Can the Mets Get Back?
Some of the nausea that comes with fandom begins as a terrible question in the back of your head. Could this be their best chance? Could this be their only shot? What if things fall apart next year? Do I trust the team’s front office to do the right things to keep this train on the tracks?
It is those nervous bubbles, those heartaches, those feelings of self-doubt that make the eventual win so amazing. We can’t do away with them or we lose some of the engine of future pleasure.
But if you’re a Mets fan, right now you’re left to wallow in those negative thoughts. Those triumphs that came before the World Series have faded quickly. You’re left in the dark, hoping that the hot stove provides light and warmth, and that hope is your friend and not a trick in the night, leading you astray.
So… can the Mets make it back?
Let’s first just take the free agents and list their contributions to the Mets last year and their projected contributions next year, as best as we can.
| 2015 WAR | 2016 WAR | 16 AVG | 16 OBP | 16 SLG | 16 ERA | 16 WHIP | 16 K% | |
| Bartolo Colon | 2.6 | 0.5 | 3.25 | 1.10 | 19.50% | |||
| Tyler Clippard | -0.1 | 0 | 3.58 | 1.25 | 23.40% | |||
| Eric O’Flaherty | -0.1 | 0 | 3.79 | 1.36 | 18.40% | |||
| Bobby Parnell | -0.1 | 0 | 4.25 | 1.45 | 18.20% | |||
| Jerry Blevins | 0.2 | 0 | 3.37 | 1.23 | 23.90% | |||
| Yoenis Cespedes | 2.7 | 2.8 | 0.259 | 0.305 | 0.464 | |||
| Daniel Murphy | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.281 | 0.327 | 0.410 | |||
| Juan Uribe | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.252 | 0.303 | 0.383 | |||
| Kelly Johnson | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.224 | 0.289 | 0.368 |
That’s eight wins leaving the door. But you can’t bank on yesterday’s wins going forward. Cespedes may just have had his career year, for example. Steamer says the Mets need to replace five wins if they are going to replace that production going forward.
The bullpen will still have Jeurys Familia and Hansel Robles, and, like most teams, they’ll find a way to cobble together the rest of it. Perhaps the Mets can now attract the Ryan Madson types, the guys with (possibly) good stuff that have fallen on bad times and want to come back with a good team. David Aardsma, Bobby Parnell, Joel Hanrahan, Blake Parker… add a couple of these in spring and hope they find their stuff again. Maybe spend a buck or two on Jim Johnson or Jason Frasor. Hope for growth from Logan Verrett, Dario Alvarez, Josh Edgin, more reliability from Carlos Torres. Maybe it’s time to make Rafael Montero into a reliever, he might be a lights-out reliever. Maybe the Nationals would like to rethink the whole Jonathan Papelbon thing.
We still (probably) haven’t spent any real money, which is important given the way that the team has already hinted at thriftiness again this offseason. We might have to spend a little money to fill the fifth spot in the rotation. Maybe just bring back Bartolo Colon at a reasonable rate. Or maybe Zack Wheeler plus the farm (and, yes, Jon Niese) is good enough. His improving command was a reason to be excited about him, and he took all of 2015 off, which leads to the best outcomes, usually.
So it all comes back to the lineup, which was the source for much of the team’s second-half runs. Take a look at the Mets 40-game rolling mean plus-minus (blue) against the Royals (black) last year, thanks to Joseph Jensen. Adding capable replacement level players and a bat like Yoenis Cespedes made a huge difference.
This is where it gets tricky without knowing what the team wants to spend. They spent $100-110 million last year, though, so maybe it’s fair to say they’ll spend that again. They now have something like $20m more to spend, after the World Series, even accounting for the fact that the team lost some money last year.
Their current roster has $61 million set to the veterans. Arbitration is a tough one to figure out, but if they keep everyone, and the MLBTradeRumors projections are correct, they are looking at $93m already out the door next year. They get another $8.3 million if they let Addison Reed and Jenrry Mejia go, which seems reasonable. Maybe they sign Reed back for less.
Let’s give them $10 million for the bullpen, minus those two guys. That leaves $25 million to try and replace star-level production somewhere. Most likely, that will have to come at second, short (pushing Wilmer Flores to second), or center. With Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson, the corners are a tough fit.
Who’s out there? Not many that fit the bill, really.
Most of them require a little work to make them fit. Some of the better bats don’t fit the positions, especially for a team that should probably look to improve the defense. Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward — do you want them playing center field all year? Maybe Heyward’s 51 innings there were enough to entice the Mets. At 26, he’s certainly the youngest of the group, and his patience would fit the team philosophy. Still, he’ll cost a lot of money for an uneasy fit.
Howie Kendrick *might* be a little better than Daniel Murphy, but he’s two years older and would probably cost more too. Why would they do one and (categorically) not the other? Especially if the Dodgers give Kendrick a qualifying offer. Then the value of the pick you give up could easily make Murphy the better option.
That leaves three players that fit this team best.
| Player | Age | Position | 16 AVG | 16 OBP | 16 SLG | 16 wRC+ | 16 WAR |
| Ben Zobrist | 34 | 2B/COF | 0.275 | 0.356 | 0.424 | 115 | 3.9 |
| Ian Desmond | 30 | SS | 0.246 | 0.302 | 0.401 | 91 | 1.9 |
| Dexter Fowler | 29 | CF | 0.252 | 0.350 | 0.390 | 106 | 1.7 |
Even the fits are tricky. How much will Ian Desmond want after a bad year? Has defense slipped to the point that he’s not an upgrade over Wilmer Flores? Does his lack of patience fit the team philosophy? If he wants to sign a short-term pillow contract, maybe the Mets can oblige.
Dexter Fowler, in one way, would be an amazing fit. He’d improve the outfield defense and take walks and show power. He’s got that expensive combination of good recent results and the right age going for him, though. He’s also better against lefties since he’s a natural righty, and that makes him an unnatural pairing with Juan Lagares.
