Cardinals vs. Nationals NLCS Game 1 Chat
| 7:39 |
: Hey everyone, and welcome to our chat for Game One of the NLCS.
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| 7:39 |
: Dan Szymborski has a preview for you: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-st-louis-cardinals-vs-w… |
| 7:40 |
: Or if you’d prefer Dan’s numbers in a handy chart, here are his game-by-game forecasts: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?seas… |
| 7:40 |
: Jason Martinez wrote about how the Cardinals built their roster: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/how-they-were-acquired-the-st-… |
| 7:42 |
: And how the Nationals built theirs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/how-they-were-acquired-the-was… |
| 7:45 |
: Ben Kaspick and I will be here throughout the game to chat with you about baseball. |
| 7:45 |
: And also very likely some not-baseball.
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| 7:46 |
: So we’ll be back to answer some questions as the start of the game nears, but for now, feel free to ask anything you’d like, and we’ll let the queue fill up for a bit.
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| 7:57 |
: Hi! New to fg.s. What’s the probability percentage on the scores page before the game starts consist of, and where;s it derived from, or from whom, what outputs?
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| 7:57 |
: Hey, and welcome!
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| 7:58 |
: The way this works is that we have two projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, that we use to project a talent level for each team, accounting for homefield advantage and which starter they are using and so on. |
| 7:58 |
: Then we use those and jam them into some arcane formulas that project a winner based on runs scored and runs allowed.
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| 7:59 |
: One thing I am not sure about is whether we are simulating the game a million times or just using a formula to come to an outcome.
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| 7:59 |
: I’ve tried both in building stuff, and they tend to agree very closely on outcomes.
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| 7:59 |
: I fully support head chatter Ben. Thanks for taking the time to do all these chats
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| 7:59 |
: That’s right– head chatter Ben’s.
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| 7:59 |
: How has Doo done against STL lineup? Nerves about no Hudson |
| 8:00 |
: Eh, he definitely hasn’t pitched enough for the batter-pitcher matchups to matter, but I think you’re right to be worried. The Cardinals lineup is predominantly righty and hits fastballs well.
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| 8:00 |
: So uh.
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| 8:02 |
: Here’s a silly thing I like to do, and full credit to Craig Edwards:
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| 8:02 |
:
Who you got?
Nats (66.6% | 46 votes)
Cards (33.3% | 23 votes)
Total Votes: 69
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| 8:02 |
:
Who you *want*?
Nats (58.2% | 46 votes)
Cards (25.3% | 20 votes)
Just watching some baseball (16.4% | 13 votes)
Total Votes: 79
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| 8:03 |
: What’s tonight’s hierarchy in the Nats pen? Doolittle > Rainey > ???? > Trevor Rosenthal |
| 8:03 |
: Hello everyone. Re: Hudson, I saw today (I believe in the Washington Post) that Dave Martínez said he’s likely to use Tanner Rainey in Hudson’s role.
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| 8:04 |
: The middle guys in the pen are much-maligned, but I think that Wander Suero is totally usable and am confused why he’s not staying on the roster when Hudson returns.
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| 8:05 |
: Like, does Davey Martinez have a prop bet going that he can make it through the playoffs without using Austin Voth?
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| 8:05 |
: Under what circumstances would Roenis Elias make it into the game?
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| 8:05 |
: My guess: extra innings or as a LOOGY to face Carpenter.
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| 8:06 |
: I’m learning a lot about the Nats pen already and none of it is making me happy |
| 8:06 |
: There are teams you *think* have bad bullpens.
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| 8:06 |
: And then there are the Tigers.
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| 8:07 |
: Then there’s a gap, and then the Nats.
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| 8:07 |
: Like, wow.
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| 8:07 |
: What are the chances one of Washington’s Big 3 pitches tonight?
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| 8:08 |
: I think there’s a decent chance we see Corbin pitch in this game |
| 8:08 |
: The other two, not so much
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| 8:08 |
: I get it for a 1st child or twins, but a 3rd child? Really? Semi-serious
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| 8:08 |
: I mean, I’m not here to legislate morality, but there’s a 100% chance I’d be doing the same thing as him.
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| 8:09 |
: Baseball is a super fun game, and it’s great, and I’m sure he’s great friends with his teammates.
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| 8:09 |
: And yeah, also he’s having a kid. I’d take time off from my work for paternity leave no question.
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| 8:10 |
: Take: Molina is one of the most overrated players in baseball. |
| 8:10 |
: This is an interesting take.
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| 8:10 |
: I think that some people overrate him a lot.
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| 8:10 |
: I think that his overall reputation is right around where it should be.
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| 8:10 |
: There are some things he gets too much credit for.
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| 8:10 |
: Clutchness, game calling (maybe?), mystical ability to calm pitchers.
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| 8:11 |
: But catchers as a genre are underrated, and framing is too, and that counts for a lot. |
| 8:11 |
: Now, if you’re talking about some yahoo online saying Molina is better than Mike Trout: yeah that is wrong.
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| 8:12 |
: Yadier Molina is the current iteration of Derek Jeter. He’s good! He’s not a messiah or something. He’s a great defender. He’s a below average hitter. That’s it.
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| 8:12 |
: Great way of putting it, to be honest.
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| 8:12 |
: If you think either of these guys are no-doubt all-time greats, you’re probably too high on them.
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| 8:12 |
: If you think they’re worthy Hall of Famers, you’re probably right.
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| 8:13 |
: Molina’s is complicated somewhat by the fact that the Hall has historically undervalued catchers, but hopefully he will start to pave the way for a ton of people who deserve to get in. |
| 8:13 |
: ANTHONY RENDON JUST SMILED WHAT’S GOING ON HERE
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| 8:13 |
: Glitch in the matrix.
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| 8:14 |
: Getting to watch Rendon and Soto on a nightly basis has been a blast.
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| 8:15 |
: Juan Soto takes are the best takes.
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| 8:15 |
: I’m still dumbfounded by the 2020 ZiPS projection for Soto, which has him ahead of Trout by wOBA.
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| 8:15 |
: Just a casual, not me bragging at all reminder that I somehow got Soto 16th (!!!!!) in the FanGraphs franchise player draft.
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| 8:16 |
: So Ben, if you think that’s crazy: Steamer doesn’t have Trout in it for the rest of 2019 anymore, due to injury, but it has Soto as the best hitter *right now*
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| 8:16 |
: Er, sorry, depth charts
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| 8:17 |
: Best nickname in baseball, nice start to the night
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| 8:17 |
: As we all expected, power pitcher Miles Mikolas with three strikeouts to start the night.
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| 8:18 |
: He’s had nine games this year with three or less K’s for the whole game.
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| 8:19 |
: What is average wOBA (or any stat really) on “barrels”?
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| 8:20 |
: Imagine telling someone in 2017 that Miles Mikolas vs Anibal Sanchez would be a CS game one matchup in two years. I’d like to see their mind explode.
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| 8:20 |
: Can’t remember a Game 1 matchup like this one.
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| 8:21 |
: This is a real non-sequitur, and I’m going to look into this later, but I wonder if we should consider the quick win-now model of building a franchise officially dead, after the fails of both the Reds and Mets, and the Twins of 2018. I think the best teams are so much better and deeper than they used to be, and you probably can’t really build a great team on the fly any more, honestly.
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| 8:22 |
: I’m not convinced; the Mets had some severe injury problems, and the Reds had some severe the baseball gods hate them problems, but they were both pretty competitive and easily could have claimed the second Wild Card.
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| 8:22 |
: I do think that teams are getting a lot more hesitant to do what they’re doing, though, because even if you make the second Wild Card…. then you have to win a weighted coinflip against Max Scherzer just for the privilege of playing the Dodgers.
