Archive for Daily Graphings

MLB’s Attack On Fan-Created Podcasts

At the request of Major League Baseball Advanced Media, Apple removed several baseball-related podcasts from iTunes on Wednesday. HardballTalk broke the news Wednesday morning when Aaron Gleeman, one of HBT’s lead writers, learned that his Minnesota Twins-related podcast known as “Gleeman and the Gleek” had been taken down by Apple. By midday, the list had grown to include another Twins-related podcast “Talk to Contact,” a Yankees-themed podcast on the site “It’s About The Money, Stupid,” and the Cubs-centered podcast on “Bleacher Nation,” among others. Awful Announcing catalogued the reaction on social media, which was swift, fierce and uniformly negative.

MLBAM publicly released the letter it Apple after news of the podcast takedowns spread. HardballTalk published it:

As we have done in the past, yesterday we notified Apple about certain podcasts on the iTunes Store whose titles and/or thumbnails include infringing uses of trademarks of Major League Baseball and certain Clubs.  And, as we have done in the past, we asked Apple to have these trademarks removed from the podcast titles and thumbnails. Although we did not ask for or seek to have any podcast removed from the Store, it has come to our attention that Apple removed them.   Given our many years of experience in notifying Apple about trademark issues on the Store, we trust that removing the podcasts was an oversight, and ask that you please look into this matter as soon as possible.

Thank you for your cooperation.

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A Sad Farewell to Victor Martinez’s Streak

Plate discipline is easy. You’re supposed to swing at hittable strikes and lay off of everything else. Two-strike discipline is also easy. You’re supposed to swing at basically all strikes and lay off of everything else. The problem is pitchers have conspired to throw baseballs both wickedly fast and wickedly darty, because they are the hitters’ very opponents, and this makes the ideal theoretical discipline impossible to achieve. But when you have two strikes, you definitely don’t want to get caught staring at a third. That’s a pitch a hitter should’ve swung at. It’s an inevitability that called strikeouts happen, and that’s even inevitable for Victor Martinez, But for the longest stretch, he was clean. For 641 consecutive plate appearances, he was clean.

Understand what we’re talking about: Over just about a full season’s worth of plate appearances, Martinez didn’t strike out looking. His streak started on May 22, 2013, carried through the playoffs and ended on Monday. Now, this isn’t always necessarily indicative of success. Last year, Endy Chavez struck out looking once, and he was bad. Josh Phegley struck out looking once, and he was bad. This year, Alex Presley has yet to strike out looking. Back in 2012, the lowest ratio of called strikeouts to swinging strikeouts belonged to Delmon Young. If you swing at everything, you’ll never watch strike three. But the same numbers can be different indicators for different players, and for Martinez, this seems like an accomplishment to celebrate.

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Official Confirmation of the Role of Pitch-Receiving

I know you’ve got pitch-framing fatigue, and I know this isn’t going to help. I know that some of you are going to skip right over this, and that’s fine. But this post isn’t about a leaderboard, or a specific pitch or pitch sequence. This is about an acknowledgment of the role of the skill, from one of the people we figure catchers are trying to convince. A lot of the time, when a post goes up here about framing, someone chimes in in the comments all skeptical-like, claiming that umpires aren’t influenced by the catchers catching the pitches. The very fact that framing numbers hold up season-to-season suggests strongly that they’re measuring something. There’s also a little something from Tuesday, as brought to my attention by @AaronBell80.

The Dodgers beat the Nationals 8-3, in Washington. The biggest story of the game, probably, wasn’t the start by Blake Treinen. The biggest story about Blake Treinen, probably, wasn’t about his called strike zone. But, Treinen started and threw to Jose Lobaton, with Paul Nauert behind the plate. When the game was over, Lobaton passed a little something along to the media.

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Robbie Ray, In Pieces

Probably the worst move of the offseason was when the Tigers shipped Doug Fister to the Nationals for a package highlighted by prospect Robbie Ray. It was at least the move most commonly referred to as the worst move of the offseason, and on his own list of the worst transactions, Dave Cameron put it at No. 1. I don’t need to go into all the explanations, but because of all the conversations we’ve had, Ray and Fister might be forever linked. Ray is certainly a pretty well-known prospect, now. And just as everyone expected when the trade was announced, Ray has ended up pitching in the majors in 2014 sooner than Fister has, after making his big-league debut Tuesday night.