Ben Zobrist seems like a perfect fit except for the age thing. Coming off of the best contact rate of his career and the best power of the last three years, he seems to be aging well. He could transition to the outfield if the Mets find another infielder by the time Curtis Granderson’s contract is up after 2017.
None of these three players will give the Mets Cespedes’ power back, but they could improve the defense and help the balance sheet in other ways. They won’t cost the same as Cespedes, either. They might even little money on the table to improve the team depth so that they don’t have to go get Kelly Johnsons of the world next season. And the rest of the missing wins will have to come from full seasons and improvement from the young players on the team — a not impossible idea, given that the Mets were younger than league average in the lineup and the rotation, even with Bartolo Colon and Michael Cuddyer on the team.
If you focus too hard on Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, you might feel that familiar nausea coming back. They were important to the 2015 Mets. But their production is not impossible to replace. One medium-priced free agent, a few relievers, and some growth and good health from their young players, and they could be back again next year. In which case, all the butterflies will have been worth it.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Reading now – that Colon projected 3.25 ERA/1.10 WHIP in 2016 has to be a typo right?
It looks like they’ve got me in middle relief. I don’t know if I’ll keep going if I can’t get a spot in someone’s rotation, it’s not like I’d be sitting out there at the winter meetings with a “will pitch for food” sign.
Although….
Colon projections? Grody to the max
Colon projections:
5′ 10″ and 330 pounds for 2016, and will look more like toad than a prince. Or maybe a cow chewing his cud with all that gum, or maybe a bowling ball…
It’s not pronounced like you think.
Yes, sorry, Colon is still pitching in his playoff role in that projection.
If they have a spot in the rotation for me, I’d be happy to come back for 2 years at $20 million.
(and custom-made batting helmets)
Tell you what, we’ll go 2 years, $16 million, second year vests if you make 20 starts on the mound, one start at catcher, or if you hit a stand up triple.
Also, unlimited soft-serve refills in the custom helmets.
I’ll be there for you.
… are you guys my parents ?
I’m banking a little too hard on all this, but I really want Dilson Herrera to turn into THE guy at 2nd.
And Cecchini to get called up in May or whatever and be above average at SS.
And Lagares to play like his beautiful, healthy self of 2014.
Herrera’s upside (in a couple of years) is a guy that plays a good defensive 2B with .280/ .350/ .475 with 20+ HRs and 30 SBs. I would put him on 2B and play Wilmer at SS knowing Cecchini may be a callup later in the year!
Invest the money on Gordon (if he is willing to play CF) and the bullpen!
Not one word on Dilson Herrera? Why would Mets bother with a FA 2B when they can just plug Herrera into Murphy’s spot?
That’s why I think Zobrist is the only 2B they might pick up. Flores, Herrera give them possible future second basemen. But I didn’t want to assume anything about the young guys. They’ll move their youth around to fit the major league team, IMO.
I want to want Zobrist, but we really need a SS more than a 2B and a CF more than a corner OF. But then you think about injuries, particularly David Wright, you lie to yourself a little and think Zobrist could play some CF, or maybe Granderson does…I dunno, I really just want Jason Heyward, 2 years in Caf and move to Right.
The issue isn’t whether or not Zobrist would be good for the Mets. Of course he would be. He’d improve all 30 teams in baseball. The question is whether or not Zobrist would consider signing a contract with a team where it’s unclear he even has a guaranteed starting role. I don’t see Zobrist as a good fit for the Mets exactly for the reasons you bring up – they need an SS over a 2B and a CF over a corner OF.
That said, it’s possible Flores might be able to stick at SS for at least another season if he is partnered with Herrera at 2B, with Herrera’s range making up for some of Flo’s shortcomings.
Based on what Herrera’s done offensively in AA (Conforto’s line at 2 years younger), AAA (138 wRC+), and a 97 wRC+ in the Majors so far as one of the youngest players in the league, he already looks like he has a notably higher offensive ceiling than Daniel Murphy. Once you factor in his defense, it seems like he will already be an improvement over Murphy even if he doesn’t improve on that 97 wRC+.
What about me?
What about you? You’re not better than Michael Conforto or Curtis Granderson.
Niese should be starter #5 early on, no? Unless you’re assuming he’s trade bait.
Yeah, bullpen and bat is what they’ll spend on.
That seems to be the most likely route. If the Mets are going to be especially cost-conscious, though, his contract has enough surplus value that they should be able to move him easily. Logan Verrett would be a slight step down in performance (going from a #3 or #4 to a 4/5) but Verrett will make 1/18th Niese’s salary in 2015.
Yeah, #5 to start. Moves to the pen once Wheeler is back. Instantly makes the pen a lot better.
How much of the 5 WAR lost can be made up for with Conforto/Matz/Syndegaard at a full season and getting better? I would assume there’s a huge chunk of it without even going out to get anyone.
I think the issue may be more what the Nats do than what the Mets do. If they backload an offer to Heyward, they can use the savings from Werth post 2017 to pay for Heyward.
My guess is the Cubs, Astros, and Mets are all back in the playoffs for the next 2-3 years.
It’s just despicable that we’re talking about a New York team in an uncapped league coming off a loss in the championship round in a season they were in the bottom third of payroll and we’re figuring out how they can dumpster dive and cheaply upgrade the roster.
Yeah, boo hoo…
I’d like to know which prized free agents not mentioned in the article that you’d like them to throw dumpsters of money at, who’d be a perfect fit and solve all of their problems.
That’s not really the point. You don’t have to be a screaming talk-radio mongo to think it’s messed-up that we’re **still** talking about the inevitable Wilpon budget nonsense right after their cheap and good-but-not-perfect roster made it to the World Series.