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| 8:23 |
: It does feel to me like teams are looking at their projection systems and saying “okay there’s value in going from 78 to 83 projected wins, we might make the playoffs and fans love that”
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| 8:23 |
: But why bother going from 83 to 88
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| 8:25 |
: And that kind of sucks to me as a fan of baseball. I like it more when teams try more.
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| 8:25 |
: How big a difference is there between Suzuki and Gomes?
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| 8:26 |
: Not much. Glad to see that Suzuki is on the roster though after that scary HBP.
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| 8:27 |
: I wouldn’t call the Twins’ team building model a failure… They had 100 wins this year!
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| 8:28 |
: By gold gloves, is Ryan Zimmerman seriously the Nats best defender? I love gold gloves. This is hilarious.
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| 8:29 |
: Zimmerman was a great fielder when he was a third baseman! From 2005 to 2010 he was worth 60 DRS at third.
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| 8:29 |
: And around 50 if you prefer UZR.
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| 8:30 |
: Taylor is a good player- speed, some defense and power. Why aren’t more people talking about him? He’s rather streaky perhaps.
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| 8:31 |
: He definitely has some tools, but has been ~ 20% below average offensively in his career.
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| 8:31 |
: Cause his name is Michael K Taylor…
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| 8:32 |
: A .294 OBP, 30%+ K rate just doesn’t cut it.
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| 8:32 |
: Ah, it wouldn’t be the postseason without the announcers getting in a little gratuitous shift-bashing.
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| 8:32 |
: “They play straight up to make you beat them.”
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| 8:32 |
: That’s true, when teams shift it’s because they want to let teams win automatically without having to beat them.
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| 8:33 |
: Taylor has good speed, good defense, good power, and he swings like he’s blindfolded.
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| 8:33 |
: Ron Darling says Michael A. Taylor has a strikeout problem but “sick power” when he makes contact and yeah.
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| 8:33 |
: There’s been a lot of evidence suggesting that MLB de-juiced the balls at the start of the postseason…that seems almost cruel to do, right?
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| 8:34 |
: In Play, Gome(s)
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| 8:34 |
: Going to link outside of FG here, because this is a great article:
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| 8:35 |
: Yeah, the change in the baseball is hard to deny. I was skeptical based on the actual fly ball results, but Rob measured it in a far more precise way and found an obvious change.
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| 8:36 |
: It’s quite frankly shocking that they’d do this. It’s almost unbelievable that they’d do it on purpose, but also hard to imagine how they could do it on accident.
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| 8:36 |
: I think it’s worse than cruel, and yeah, the changes are hard to deny.
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| 8:36 |
: They changed the ball for the 207 playoffs just in the opposite direction
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| 8:36 |
: Yeah so you can see in this article, the change in drag coefficient is higher this year by roughly an order of magnitude.
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| 8:37 |
: Like it has just changed sooooooooo much.
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| 8:37 |
: Maybe it’s the chaos-lover in me, but I want to see a wider variety of baseballs out there. Some factory irregulars, even?
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| 8:38 |
: I’m picturing the feeling you get from a dead tennis ball.
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| 8:38 |
: Smash the thing straight on, bloop single.
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| 8:38 |
: That ground ball that came apart on its way to Pedro Alvarez is one of my favorite highlights.
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| 8:38 |
: So Fangraphs currently has the Cardinals with a 6.5% chance of winning the world series. That has to be some sort of glitch, right? With a 34% chance of winning the NLCS, that means Fangraphs gives implied odds of like 17% for the Cardinals to beat the AL team, should they make it.
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| 8:40 |
: I’m going to ask someone about this, actually. There’s some chance it’s a goof, but there’s also some chance that the way we forecast these things produces weird effects when teams of widely disparate talent levels play seven-game series.
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| 8:40 |
: For example, that system has the Cardinals as 34% to win the NLCS but Dan’s projections have them at 45.5%.
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| 8:41 |
: DE-JUICED BALL ALERT
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| 8:41 |
: Marcell Ozuna in play, ru-what the hell
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| 8:41 |
: They should just throw some footballs in there, mostly because I’d like to see Aaron Judge hit a football with a baseball bat. What would happen? What’s the best place to hit a football with a baseball bat? So many questions.
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| 8:42 |
: I just have to say…Pete Alonso was recently on a late night TV show and there is super slow mo footage of him hitting all sorts of fun things, including a football.
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| 8:42 |
: Crossing up with no one base. Classic October baseball.
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| 8:42 |
: I would 100% use multiple signs against the Astros.
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| 8:43 |
: I’m not sure I would against most teams.
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| 8:43 |
: Bunting is hard
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| 8:43 |
: Matt Carpenter is a great bunter – he’s perennially one of the most successful players at bunting against the shift.
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| 8:43 |
: It’s just, like you said, hard!
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| 8:44 |
: That’s a legit problem. If cameras are that prevalent MLB needs to do whatever to fix that.
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| 8:44 |
: Yeah so, I don’t have the link offhand, but an Astros staffer was caught during a Red Sox-Astros playoff series filming a series of catcher signs
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| 8:44 |
: Using a phone with a built-in high speed camera and machine learning app.
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| 8:44 |
: So uh…. guard those signs!
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| 8:45 |
: The Astros made it super obvious they were all over Tyler Glasnow tipping pitches last night. I wonder if that could lead to teams being even more careful than they otherwise would have been. Seems like they should have been less demonstrative about it.
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| 8:45 |
: Or, teams are already experiencing peak paranoia and it doesn’t matter.
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| 8:45 |
: Yeah LOL at Bregman making sure the camera saw him explaining the tipping to Correa.
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| 8:45 |
: He’s quite the showman.
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| 8:46 |
: Like, it’s not as though Correa didn’t get the same scouting report as Bregman.
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| 8:46 |
: …wait, a machine learning app…to pick up a handful of signs…don’t most machine learning algorithms require millions of input tests to ‘learn’ before they’re useful?
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| 8:47 |
: So Eric has gone into it on a few FanGraphs audio podcasts, and I don’t have the links offhand, but not really? Basically you film a lot of the signs beforehand to give it a learning database.
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| 8:47 |
: Off of the broadcast of their former games or whatever, it’s not as though they have infinite patterns.
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| 8:47 |
: And then it is very fast at figuring out which set is currently being used.
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| 8:48 |
: I’m about as far from an expert in machine learning as you can get, so take this with a grain of salt.
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| 8:48 |
: A guy on YouTube made a baseball sign stealing app. Fascinating watch.
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| 8:48 |
: Yeah Bregman seems determined to become baseball’s heel.
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| 8:48 |
: And what a delight it is.
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| 8:49 |
: I wrote an article called “Alex Bregman Still Has Another Gear,” kind of generic ‘this dude is really good.’
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| 8:49 |
: And he liked it on Twitter!
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| 8:49 |
: Like, his self-confidence is theatrical and amazing.
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| 8:49 |
: Too bad that Bregman is already the good guy in the minds of most of baseball fans because he’s up against Trevor Bauer.
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| 8:49 |
: C’mon, we all love to root for heels.
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| 8:50 |
: Did he contact you to discuss the article like Schilling did to Posnanski?
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| 8:50 |
: Man I wish. Any baseball player I write about, or who’s reading this chat, hit me up.
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| 8:51 |
: I am a baseball player reading this chat, although not a professional one.
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| 8:51 |
: Count it!
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| 8:51 |
: Maybe re-juice that ball, MLB
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| 8:51 |
: This is karmic punishment for him smiling earlier.
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| 8:52 |
: In fairness, he hit that to the deepest part of the park.