There’s only so much you can make of a start, particularly when it’s a first start. You have to account for all the jitters. You have to think a pitcher might not have his normal approach. Ray happened to start against the Astros, which makes for another variable, and then, above everything else, you have the sample size of a handful of innings. Ray survived, which means his start was a success, and he allowed just one run, which means he can feel really good today. Big-time analysis, we can’t perform. But for some analysis, we are already in the clear.

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The Worst Starts in Great Seasons

During a May 2 showdown with division rival Detroit, Kansas City’s ace James Shields put up a horrible start. After mostly dominating batters through the first month of the season, Shields allowed eight runs in just over six innings, a dent in an otherwise good-looking seasonal line. Without analyzing the start in detail, it is fair to say that no matter how bad it was for Kansas City, in itself it provided no obvious cause for concern with regard to Shields. Shields has been one of the top ten or fifteen starters in baseball the last few years, and one game by itself does not change that.

Still, just how bad can it get for good pitchers? Every pitcher puts up a bad start now and then, but how bad have the best been in recent years?

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At the Ballpark: Race, Community and MLB

Race, racism and sports have been at the top of the news cycle for several weeks, thanks to Donald Sterling. But if you look deep enough, they’re in the news cycle every day.

The undercurrent bubbled to the surface among baseball writers this week, when San Francisco Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area penned a column lamenting the Atlanta Braves’ decision to leave 20-year-old Turner Field in downtown Atlanta at the end of the 2016 season for a shiny new ballpark to built at considerable taxpayer expense in Cobb County, a suburb just north of the city limits. Baggarly didn’t pull punches.

If the grading and construction and everything else goes to schedule, the Braves will make their white-flight move – and yes, that’s precisely what it is — in 2017.

This is outrageous. I don’t live within 2,000 miles of Atlanta and I am outraged.

….

Why are the Braves moving? Braves president John Schuerholz, in a taped statement that sounded thoroughly vetted and polished, cited difficulty with fan access at Turner Field along with lease that is expiring in three years and explained how millions in upgrades wouldn’t have come close to “improving the fan experience.”

“We wanted to find a location that is great for our fans, makes getting to and from the stadium much easier, and provides a first rate experience in and around our stadium,” he said.

I’ll leave you to wonder which fans they care about.

….

The Braves’ new ballpark might make financial sense. It might be too sweetheart to turn down. But every baseball ownership group should see itself as stewards for the franchise and the community, both those who are economically important and those who are less so. And that’s what makes this wasteful flight to Cobb County such a disappointment. It just feels wrong.

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FG on Fox: Cano vs Pedroia

No one in baseball history has ever been better at closing out games than Mariano Rivera. Armed with an unhittable cut fastball and incredible command, Rivera cemented himself as a legend in New York, spending his entire career as a Yankee and becoming the first active player ever enshrined in Monument Park. His farewell ceremony last September was one of the most memorable moments in recent baseball history, but retirement hasn’t taken Rivera out of the spotlight just yet.

In an excerpt from his new book, appropriately entitled “The Closer,” Rivera comments on the active crop of second basemen; most notably, his long-time teammate Robinson Cano and his counterpoint Dustin Pedroia, star of the hated rivals up in Boston. While one might expect Rivera to side with his teammate, or simply to side with any player wearing the vaunted pinstripes, Rivera instead espouses affection for his rival.

“If I have to win one game, I’d have a hard time taking anybody over Dustin Pedroia as my second baseman,” Rivera noted.

Rivera is certainly familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of both players, but on-field greatness doesn’t always equate to a tremendous ability to build a roster; just ask anyone who has ever cheered for a basketball team built by Michael Jordan. So, with all due respect for Rivera’s experience, let’s see what the numbers have to say about Cano and Pedroia.

Read the rest at FoxSports.com


The Absolutely Fascinating Henderson Alvarez

Henderson Alvarez isn’t the best starter on the Marlins, obviously. He isn’t the second-best either, unless you really dislike Nathan Eovaldi. Tom Koehler has his supporters, and a lower ERA. Andrew Heaney is coming, and so is Justin Nicolino. If you’re looking for young pitching, the Marlins have lots of it, some younger than Alvarez, others with more talent. And yet here we are, in our second Marlins-related post of the last 24 hours — let it never be said that we only love the big-market teams — focusing on Miami’s mid-rotation starter, because he might just be the most fascinating player that no one seems to know about, for just so many different reasons.

