Hitting triples is pretty hard. At the height of triple-icity, they only comprised six percent of all the hits in the majors in any given season, and that was back in the first Dead Ball era. Today that figure hovers around two percent. Back in Stan Musial’s day it wasn’t a great deal higher — 3.3 percent during the seasons of his career (1941-1963, with 1945 excepted). And yet, Musial, a power hitter, hit the heck out of some triples.
Last week, in rating Dustin Pedroia 25th on the trade value list, I noted that he was “an elite player making a relative pittance for the next two seasons.” That is still true, but his relative pittance is going to grow substantially starting in 2015, as the Red Sox have agreed to sign Pedroia to a long term contract that will keep him in Boston through 2021.
As Rob Bradford notes in his message, the contract is a seven year deal for approximately $100 million that begins in 2015, so it could also be seen as a six year extension given that the Sox already had a team option for that year. No matter how you want to phrase it, Pedroia has gone from being under team control for the next two years to the next eight years.
Given that he was going to be paid $11 million in 2015 without the extension, and that the new deal pays him “around $100 million”, we can note that those extra six years cost the Red Sox something in the range of $90 million in new money. And, given the rising prices of high performing players, this a smart move for Boston, especially given what his asking price might have been if he signed after Robinson Cano.
Over the winter, we saw Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander — both two years from free agency — sign extensions that added five years of team control for $135 million and $140 million respectively. Elvis Andrus, also two years from free agency, signed an eight year, $120 million extension. While Pedroia isn’t a perfect comparison to any of these players, getting him for less than $100 million over six years seems like a pretty nice little discount.
Maybe the best comparison overall for this deal is the Ian Kinsler extension from last year. The Rangers owned his rights for two more seasons when they gave him a $75 million extension over five years, so the AAV on that deal and this one seem quite similar, with Pedroia getting one extra guaranteed season. Interestingly, if you look at Kinsler and Pedroia from their three years leading up to the extension, they look pretty darn similar.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | BsR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Pedroia | 1,803 | 10% | 11% | 0.151 | 0.319 | 0.301 | 0.373 | 0.453 | 0.359 | 123 | 33 | 0 | 15.3 |
| Ian Kinsler | 1,823 | 11% | 11% | 0.203 | 0.260 | 0.262 | 0.352 | 0.465 | 0.357 | 114 | 29 | 19 | 15.0 |
Kinsler hit for more power, Pedroia had a higher BABIP, but in the end, it added up to a pretty similar overall package. The defensive reports on Pedroia are a lot stronger than on Kinsler, who began his career as a pretty brutal second baseman, so perhaps you want to give Pedroia a little bit of a boost for defensive value if you don’t trust UZR equating their value in the field. Either way, though, they’re going to end up in the same ballpark, which was probably a point of evidence used by the Red Sox in negotiations, I’d imagine.
That comparison is both good for the Sox (since Kinsler’s extension was a lot cheaper than others we’ve seen) and maybe a little scary for the Sox, since Kinsler immediately posted the worst offensive season of his career after signing the deal, and it’s not entirely clear that Kinsler would get that same $75 million this winter had the Rangers not locked him up last spring, but he’s still a valuable piece and the deal hardly looks like an albatross. And Pedroia has a stronger track record than Kinsler, especially on defense.
But, there remains skepticism about the aging curves of second baseman in general. There’s a conventional wisdom that says that the position takes a physical toll on players that other spots on the field do not, and people point to guys like Roberto Alomar who just lost all his skills earlier than expected. However, I don’t actually see a lot of evidence that we should be too scared of how second baseman age relative to how everyone else ages, anyway.
A couple of years ago, I wrote about this while discussing Chase Utley’s aging curve. Utley has obviously had some injury problems over the last few years, but has remained a highly productive player when he’s on the field, and as I noted in that article, most second baseman who had been as good as he had in his twenties continued to be productive in their thirties. I also looked at the issue in March, when discussing Robinson Cano’s next contract, and didn’t see any compelling data that suggested offensive oriented second baseman just stopped hitting after turning 30.
There are second baseman who have gotten old in a hurry, just like there are players at every position. If second baseman are more prone to premature aging, I haven’t yet seen evidence to support that idea.
