Knock on wood, I certainly hope so. This piece isn’t about sending a tribute to the area, rather it is a discussion of the composition of the minor leagues and those who reach the major leagues.

While this article became a study of a the California League’s population, the concept began when I was thinking about Jake Lamb’s prospect status. Lamb signed with the Diamondbacks last June and I stumbled upon him during his first Spring Training with the club — he ranked among the 10 best prospects I saw in Arizona. Intrigued, I followed his injury-riddled season closely and thought he would never garner the attention I believed he deserved because of his old age and collegiate pedigree (though, Hulet ranked him higher than anyone else this off season!).  Suddenly, I found myself buried in Excel attempting to discover what Jake Lamb’s chances were to become a major leaguer.

Statistical studies of prospects are difficult because the minor leagues are vast and rife with variables and failure. There are 189 teams across 16 full-season, short season and rookie leagues, each stocked with talent that may never make a major league 25-man roster. With over 5,000 minor leaguers vying for 750 MLB roster spots it can be easier to study the successes.

Studying only the players who reach the major leagues may be easier, but often such studies snag on “survivorship bias.” Survivorship bias may be present when a study’s population consists of a select group amongst a larger class. If one is going to study success, it’s wise to study failure too. For a demonstration of survivorship bias, read Dave Cameron’s post on The Value of Hunter Pence.

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Watch Austin Wilson do anything on the field and you’re struck by his athleticism. Six-foot-five, 244 pounds of muscle, he glides across center field in the Sunken Diamond on defense. During batting practice, no bat makes a more satisfying sound than his.

But with parents that hold multiple degrees from MIT, Harvard and Stanford, obviously the Stanford center fielder is more than a collection of high-end body parts. In fact, his makeup could go a long way toward smoothing out the wrinkles in his game as he proceeds to the professional leagues. It has already helped.

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When Stanford right-hander Mark Appel began his free-fall from the top spot to the eighth-overall selection due to signability concerns, many pointed to the new draft rules agreed upon in the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement as the culprit.

The new draft rules call for each pick in the first ten rounds to have a monetary value. The draft budget for each team is the combined value of their respective draft picks in the first ten rounds. By now, most following the draft are aware that penalties exist for exceeding the draft budget — first a tax, then the loss of future draft picks. The catch is, though, that any unsigned pick in the first ten rounds costs that team the corresponding budget money allotted to that specific pick, and any bonus greater than $100,000 after the tenth round still counts toward the overall draft budget.

Thus, Mark Appel fell to the number eight slot held by the Pittsburgh Pirates because teams felt the Stanford pitcher would demand too much of their budget, and the worst scenario for any team would be that the two sides failed to come to an agreement. Little would happen to Appel. He would simply return to Stanford for his senior year and return for the 2013 Draft. Though for the major league team, they would not only throw away a first-round pick, but also forfeit a huge portion of their draft budget, which would handcuff their options in remaining rounds.

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This year, talk of Stanford baseball has centered mostly around two top-end talents in Mark Appel and Stephen Piscotty. The first is considered a lock for the first pick on campus, and the second is coveted for his patience and power even if he falls to the second round. Both players played their parts in their schools’ weekend wins this weekend in the College World Series regional, but they weren’t alone. Perhaps the most striking aspect of this Stanford team is the depth that powered them to three straight wins over regional baseball powers Pepperdine and Fresno State.

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Diekroeger dealing. Photo courtesy Stanford Athletics.

In 2009, Menlo High School shortstop Kenny Diekroeger was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the second round and was reportedly offered just over a million dollars to join the organization. He chose Stanford and stayed close to his Northern California roots. Most players, when faced with a similar choice, follow suit.

Diekroeger has no regrets. And he thinks this season has been just fine, too. Talk to the shortstop for even a few minutes, and you’ll realize he’s got an even-keeled outlook.

“Maybe it’s too bad that I didn’t get to see a different part of the country,” he admits, but we agreed he has a lot of life left to live, and it’s nice to do laundry at home, even if “that doesn’t actually happen as often you might think.” This Burlingame, Woodside and Menlo Park raised local felt that “it’s hard to turn down Stanford,” and “this place is so nice” and that he’s really enjoyed his time on the farm.

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Late in a conversation with Stanford ace Mark Appel, talk drifted to the use of advanced stats in the college game. What kind of statistical analysis was he familiar with? How much did the coaching staff give players to think about? Was he up-to-date on recent research?

