Capitol Punishment

After losing again last night, the Washington Nationals have now dropped nine straight games, pushing their league worst record to 38-70. They’re on pace to finish 57-105, and while that won’t make them the worst team ever, they’re playing like it.

Or are they? Over the last month, the Nationals are 4-18, which is pretty horrible, but they’ve allowed just 4.4 runs per game over that 22 game stretch. Their offense has still been bad, scoring just 3.6 runs per game, but a 0.8 run per game differential isn’t the kind of thing you expect when a team goes 4-18 and drops nine straight games. Using a pythagorean expectation based on their runs scored and allowed, the Nationals have played more like a .432 team over their last 22 games, which would give them a 10-12 pythag record.

The Nationals aren’t a good team, but they aren’t this bad. For those fans in San Diego and Seattle hoping to out-lose the Nationals in the race for Stephen Strasburg, have a little hope – progression to the mean is on the way. Washington’s the worst team in baseball, but they’re not a .352 club.