As Roger said, that’s not really the point. However, since you asked, the Mets could just throw money at Cespedes/Heyward, Zobrist, Desmond, O’Day and Madson and plug pretty much every conceivable hole and then some. If those guys combined to make $60MM, only then would the Mets payroll be around the $150M it was in 2009, and this would be lower relative to the rest of the league.
Despicable? Or brilliant?
The Mets biggest question might be Juan Lagares. If he can be 80% of the guy they thought he could be when they bought out all his arb years, he’s the answer already.
Yup. In addition, they may HAVE to keep him CF, at least for 2016. They just signed him to an escalating contract that is reasonable *if* you believe he can return to form. Combine that with the poor(ish) season and losing his starting job in famous fashion to Cespedes, and you have to think that his trade value is pretty much at rock bottom right now.
I could be wrong, but I tend to believe that 2015 was the anomaly for him, and moving him now would backfire on them. Instead you play him and hope he returns to ’13/14 levels, and you can revisit the trade question next off-season.
What’s the news on his elbow? He needs TJ if he wants to come back as our starting CF. Otherwise, he’s a 4th or 5th outfielder at best.
There is no new news that I am aware of. Collins said that one thing in June about Lagares’ elbow discomfort affecting his play, to which Alderson played down as just soreness…and all quiet since.
The need for TJS is total speculation by the Met fan community. Educated speculation maybe, but speculation regardless.
FWIW I recall hearing similar speculation from the Met broadcast booth this summer, not necessarily that he needed TJS but that it was an injury that he could play through but would eventually need to get taken care of.
If he isn’t having surgery, like, right now today, they’re mismanaging him.
I think they can get back. Matt Reynolds should be able to handle 2B. Take the draft pick for Murphy. Sign Uribe back up to baby sit Reynolds and back up David Wright. The lefty reliever market is a tad brutal, but the Mets need to get another lefty somehow, the bullpen needs huge improvement. Don’t re-sign Reed under any circumstances.
They should think about using the farm as trade bait now as well. Cecchini especially. You might be able to peel off one of the Red Sox spare OFs and a pen arm. Mets have a lot of SS prospects, trade em now before the shine wears off.
They may have a lot of SS prospects, but do they have any good ones? There’s a reason why they were out there sniffing around for them last winter.
They have a couple. Cecchini will start next year at AAA and I’m not sure where they’ll start Amed Rosario.
Matt Reynolds stinks and he will absolutely not be the starting 2B. Dude had a 90 wRC+ in AAA last year at age 24, he’s at best a mediocre bench piece. Dilson Herrera is miles ahead of Reynolds and he will be the guy.
What about Eric Campbell as a utility guy? Can play 2b, 3b, OF. He was awful this year, but it was almost all a flukey horrible BABIP. Was good in 2014 and good in AAA.
That’s a hot take right there. Matt Reynolds is AAAA filler. Dilson Herrera is the 2B of the Future™. The Mets should absolutely not trade Cecchini yet and I don’t see the Red Sox trading Mookie Betts or Jackie Bradley Jr. to the Mets, and certainly not for cheap.
“We might have to spend a little money to fill the fifth spot in the rotation. Maybe just bring back Bartolo Colon at a reasonable rate. Or maybe Zack Wheeler plus the farm is good enough.”
/Sniffles
Isn’t Niese the obvious number 5 until Wheeler returns?
Yes, he definitely is. Not sure what Eno’s thinking here.
Niese/Verrett/Montero is really plenty of depth at the back of the rotation against Wheeler gets back.
What’s the news on Montero? He seems to have fallen off the face of the earth.
I hope Montero comes back as a reliever.
The answer is yes, and this isn’t even a difficult question.
These are the most recent xFIPs of their June 2016 rotation:
deGrom: 2.92
Syndergaard: 2.91
Harvey: 3.24
Matz: 3.56
Wheeler: 3.49
So yes, it’s quite obvious that they can get back. Now, to answer some of the questions about the rest of the team:
1) Don’t count out the Mets signing a Heyward type guy to play CF. The Mets have real money to spend for the first time in a while after getting a ton of playoff revenue and Heyward is the perfect type of guy for them. Young, elite defender, great walk rate, not a second generation contract that Alderson has specifically said to be averse to.
2) The team as currently constructed shouldn’t be bad offensively next year, especially if they add a bat. The current team has a whopping 5 players with 2015 wRC+’s above 130: Granderson, Wright, Duda, d’Arnaud, Conforto. The main reason they struggled so much at the beginning of the year wasn’t because they didn’t have Cespedes, it was because of extended injuries to Wright and d’Arnaud.
3) I agree that Zobrist is a good fit for the Mets. They won’t go for a pure 2B because they believe in Herrera at 2B, but Zobrist can play other positions effectively. If they fail to sign Heyward, I can see them going the Zobrist/Span route to upgrade CF and 2B/SS.
4) Can the “Mets are cheap” narrative please die already? The Mets finished 2015 with a $120 M payroll and added more payroll at the deadline than any other team. Look, I get it, the Wilpons are an easy target. But if you realize that the Mets were a rebuilding team it’s hard to see how the Wilpons have actually prevented them from signing big-time free agents (who exactly would they have gotten during their rebuilding phase?).
P.S. Mets reportedly offered Cano a $180 M contract, so it’s not like they don’t have money.
Injury can always change that rotation strength, and they needed more bat to get better, as that run differential graph above shows. I like their foundation, but I think they do need to spend on a bat.
They’re probably right around the short side cutoff of the standard error range for a 90 win season (Which is exactly when you can most effectively leverage spending)
I agree, they do need to spend on a bat.
I just think they actually will spend on a bat, whereas everyone else just assumes that a big market team with a ton of playoff revenue and money coming off the books will just sit on their butt because #LOLMets and Wilpons. Which is nonsense.
I hope you are right. I think we will be good regardless, but we have a real chance to be dominant if we spend a littlw.