“Oh, dunno much about that, but Dean Stotz usually has a page of information for us,” the right-hander told me. “It’s pretty intense.”

Stotz’s name might not be familiar to most baseball fans. After all, coach Mark Marquess is the face of the Stanford program -— as he has been for the past 34 years. But every year for more than three decades, Stotz has been at Marquess’ side. Though he’s listed as the hitting instructor, third base coach, erstwhile pitching coach and current primary recruiting coordinator, Stotz has perhaps a less-formal -— but another highly important -— title: dean of stats.

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Baseball has now returned for slightly over a week. Early storylines abound — such as Matt Kemp and the Dodgers starting the season 9-1 and the Los Angeles Angels struggling out of the gate — but as the next three or four weeks come to pass, more and more attention will shift to the MLB Draft.

Will the Houston Astros take prep outfielder Byron Buxton number one overall, or will they go the collegiate route and select right-hander Mark Appel? How far will right-hander Lucas Giolito fall after his spring injury? Which player does your favorite team covet in the first round?

All of those questions lack clear answers at this point. However, collegiate games are being played around the country, and the more high-profile players continue to take center stage amongst scouts and baseball fans alike.

Here are how some of the top draft-eligible collegiate players are performing this spring:

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It’s the seventh inning of the first game in the opening series of the year. At about 55 degrees, the clear Palo Alto night is brisk but comfortable. Top prospect Mark Appel has held No. 10 Vanderbilt to one run on two hits so far, including four no-hit innings to start his season on the right foot. His top-rated Stanford squad is ahead comfortably after a home run by fellow Major-League prospect Stephen Piscotty and an inside-the-park home run from infielder-turned-catcher Eric Smith. With one out, an Appel changeup gets taken all the way to the wall for a long out.

Coach Mark Marquess heads to the mound for a conversation — his pitcher looks a little gassed. His Friday Night Starter shakes his head repeatedly, affirming that he’s fine. Marquess makes his way back to the dugout.

A groan erupts on social networks and in the crowd of scouts behind home plate. Even after a few more long fly-ball outs, the sentiment remains. Why should the Cardinal leave their ace out there in a game that is well in hand?

Because it was important to the Stanford ace.

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Finding a competent pro catcher from the collegiate ranks is harder than you might think. Only 10 out of the 30 projected 2012 starting catchers at the MLB level came from a college program. The majority of the backstops came from the international market or the prep ranks. Those 10 players are:

Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers, Louisiana at Lafayette, (3rd round)
Chris Snyder, Houston Astros, U Houston (2nd)
Nick Hundley, San Diego Padres, U Arizona (2nd)
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants, Florida State U (1st)
Tim Federowicz, Los Angeles Dodgers, U North Carolina 7th
Chris Iannetta, Los Angeles Angels, U North Carolina (4th)
Kurt Suzuki, Oakland Athletics, Cal State (4th)
J.P. Arencibia, Toronto Blue Jays, U Tennessee (1st)
Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles, Georgia Tech (1st)
Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers, U Alabama (5th)

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On Monday, we recapped some highlights from top college pitching prospects who are going to be in the 2012 MLB draft (and potentially, on your favorite baseball-ling team!). A reminder to give @KendallRogersPG and @aaronfitt a follow on Twitter for live updates of top college prospects.

Today, we’ll take a look at the notable batting performances from the past week, ranked approximately by 2012 batting prospect you most need to know about. Each performance is accompanied by a quick scouting report of the batter’s profile, courtesy of FanGraphs’ own Mark Anderson (you can read more of his work at Baseball Prospect Nation as well as his post from yesterday):

C Mike Zunino, Florida (6-2, 215 lbs)
.474/.565/.895 in 23 PAs with 2 HRs
Zunino had a great first week to the season and could be the second college hitter picked in the draft. He has a good catcher’s build and is a plus defender as well. Zunino also credited a shortened stride in his swing that helped him hit two home runs against Bethune-Cookman on Tuesday. And after hitting .371/.442/.674 with 19 home runs last season, he is expecting that teams will pitch him outside of the strike zone more. “I know I’m going to get pitched there most of the year,” Zunino said. “I just got too antsy this weekend and was able to sit back in my stance [Tuesday] and get a couple pitches I can drive.”

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