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| 8:52 |
: Rendon hit that ball 101.4 mph at 29 degrees…
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| 8:53 |
: Sup Ben?
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| 8:53 |
: So many Bens tonight.
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| 8:54 |
: If you’re curious, 75.6% of batted balls hit at that velo and angle became home runs this regular season.
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| 8:54 |
: Quick, everyone in the chat: change your name to “Ben” for 5 minutes. It’ll be a blast!
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| 8:54 |
: Someone tell Edman to shave that mustache
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| 8:54 |
: If you think that one is bad, wait until you see Dakota Hudson.
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| 8:55 |
: In cold weather, and with what wind conditions, and what spin on the ball. I’d love someone to publish the error bars on the HR models that predict HR probability on LA, exit velocity, and park size.
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| 8:55 |
: Yeah so, these all need to be controlled for, and wind gusts can’t be accounted for even in these models. That variability is why I was slow to accept that the ball has changed just based on results. But now that Arthur’s article has calculated a measurable and likely change in drag, the presumption goes the other wya.
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| 8:56 |
: Heyyyyy
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| 8:56 |
: Hooooo
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| 8:56 |
: I’m here for the 5 minute blast
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| 8:56 |
: Now that’s thinking on your feet.
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| 8:57 |
: Do they get to call up a different player to replace the paternity list?
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| 8:57 |
: Yes. Wander Suero is his replacement.
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| 8:57 |
: Oh hey
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| 8:57 |
: What’s up?
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| 8:57 |
: Sounds like we need more Ben-only chats. I’m liking these nicknames.
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| 8:58 |
: Hello there
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| 8:58 |
: This one seems would have worked without the change…
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| 8:59 |
: This is getting out of hand
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| 8:59 |
: PSA for skeptics: The reason people are making a big deal about the ball is not because of a grouchy idea of what baseball “should” look like, but because MLB’s lack of transparency is devastating for fan confidence. (They could selectively use juice/no-juice to help certain teams win VERY easily.)
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| 8:59 |
: Yeah, I think there are two arguments. One is the grouchy one, and plenty of people made that one. The argument that the lack of transparency bad just has to be true, and they’re doing themselves no favors with these statements that beggar belief.
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| 9:00 |
: re. Anonymous’ comment: I agree. I think Verlander even said as much; wouldn’t mind if they livened or deadened the ball, so long as they were up front about it.
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| 9:02 |
: Loving all these bunt attempts to beat the shift!
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| 9:02 |
: It’s entirely possible that the best bunter for hits in baseball is in this series.
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| 9:02 |
: Kolten Wong
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| 9:02 |
: And he hasn’t laid down either of the two bunts that have happened. As a big fan of bunting for a hit, I’m into it.
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| 9:03 |
: Juan Soto should be banned from bunting
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| 9:03 |
: Juan Soto bunting with the platoon advantage against a guy without strikeout stuff is… optimistic.
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| 9:03 |
: I’d like to see him take his chances and swing the bat.
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| 9:04 |
: I just can’t imagine having a .400 OBP and .550 slugging and deciding I should bunt
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| 9:04 |
: Wouldn’t that be pessimistic of him?
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| 9:05 |
: Yeah I guess he’s either optimistic about his bunting prowess or wildly pessimistic about his own talent.
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| 9:05 |
: remember when Trea Turner bunted?
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| 9:05 |
: Given his issues with hand injuries, I totally get it.
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| 9:05 |
: Feels like the chances of laying down a successful bunt for a hit is not much better than 40% anyway. The only difference is that a bunt leads to a .100 SLG at best.
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| 9:05 |
: The Nats still have two of the most prolific, though not best, bunters in baseball in Eaton and Robles.
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| 9:06 |
: At a 40% success rate, wouldn’t a bunt lead to a .400 slug?
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| 9:07 |
: Yes
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| 9:07 |
: So the thing about bunting for a hit is, there are two types.
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| 9:07 |
: There’s the kind where they shift and you just take a base.
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| 9:07 |
: And there’s the kind where you find a spot where a failure still does something good for you.
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| 9:07 |
: Runner advancement of some type.
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| 9:08 |
: Like, not with two outs, for example
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| 9:08 |
: Why is everybody bunting, what’s going on?
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| 9:09 |
: I think the guys who were supposed to be telling the grounds crew to set up the bunting might have accidentally talked to the wrong audience.
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| 9:10 |
: what’s the FanGraphs article-version of laying down a bunt?
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| 9:10 |
: I wrote an article about how Ji-Man Choi is fun to watch earlier this week.
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| 9:10 |
: Limited upside, limited downside.
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| 9:10 |
: Any article about homerun records this season would be a bunt.
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| 9:10 |
: Acceptable as well.
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| 9:11 |
: Michael A. Taylor is actually a guy who should probably bunt more. Just, like, maybe not there? With a runner on first and two outs just go try to hit a dinger!
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| 9:12 |
: These announcers are talking about how difficult it is to hit Anibal Sanchez.
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| 9:13 |
: And I can’t help but think they just say this about everyone who succeeds without throwing hard.
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| 9:13 |
: But that’s the thing about bunts, they’re not limited downside. It’s an out. You’re wasting an out. It’s limited upside big downside. A better example is an article predicting a player to suck; if you’re right, it isn’t that great, you still feel kind of bad. You’re wrong, you look like a total fool.
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| 9:15 |
: That’s a sacrifice bunt, right? If you’re bunting for a hit, the upside is a hit, and the downside is better than an unproductive out. Bunts relaly do have lower success rate breakevens (when done right) than regular hits. It’s just that people are way too willing to sacrifice bunt, as in bunt without the expectation that you’ll often be safe.
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| 9:15 |
: who’s the biggest retirement this year? (non-Bochy edition)
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| 9:15 |
: Probably going to be McCann. He’s not a Hall of Famer but Hall of Very Good for sure
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| 9:16 |
: CC is a HoFer likely
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| 9:16 |
: CC!
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| 9:16 |
: Yeah my bad. I forgot about his because he announced it so long ago.
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| 9:16 |
: CC is better than McCann.
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| 9:17 |
: Ichiro is probably officially retiring now at the end of the season. Felix Hernandez might not get signed. CC Sabathia is retiring.
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| 9:17 |
: Haha fiiiiiine Ichiro too. Ichiro has already retired as far as I’m concerned.
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| 9:18 |
: This might shock you; per fWAR, McCann has more WAR than Felix.
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| 9:18 |
: I also don’t think Felix will retire, but wow.
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| 9:18 |
: Odds that Cole Hamels retires?
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| 9:19 |
: Oh, maybe not 0, but 0-ish. He tried to get one last start in this year off the IL so that he could showcase himself for free agency.
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| 9:20 |
: Do you think teams would have given McCann presents? Do you think he wasn’t sure they would and didn’t want to open himself up to disappointment if he announced early and nobody celebrated for him? 🙁
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| 9:20 |
: This actually seems like a question for Meg, who is FanGraphs’ foremost authority on wondering about players being melancholy.
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| 9:21 |
: But I will say- Brian McCann was worried he’d have to fight himself for violating the unwritten rules of baseball if he showboated his retirement too much.
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| 9:21 |
: Final answer.
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| 9:22 |
: I did enjoy the mixture of McCann and Acuna on the same team. Like, I love everything about the way Acuna plays the game.
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| 9:22 |
: And I’m sure McCann hated every bit of it.
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| 9:22 |
: And that makes me laugh.
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| 9:23 |
: The Braves are a team full of fun players that also randomly had the biggest grump in baseball
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| 9:23 |
: I don’t know, from a lot of the things I read it sounded like McCann really loosened up when he went to Houston. Did he regress back to how he used to be?