And the run differential graph doesn’t just show the Mets acquiring Cespedes, it also shows them getting back Wright and d’Arnaud and the Conforto call-up.
Saying that they need a bat to be good simply because they played better with 4 additional hitters (3 of whom will be back in 2016) is a false dichotomy.
I’d get a bat, but that’s mainly because Lagares can’t hit right-handed pitchers. Getting a 2B/SS like Zobrist would be a luxury.
Sure, but you also don’t just write those injuries off. Injuries are part of a normal baseball season, and overall I wouldn’t say the Mets were particularly unlucky in that front. Even if they’re not specifically to d’Arnaud and Wright, you have to account for injuries in your projection ledger too (and they are two of the more risky players on the roster). Overall the team actually had a pretty reasonable year in terms of injuries, especially for their pitchers.
So yes, the fact that Wright and d’Arnaud came back at that exact moment does skew this particular distribution, but they’re also not entirely biasing the data here either the way Cespedes and Conforto are.
Not if you have to count on regression from some of your old bats and modern aging curves don’t suggest that everyone improves linearly and TdA has missed an average about 50+ games a year for four years now. I believe this team needs a bat. They didn’t just add Yo anyway.
I can’t respond to MH below for some reason, but:
“Overall the team actually had a pretty reasonable year in terms of injuries, especially for their pitchers.”
is patently false. It seemed like they were healthy because they had so much rotation depth, but this team lost their #3 starter, their #6 starter, their closer (two closers if you count Parnell), and two left-handed relievers. You just didn’t see it because they have stockpiled so many pitchers.
Man Games Lost has them right around the most injured team in the league, behind Tampa Bay and way behind Texas.
http://www.mangameslost.com/end-of-regular-season-mlb-disabled-list-games-missed-and-tmitt-metrics-october-5-2015/
Heyward is the only free agent that would seem to provide a big enough upgrade to justify the money. I’m skeptical that Zobrist could handle short in his mid-to-late 30s and otherwise he’ll just tie up money and create a log-jam at 2B, which either Flores or Herrera is eventually going to own. If they can’t sign Heyward, better to look to the trade market for a defense-first shortstop and hope that Wright and d’Arnaud stay healthy and Conforto continues to develop. The collection of young starting pitchers the Mets have developed is extremely rare and they should be making only careful moves that position them to contend for the next five years.
How about Denard Span? He is a free agent, no? He can start in center and get spelled by Lagares against lefties.
The greatest troll would be to sign Desmond and Span.
There is no “Mets are cheap” narrative. It’s an unfortunate fact.
$120 M payroll in 2015 disagrees.
Adding the most payroll of any team at the deadline also disagrees.
So does the $20+ M in playoff revenue they likely grossed.
Ehhh, even if the estimated payroll for October 1, 2015 was around $120 million (and I’m not sure the estimate will wind up being that high), don’t forget they recouped $10 million insurance for the time Wright was out. Most credible discussions I saw had the actual net spending increasing very little even with the deadline acquisitions once you accounted for that.
Also, it’s not 2002 anymore. A $120 M payroll was a mega market payroll then. In 2015, it was good for 15th and even that’s a little misleading. They were closer to the 23rd ranked Twins ($106 M) than they were the #10 Blue Jays ($138 M).
1) The Mets did not actually pay that much in payroll. They recouped about $12M between Wright’s insurance and got cash back in the deals with the A’s.
2) I have no idea where you’re getting that “most payroll added” stat from because there’s no way the Mets added more than what the Blue Jays added in Price and Tulowitzki.
3) That’s still not even a top 10 payroll and nowhere near their payroll from 2009.
4) $20M of additional revenue doesn’t necessarily go right into additional payroll. Wilpons could just use it to help pay off their debts.
Dude the Jays also gave up Reyes’ contract, so that’s completely false.
JPG: I completely agree that $120 M isn’t what it used to be. I’m not saying they have a high payroll
What I am saying is that they’ve spent as much as they’ve needed to during an obvious rebuild without going overboard. Spending money on big free agents and losing draft picks would have been a dumb strategy for a team in the midst of a rebuild.
Overall you’re incorrect. You’re effectively arguing that because the Mets pulled off a long shot (getting to the WS with an unlikely team), their low spending was warranted.
What they got was lucky, and your argument will be “true” for any club no matter how unwise their spending, as long as they make it deep into the playoffs.
You’re confusing “cheap” with “not stupidly spending money unnecessarily during a rebuild”.
Would rather have high draft picks than just missing the playoffs, which is probably what would have happened if they had spent all along.
I heard the “most payroll added” stat for the Mets though I forgot the source. He’s probably right because while Tulo was added, Reyes, who is getting more, was subtracted.
oh, barf, i’d never thought about the mets signing heyward.
barf barf barf tomahawk chop barf barf
Heyward and Zobrist would be awesome additions for the Mets. A super utility player could see plenty of time at both 2B and 3B for the Mets (2B because of raw talent, and 3B because of necessary time off) over the next two seasons, and have opportunities at 1B, SS, and even RF. I think Zobrist fits the Mets better than Murphy at this point.
Heyward would just be flat out awesome, giving the Mets an opportunity to turn Lagares into a super fourth outfielder for the next two seasons, allowing Heyward to shift to RF when Granderson’s contract expires.
And for relief pitching, the Mets have some high-potential in-house options (as mentioned in the article) in Montero, Verrett, and Edgin. Bring in a veteran to round things out, and you have a bullpen that you should be able to trust the lead with.
Zobrist would indeed be a superb addition. The Mets will do well with this kind of high upside club, to put down a floor at as many positions as possible.
With this pitching staff and this many strong players, they need primarily to avoid giving wins back with replacement level guys getting too many PAs.
