Can the Mets Get Back?

Some of the nausea that comes with fandom begins as a terrible question in the back of your head. Could this be their best chance? Could this be their only shot? What if things fall apart next year? Do I trust the team’s front office to do the right things to keep this train on the tracks?

It is those nervous bubbles, those heartaches, those feelings of self-doubt that make the eventual win so amazing. We can’t do away with them or we lose some of the engine of future pleasure.

But if you’re a Mets fan, right now you’re left to wallow in those negative thoughts. Those triumphs that came before the World Series have faded quickly. You’re left in the dark, hoping that the hot stove provides light and warmth, and that hope is your friend and not a trick in the night, leading you astray.

So… can the Mets make it back?

Let’s first just take the free agents and list their contributions to the Mets last year and their projected contributions next year, as best as we can.

That’s eight wins leaving the door. But you can’t bank on yesterday’s wins going forward. Cespedes may just have had his career year, for example. Steamer says the Mets need to replace five wins if they are going to replace that production going forward.

The bullpen will still have Jeurys Familia and Hansel Robles, and, like most teams, they’ll find a way to cobble together the rest of it. Perhaps the Mets can now attract the Ryan Madson types, the guys with (possibly) good stuff that have fallen on bad times and want to come back with a good team. David Aardsma, Bobby Parnell, Joel Hanrahan, Blake Parker… add a couple of these in spring and hope they find their stuff again. Maybe spend a buck or two on Jim Johnson or Jason Frasor. Hope for growth from Logan Verrett, Dario Alvarez, Josh Edgin, more reliability from Carlos Torres. Maybe it’s time to make Rafael Montero into a reliever, he might be a lights-out reliever. Maybe the Nationals would like to rethink the whole Jonathan Papelbon thing.

We still (probably) haven’t spent any real money, which is important given the way that the team has already hinted at thriftiness again this offseason. We might have to spend a little money to fill the fifth spot in the rotation. Maybe just bring back Bartolo Colon at a reasonable rate. Or maybe Zack Wheeler plus the farm (and, yes, Jon Niese) is good enough. His improving command was a reason to be excited about him, and he took all of 2015 off, which leads to the best outcomes, usually.

So it all comes back to the lineup, which was the source for much of the team’s second-half runs. Take a look at the Mets 40-game rolling mean plus-minus (blue) against the Royals (black) last year, thanks to Joseph Jensen. Adding capable replacement level players and a bat like Yoenis Cespedes made a huge difference.

This is where it gets tricky without knowing what the team wants to spend. They spent $100-110 million last year, though, so maybe it’s fair to say they’ll spend that again. They now have something like $20m more to spend, after the World Series, even accounting for the fact that the team lost some money last year.

Their current roster has $61 million set to the veterans. Arbitration is a tough one to figure out, but if they keep everyone, and the MLBTradeRumors projections are correct, they are looking at $93m already out the door next year. They get another $8.3 million if they let Addison Reed and Jenrry Mejia go, which seems reasonable. Maybe they sign Reed back for less.

Let’s give them $10 million for the bullpen, minus those two guys. That leaves $25 million to try and replace star-level production somewhere. Most likely, that will have to come at second, short (pushing Wilmer Flores to second), or center. With Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson, the corners are a tough fit.

Who’s out there? Not many that fit the bill, really.

Most of them require a little work to make them fit. Some of the better bats don’t fit the positions, especially for a team that should probably look to improve the defense. Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward — do you want them playing center field all year? Maybe Heyward’s 51 innings there were enough to entice the Mets. At 26, he’s certainly the youngest of the group, and his patience would fit the team philosophy. Still, he’ll cost a lot of money for an uneasy fit.

Howie Kendrick *might* be a little better than Daniel Murphy, but he’s two years older and would probably cost more too. Why would they do one and (categorically) not the other? Especially if the Dodgers give Kendrick a qualifying offer. Then the value of the pick you give up could easily make Murphy the better option.

That leaves three players that fit this team best.

Even the fits are tricky. How much will Ian Desmond want after a bad year? Has defense slipped to the point that he’s not an upgrade over Wilmer Flores? Does his lack of patience fit the team philosophy? If he wants to sign a short-term pillow contract, maybe the Mets can oblige.

Dexter Fowler, in one way, would be an amazing fit. He’d improve the outfield defense and take walks and show power. He’s got that expensive combination of good recent results and the right age going for him, though. He’s also better against lefties since he’s a natural righty, and that makes him an unnatural pairing with Juan Lagares.

Ben Zobrist seems like a perfect fit except for the age thing. Coming off of the best contact rate of his career and the best power of the last three years, he seems to be aging well. He could transition to the outfield if the Mets find another infielder by the time Curtis Granderson’s contract is up after 2017.

None of these three players will give the Mets Cespedes’ power back, but they could improve the defense and help the balance sheet in other ways. They won’t cost the same as Cespedes, either. They might even little money on the table to improve the team depth so that they don’t have to go get Kelly Johnsons of the world next season. And the rest of the missing wins will have to come from full seasons and improvement from the young players on the team — a not impossible idea, given that the Mets were younger than league average in the lineup and the rotation, even with Bartolo Colon and Michael Cuddyer on the team.

If you focus too hard on Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, you might feel that familiar nausea coming back. They were important to the 2015 Mets. But their production is not impossible to replace. One medium-priced free agent, a few relievers, and some growth and good health from their young players, and they could be back again next year. In which case, all the butterflies will have been worth it.