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| 9:23 |
: Yeah haha this is mainly tongue in cheek at this point.
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| 9:23 |
: He chilled out on the Astros, and generally chilled out with age.
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| 9:24 |
: He was involved in the whole Beltran bat funeral thing.
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| 9:24 |
: He led the burial of Beltran’s glove!
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| 9:24 |
: Er, glove funeral.
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| 9:24 |
: what does “tongue in cheek” mean?
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| 9:24 |
: As in, I don’t seriously think he’d fight himself for showboating.
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| 9:25 |
: Is Adam Eaton a suboptimal #2 hitter? Would the Nats be better with Turner/Rendon/Soto hitting sequentially?
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| 9:25 |
: I just like poking a bit of fun at truly a great baseball player who has had some regrettable fun police moments.
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| 9:25 |
: I think so. He’s more of a throw back No. 2 hitter. I’d like to see more Soto, less Eaton.
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| 9:25 |
: Giles fought himself for not pitching good.
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| 9:26 |
: Audrey Stark wrote a great summary of self-inflicted injuries: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-modern-history-of-self-inflicted-basebal… |
| 9:26 |
: “He’ll lay down a bunt too” — I hope not!
|
| 9:27 |
: There’s a part of me that thinks flipping Turner/Eaton would be optimal. I get the idea of wanting Turner up front with an open base, but Eaton has a good OBP, and Turner has more pop. Turner gets his “lead off” situation if Eaton makes an out.
|
| 9:28 |
: Honestly, the margin between who is first and who is second (in terms of win contribution) is really low, and I think the Nats probably derive more utility from going R/L/R/L
|
| 9:28 |
: Like Ben said, I wouldn’t hate seeing Soto second.
|
| 9:29 |
: But if you’re going to have him fourth (which I am also fine with, fourth is about as important as second), I don’t hate Eaton second.
|
| 9:30 |
: Eaton/Rendon/Turner/Soto would be the way I’d order those four. Or put Kendrick third and Turner fifth, wouldn’t hate that either.
|
| 9:30 |
: Yeah if you’re willing to bat Rendon second and Soto fourth, sure.
|
| 9:30 |
: Why is third not as important as fourth (or fifth as I’ve also heard?)
|
| 9:30 |
: Okay so this is neat, I’ll try to cover it quickly.
|
| 9:30 |
: Think of it this way — the worst spot to come up in, leverage wise, is with two outs and no one on.
|
| 9:31 |
: That happens a lot when you bat third.
|
| 9:31 |
: Whereas second, you either have a runner on (good), or the chance for extra bases and to be in scoring position with only one out (good)
|
| 9:31 |
: Fourth, if you bat in the first inning there’s a runner on for a prospective dinger.
|
| 9:31 |
: And if you don’t, you get to come up with no one out.
|
| 9:31 |
: But uh, it’s not all that important. Lineup changes matter in the single digit runs over an entire season.
|
| 9:32 |
: You pull mikolas here?
|
| 9:32 |
: I would!
|
| 9:32 |
: Mike Shildt just let Adam Wainwright throw 7,003 pitches.
|
| 9:32 |
: So he probably won’t.
|
| 9:33 |
: I would too. But I don’t hate leaving in Mikolas. He’s pitched pretty well tonight.
|
| 9:33 |
: Is Soto grabbing his crotch in Mikolas’ general direction, or is that just a tic after taking a pitch? He did it after the first two…not the third.
|
| 9:33 |
: It’s a tic. But he’s very demonstrative.
|
| 9:34 |
: The best one of these, by far, is when he realized Josh Hader couldn’t locate his slider and laughed: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/dce2rf/juan_sotos_reaction_… |
| 9:35 |
: That little happy shoulder shrug kills me.
|
| 9:35 |
: Hasn’t been a ton of hard contact against MM, other than the 2 doubles earlier in the game, the last few hits have been seeing eye singles
|
| 9:35 |
: Yeah, it’s not that he hasn’t pitched well.
|
| 9:35 |
: It’s just that you want your best possible matchup against Soto there, that at-bat can end the game.
|
| 9:35 |
: And a lefty is the matchup you want against Soto
|
| 9:36 |
: Per Leverage Index, that was the most important plate appearance of the night by a fair margin.
|
| 9:36 |
: Even with as much as people talk about how well he hits lefties?
|
| 9:37 |
: Uh, yes. The idea of knowing people’s platoon splits after 346 PA against lefties (for Soto) is wild.
|
| 9:37 |
: Not only that, but he has a 120 wRC+ against lefties and 153 against righties
|
| 9:37 |
: !!
|
| 9:37 |
: That’s actually a big split. He hits lefties well because he is maybe the best pure hitter in baseball.
|
| 9:38 |
: But he does “hit lefties well”
|
| 9:38 |
: Haha well sure. Barry Bonds hit lefties well too.
|
| 9:38 |
: Doesn’t mean you shouldn’t use a lefty against him.
|
| 9:39 |
: What does “pure hitter” even mean, and why is the best pure hitter not Mike Trout? Is Mike Trout not the best pure hitter in baseball just because he’s great at everything else?
|
| 9:39 |
: Ah no, what I mean is, Soto might be the best hitter
|
| 9:39 |
: He’s not the best position player
|
| 9:39 |
: Because he is not a great defender
|
| 9:39 |
: But contributions at the plate only, it’s arguable that he is the best.
|
| 9:39 |
: For example, in our depth charts projections and such
|
| 9:40 |
: Trout is *probably* better, but eh, look, I just love Soto.
|
| 9:41 |
: I think if you have a good bullpen it’s an easy decision.
|
| 9:41 |
: Why wouldn’t that be reviewable?
|
| 9:41 |
: They just have some things they don’t have reviewable, and I think the general reason they ignore things is to not show up umps? I’m not 100% on why to be honest.
|
| 9:41 |
: This game is zipping along (esp. for a playoff game), and Anibal Sanchez has been awesome!
|
| 9:42 |
: Both pitchers have been great. Sanchez has that batted ball luck going, as does Mikolas, which is key for both of them.
|
| 9:42 |
: Sanchez also has great stuff tonight, even if he’s not getting all that many strikeouts.
|
| 9:43 |
: Juan Soto has a wOBA of .394. Trout has a wOBA of .436. Nelson Cruz has a wOBA of .417, if you’re talking about hitters with no other tools that would be this mystical “pure hitter”. I wasn’t saying that Soto isn’t great, I just think that “pure hitter” is a dumb way of describing it is all. It’s another one of those old-timey phrases that doesn’t actually mean anything.
|
| 9:43 |
: Yeah, that’s fair. What if I said the player who projects to provide the most value while batting? That’s what I meant.
|
| 9:44 |
: Where is my Chinese food? it was supposed to be here 10 minutes ago.
|
| 9:44 |
:
I didn’t know Kershaw’s game was *this* bad.
 |
| 9:44 |
: I kind of take “pure hitter” to mean batting average. Like I would never describe a guy like Gallo as a pure hitter, even if he led the league in wOBA.
|
| 9:45 |
: So gun to your head you’d place your bet on soto compared to trout to get a hit?
|
| 9:46 |
: Hm. Get a hit? Get on base? It’s unclear what I should be placing my bet for.
|
| 9:46 |
: That’s a batting average question.
|
| 9:46 |
: But is Soto a professional hitter?
|
| 9:46 |
: NOW WE’RE ANSWERING THE BIG QUESTIONS.
|
| 9:47 |
: Professional hitter = hits singles to the opposite field.
|
| 9:47 |
: Which one would you rather have? Soto or Acuna right now
|
| 9:47 |
: I love this question, and I’m not sure this year actually taught us much about it.
|
| 9:47 |
: They’re both so great.