Also, I guess a lot of people missed it, but apparently the Mets were the best team in the National League in 2015 and made it to the World Series. With an incomplete team.
The Mets needed a great deal of luck to do that. What you’d like a club with this much talent to do, is to need as little luck as possible.
And, no, they weren’t the best team in the NL.
In the second half, they absolutely were the best team in the NL.
Yes, they needed some luck to get to the WS (Murphy = four-leaf clover), but what team doesn’t?
Would you bank on all of those guys clearing wRC+ 130 again?
It’s really not hard to imagine none of them hitting that number again.
I don’t think re-signing Bart would preclude the Mets from giving Niese a rotation spot, because I think there’s something to be said with the Mets going to a six-man all season long next season. With Harvey, deGrom, and Matz have all had TJ. Wheeler will be coming off it. If the organization is worried about innings strain, particularly after a deep playoff run, then why not go Harvey/deGrom/Syndergaard/Matz/Colon/Niese until Wheeler gets back, then replace one of the vets with Wheeler when he returns in July?
Eno doesn’t talk about this, but the narrative in the media that says the Mets need to move an arm to get a bat is insane. If that was the case, just shell out the money for Cespedes or Heyward and don’t surrender anything.
This season more than any will really illustrate exactly where the Wilpons’ finances are. Because like some commenters have said, there is absolutely no reason they shouldn’t be spending in the wake of that run. From ’10-’14, you could legitimately make a case for being fiscally conservative because they were in rebuilding mode. Now that they’re ready for prime time, there’s no reason not to spend aggressively to fill a hole.
Not to mention none of the high-priced guys in 10-14 really fit long term needs. The ones that did, like Granderson, they acquired.
Are people really clamoring for Shin-Soo Choo right now? They wanted Johnny Peralta but were outbid. Apprently they also made an offer of nearly $200 M to Cano, who then preceded to get crazy money from the Mariners.
The Mets spending isn’t as crazy as it sounds. It just requires you to have followed the team closely in recent years and not from afar, which appears to be how Eno and moreso other writers seem to be approaching it.
Eno is a die-hard Mets fan. He hasn’t been following them from afar, unless you’re talking about physical location. In that case, he’s about 3,000 miles away. Unless they’re playing a road game against the Giants. Then he can just walk to the stadium, but why would you be talking about the Mets playing the Giants? You’re confusing me, Noah!
But more to the point, I agree that it wouldn’t have made much sense to go after some of the better free agents. Ellsbury and Choo wouldn’t have made as much sense for them. On the other hand, they could have done better by spending a little more on relievers and role players, rather than relying on AAA players to do well in a limited role.
Is this because I said they’ve hinted at thriftiness? yeah, holding tight around 100m (I haven’t seen $120 anywhere. Cots had 101, the post had the number I quoted) isn’t what it used to be. And knowledge of the team’s finances means I just don’t think they’ve had the money to give Cano $180 million. Maybe they did. I don’t know. They’ve spent some. Not quite in commensurate with the market. And this plan has them spending $30-35 million so
Eno, normally I’m impressed with your work but this piece had me disappointed. I thought you knew this team and this front office’s strategy better than this. This is an Amazin’ Avenue fanpost, not a proper FanGraphs article.
Cots has $101 because it doesn’t even include the trades they made.
They finished the year 15th in the league in payroll if you include the trades they made.
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2015/
Granderson didn’t fit the clubs needs at all. He was likeliest to be at his worst (and perhaps without value) when the Mets were likeliest to be at their best. There’s an almost perfect inverse correlation between Granderson’s projection of declining skills and the Mets likely increasing development and talent over the four years covered by Granderson’s deal.
The Fangraphs community may discount character and clubhouse presence but Sandy Alderson clearly does not. This isn’t a game of robots exercising their “true talent”, these are men together in a clubhouse for 6-7 months at a time, and Grandy brings more to the table than either his on-field projections or even his actual performance.
The reason is Bernie Madoff, the Wilpon’s have to start paying their Madoff money in 2016.
Wheeler looks like he can be pretty formidable if he can get the walks down. That’s really his only glaring flaw. I’m pretty wishful of Heyward manning center field. Defense alone and actually having a fast offensive threat was something the mets were lacking. With Flores and d’Arnaud still being half of the up the middle, the Mets are going to have to go after someone with stronger defense at short.
Im guessing Dilson gets a look during spring training with the hope that he takes over at second? If that’s the case Flores really needs to improve the glove and the bat to stay a starter
“Im guessing Dilson gets a look during spring training with the hope that he takes over at second? If that’s the case Flores really needs to improve the glove and the bat to stay a starter”
Actually, no. If Dilson takes over at second base, it makes it easier for Flores to stick at SS because Dilson’s range would help cover Flo’s defensive deficiencies.
Young pitchers get hurt. Maybe the Mets’ group won’t, but that’s sure not the historical way to wager.
Old pitchers get hurt too, probably more. Do you have any data to suggest that young pitchers typically get hurt at a higher rate and/or longer periods of time than mid-aged pitchers, or older pitchers?
No, other than I read it at Bill James, at the Tango site, and so on. I’d point out your position doesn’t contradict it really, is consistent with the idea that pitchers get hurt, more so than pitchers. Making the Cubs a much securer bet going forward than the Mets. Age notwithstanding just for the sake of argument.
This idea that the Mets are building their team solely around pitchers is kind of laughable.
If you’re going to evaluate which team is a safer bet going forward, you might want to actually look at the players you’re evaluating.
Is Javier Baez a safer bet than Noah Syndergaard simply because he’s a hitter? Of course not, he has major strikeout issues and Syndergaard’s #1 comp is Clayton Kershaw (no, really, they wrote an article on this).
Bryant, Rizzo, and Schwarber are all studs. But it’s not as if the Mets don’t have their own young, talented bats. Conforto, d’Arnaud, and Herrera are all former top 100 prospects who should be good major league players.