In Pedroia, the Sox have one of the games premier players. He might not be tall, and he might not produce in the way that a lot of other players produce, but he’s one of the most valuable baseball players on the planet. Pedroia likely won’t be as good from 32-38 as he was earlier in his career, but at the price Boston is paying, he doesn’t have to be. With the going rate of inflation in baseball, $15 million per year could easily be the market price for an average player by the middle of this contract.
The last couple of years of this deal probably aren’t going to look so great, as Pedroia is unlikely to still be a good starting second baseman in his late thirties. However, the price for the first few years is so low that the overall deal should be a net positive for the Red Sox. Pedroia’s a star who has never been paid like one, and with this deal, he never will be. But he’s going to spend the rest of his career in Boston, most likely, and that is probably more important than maximizing his earnings.
One of the most remarkable things about the Cardinals’ clutch hitting — aside from the reality of the Cardinals’ clutch hitting — is the way it refuses to regress the way we’d expect it to. From a Cardinals game recap over the weekend:
At the end of April, the team was batting .327 with runners in scoring position. A month later, the average was up to .333. Three months in, it sat at .335. And after going 2-for-5 with runners in scoring position on Sunday, the Cardinals now boast a mark of .338. No team in baseball history has even come close to maintaining such a pace.
The Cardinals came out of the gate hitting well with runners in scoring position. At least by batting average, every month they’ve only gotten better. That’s not what regression looks like. That’s the polar opposite of what regression looks like. It’s been enough to make some people wonder. Just what are the Cardinals doing, and how are the Cardinals doing it?
The trade deadline is in eight days. Thus far, we’ve seen the Cubs trade away Scott Feldman, the Cubs trade away Scott Hairston, the Cubs trade away Matt Garza, and most recently, the Cubs getting close to trading away Alfonso Soriano. Okay, sure, the Marlins traded Ricky Nolasco too, but you would not be wrong to suggest that it has seemed for most of July that exactly one team was open for business while everyone else just kind of stood around and looked at each other.
More teams are going to get involved over the next week and a day. The Astros will probably trade Bud Norris. The White Sox will probably trade Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, and perhaps others. The Brewers might deal Yovani Gallardo, maybe. The Marlins might decide to dump relief pitchers and their salaries. But, by and large, this is shaping up to be an absolute snoozer of a trade deadline, and it may very well be time to question whether or not July 31st is the right date going forward.
Major League Baseball suspended Ryan Braun for the remainder of the season on Monday for “violations of the Basic Agreement and its Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program,” according to a press release the league issued. The release also included a statement from Braun in which he admitted that he had “made some mistakes” and was “willing to accept the consequences of those actions.” The suspension for the remainder of the season amounts to a 65-game punishment.
A press release with statements from both MLB executives and Braun strongly suggests the suspension was the result of negotiations between the two sides. We also have this from Bill Shakin of the Los Angeles Times:
Hearing Braun approached MLB proactively, rather than being presented with a proposed suspension and starting to deal from there.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) July 22, 2013
But before any such discussions took place, MLB and Braun likely had tentative game plans. MLB may have been planning to suspend Braun for much longer than 65 games. Braun undoubtedly was planning to appeal any such suspension. Braun gave up his appeal and agreed to serve the suspension immediately, likely in return for shorter suspension period.
That’s what we know or can reasonably infer from the information the league provided. But there are many questions we don’t have answers to; questions that will shape the remainder of the league’s Biogenesis investigation.
Well, the first shoe in the BioGenesis case has fallen. Faced with the possibility of having the issue continue to linger into 2014, Ryan Braun has agreed to a deal with MLB, and will be suspended for the rest of the 2013 season, which in the Brewers case, amounts to 65 games.
While Braun’s not going to enjoy being suspended, this is actually a pretty good resolution for the Brewers overall. Their 2013 season is obviously finished, and the marginal value of Braun’s contributions this year weren’t really going to matter to the organization. Without him in the line-up, they might even end up with a better draft pick than they would have otherwise in a year where the amateur talent is supposed to be pretty good.
More importantly, this should close the book on the BioGenesis case as far as Braun is concerned, which means that his 2014 status should no longer be in doubt. Braun basically is agreeing to serve a 65 game suspension in a season where those games are meaningless in order to avoid getting suspended in a year where any missed games might impact a pennant race.
