Daily Notes, Ft. Jason Vargas’s Changeup, Mostly

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Table: League’s Top Changeups by Pitch-Type Runs, 2012
2. Action Footage: Three of Jason Vargas’s Changeups
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League

Table: League’s Top Changeups by Pitch-Type Runs, 2012
As Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com was first to report on Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners have traded left-hander Jason Vargas (829.2 career IP, 5.9 WAR, 8.4 RA9-Wins) to the Angels for first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales (1762 career PA, 6.0 WAR). As Jeff Sullivan noted not long after that, the trade mostly benefits both teams. “The Angels,” writes Sullivan, “had too many bats and too few starting pitchers, so they traded a bat for a starting pitcher. The Mariners wanted a bat more than they wanted to keep one of their starting pitchers.”

Morales’s best tool is his power, represented most succinctly by his .210 career ISO. Vargas’s best tool is his changeup. Nor is Vargas’s changeup his best pitch, it’s also one of the best pitches in the league.

Consider, by way of illustration, the following table — of the league’s 10-best changeups in 2012 by linear-weight runs relative to average. Horizontal movement is represented (in inches, where a positive number represents a pitch breaking towards a right-handed batter) by X-Mov; vertical movement (in inches, where a positive number represents “rise” relative to a ball unaffected by drag) by Y-Mov. R/100 is runs above average per 100 thrown.

Name	Team	IP	Use	MPH	X-Mov	Y-Mov	R/100	Tot R
Fernando Rodney	Rays	74.2	36.2%	82.5	-8.1	2.0	5.1	20.0
Jason Vargas	Mariners	217.1	27.0%	80.0	10.9	2.4	2.3	19.8
Kris Medlen	Braves	138.0	20.0%	80.8	-8.6	5.4	4.5	16.9
Chris Capuano	Dodgers	198.1	26.0%	77.8	8.3	4.1	1.9	14.4
Tommy Milone	Athletics	190.0	25.4%	80.5	10.1	3.7	1.9	14.3
James Shields	Rays	227.2	27.6%	85.1	-6.9	3.3	1.2	11.9
Alex Cobb	Rays	136.1	31.3%	84.8	-5.9	1.1	1.7	11.7
Chris Sale	White Sox	192.0	20.9%	83.6	11.6	1.0	1.9	11.6
Jarrod Parker	Athletics	181.1	22.4%	81.0	-6.6	4.7	1.8	11.6
Cole Hamels	Phillies	215.1	30.3%	83.9	8.5	6.7	1.0	10.4

What we discover here is that, had Fernando Rodney not entirely remade himself, Jason Vargas would have been King of the Changeups in 2012 — i.e. a title the author just invented right this second. What we also discover is that Vargas’s changeup is rather important to his survival as a major-league pitcher: since 2007, it’s the only pitch of his to have recorded a positive pitch-type run total relative to league average.

Action Footage: Three of Jason Vargas’s Changeups
“What does Jason Vargas’s changeup even look like?” someone has probably wondered somewhere at some point. Below is, in fact, what three of Vargas’s changeups (all swinging strikes) looked like this past May against the Red Sox — which team’s excellent center-field camera represents the best in front of which Vargas pitched this season.

Here’s a 1-0 pitch to Kelly Shoppach in the second inning:

Here’s a 1-2 pitch, for a strikeout, to Will Middlebrooks in the third:

And here’s another pitch to Middlebrooks, on an 0-1 counts in the fifth:

Credit to Brooks Baseball for pitch data.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League
Below are the current SCOUT leaderboards for the Mexican Pacific League. (Ages as of July 1st, 2012. Players listed with most recent team. Click here for more on what is SCOUT.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Mexican Pacific League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Mexican Pacific League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.

Player	Team	Age	Pos	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Barbaro Canizares	MEX	32	1B	239	5.6%	15.5%	12.1%	163
Jesse Gutierrez	IND	34	1B	239	6.3%	6.7%	12.1%	144
Cory Aldridge	MEX	33	OF	240	6.6%	16.7%	32.5%	137
Chris Colabello	Twins	28	1B	220	6.1%	10.5%	20.5%	137
Jorge Cantu	Angels	30	1B	181	5.5%	13.9%	23.2%	135
Saul Soto	MEX	33	C	218	4.5%	16.5%	22.0%	132
Marlon Byrd	N/A	34	CF	223	6.1%	10.3%	23.3%	131
Zelous Wheeler	Orioles	25	3B	251	3.8%	12.7%	14.3%	129
Jose Amador	MEX	32	2B	164	3.7%	12.2%	12.8%	128
Jason Botts	MEX	31	OF	225	5.4%	11.1%	21.8%	128

SCOUT Leaderboard: Mexican Pacific League Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Mexican Pacific League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Mike Benacka	IND	29	29		35.0	141	37.7%	10.3%	49
Esmailin Caridad	Cubs	28	33	1	37.0	156	28.2%	8.6%	70
Adrian C. Ramirez	MEX	24	33		31.2	132	27.5%	8.7%	72
Oscar Villarreal	Orioles	30	26		30.0	121	26.8%	8.7%	74
Rafael Diaz	MEX	41	18	5	37.1	165	26.0%	8.8%	77
Mario Mendoza	MEX	33	33		28.2	114	26.3%	9.2%	77
Edwin Salas	MEX	20	11	4	31.0	121	24.1%	8.1%	80
Esteban Haro	MEX	26	22		28.2	119	24.4%	8.9%	81
Francisco Rodriguez	Angels	29	24		23.1	95	23.8%	9.1%	83
Ryan Brasier	Angels	24	24		25.2	103	23.6%	9.0%	84

SCOUT Leaderboard: Mexican Pacific League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Mexican Pacific League, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Marco Duarte	Red Sox	25	12	11	56.2	253	23.4%	9.2%	85
Nick Additon	Cardinals	24	10	10	53.0	229	21.4%	9.2%	90
Anthony Ferrara	Cardinals	22	2	1	5.0	19	20.8%	9.3%	92
Javier Martinez	MEX	29	11	11	62.0	273	20.9%	9.9%	94
Rolando Valdez	MEX	26	12	12	60.2	271	18.8%	8.2%	94
Juan Delgadillo	MEX	29	11	11	69.0	288	18.4%	8.0%	95
Amauri Sanit	MEX	32	11	11	61.0	246	19.1%	8.8%	95
Dennys Reyes	N/A	35	9	9	41.2	196	21.0%	10.7%	95
Edgar Osuna	N/A	24	9	9	44.2	193	19.2%	9.1%	96
Irwin Delgado	MEX	23	12	11	51.0	229	20.5%	10.5%	96