The fact that they have such amazing pitching depth is clouding the fact they’re a team of way more than just young pitching.
Correct. They’ve got a nascent ace rehabbing TJ right now, actually, in Zack Wheeler. Wheeler, IIRC, was actually the highest drafted out of all of the Mets’ current pitchers, at 1-6.
Honestly, I second Noah’s point about the bats not being an issue. The Mets finished as an average offense in 2015 and I can easily see them matching or surpassing that in 2016. Dilson Herrera could benefit the Mets tremendously simply by taking an average bat and pairing it with average defense and baserunning; Murphy wouldn’t be missed much. The only serious non-solely-bench bat I could see them acquiring is someone like Denard Span on a one-year deal to platoon with Lagares or takeover if Lagares gets TJ surgery on his ailing elbow.
Because of where they are on the win curve, I could see them spending significant money (for them) on premium relief pitching. I would love for them to get Darren O’Day (again), mainly because I’m bitter about the Mets jettisoning Chad Bradford and Joe Smith without a thought. A strikeout heavy late-inning trio of Robles, O’Day, and Familia would be incredible.
Also, I’m annoyed with the “Mets are cheap” narrative not because I don’t think the Wilpons are cheap, but because frankly, teams like the Mets (and the A’s, Pirates, Royals, etc.) make WAYYYY better personnel decisions when they don’t have the luxury of overpaying players EVERYONE knows will never live up to ridiculous contracts. It’s a shame that front offices simply have the excuse to cry poverty to the media rather than flat out say “We don’t expect player X to live up to his previous level of performance in the near future to justify ANY long-term contract, much less the one his agent is asking for. ‘Nuff said”
It seems to me like they’re in a tough position, because there are different ways to go about it and they can all look pretty stupid if they don’t pan out.
One option is to stick with what they have, and use the extra playoff revenue and the off-loaded contracts to sign their core long-term. Dilson Herrera has put up about a win in his 49 game ML career, he’s considered a solid defender with upside in his bat, and he’ll be turning 22 right around Opening Day. I wouldn’t be remotely shocked if he has a higher WAR in 2016 than Murphy had in any year of his career. I also wouldn’t be shocked if his OBP was below .300 by year-end.
I don’t know details about Lagares’ injured arm. If it’s possible to fix it this off-season, then he can go back to being a 4-5 WAR / 150 games CF. Problem solved. Or maybe he’s a below average regular again.
If the Mets go that route and both players suck, then they look like cheap fools. Or maybe they go that route and win 92+ games, and they’re smart.
Or they can sign Foxler to CF (although DRS thinks he’s a horrendous defensive player) and Zobrist to play 2B. Zobrist will be 35 next year, and he’s coming off of a 2 win season. Fowler was a perennial 2 or so win player before 2015. That $30MM or so might lead to fewer wins than Herrera/Lagares. Or it can lead to 4 more wins.
If they do sign someone like Heyward to play CF for 2 years, then take over for Granderson in ’18, then they can trade someone like Nimmo because there’s no place for him. But who do you trade him for? I doubt they’d get an impact SS for him, but he’s too good to trade for solid bench pieces.
There are several routes for them, and most of them have plenty of upside and downside. About the only way to ensure a worst-case scenario is to pay Cespedes based on his 5-week hot streak. That contract will be doomed to fail.
You can just keep Nimmo as depth. He should be starting the year in 2016 as depth anyway.
If there is one team that would be convinced Heyward could play center, it might be the Mets.
I think most teams are convinced heyward could play center.
Are you counting on 5 WAR out me again?
2016 Steamer does think much of me either.
Will I even get on the field next year?
SMH
Count me in for 156 games next year. HA!
Given the strikeout staff, you can live with Flores at short. Herrera covers 2nd. If Lagares’ elbow is OK, find a platoon guy. If not, Span or Fowler. Commit an extra $5-10 mill to the bench, cuz you’ll need it.
Then if the young pitchers hold up, you’ll have deadline dollars to play with, which is a very underrated advantage. If the young pitchers as a whole don’t hold up – my bet – you haven’t mortgaged anything for that future date when some of them heal up, or your system pops out new guys, or the Madoff money is all accounted for and you can again act like a New York team.
I’d have to think the projection systems will favor the Nats again (just not as much as this past year). Given that the Marlins also have some possibilities, with the Braves/Phills in ‘miracles do sometimes happen’ territory, that leaves the Mets with, say, a %35 chance at the Division next year?
Figure half that at the Wild Card given the 3 Beasts in the Midwest. Leaves the Mets with a 50-50 shot at returning to the post-season next year. Sounds just right to me. With only the Dodgers having odds much above that.
Why don’t we just leave Colon out of it and give that BP spot to Montero?
He threw 10 innings in the majors and less than 20 in the minors last year. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a bonus for next year. You certainly can’t go into Spring Training counting on him.
FWIW signing Desmond, and most likely Span, would also cost the Mets a draft pick. I expect both players to receive Qualifying Offers.
Span will be interesting though. I would think most people would want him on a one-year deal to build up his value. But if that’s all he can get, then he likely wouldn’t receive the QO.
If he does receive one, that probably implies that he’s able to get a multi-year contract elsewhere.
Not necessarily. It’s not a horrible risk for the Nats to offer him a QO even if they think there’s a chance he accepts.
I don’t see the Nats offering a QO to Span. A torn labrum in the hip is a pretty big deal for a player who relies on speed. Add to the fact that he had other injuries prior to that, which apparently affected his defensive metrics. A QO is a guaranteed one-year, $15 million deal; that’s a lot for a player with so much risk.
Of course Span would take the QO if offered.
If Span receives the QO, he should probably take it.
I don’t think the Nats make the QO for Span. He’s a real injury risk and I expect the market for him to be soft as a result.