|
| 9:48 |
: I think I lean Soto but I really don’t know.
|
| 9:48 |
: def acuna if you include contracts
|
| 9:48 |
: Haha yes net of contracts, it’s Acuna and not close.
|
| 9:48 |
: But if you’re asking me who will end with more WAR.
|
| 9:49 |
: I feel like the answer to that question has to be Acuna, because he has a greater floor due to speed and defense.
|
| 9:49 |
: Well, would you take Soto or Byron Buxton?
|
| 9:49 |
: It’s definitely a matter of degree
|
| 9:49 |
: Hey now
|
| 9:49 |
: Hey Byron!
|
| 9:50 |
: I think Dystopian Future’s point was in the context of relatively equal offensive prowess.
|
| 9:50 |
: Oh for sure. I just think Soto is a lot better at the plate.
|
| 9:50 |
: Dystopian Future is using pure hitterness against you!
|
| 9:50 |
: Felled by my own snide comments.
|
| 9:51 |
: Are Soto and guys with profiles like his more likely to age better, as opposed to more athletic players?
|
| 9:51 |
: I have seen no conclusive research about this.
|
| 9:51 |
: Should Sanchez be hitting here? I say yes
|
| 9:52 |
: It’s a tough question. Again, if you have a good bullpen, it should be an easy call.
|
| 9:52 |
: “So gun to your head you’d place your bet on soto compared to trout to get a hit?” i want to see this scene in some future gangster movie
|
| 9:53 |
: I’ve written or said “If you put a gun to my head and asked me x, I’d ask you to stop pointing the gun at me because that’s scary” more times than I can count.
|
| 9:53 |
: So as we have a commercial break here, which managerial position that is currently vacant would you most want to have?
|
| 9:53 |
: Since when have we needed commercial breaks to talk about nonsense?
|
| 9:54 |
: Give me the Cubs. They have the highest ceiling next year I think of the vacant spots, going to pay decently, and if you’re good at it you’ll become legendary.
|
| 9:54 |
: I voted for San Diego in the MLBTR poll.
|
| 9:54 |
: I think the long-term prospects of the Cubs are dicey right now but look, you’re going to be a manager, your real best case scenario is just to spike a World Series so you get considered a genius for no real reason.
|
| 9:55 |
: I think whoever takes the San Diego job is gonna look real good in a year or two
|
| 9:55 |
: That would be my number two, and was Ben’s number one.
|
| 9:55 |
: I wonder if you’d just be considered a caretaker
|
| 9:55 |
: Does this chat have a don’t-mention-the-no-hitter policy?
|
| 9:56 |
: Most certainly not.
|
| 9:56 |
: Seconded
|
| 9:56 |
: People were talking about it in the second, I just didn’t punch them into it.
|
| 9:56 |
: you wouldn’t try your hand with the METS???
|
| 9:56 |
: Nah, haha, one of my best friends is a big Mets fan and my wife likes them quite a bit as well, but ew.
|
| 9:56 |
: how many runs does matt carpenter lose the cardinals on average in a given game over Tommy Edman?
|
| 9:57 |
: If you’re ignoring Carpenter’s recent tick up in defense (which you should) and trusting UZR/DRS, about .05 runs per game
|
| 9:57 |
: guess youd have to factor in bader as a sub in CF too though
|
| 9:58 |
: Update: Chinese food has still not arrived. 5 minutes until I eat the cat.
|
| 9:58 |
: Do the chain of Fowler-Bader-etc. and I calculated it at .13 runs roughly
|
| 9:58 |
: (I researched this earlier today, which is how I can answer so quickly)
|
| 9:59 |
: With 1 minute to spare, the cat got lucky. For now.
|
| 9:59 |
: My wife just showed up with an Italian sandwich from a nearby deli.
|
| 9:59 |
: She’s great, in case you’re wondering.
|
| 10:00 |
: This guy really the best PH the Cards have?
|
| 10:01 |
: Honestly, he raked in Triple-A this year and probably projects well.
|
| 10:01 |
: But I wonder is Jose Martinez is hurt.
|
| 10:01 |
: .13 runs in a game, is that comparable to what he adds with the bat with a RHP on the bump?
|
| 10:01 |
: Haha so you’re just going through my article exactly!
|
| 10:01 |
: With an RHP, yes! With an LHP, no.
|
| 10:01 |
: Oh man on the replays, he really Tabata’d that.
|
| 10:01 |
: That’s what we call leaning in.
|
| 10:02 |
: have not read it yet… my b
|
| 10:02 |
: Oh I haven’t yet published it!
|
| 10:02 |
: So you are totally okay.
|
| 10:02 |
: Here we go. Sanchez had a 7.15 FIP this year against a lineup the third time, worst in MLB.
|
| 10:02 |
: Sneak preview for loyal chat readers.
|
| 10:03 |
: Wish more umps were willing to call it a strike when a batter blatantly leans in like that
|
| 10:03 |
: Well it was a ball. But umps have the leeway to not call it an HBP either.
|
| 10:04 |
: Wow…was he at second before Sanchez even released the ball?
|
| 10:04 |
: Did you know that Jackie Bradley literally did that this year? Stole second before the pitcher released the ball?
|
| 10:04 |
: Ah, but Ben, you have failed to account for the fabled “big game experience”. From what I understand every hitter turns into the second coming once they’ve played in at least four postseasons.
|
| 10:05 |
: Dystopian Future, my literal own father came into the comments of one of my articles recently trying to argue this.
|
| 10:06 |
: Sanchez through 6 (let alone with a no-hitter) must feel like a dream come true for Davey Martinez
|
| 10:06 |
: Davey must be overjoyed.
|
| 10:06 |
: This is everything he could have hoped for and more from Sanchez
|
| 10:06 |
: What happensnif an ump determines you didn’t try to get out of the way of a pitch? Out?
|
| 10:06 |
: They just leave whatever the call would have been.
|
| 10:07 |
: So if it’s out of the zone, ball, in the zone strike.
|
| 10:07 |
: Sanchez only at 75. He get the 7th?
|
| 10:07 |
: It would be playing with fire with Goldschmidt due up first
|
| 10:08 |
: Was your dad trolling you?
|
| 10:08 |
: I don’t think so. People just believe in clutch
|
| 10:09 |
: would any of their relievers be much better
|
| 10:09 |
: I’d bring in Rainey, but I don’t think Davey will, and I don’t think it’s all that wrong not to.
|
| 10:09 |
: The pitch count helps a lot.
|
| 10:10 |
: Has anyone ever tried to separate out third time through the order effects vs loss of effectiveness via pitchcount, or pitches the specific batter sees in the earlier ABs?
|
| 10:10 |
: So, yes. The Book tried to approximate this, and it was one of the earliest attempts at documenting the TTO penalty.
|
| 10:11 |
: They found no overall effect from pitch count, but that for individual batters, seeing more pitches in your first at-bat helped.
|
| 10:11 |
: Actually I think there might be a good Tango blog about this.
|
| 10:11 |
: One second friends.
|
| 10:11 |
: MGL, close enough.
|
| 10:12 |
: Nats radio says Rainey made a couple tosses and sat back down. Quiet pen.
|
| 10:13 |
: Sanchez has OPS against of .889 this year after 75 p…in 6’s before
|
| 10:13 |
: So, these effects don’t come close to being reliable in a year of data.
|
| 10:14 |
: But, he’s been bad third time through his whole career, and also all pitchers are.
|
| 10:15 |
: Well, I’d argue career splits don’t matter as much as he’s not the same guy at 35 as he was in prime
|
| 10:15 |
: Yeah, but if that’s the case, then you should just look at the league average.