For Braun’s own personal legacy and record, this is a blow, but for the Brewers, it’s hard to imagine a better outcome, given that MLB clearly wasn’t going to let this go. Yeah, it’s 65 games, but this is the equivalent of getting pinch hit for in a blow-out. The 2013 Brewers weren’t going anywhere with Ryan Braun, and so now, they put this behind them next spring and try to win with their best player able to spend the whole season on the active roster.
It will be interesting to see how many other players on non-contenders agree to similar deals, putting the appeals process aside and just agreeing to serve their suspensions in lost seasons. If I’m a non-contender and I’ve got a player linked to BioGenesis, I’m strongly urging them to do the same.
UPDATE: Matt Garza has officially been traded from the Cubs to the Rangers, reportedly in exchange for Mike Olt, C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm, and a player to be named later. This post was originally published on Friday, July 19.
Matt Garza hasn’t been traded, yet, so Matt Garza hasn’t been traded to the Rangers, yet. In fact, a report circulated late Thursday night that the Rangers were examining their other options, backing away from the Garza pursuit. The price, they say, is a high one. But, Friday’s reports have made a Cubs/Rangers trade appear imminent, and as a matter of fact one could go down while I’m in the process of writing this post. That would be annoying for me but delightful for you. It’s a virtual certainty that the Cubs will deal Garza very soon, and the Rangers seem like far and away the most likely destination.
Joe Davidson says the Rangers and Cubs are reviewing the various medicals. If true, that implies this is at the later stages, and what’s unknown is what the Rangers would be giving up. It stands to reason Mike Olt would probably be involved, along with others, but I’ll leave prospect coverage to prospect coverers. Most important, here, is Garza — the free-agent-to-be — going to Texas, and what such a transaction might tell us about the way the Rangers view themselves.
On Saturday in DC, there was a showdown between the Dodgers and the Nationals, as two teams with high expectations looked to kick-start strong second halves. The Dodgers won 3-1, but that’s not important, for this. The matchup on the mound was Zack Greinke vs. Gio Gonzalez. In the top of the third, Greinke batted and led off with a first-pitch double to deep center. Mark Ellis, Yasiel Puig, and Adrian Gonzalez would leave him stranded. In the top of the fifth, Greinke batted again and drilled a second-pitch single up the middle. Around him, Tim Federowicz, Ellis, and Puig struck out swinging. That night, Hanley Ramirez led the Dodgers with three hits, and Greinke was alone in second with two.
By now you might’ve heard something about this. After reading that first paragraph, you’ve certainly heard something about this. Zack Greinke has been having a hell of a year at the plate. Obviously with pitchers batting the samples are always tiny, but that generally doesn’t stop pitchers from posting miserable offensive statistics. Greinke, at this writing, is batting .406. No other pitcher in baseball is batting at least .400. No other pitcher in baseball is batting at least .300. No other pitcher in baseball has a wRC+ in the triple digits.
Carlos Delgado’s official retirement in 2011 sort of slipped under the radar. It was understandable, since it came in April right after the beginning of the season. It was a bit unfortunate, though, because Delgado had an wonderful career. Yesterday at the Rogers Centre, the former Met and Marlin slugger was recognized by the team he was most closely associated with, the Blue Jays, during a ceremony in which he was inducted into the Jays’ “Level of Excellence.”
[It’s a tremendous name, isn’t it? I can imagine the brainstorming that went into it. Team President: “You need to come up with a name for our version of a Ring of Honor that is a bit different. Something like, ‘Level of Excellence,’ but, you know, better.” {President leaves rooms.} Marketing Person to others: “‘Level of Excellence’ okay with everyone?” {Others shrug in assent.}]
Delgado was outstanding, but he was no Hall of Famer. He move from catcher to first base early on, and even that position was a stretch, no matter how hard he tried. He was bad on the bases. But the guy could hit. From 1997 to 2004, he was one of the best hitters in the American League. His 148 wRC+ over that span was the equal of Alex Rodriguez and better than Edgar Martinez and Frank Thomas.
Last week, I went through the 50 best assets in baseball, as rated by overall trade value based on their performance, age, and contract status. Today, we finish up the Trade Value series with the five players farthest from making the list. This is the Anti-Trade Value list; the guys who would be nearly impossible to trade because of their outsized contracts and undersized performances.
The take home notion: Beware the aging slugger.