If not Span, I could see a deal for Jon Jay. He’s another CFer that would fit as a compliment to Lagares.
Can a Mets Yanks trade involving Brett Gardner make sense?
To play CF? Who would go to the Mets?
You mean who would go to the Yanks? I’m not sure. Youth. Maybe montero and a minor leaguer. They need to free a spot for Judge.
Zobrist is an excellent fit. He can play 2B, 3B, and corner outfield as needed. He’s even played shortstop. Especially given Wright’s health concerns, having a guy with his positional flexibility is awesome.
As for the other half of CF, that’s tougher. Fowler is a very interesting option, and I’d be OK with Upton for the right price. Heyward is intriguing…but I don’t see that happening. I think an offseason of bullpen depth, Zobrist, and Fowler would be excellent. Then pick up a few minor league guys to bolster the AAA depth.
I really don’t see the Mets handing 2B over to 22 year old Dilson Herrera. If they don’t strike gold with Zobrist (a bunch of teams will be fighting over him), then Flores is probably the guy at 2B and the Mets plug in a SS from the outside (Alexei Ramirez?).
Wonder if Neil Walker is really available. Sounds like it. I wouldn’t mind him at 2B… and Flores in the Juan Uribe role. David Wright is going to need lots of time off I would think.
Herrera has much better minor league numbers than Flores and already has a better MLB line than Flores, with a career 97 wRC+ to Flo’s 88. It’s impossible to see Flores ahead of Herrera at 2B.
Joe Gomes wins this debate. Rafael Montero is going to be the real deal. ya he was hurt, but he will be healthy. He has a really good future. Most posters treat him as an afterthought. Mets need defence and middle relief. They are rich in starting pitching. But if they trade Montero they are making a big mistake.
If I were them I’d do what they did this year; try to put up a competent group of players on the field, run the young arms, and if anywhere close to contention load up FA to fill skilled position holes before the trade deadline.
If their young arms don’t show up/get hurt the season is a wash anyways.
Hey, I said this already! Just in more words. So is that part of it good or bad?
Trade Plawecki and Montero to Arizona for Inciarte to man CF and hit leadoff.
Sign Darren O’Day and Antonio Bastardo to aid the pen.
Sign Chris Ianetta to replace Plawecki and re-sign Kelly Johnson to provide infield depth.
Herrera at 2B and Flores at SS to start – deal at deadline if an upgrade is necessary.
Why would the Mets do that? Plawecki by himself is more valuable than Inciarte.
The Mets don’t have any reason to trade their starting pitchers for a CF when they can just sign a CF themselves.
I think Sandy has said (and proven through actions) that he thinks defense is overrated, and he is not likely to let 5 plays over a 5 game series change that. If entire seasons of atrocious play didn’t change his mind, the world series won’t.
They are unlikely to make any major additions, because that’s not the MO for this administration. Probably explore the trade market, probably (as constantly mentioned) look at Zobrist, years too late. Problem is after the Cuddyer fiasco, can the Mets really risk losing draft picks, especially if they are going to continue to operate like a low budget team? Even if Murphy gets a QO and leaves, they dont get a first rounder, they get a comp pick.
They need to come up with outside the box solutions. Maybe you try to trade Duda for something, move d’arnaud to 1st, and stick with plawecki behind the plate. Use Duda plus to upgrade at CF or 3B. Why 3B? because you can’t keep running Wright out there. Its bad enough we are stuck with him for 5 more years, but if hes not willing to admit that he shouldn’t keep playing third, someone should tell him. Probably 2nd base, where his productivity would be very good and where his inability to throw can’t hurt as much.
But I don’t expect Sandy to be creative. I expect more low to mid tier signings, and returning pretty much the same team as this year, minus their best two hitters. They won’t sniff the playoffs, because their offense is shit, they are allergic to fielding, 4/5 of the rotation next year will be TJS survivors, including one who is just returning and one who blew past limits, their bullpen is wretched, oh and they still have Terry Collins. Despite the fact that he is a Fangraphs darling, Zobrist won’t help any of that.
There is so much wrong with this comment. Are you living in an alternate universe?
Not that I can tell, but maybe you are. If “so much” is wrong with it, why don’t you start off with the Top 2 or 3?
“Wright …shouldn’t keep playing third, someone should tell him. Probably 2nd base,…”
Pretty sure Bill James did a study of this once, just for shites and giggles, and iirc he did find one guy in the history of MLB who successfully made the move from 3B to 2B at Wright’s advanced age and without any meaningful experience at 2B.
Furthermore, you’re wanting to make this preposterous move with a guy with spinal stenosis.
It’s that kind of remark that has people asking if you’re in an alternate universe. You can’t know anything about baseball on Earth and make that suggestion.
“Wright …shouldn’t keep playing third, someone should tell him. Probably 2nd base,…”
I see this point-Wright’s biggest problem appears to be his ability to throw across the diamond, which appears to be painful for him, and also seems to be the cause of most of his errors.
2B is out of the question. A move to 1B might make the most sense (and it doesn’t seem to unreasonable to imagine him excelling there like an almost-Keith Hernandez).
The problem is 1) what to do with Duda then, and 2) where to get Duda’s power if we move him. I’d like to trade him to Minnesota for Trevor Plouffe, who is blocking Miguel Sano at 3B. Plouffe takes 3B, and Wright moves to first. For the Twins, Duda would play 1B or DH (with Mauer at 1B). Conversely, they could simply trade Duda for miscellaneous talent and sign Zobrist to play 3B.
Please specify. Was it the Sandy doesn’t care about defense part? “Defense is important, but so is offense,” Sandy explained to reporters. “We’re going to have to score more runs than the other team, so that’s a combination of pitching and offense. We’re mindful of the importance of defense, and the importance of defense to pitching generally, but given the fact that we think we’re going to have better pitching than most, it doesn’t necessarily follow that we need to have more defense than most,” he concluded. http://metsblog.com/metsblog/infield-defense-less-important-than-offense-to-alderson/
Was it that Wright can’t play third?