|
| 10:15 |
: Which is…. wlel, it’s bad. I’d pull him.
|
| 10:16 |
: Speaking of late-inning bullpen decisions, how could Dave Roberts leave Kelly in even *after* the grand slam?
|
| 10:17 |
: He was booking some offseason travel plans.
|
| 10:17 |
: And then realized that the game wasn’t *officially* over.
|
| 10:17 |
: Do you feel better about Sanchez for another inning with a bigger lead or does that not come in to play.
|
| 10:18 |
: what a crazy bunt attempt by soto
|
| 10:18 |
: I think it could come into play. Could allow you to let him keep pitching until he gives up a baserunner.
|
| 10:18 |
: Juan Soto has now attempted two bunts?
|
| 10:19 |
: Very pessimistic!
|
| 10:19 |
: That was the Cardinals 4th IBB this postseason. Is that the right play there when you have teams like the Astros abandoning the intentional pass?
|
| 10:19 |
: Uh…. basically no, it’s not hte right play? I think they’re often okay in picking their spots, but I didn’t love this one to Rendon.
|
| 10:19 |
: NL isn’t completely the same, they walk 8th hitters and so on.
|
| 10:19 |
: But generally, don’t walk people!
|
| 10:21 |
: Pulled the string
|
| 10:21 |
: Yeah, and just imagine, Soto had the platoon advantage
|
| 10:21 |
: Remember, he hits lefties!
|
| 10:21 |
: In all seriousness, one of Soto’s few weaknesses, and it’s even something he’s already adapting to, is in-zone spin.
|
| 10:22 |
: “He hits lefties better!”
|
| 10:22 |
: Ooh snarky Ben
|
| 10:22 |
: They came halfway to a realization when they said “He just hits everyone well!”
|
| 10:22 |
: Never mind the fact that his slugging is 100+ points higher…
|
| 10:22 |
: It’s just baffling to me, like Juan Soto has big platoon splits!!!
|
| 10:22 |
: vs. righties
|
| 10:23 |
: Snarky Bens*
|
| 10:23 |
: This year, this freaking year, he hit .285/.371/.478 against lefties and .281/.416/.584 against righties
|
| 10:23 |
: That’s a 39-point gap in wRC+
|
| 10:24 |
: In Play, Howie Kendrick(s)
|
| 10:25 |
: Interesting subplot: how many pitches will the announcers label as cutters without bothering to check whether the pitcher throws a cutter?
|
| 10:26 |
: I think the bad Busch camera angle plays into that quite a bit.
|
| 10:26 |
: It’s truly the worst.
|
| 10:26 |
: But Ben, they showed Soto’s hit off of Hader on ESPN. And they showed his homer on Kershaw on ESPN. I’m pretty sure those are the only two hits he’s ever gotten in his career.
|
| 10:26 |
: “Cutter” is just the miscellaneous pitch bin to announcers
|
| 10:26 |
: Yeah. They called that one a “short cutter”
|
| 10:26 |
: Aka, I want to say cutter, but I’ve already used it too much.
|
| 10:27 |
: What happened to the Cardinals bullpen after it was so good during most of the season? It seems like Schildt doesn’t have much trust (not saying it’s misplaced)
|
| 10:27 |
: So you’re asking the wrong person, because I’m going to tell you it’s small sample size and to ignore it. But uh, it’s small sample size and I think Shildt should ignore it.
|
| 10:28 |
: In September, the Cardinals bullpen had a 3.38 ERA and 4.18 FIP.
|
| 10:29 |
: And that was with John Gant walking a wait-are-we-sure-this-is-right 28.6% of the batters he faced.
|
| 10:29 |
: Sometimes I wonder if this has to do with some soft factors. Like, if someone has a bad back or some blisters, Schildt might be more hesitant to bring him in.
|
| 10:30 |
: This is a fair reason to worry about things, but that doesn’t really seem to be Shildt’s issue. He’s not staying away from a particular guy, he’s staying away from everyone.
|
| 10:30 |
: Good god this inning.
|
| 10:30 |
: Anthony Rendon’s body posture there matches how I feel.
|
| 10:30 |
: Like, can we just get a move on?
|
| 10:30 |
: Looking forward to the three-batter minimum
|
| 10:31 |
: I feel like my “zipping along” comment may have jinxed things… And I apologize to all.
|
| 10:31 |
: Stupid Derek.
|
| 10:31 |
: And I would be in favor of no mound visits.
|
| 10:31 |
: No mound visits pleaaaaaase.
|
| 10:31 |
: It would do wonders IMO
|
| 10:31 |
: The worst offender on mound visits is still Willson Contreras I think, but Molina is a close second.
|
| 10:32 |
: The 2015 Cards/Cubs NLDS is about as tired of mound visits as I’ve ever been.
|
| 10:32 |
: Gary Sanchez is up there
|
| 10:32 |
: Yeah, he’s bad too.
|
| 10:34 |
: Lol at Rendon just taking his lead with his arms crossed
|
| 10:34 |
: I love Anthony Rendon.
|
| 10:34 |
: As someone who watches Contreras for most of the games he plays, please get rid of mound visits
|
| 10:34 |
: He and Yadi both like to do the “calm down the pitcher” thing.
|
| 10:35 |
: I think, though I’m not certain, that Sanchez is more often discussing signs.
|
| 10:38 |
: After that long cold inning, is it an even worse idea to send Anibal back out there? Is that a real, observable effect?
|
| 10:38 |
: I haven’t seen a study, but I’d love to see one.
|
| 10:38 |
: I do think that the cold doesn’t matter much.
|
| 10:38 |
: They’ve got heat packs.
|
| 10:39 |
: Rainey warming for real
|
| 10:39 |
: Good call, Ben — Rainey is up
|
| 10:39 |
: Good idea on their part.
|
| 10:40 |
: I think they pull him after one baserunner
|
| 10:40 |
: “We always talk about speed on the basepaths, but never speed on defense.”
|
| 10:40 |
: Wait, we don’t?
|
| 10:40 |
: Will be interesting to see what they do if he walks or hits someone.
|
| 10:41 |
: what’s more likely at this point? Nats no-no or cards win?
|
| 10:42 |
: Hm. If this counts combined no-hitters I’ll take no-no, otherwise Cards win.
|
| 10:42 |
: Sounds like a poll question
|
| 10:42 |
: I don’t particularly think Sanchez is going the distance.
|
| 10:42 |
:
More Likely
Nats no-no (41.5% | 37 votes)
Cars win (58.4% | 52 votes)
Total Votes: 89
|
| 10:42 |
: …Cards
|
| 10:43 |
: So uh, that wasn’t a lean in, I don’t think, but two HBP’s, woof.
|
| 10:43 |
: I would have Sanchez out here, to be honest, but I just don’t think that’s how Davey manages.
|
| 10:43 |
: Man on, left-handed power hitter.
|
| 10:44 |
: Of course, Sanchez got out of it fine, but I wouldn’t have.
|
| 10:45 |
: I really do love the announcers falling all over themselves to say how no one can hit Sanchez.
|
| 10:45 |
: I wonder why he doesn’t just pitch like this every time?
|
| 10:45 |
: Really reminds me of https://xkcd.com/904/
|
| 10:46 |
: Joined late… Are there numbers on Sanchez specifically the third time through a lineup?
|
| 10:47 |
: So, basically times through the order numbers show very little stability from year to year and very little long-term skill variability from player to plyae.r
|
| 10:47 |
: So the best thing to do is probably just to look at the league’s splits.
|
| 10:47 |
: Good pitchers don’t seem to have less of a penalty than bad, hard throwers don’t seem to suffer less than soft throwers, nothing like that.
