Archive for Daily Notes

Daily Notes: Miguel Tejada Signs Mostly Major-League Deal

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines for the Baseball Enthusiast
2. Graphs: Miguel Tejada’s Career in WAR
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League

Assorted Headlines for the Baseball Enthusiast
Kansas City Sign Chavez, Tejada
The Kansas City Royals have signed outfielder Endy Chavez and infielder Miguel Tejada to minor-league deals, reports MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. The latter will become an MLB deal worth $1.1 million, according to Dionisio Soldevila of ESPN Deportes (with credit to MLB Trade Rumors’ Edward Creech for collecting same information). Tejada, who enters his age-39 season, has been worth 43.8 WAR over his career, although only about one of those wins has come over the previous three seasons.

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Daily Notes: Javy Vazquez Would Consider Joining Contender

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. White-Hot News: Vazquez Would Consider Joining Contender
2. Apropos of Little: Biggio and Vaughn at Seton Hall
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League

White-Hot News: Vazquez Would Consider Joining Contender
As noted recently in these pages, right-hander Javier Vazquez has proven to be among the most effective pitchers in the Puerto Rican League this winter since joining said league at the beginning of December. Noted even more recently — by Ralph Pagán Archeval in the pages of ESPN Deportes — is how Vazquez would consider returning to the majors.

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Daily Notes: Ft. Foreign Leaderboards, Exclusively

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. On Foreign Leaderboards, One of Their Virtues
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Australian Baseball League

On Foreign Leaderboards, One of Their Virtues
When the author was younger than he is now — but not so young as he was before that — he made a practice of watching Italian soccer games on his home television. The primary objective was to watch the Beautiful Game played in the anxious and too-deliberate Italian style. A secondary one, however, was to participate in a sort of sporting-type of tourism — which, I’ll explain.

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Daily Notes: Ft. A Javy Vazquez Status Update Update

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Status Update: Javier Vazquez’s Status, Updated
2. Video: Javier Vazquez’s Most Recent Major League Start
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Puerto Rican League

Status Update: Javier Vazquez’s Status, Updated
Right-hander Javier Vazquez, 36, has made four starts since joining Ponce of the Puerto Rican League at the beginning of the month — most recently on Dec. 19 at Mayaguez, when he posted this impressive line (box): 6.0 IP, 27 TBF, 11 K, 2 BB, 6:2 GO:AO.

Vazquez has now posted this other, more different line during those same four starts: 17.0 IP, 23 K, 3 BB, 1 HR. His performance has given him the league’s best regressed kwERA despite a relatively small sample — which, because of the way SCOUT- (discussed below) is calculated, it’s actually more difficult to produce excellent numbers in a small sample like that.

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Daily Notes: Ft. Kal Daniels’ Alternate Career Path

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Kal Daniels’ Hastily Calculated and Alternate Career Path
2. Unnecessary Video: Kal Daniels Making a Catch Once
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League

Kal Daniels’ Hastily Calculated and Alternate Career Path
As noted in today’s release of the ZiPS projections for the Washington Nationals, Bryce Harper’s closest comparable at the moment, according to ZiPS, is former Reds outfielder Kal Daniels. As also noted in that post, Kal Daniels was a pretty excellent ballplayer between his age-22 and -26 seasons, during which span he posted a 16.9 WAR over 1,970 plate appearances — i.e. over five wins for every 600 plate appearances.

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Daily Notes: How 2012’s Best Relievers Were Acquired

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Table: How 2012’s Best Relievers Were Acquired
2. Of Note: Evan Gattis’s Past Week in Venezuela
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League

Table: How 2012’s Best Relievers Were Acquired
On Sunday, the Boston Red Sox agreed to send youngish corner-type Jerry Sands, right-handed prospect Stolmy Pimentel, and (likely) two others to Pittsburgh in exchange for closer Joel Hanrahan and (likely) one other. It represents the third not-insubstantial trade — after last year’s deals for Andrew Bailey (which required conceding Josh Reddick and Miles Head) and Mark Melancon (which cost them Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland) — the third not-insubstantial trade the Red Sox have conducted over the last two seasons in search of quality, high-leverage relief.