Was it that the Mets won’t make the big free agent acquisitions?
Or is it that maybe I am wrong that a starting rotation with 4 TJS survivors, a line-up with limited offensive potential, and a moronic manager is actually a recipe for success.
Also suggesting a shitty third baseman gets moved off third base means that “You can’t know anything about baseball on Earth and make that suggestion” must mean that every third basemen ever spent their entire careers at third base. Holy shit. I can’t imagine how cabrera and zimmerman are playing 1st (or that thome and bagwell played there), or when sheffield and chipper (periodically) played in the outfield. Didn’t all those teams know that they were living in an alternative universe? That they must know nothing about baseball because they moved third basemen off third base? I get that wright is 32, and that is baseball old. But Chipper and Zim got moved when they were 30, and regardless, teams move third basemen when it’s clear they can no longer play the position. Which was my point, which you didn’t even bother refuting, by the way.
You don’t want wright to play second? Fine. You think its because he is too old? Fine. But he clearly can’t play third, and because of his back, he can’t even make the throw. He needs to move somewhere. So, Jack Strawb, where does Bill James suggest you move a defensively inept third baseman that is 32? That you are stuck with for 5 more years on a contract you can’t unload and you can’t just pay him to go home. Where does he play?
I would say that, given that a rotation with 3 TJS survivors, a lineup with “limited” potential, and a “moronic” manager won the NL pennant definitively proves that you’re wrong.
When has he said that defense overrated?
You realize he gave Lagares extension almost purely based on his defense, right?
It took me two seconds to find this exact quote: “Defense is important, but so is offense,” Sandy explained to reporters. “We’re going to have to score more runs than the other team, so that’s a combination of pitching and offense. We’re mindful of the importance of defense, and the importance of defense to pitching generally, but given the fact that we think we’re going to have better pitching than most, it doesn’t necessarily follow that we need to have more defense than most,” he concluded. http://metsblog.com/metsblog/infield-defense-less-important-than-offense-to-alderson/
Google is your friend.
If you think that is him saying that defense is overrated, you need a lesson in reading comprehension.
What he’s clearly saying is that while defense is important, so is offense. Just because you’re a pitching team doesn’t mean you also have to be a defensive team.
It’s probably a better idea to invest in bench depth and the bullpen. The team could always try and pick up talent at the deadline if they are devestated by an injury and the youngsters suck. I’d try out Herrera, give Flores another shot and call up Nimmo to platoon in center with Lagares. Uribe as a back up for Wright would be nice insurance. If Flores sucks, Cechinni can come up and maybe flores or Herrera are depth guys.If that doesn’t work. I could see Rasmus as a fit in a platoon in center if they don’t like Nimmo.
Thumbs up for this one.
So you’re saying they don’t sign anyone.
Yeah right.
That kind of comment never make sense:
“Let’s reduce our chances out of the gate of being in a position to make the playoffs then, if we overcome our poor planning by midseason, let’s go ahead and finally get the guys to make up for the guys we should have gotten to begin with.”
That’s not the plan at all. The plan is to take advantage of the solid depth the Mets have right now and be able to adjust if things don’t go to plan. You never know who will be injured, who will digress, and it’s not like the mets have glaring holes where there seems to be no solution outside of the setup role and middle relief in the bullpen. This team should pitch better because they’ll have have Sydergaard and Matz to start the year, not to mention Wheeler coming back. 1st round pick Cecchini hit 317 with a wrc of 139 in AA at 21, Dilson Herrera has a 138 wrc at AAA at 21 and an mlb wrc 97. Juan lagares put up 3 war in 2013 in 121 games and 4 war in 116 in 2014. Nimmo is a center fielder who draws a ton of walks, former first rounder, who happens to hit they type of pitching Lagares doesn’t- right handers. All these young players have potential, all are major league ready or close, and I still haven’t talked about Flores who was about an average regular who still hasn’t put up an average babip yet even though it looks like he should. Zobrist is a 35 middle infielder who was only worth 2.1 war, had his worse defensive year and is going to command a probably a 3 or 4 year contract with draft pick compensation. Heyward is a great corner outfielder but as we saw with Cespedes, that doesn’t always translate to great center fielder. Also, aren’t we letting Murphy leave so we can see what Herrera or Flores can do anyway? Baseball can be unpredictable, you don’t know who will get hurt or digress so having solid depth, with the ability to take on money and trade talent mid season is a smart thing to do- it worked this year with a roster that stared out way worse than what 2016’s team should.
The Mets are in a position to spend some money for 2016, simply because they have six or seven tremendous players that cost next to nothing.
Kansas City showed everyone that you can win the World Series with bullpen depth, high contact rates, and a strong defense. My guess is many teams will try to emulate that.
SS & CF are the spots to make upgrades. 2B is reasonable also. Everything else is locked up.
CF: They should pay Jason Heyward his king’s ransom.
SS: Make a big trade for Xander Bogaerts? Otherwise, there isn’t much out there…
Mooky Betts plays 2nd and CF. That might be a great trade target.
Zobrist is on the wrong side of 30.
The Rotation has all the depth it needs. I’m sure they’ll find bullpen and bench players given the World Series luster.
Of qualified center fielders, Dexter Fowler is the worst by UZR of those still center fielders (only Melky and Kemp worse over the same period and both have moved to corners) and the worst by DRS since 2009.
How does he improve the outfield defensively? I mean I don’t get this. He isn’t anywhere CLOSE to a good defender by the numbers and when he really had to showcase range in Minute Maid, he had the worst range of any center fielder in baseball BY A FACTOR OF TWO.
I’m really confused as to how Eno could state that Fowler would be anything of a positive defensive presence in a spacious Citi Field outfield.