|
| 10:48 |
: But that said, even without particular numbers on Sanchez…. Pitching the third time through is bad.
|
| 10:48 |
: It costs you a lot of expected value.
|
| 10:48 |
: How many runs do the Nats have to score for you to bring Sanchez back in 8th?
|
| 10:48 |
: Considering he’s in the on deck circle, I guess the answer is zero.
|
| 10:48 |
: Gotta be zero, and honestly, this is bad.
|
| 10:49 |
: It will probably work, because the Nats are likely to win either way.
|
| 10:49 |
: But don’ be a freaking hero.
|
| 10:49 |
: The two-run lead really does come into play here, because they can just wait until he gives up a hit.
|
| 10:49 |
: I still believe the third time through the order thing is much more fatigue than it is hitters being able to see your pitches
|
| 10:49 |
: So, check out that article about times through the order I posted above.
|
| 10:49 |
: They specifically looked into that and high pitch count vs low pitch count didn’t have any difference in aggregate.
|
| 10:50 |
: It’s not conclusive, because drawing conclusions is hard.
|
| 10:50 |
: But it’s very suggestive.
|
| 10:50 |
: Is keeping Sanchez in really the worst decision here? Nats have a terrible bullpen with probably their best reliever unavailable today… As long as they’re ready to pull him at the first inkling of trouble, this decision at least seems defensible.
|
| 10:50 |
: Look, they’re going to do it, and decisions can only be so bad.
|
| 10:51 |
: But it’s inviting unnecessary trouble. It’s wild, absolutely wild, to think that your best chance to get the next six outs is Anibal Sanchez.
|
| 10:51 |
: As someone with no rooting interests in this game, leaving Sanchez in is the way more fun decision, so I’m all for it!
|
| 10:51 |
: Oh yeah, it’s a better story by far.
|
| 10:52 |
: I do love stories.
|
| 10:52 |
: And Martinez is going to leave him in!
|
| 10:52 |
: It’s just, by far, not the odds play.
|
| 10:52 |
: Let me put it this way: when it was all hands on deck, win or go home, in game five against the Dodgers.
|
| 10:52 |
: Sanchez was on full rest
|
| 10:53 |
: And they used Tanner Rainey
|
| 10:53 |
: And Sanchez hadn’t even thrown 80 pitches already!
|
| 10:53 |
: I don’t really have a problem with it as long as they don’t leave him in there with traffic. As long as he keeps getting everyone out, why not?
|
| 10:53 |
: Well yeah it can’t be that bad as long as they actually pull him after he allows a baserunner
|
| 10:53 |
: Exactly
|
| 10:54 |
: The worst pitcher in baseball this year to the best pitcher in baseball this year doesn’t matter *that* much over a single at bat.
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| 10:54 |
: But it’s suboptimal, is all I’m saying.
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| 10:54 |
: Which they didn’t do last inning
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| 10:55 |
: Haha yeah I think you guys are a little over-reliant on Davey pulling him when he lets a baserunner on.
|
| 10:55 |
: Yeah, it’s walks and HBPs where things could get tricky for the Nats.
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| 10:55 |
: If you’re not going to let him go the full nine to have a shot at the no-no, why send him out for the eighth?
|
| 10:56 |
: That’s a great questoin.
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| 10:56 |
: It does feel like they just want to wait to pull him until he allows a hit.
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| 10:56 |
: probably a good time for cards to try for bunt hits again right?
|
| 10:57 |
: The real benefit of this is that you might entice the reliever to drill you for violating the unwritten rules.
|
| 10:57 |
: Bam two baserunners.
|
| 10:57 |
: HOLY ZIMMERMAN
|
| 10:58 |
: BUT GUYS NO ONE CAN HIT SANCHEZ
|
| 10:58 |
: That was insane
|
| 10:58 |
: There’s that gold glove 3B!
|
| 10:58 |
: That ball was raked.
|
| 10:58 |
: Amazing play.
|
| 10:59 |
: So Jose Martinez is here, and doesn’t seem hurt.
|
| 10:59 |
: Pretty weird, right?
|
| 11:00 |
: Arozarena is a good hitter in his own right, and projections love him, but I think it’s optimistic to say he’s better than Martinez.
|
| 11:00 |
: I think Mike Schildt might just be managing this postseason to troll you, Ben. Ever considered that?
|
| 11:00 |
: You know, I have two really good Nats fan friends and we keep talking about how well Davey Martinez has managed this postseason.
|
| 11:00 |
: And the world hasn’t exploded
|
| 11:00 |
: So anything is possible.
|
| 11:01 |
: that 2nd run was just huge in this game.
|
| 11:01 |
: Yes, for sure.
|
| 11:01 |
: Even leads, best leads.
|
| 11:02 |
: I assume they’d just decline a third run here.
|
| 11:02 |
: Well, decision time.
|
| 11:02 |
: Well, that was fun while it lasted
|
| 11:02 |
: Well, I’m glad on the Nationals’ behalf that that was a hit instead of a walk.
|
| 11:02 |
: Because I’m not sure they were pulling him if it’s a walk.
|
| 11:03 |
: But what a marvelous outing by Sanchez.
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| 11:03 |
: Davey Martinez did exactly what you said he wasn’t going to do, Ben. Say sorry.
|
| 11:03 |
: Yep, I think he really should have done it, and so I’m glad he did.
|
| 11:03 |
: Jose Martinez is the best pure hitter on the Cardinals today
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| 11:04 |
: Martinez has been really good these playoffs, and he also did the right thing here eventually.
|
| 11:04 |
: And I’m with other Ben.
|
| 11:04 |
: If Martinez was willing to pull him as soon as he allowed a baserunner, then it makes much more sense.
|
| 11:05 |
: Doolittle in, which seems good.
|
| 11:05 |
: What is the fourth time through the order penalty? Or is that just a massive survivor bias issue?
|
| 11:06 |
: Big survivorship bias issue, but if you correct for it (I highly recommend this article again https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/22156/baseball-progues…)
|
| 11:06 |
: Then it’s there
|
| 11:06 |
: If you pull your pitcher as soon as he loses his no hitter then you waited too long to pull him.
|
| 11:07 |
: I mean, I am inclined to agree with you, but I do think that Martinez was at least reasonable about it.
|
| 11:07 |
: Gotta be a benefit to perceived velocity going from Sanchez to Doolittle
|
| 11:07 |
: For sure, although Fowler hasn’t faced Sanchez in more than an hour.
|
| 11:08 |
: That’s a time guess, but that half inning went FOREVER
|
| 11:08 |
: Doolittle looked good, albeit in a brief appearance.
|
| 11:08 |
: Eyeball test says every time Goldschmidt faces Doolittle he crushes the snot out of the ball, so that’s an at-bat the Nats would like to happen with the bases empty.
|
| 11:09 |
: I wonder if we’ll see Doolittle start the 9th against Wong, and Rainey for Goldschmidt if Wong gets on
|
| 11:09 |
: Or Rainey either way?
|
| 11:09 |
: They should just pull Doolittle for Rainey regardless I think.
|
| 11:09 |
: Don’t let Goldschmidt and Ozuna face a lefty.
|
| 11:09 |
: Especially given that it doesn’ seem like they think Doolittle is an elite closer anymore.
|
| 11:10 |
: (His stats this year would also agree)
|
| 11:11 |
: One of the huge benefits of Sanchez going so deep is that you can get good matchups without having to go deep into the pen.
|
| 11:11 |
: Might as well take advantage of it.
|
| 11:11 |
: There’s no such thing as a bad pitcher, there are just guys with large first time through the order penalties
|
| 11:12 |
: “Webb gets both lefties and righties out.”
|
| 11:12 |
: Is an interesting take.