It raises the question, of course: are quality, high-leverage relievers generally acquired by means of trade? And, if not by trade, then how are they acquired?

Below is a (sortable) table of 2012’s best relief pitchers, as measured by the differential between shutdowns (SD) and meltdowns (MD). For each pitcher, I’ve included how he was acquired by the team with which he concluded the 2012 season — either by draft (DR), free agency (FA), trade (TR), or waivers (WV).

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Daily Notes, Ft. Tateyama’s Screwball, For Everyone

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Three Very Recent Transactions
2. GIFs of Enthusiasm: Yoshi Tateyama’s Screwball
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Australian Baseball League

Three Very Recent Transactions
Tateyama Re-Signs with Texas
The Texas Rangers have re-signed right-handed reliever Yoshinori Tateyama to a minor-league contract, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. Over two major-league seasons, the soon-to-be 37-year-old Tateyama pitched 61.0 innings, posting this precise line: 23.7% K, 6.6% BB, 37.5% GB, 3.01 SIERA, 88 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR. Also, he throws a screwball ca. 6% of the time last season — an example of which spectacle one can see below.

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Daily Notes, Ft. Jason Vargas’s Changeup, Mostly

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Table: League’s Top Changeups by Pitch-Type Runs, 2012
2. Action Footage: Three of Jason Vargas’s Changeups
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League

Table: League’s Top Changeups by Pitch-Type Runs, 2012
As Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com was first to report on Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners have traded left-hander Jason Vargas (829.2 career IP, 5.9 WAR, 8.4 RA9-Wins) to the Angels for first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales (1762 career PA, 6.0 WAR). As Jeff Sullivan noted not long after that, the trade mostly benefits both teams. “The Angels,” writes Sullivan, “had too many bats and too few starting pitchers, so they traded a bat for a starting pitcher. The Mariners wanted a bat more than they wanted to keep one of their starting pitchers.”

Morales’s best tool is his power, represented most succinctly by his .210 career ISO. Vargas’s best tool is his changeup. Nor is Vargas’s changeup his best pitch, it’s also one of the best pitches in the league.

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Daily Notes, In Which Scott Kazmir’s Name Is Invoked

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Status Update: Scott Kazmir’s Status, Updated
2. Video: Scott Kazmir Striking Out All the Yankees in 2008
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Puerto Rican League

Status Update: Scott Kazmir’s Status, Updated
Scott Kazmir, who last pitched at the major-league level (for 1.2 innings) in 2011 and last pitched effectively in something more like 2008, currently resides atop the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for starters in the Puerto Rican League. The left-hander, who’s still just 28 years old, pitched for the Sugar Land Skeeters of the Atlantic League this year, posting a 51:33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in in 64.0 innings (14 starts).

Through five starts and 22.2 innings for Carolina in Puerto Rico, Kazmir has recorded a 27:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 2.27 GO/AO — which latter figure probably translates into something like a 50% or 55% ground-ball rate.

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Daily Notes, Ft. WS Odds Converted into Projections

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. World Series Odds Converted into Projections
2. Video: Cubs Shortstop Prospect Arismendy Alcantara
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League

World Series Odds Converted into Projections
Bovada (née Bodog) has published their early odds for the winner of the 2013 World Series. Odds for each of the 30 major-league teams are reproduced below. Also included are the break-even (BE) point (i.e. the likelihood of winning above which a team must have in order for a bet to be profitable) and a generic “projected” probability (i.e. what the odds suggest is the likely chance of each team winning the World Series) calculated by scaling the sum of all break-even percentages to 100%.

Note: the author has assumed, as appears to be customary, that the bettor gets his original stake back in a winning bet. So if the odds are 8/1 — as they are for Toronto — the bettor receives $9 in return for a winning $1 bet, making the break-even point only 11.1%.

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