Alvarez, of course, shut out the Mets on Tuesday night, his second shutout of the season, his third in his last eight starts, and we’ll get to that in a second. But first, think about what we knew about him already. He is, so far as I can find, the only player in the history of professional baseball to have the first name of “Henderson.” He’s one of the only players to participate in a political protest outside his own clubhouse. (Not against the Marlins, as justifiable as that would be.) He is, I imagine, the only pitcher to have a novelty windup for the first pitch of every game:  Read the rest of this entry »


So What Can We Make of the Marlins’ Big Offense?

In the interest of showing some accountability, I’d like to remind you of something. Before the season started, the Marlins projected to be worst in baseball at catcher. They projected to be worst in baseball at first base, and they also projected to be worst in baseball at second and third base, and they projected to be second-worst in baseball at shortstop. They were, basically, projected to be Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Fernandez, and 23 members of the community in good standing. At this writing, the Marlins are third in baseball in position-player WAR, and they’re tied in third in wRC+. It’s not quite like if the Astros were good, but it isn’t dissimilar.

A fifth of the way through the season, feelings about the Marlins are complicated and conflicting. On the one hand, they’re an easy, appealing team to root for, with a lot of young, energetic, lesser-known talent. They’re a feel-good story and an obvious bandwagon candidate. On the other hand, it can be tricky to separate a team from its ownership, and for certain reasons it might work to baseball’s greater benefit to have the Marlins fall flat on their faces every year. You want to root for the Marlins, but you don’t want to side with Jeffrey Loria. It’s a good and bad thing when sports make you think.

But as long as we’re thinking about the Marlins, let’s address all that hitting. Just a year ago, the Marlins were an offensive catastrophe, and a catastrophe offensively. They were supposed to be bad again in 2014. They’ve been anything but, to this point, so one has to wonder: what does this mean? Just how wrong have we been?

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Minor-League Batting Leaders, According to Steamer MLEs

An essential aspect of any projection system that’s worth a damn is the integration of minor-league data into same — and the translation of that minor-league data to its major-league equivalent (MLE). The Steamer projection system, being worth several of damns, produces MLEs for what appears to be almost every minor-leaguer who exists — and probably some who even don’t.

Yesterday, I asked Steamer owner and operator Jared Cross for the MLE hitting data that’s currently being utilized for the production of Steamer’s rest-of-season and updated forecasts. What follows are four leaderboards featuring that data — specifically, of the MLE batting leaders by various, hopefully useful, criteria.

The first two leaderboards feature minor-league batting leaders (first all of them, and then just prospect-aged one) by translated wOBA. The second pair of leaderboards feature minor-league leaders by translated FIB* — a wOBA estimator (discussed here) which accounts only for home runs, walks, and strikeouts and which has some value insofar as those metrics become stable at least 1,000 plate appearances before BABIP (which metric influences wOBA considerably).

Below the aforementioned leaderboards, followed by some brief comments of varying quality.

MLE Leaderboard: All Minor-League Hitters by wOBA
Below are the top-20 minor-league batters by translated wOBA, according to Steamer (min. 50 PA).

# Name Age Org Lev POS PA AVG OBP SLG BABIP wOBA
1 Kyle Roller 26 Yankees AA 1B 73 .376 .428 .768 .426 .493
2 Gabriel Noriega 23 Mariners AAA SS 55 .435 .435 .580 .490 .442
3 Cole Gillespie 30 Mariners AAA OF 68 .320 .395 .617 .327 .432
4 J.D. Martinez 26 Tigers AAA OF 71 .262 .303 .692 .230 .415
5 George Springer 24 Astros AAA OF 61 .314 .397 .563 .410 .413
6 Joey Butler 28 Cardinals AAA OF 88 .352 .446 .489 .417 .407
7 Ernesto Mejia 28 Braves AAA 1B 88 .316 .366 .584 .390 .407
8 Gregory Polanco 22 Pirates AAA OF 118 .354 .399 .536 .422 .401
9 Eugenio Velez 32 Brewers AAA OF 91 .353 .405 .498 .406 .396
10 Donald Lutz 25 Reds AA OF 82 .324 .362 .573 .369 .395
11 Tyler Ladendorf 26 Athletics AAA SS 97 .342 .421 .455 .418 .387
12 Allan Dykstra 27 Mets AAA 1B 95 .276 .402 .481 .339 .386
13 Audry Perez 25 Cardinals AAA C 54 .348 .367 .512 .393 .383
14 Taylor Teagarden 30 Mets AAA C 63 .257 .336 .547 .313 .381
15 Mookie Betts 21 Red Sox AA 2B 120 .338 .380 .496 .353 .380
16 Chris Taylor 23 Mariners AAA SS 119 .336 .360 .518 .392 .375
17 Johnny Giavotella 26 Royals AAA 2B 82 .345 .381 .472 .358 .374
18 Micah Johnson 23 White Sox AA 2B 128 .336 .395 .454 .403 .373
19 Wade Hinkle 24 Angels A+ 1B 57 .326 .374 .483 .479 .371
20 Shawn Zarraga 25 Brewers AA C 69 .387 .432 .428 .425 .370