|
| 11:13 |
: For a guy who, again, is WAY better against lefties than he is against righties.
|
| 11:13 |
: .316 wOBA against righties, .267 against lefties.
|
| 11:14 |
: That is, you guessed it, much larger than the major league average platoon split for left-handed pitchers.
|
| 11:14 |
: “He gets both lefties and righties out, but at different rates”
|
| 11:14 |
: Well, he *does* get righties out… Just not as often!
|
| 11:14 |
: I just don’t like when they’re intentionally misleading like that.
|
| 11:15 |
: It’s less true for Webb and Soto than it is for most players in baseball.
|
| 11:15 |
: If you’re going to say that, why not say it for *every* baseball player.
|
| 11:15 |
: I haven’t given up my campaign for robo announcers
|
| 11:16 |
: It’s funny, there is a pitcher who will pitch in this NLCS who really does have almost no platoon split
|
| 11:16 |
: (Daniel Hudson)
|
| 11:16 |
: Hopefully the Statcast broadcast becomes more of a thing.
|
| 11:17 |
: OF COURSE he Ks the righty then gives up a hit to the lefty
|
| 11:17 |
: Soto hits lefties!
|
| 11:18 |
: 
|
| 11:19 |
: Do you think Rendon has a chance to hit in Busch Stadium 70-80 times next year?
|
| 11:19 |
: I don’t think so, to be honest. That’s just not a very Cardinals thing to do.
|
| 11:19 |
: They’re re-signers, not free agent acquirers.
|
| 11:20 |
: This is why certain people have so much trouble embracing sabermetrics… Like, obviously Ben is right about all of this, but there are just so many scenarios like these to cherry pick and use as evidence against “stats”!
|
| 11:20 |
: Indeed. It’s the curse of availability heuristic. Like, over the course of the season, Soto hit righties something like 18% better than lefties.
|
| 11:21 |
: But in a single at-bat that’s like, what, an extra few percent chance of some good outcomes?
|
| 11:21 |
: “Mercurial” is not an adjective you want used to describe your closer
|
| 11:21 |
: Unless they are using it wrong and mean fast.
|
| 11:21 |
: What. IBB to Kendrick with 2 outs!??
|
| 11:21 |
: Yeah—huh??
|
| 11:22 |
: How bad is this intentional walk? I’d argue not so bad!
|
| 11:22 |
: If Kendrick scores the Cardinals aren’t winning.
|
| 11:23 |
: But Kendrick vs. Zimmerman?
|
| 11:23 |
: Is there that much of a difference?
|
| 11:23 |
: 1-0 vs. 0-0 though.
|
| 11:23 |
: I mean, I probably would have thrown a few sliders to see if he’d swing.
|
| 11:23 |
: Seriously though Kendrick is far superior to Zimmerman.
|
| 11:23 |
: Depending on what you mean by far, I agree.
|
| 11:23 |
: I think this walk might actually increase the Cardinals’ chances of winning, which is not something I say about many intentional walks.
|
| 11:23 |
: Why not just intentionally walk the bases loaded to get to no-bat Taylor then
|
| 11:24 |
: Well it had been 0 pitches since a wild pitch.
|
| 11:24 |
: So that probably doesn’t feel great.
|
| 11:24 |
: I don’t think you want Martinez throwing chase sliders. They’ll end up at the backstop.
|
| 11:24 |
: So, at some point I’ll try to run the math on that IBB
|
| 11:24 |
: But my guess is it’s excellent.
|
| 11:24 |
: And by excellent, I mean an IBB that doesn’t lower win expectancy
|
| 11:24 |
: (that’s about as good as they can get)
|
| 11:25 |
: Did not realize quite how good Kendrick has been this year. Goodness.
|
| 11:26 |
: So…9th inning lead for the Nats with a two-run lead over the Cardinals in the postseason. Who remembers the last time that happened?
|
| 11:26 |
: So, by the math, Kendrick needs to project about 14 points of wOBA better than Zim to break even.
|
| 11:27 |
: He both does project better than that, and was MUCH better than that in the regular season
|
| 11:27 |
: And that doesn’t account for the 1-0 count.
|
| 11:27 |
: Good IBB!
|
| 11:27 |
: Are the Nats the tougher match-up for the remaining AL teams?
|
| 11:27 |
: Yes
|
| 11:28 |
: Yeah not close.
|
| 11:28 |
: The Cardinals kinda suck, as playoff teams go.
|
| 11:28 |
: Which is to say, they’re still quite good.
|
| 11:28 |
: Question for the chat, which I won’t put to a poll because it’s the ninth
|
| 11:29 |
: Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin would be tough, even for the Astros or Yankees.
|
| 11:29 |
: Do you think that it’s worth avoiding Rainey, even if he’s a better matchup on average, because there’s a chance he doesn’t ‘have it’ tonight?
|
| 11:29 |
: Whereas Doolittle has successfully not looked awful?
|
| 11:30 |
: Just like with Sanchez, I don’t hate just sticking with Doolittle as long as he keeps getting people out.
|
| 11:30 |
: Actually, I think there’s another point in there, which is that Rainey walks far more batters. You don’t want to give any free passes in a two-run game. Give up a homer, oh well. WALK a guy, uh oh. Walk is as good as a homer here, basically.
|
| 11:30 |
: Yes, definitely. Rainey is a walk machine.
|
| 11:30 |
: I’d say similar situation to Sanchez at the end there… Let Doolittle go until a runner gets on.
|
| 11:31 |
: Thg power of even run leads!
|
| 11:31 |
: Nah. There’s no way to know that ahead of time. Gotta go with the numbers.
|
| 11:31 |
: I’m very interested in this question actually. The idea of ‘having it’ is definitely something my heart believes.
|
| 11:31 |
: And it becomes a much different question in a one-run game.
|
| 11:32 |
: I’ve heard announcers say they don’t like the opener or bullpening games cause that means more opportunities for pitchers to not “have it”
|
| 11:32 |
: Yeah so I really honestly don’t know if this is a thing.
|
| 11:32 |
: And I want to know.
|
| 11:32 |
: Like, would you do better to play nine guys with .300 wOBA allowed projections
|
| 11:33 |
: or one guy for 6 who allows a .300 wOBA and then three guys for three with the same
|
| 11:33 |
: That’s the ballgame folks.
|
| 11:33 |
: As it turns out, the even run lead didn’t matter in the end, but Anibal Sanchez’s mastery did.
|
| 11:33 |
: The idea that using too many releivers will result in one of them being a dud is just the gambler’s fallacy
|
| 11:34 |
: So it could be!
|
| 11:34 |
: But it could also be real!
|
| 11:34 |
: Thanks for chatting, Bens
|
| 11:34 |
: Great talking with you guys.
|
| 11:34 |
: That was fun. Thank you all for chatting with us.
|
| 11:34 |
: My anger at the announcers hopefully didn’t detract too much from the game.
|
| 11:34 |
: Are there chats tomorrow?
|
| 11:34 |
: There is an ALCS chat.
|
| 11:35 |
: We won’t be covering the NLCS again until the if necessaries, I believe.
|
| 11:35 |
: You seemed very angry at Anibal Sanchez all game Ben (C).
|
| 11:35 |
: Haha nothing against him.
|
| 11:35 |
: Or not at him, but at the idea of him.
|
| 11:35 |
: Yeah, I don’t like the ‘suddenly unhittable’ narrative
|
| 11:35 |
: I think he’s maybe the best fourth starter in baseball.
|
| 11:36 |
: Alright, I think we’re going to call it here. Have a great night everyone, and enjoy Dan and crew for the ALCS tomorrow.
|
| 11:37 |
: Thanks for chatting Ben & Ben!
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.