led by Wily Peralta gives the Brewers some possible future rotation depth. Jimmy Nelson is the one that seems to give evaluators the most fits.
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | RHP | 1.00 | 1 | 72.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jameson Taillon | RHP | 2.00 | 2 | 67.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Alen Hanson | SS | 3.63 | 3 | 60.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Gregory Polanco | OF | 3.75 | 4 | 60.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Luis Heredia | RHP | 4.63 | 5 | 62.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Josh Bell | OF | 6.38 | 6 | 60.0 | 3.5 | High |
| Barrett Barnes | OF | 7.88 | 7 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kyle McPherson | RHP | 9.33 | 8 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Wyatt Mathisen | C | 10.25 | 9 | 52.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Nick Kingham | RHP | 11.00 | 10 | 50.0 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Clay Holmes | RHP | 11.57 | 11 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Tyler Glasnow | RHP | 12.00 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Justin Wilson | LHP | 12.20 | 13 | 50.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Tony Sanchez | C | 13.67 | 14 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Dilson Herrera | 2B | 14.17 | 15 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Bryan Morris | RHP | 14.25 | 16 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Alex Dickerson | 1B | 14.67 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Andrew Oliver | LHP | 16.00 | 18 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Victor Black | RHP | 16.50 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Phil Irwin | RHP | 17.00 | 20 | – | – | – |
| Adrian Sampson | RHP | 18.00 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Stolmy Pimentel | RHP | 18.00 | 22 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Willy Garcia | OF | 18.50 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jin-De Jhang | C | 21.00 | 24 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Jose Osuna | 1B | 21.50 | 25 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Gift Ngoepe | SS | 22.50 | 26 | 45.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Matt Curry | 1B | 24.00 | 27 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Brandon Cumpton | RHP | 26.00 | 28 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Duke Welker | RHP | 27.00 | 29 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Harold Ramirez | OF | 29.00 | 30 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Clint Robinson | 1B | 30.00 | 31 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.129 | 2.677 | 22 | 53.864 | 2.955 | 6 | 63.750 | 2.833 |
The Pirates have a top-heavy system. The top 6 all have very high ceilings, and they are a nice balance of pitchers and position players. Wyatt Mathisen, who comes in just after that top 6, has a wide range of rankings as evaluators weigh his ability behind the plate and lack of experience.
St. Louis Cardinals
| Player | Pos | AVG | RANK | GRADE | RISK | RISK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Taveras | OF | 1.00 | 1 | 70.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Shelby Miller | RHP | 2.13 | 2 | 67.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Carlos Martinez | RHP | 3.13 | 3 | 67.5 | 2.5 | Medium |
| Trevor Rosenthal | RHP | 4.25 | 4 | 60.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Michael Wacha | RHP | 5.25 | 5 | 57.5 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Kolten Wong | 2B | 5.38 | 6 | 52.5 | 1.5 | Low |
| Matt Adams | 1B | 7.75 | 7 | 50.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Tyrell Jenkins | RHP | 8.00 | 8 | 57.5 | 3.5 | High |
| Carson Kelly | 3B | 8.88 | 9 | 52.5 | 3.0 | High |
| Anthony Garcia | OF | 9.67 | 10 | – | – | – |
| Michael Blazek | RHP | 11.00 | 11 | – | – | – |
| Stephen Piscotty | 3B | 11.17 | 12 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Patrick Wisdom | 3B | 12.86 | 13 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Greg Garcia | 2B/SS | 13.00 | 14 | – | – | – |
| Pete Kozma | SS | 13.00 | 15 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| James Ramsey | OF | 13.60 | 16 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Kevin Siegrist | LHP | 14.00 | 17 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Jordan Swagerty | RHP | 15.00 | 18 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Steve Bean | C | 15.33 | 19 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Ryan Jackson | SS | 15.40 | 20 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Victor De Leon | RHP | 16.00 | 21 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| John Gast | LHP | 16.25 | 22 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Charlie Tilson | OF | 16.67 | 23 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| CJ McElroy | OF | 17.00 | 24 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Starlin Rodriguez | 2B | 17.50 | 25 | – | – | – |
| Eric Fornataro | RHP | 17.50 | 26 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Seth Maness | RHP | 17.75 | 27 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Breyvic Valera | INF | 18.00 | 28 | – | – | – |
| Maikel Cleto | RHP | 19.00 | 29 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Tyler Lyons | LHP | 19.00 | 30 | – | – | – |
| Tim Cooney | LHP | 19.50 | 31 | 50.0 | 3.0 | High |
| Lee Stoppelman | LHP | 20.00 | 32 | – | – | – |
| Seth Blair | RHP | 21.50 | 33 | 50.0 | 4.0 | Extreme |
| Sam Freeman | LHP | 22.00 | 34 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Jorge Rondon | RHP | 24.00 | 35 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| Mike O’Neill | OF | 28.00 | 36 | 40.0 | 1.0 | Low |
| Keith Butler | RHP | 29.00 | 37 | 45.0 | 2.0 | Medium |
| System Grade | System Risk | 50+ | 50+ Grade | 50+ Risk | 60+ | 60+ Grade | 60+ Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.000 | 2.333 | 20 | 54.250 | 2.550 | 4 | 66.250 | 1.500 |
The Cardinals don’t have a high overall grade, but their risk is absurdly low. Moving over to the 50 and 60+ grades, they have a couple of the highest scores, but their risk is much, much lower than anyone else’s. That combination of high-ceiling talent with a lack of risk is why this system has the publicity it does.
Wondering why Shelby Miller is *low* risk while Cole and Taillon are *medium*. Maybe a historical bias against the Pirates player development regime?
I’d have to imagine it has more to do with the fact that Shelby Miller already has faced ML pitching, and is currently slotted to start the year with the big league club where as Cole and Tailon are both starting in the minors. Don’t think there is bias there.
Well, Taveras and Wong are also Low risk and they haven’t faced ML pitching and are starting the year in the minors. Matt Adams is also Low risk and while he’s faced ML pitching, he wasn’t exactly dominant and he’s a 24 year old 1B prospect.
So I have to assume it has something to do with the Cardinals having a good track record of developing prospects.
Pitchers are always inherently riskier than hitters. Miller is lower risk than Cole and Taillon because he’s MLB ready. The hitters are lower risk because they’re hitters. And they’re pretty safe hitters as well. Taveras is probably the best bat in the minors, Adams slugged over .600 in AAA and Wong is considered the stereotypical low ceiling, high floor prospect who is almost certain to be around league average and not much more.
At any rate none of this is as surprising as the consensus top minor league system in the MLB ranking 4th in its own division in terms of talent.
Well… he saw 13 innings, sure. I’m not certain that proves much. I’m not saying Cole & Taillon are low risk. I’m just saying that there’s got to be some reason Miller is and they aren’t. Good points from maguro on Taveras, Wong, and Adams, too.
Miller has 3 pitches and the requisite command/control to pitch in the MLB. There are still some concerns about Cole’s command and Taillon’s change-up/command. I wouldn’t say they’re “big” concerns, but it makes some sense that they’re a little more risky than Miller. But all in all, they’re splitting hairs, and the wording of low vs. medium probably implies more of a difference than if they were to numerically grade their risk.