MLE Leaderboard: Prospect-Age Minor-League Hitters by wOBA
Here are the top-20 minor-league batters aged 24-or-under by MLE wOBA, according to Steamer (min. 50 PA).

# Name Age Org Lev POS PA AVG OBP SLG BABIP wOBA
1 Gabriel Noriega 23 Mariners AAA SS 55 .435 .435 .580 .490 .442
2 George Springer 24 Astros AAA OF 61 .314 .397 .563 .410 .413
3 Gregory Polanco 22 Pirates AAA OF 118 .354 .399 .536 .422 .401
4 Mookie Betts 21 Red Sox AA 2B 120 .338 .380 .496 .353 .380
5 Chris Taylor 23 Mariners AAA SS 119 .336 .360 .518 .392 .375
6 Micah Johnson 23 White Sox AA 2B 128 .336 .395 .454 .403 .373
7 Wade Hinkle 24 Angels A+ 1B 57 .326 .374 .483 .479 .371
8 Joc Pederson 22 Dodgers AAA OF 132 .287 .388 .451 .387 .368
9 Elmer Reyes 23 Braves AA SS 61 .331 .356 .500 .380 .368
10 Jon Singleton 22 Astros AAA 1B 126 .249 .333 .554 .277 .367
11 Nick Franklin 23 Mariners AAA SS 78 .292 .363 .488 .343 .366
12 Ryan Rua 24 Rangers AA 2B 105 .291 .363 .467 .323 .364
13 Rangel Ravelo 22 White Sox AA 1B 96 .291 .387 .444 .332 .362
14 Zachary Wilson 23 Yankees A+ UT 57 .352 .360 .472 .423 .360
15 Cameron Perkins 23 Phillies AA OF 106 .335 .360 .480 .394 .360
16 Peter O’Brien 23 Yankees A+ C 104 .276 .293 .567 .314 .360
17 Gioskar Amaya 21 Cubs A+ 2B 58 .362 .412 .376 .436 .353
18 Taylor Featherston 24 Rockies AA SS 124 .327 .374 .418 .389 .350
19 Willians Astudillo 22 Phillies A UT 81 .351 .359 .436 .372 .349
20 C.J. Cron 24 Angels AAA 1B 122 .274 .313 .494 .314 .348

MLE Leaderboard: All Minor-League Hitters by FIB*
Here are the top-20 minor-league batters by MLE FIB* — i.e. a wOBA estimator which accounts only for home runs, walks, and strikeouts — according to Steamer (min. 50 PA):

# Name Age Org Lev POS PA HR% BB% K% BABIP FIB*
1 J.D. Martinez 26 Tigers AAA OF 71 11.3% 3.2% 25.1% .230 .460
2 Kyle Roller 26 Yankees AA 1B 73 9.5% 8.8% 23.2% .426 .459
3 Cole Gillespie 30 Mariners AAA OF 68 5.7% 10.3% 13.5% .327 .429
4 Jon Singleton 22 Astros AAA 1B 126 7.1% 11.5% 27.4% .277 .418
5 Rob Segedin 25 Yankees AA OF 91 3.8% 12.5% 11.6% .264 .411
6 Taylor Teagarden 30 Mets AAA C 63 6.9% 10.6% 30.9% .313 .400
7 Kennys Vargas 23 Twins AA 1B 106 4.6% 9.7% 17.1% .261 .397
8 Francisco Pena 24 Royals AAA C 69 6.6% 5.5% 23.0% .211 .396
9 Kyle Blanks 27 Padres AAA 1B 95 6.5% 8.1% 27.9% .227 .393
10 Bryan Anderson 27 Reds AA C 77 4.7% 9.2% 18.8% .289 .393
11 Nick Evans 28 D-backs AAA 1B 91 5.4% 5.6% 17.9% .233 .391
12 Ty Kelly 25 Mariners AAA 2B 85 1.8% 18.3% 16.8% .267 .388
13 Dan Johnson 34 Blue Jays AAA 1B 114 2.7% 13.6% 15.3% .268 .387
14 Joey Butler 28 Cardinals AAA OF 88 2.8% 14.0% 17.0% .417 .386
15 Jhonatan Solano 28 Nationals AAA C 75 3.1% 8.2% 10.4% .281 .385
16 Jake Goebbert 26 Athletics AAA OF 100 3.6% 8.9% 14.3% .283 .385
17 Ernesto Mejia 28 Braves AAA 1B 88 6.4% 6.1% 27.3% .390 .384
18 Braeden Schlehuber 26 Braves AA C 51 3.4% 7.1% 10.7% .186 .384
19 Allan Dykstra 27 Mets AAA 1B 95 2.3% 17.1% 19.3% .339 .383
20 Justin Bour 26 Marlins AAA 1B 119 2.7% 7.9% 7.9% .305 .383

MLE Leaderboard: Prospect-Age Minor-League Hitters by FIB*
Here are the top-20 minor-league batters aged 24-or-under by MLE FIB* — i.e. a wOBA estimator which accounts only for home runs, walks, and strikeouts — according to Steamer (min. 50 PA):

# Name Age Org Lev POS PA HR% BB% K% BABIP FIB*
1 Jon Singleton 22 Astros AAA 1B 126 7.1% 11.5% 27.4% .277 .418
2 Kennys Vargas 23 Twins AA 1B 106 4.6% 9.7% 17.1% .261 .397
3 Francisco Pena 24 Royals AAA C 69 6.6% 5.5% 23.0% .211 .396
4 Ryan Rua 24 Rangers AA 2B 105 3.6% 9.7% 16.4% .323 .383
5 Travis Shaw 24 Red Sox AA 1B 107 2.6% 9.4% 10.2% .262 .382
6 Jesus Montero 24 Mariners AAA C 96 5.7% 5.7% 23.4% .275 .381
7 Jabari Henry 23 Mariners A+ OF 66 4.4% 10.2% 22.5% .165 .381
8 Nick Franklin 23 Mariners AAA SS 78 4.0% 10.0% 20.9% .343 .377
9 Jesus Aguilar 24 Indians AAA 1B 113 3.6% 11.4% 21.3% .310 .376
10 Peter O’Brien 23 Yankees A+ C 104 6.7% 2.4% 26.1% .314 .376
11 Craig Manuel 24 Nationals A C 65 2.6% 6.0% 7.3% .263 .375
12 Oscar Taveras 22 Cardinals AAA OF 112 3.7% 5.5% 13.4% .299 .375
13 Joey Gallo 20 Rangers A+ 3B 119 5.3% 11.0% 31.6% .285 .374
14 George Springer 24 Astros AAA OF 61 4.4% 11.2% 26.6% .410 .374
15 Mookie Betts 21 Red Sox AA 2B 120 2.4% 7.2% 8.2% .353 .374
16 Rangel Ravelo 22 White Sox AA 1B 96 1.9% 12.6% 13.6% .332 .373
17 Jabari Blash 24 Mariners AA OF 110 3.2% 13.7% 24.0% .249 .371
18 Anthony Garcia 22 Cardinals A+ OF 106 4.0% 6.2% 18.1% .173 .369
19 Jose Ramirez 21 Indians AAA 2B 105 2.2% 6.5% 8.3% .276 .368
20 Max Muncy 23 Athletics AA 1B 127 1.2% 13.3% 12.7% .288 .368

Brief Comments of Varying Quality:

  • With regard to overall MLE wOBA leader Kyle Roller, here’s who Kyle Roller is: an eighth-round selection by the Yankees in 2010 out of East Carolina University. And here’s who else: a prospect who’s always (a) been old for his levels and (b) produced above-average offensive lines relative to his leagues.
  • Despite leading all prospect-age hitters by translated wOBA, Seattle infield prospect Gabriel Noriega’s line at Triple-A Tacoma is also mostly informed by batted-ball outcomes. Indeed, he hasn’t recorded an above-average offensive line since 2008, in the Rookie-level Appalachian League.
  • That said, other Seattle infield prospect Chris Taylor — 16th among all minor-league hitters by translated wOBA and just fifth among prospect-age minor-league hitters — received the 38th-best WAR projection among rookie-eligible players before the season.
  • Among the top prospect-age hitters by translated FIB* is Jose Ramirez, which Cleveland infield prospect (a) was recently promoted to the majors and (b) JD Sussman considered briefly in Monday’s edition of the Prospect Watch.
  • Do you even Mookie Betts?