Archive for Daily Notes

Daily Notes, With a Thing Called “Normalized NERD”

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Idle Experiment: Normalized NERD
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Idle Experiment: Normalized NERD
What the Reader Might Have Noticed
It’s possible the reader will have noticed that, more often than not, the averages for the day’s NERD games scores — NERD itself being the infallible watchability metric conceived by the author — that the averages for them of late have been below the overall average NERD score of 5.

Why That Is
The reason for why the averages of the daily NERD games scores are lower than 5 likely has everything to do with the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment. Said playoff-odds adjustment adds a bonus of up to 2 points for a game featuring teams with uncertain playoff fates, subtracts up to 2 points from a game involving teams which are closer either to a 0% or 100% chance of making the postseason.

Why That Is, Part II
Because playoff odds for the majority of teams are known with some certainty in September, it follows that there would be more penalties than bonuses added to the various game scores. It also follows that the daily average NERD game scores would be less than 5 (just as it is frequently above 5 in May, for example).

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Daily Notes, Featuring the Miller’s Tale

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Milwaukee at Washington, 13:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Milwaukee at Washington, 13:05 ET
Regarding the Original Miller’s Tale
In Chaucer’s Canterbury Tales, a miller tells a story about a carpenter with a beautiful young wife. The wife has an affair with a clerk. The clerk, following a series of events too complex to recount here, receives a hot poker “amidde the ers” — which, the reader will know, is one of the worst places to receive a hot poker.

Regarding a Second Miller’s Tale
A second Miller’s Tale concerns the present iteration of the Milwaukee Brewers. In it, the team loses its second-best player during the offseason. Then, after more than half a season of mediocrity, they trade away their other second-best player. Then, they become more or less the best team in the entire league.

Regarding the Two Millers’ Tales, A Similarity
The thing that’s similar about about both Millers’ Tales is the championship-level narratives present in both.

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Daily Notes, With an Impressive Sequence by Darvish

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Footage: An Impressive Sequence by Darvish
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Footage: An Impressive Sequence by Darvish
The Situation
During Thursday night’s Rangers-Angels game (box), with the Rangers leading by one in the fifth inning, Yu Darvish fell behind Howie Kendrick to a 3-1 count.

An Average Pitcher, What He’d Likely Do
In this instance, an average pitcher would likely throw a fastball — or, if not on 3-1, would likely throw one on 3-2.

What Yu Darvish Endeavored to Do
With the count 3-1 against Kendrick, threw a 90 mph cutter, inducing a swing and miss:

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Daily Notes, Featuring Joey Gallo’s Powerful Power

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for All the Rookie-Level Leagues
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for All the Rookie-Level Leagues
Regarding What This Is, First of All
What follows are the SCOUT Leaderboards for all four of the domestic rookie-level minor leagues (the Appalachian, Arizona, Gulf Coast, and Pioneer ones) combined.

Regarding a “SCOUT Leaderboard,” What That Is
SCOUT is metric designed to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous. A high SCOUT+ is good for a hitter; a low SCOUT- is good for a pitcher.

More on SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
SCOUT uses regressed, defense-independent inputs to calculate FIP-like stats for both pitchers and hitters. Click here to learn more about it.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is, because both SCOUT+ and SCOUT- are presented relative to league, it allows one to compare the relative performances of players across multiple leagues — like in what follows, for example.

Regarding These Numbers
All the following numbers are final for 2012.

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Daily Notes, Featuring the Univ. of Florida, It Appears

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Both the Low-A Leagues
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for Both the Low-A Leagues
Regarding What This Is, First of All
What follows are the SCOUT Leaderboards for both the Low-A Leagues (the New York-Penn and Northwest ones, that is) combined.

Regarding a “SCOUT Leaderboard,” What That Is
SCOUT is metric designed to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous. A high SCOUT+ is good for a hitter; a low SCOUT- is good for a pitcher.

More on SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
SCOUT uses regressed, defense-independent inputs to calculate FIP-like stats for both pitchers and hitters. Click here to learn more about it.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is, because both SCOUT+ and SCOUT- are presented relative to league, it allows one to compare the relative performances of players across multiple leagues — like in what follows, for example.

Regarding These Numbers
All the following numbers are final for 2012.

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Daily Notes, Featuring the Best Performances of A-Ball

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for Both the Class-A Leagues
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards for Both the Class-A Leagues
Regarding What This Is, First of All
What follows are the SCOUT Leaderboards for both the Class-A Leagues (the Midwest and South Atlantic ones, that is) combined.

Regarding a “SCOUT Leaderboard,” What That Is
SCOUT is metric designed to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous. A high SCOUT+ is good for a hitter; a low SCOUT- is good for a pitcher.

More on SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
SCOUT uses regressed, defense-independent inputs to calculate FIP-like stats for both pitchers and hitters. Click here to learn more about it.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is, because both SCOUT+ and SCOUT- are presented relative to league, it allows one to compare the relative performances of players across multiple leagues — like in what follows, for example.

Regarding These Numbers
All the following numbers are final for 2012.

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Daily Notes, Featuring That Information You Wanted

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. That Information You Wanted: SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

That Information You Wanted: SCOUT Leaderboards for High-A
Regarding What This Is, First of All
What follows is that information you asked about — i.e. the SCOUT Leaderboards for all three High-A Leagues (the California, Carolina, and Florida State) combined.

Regarding What Is SCOUT, Additionally
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes.

Regarding SCOUT, Another of Its Benefits
Another benefit of SCOUT is, because both SCOUT+ and SCOUT- are presented relative to league, it allows one to compare the relative performances of players across multiple leagues — like in what follows, for example.

Regarding These Numbers
All the following numbers are final for 2012.

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Daily Notes, Featuring a Moment of Weakness

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Tampa Bay at New York AL, 13:40 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Tampa Bay at New York AL, 13:40 ET
Regarding This Game, Why It’s Notable
One reason why this game is notable is on account of the presence of Playoff Implications™ in it.

Regarding the Rays, Their Playoff-Odds Status
The Rays are currently four games out of first place in the AL East and have, according to Cool Standings, a 26.7% chance of making the postseason (which includes their likelihood of qualifying for the wild-card play-in game).

Regarding the Yankers, Their Playoff-Odds Status
The Yankers currently occupy first place in the AL East and have, also according to Cool Standings, a 90.0% chance of making the postseason (including a ca. 70% probability of winning the division).

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Daily Notes, Featuring Playoff Implications™ in LA

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: St. Louis at Los Angeles NL, 21:10 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at Los Angeles NL, 21:10 ET
Regarding This Game, What’s Notable About It
What’s notable about this game is mostly the presence of Playoff Implications™ in it.

Regarding the Cardinals, Their Playoff-Odds Status
The Cardinals currently occupy the National League’s second wild-card spot and possess, according to Cool Standings, a 61.5% chance of qualifying for the play-in game.

Regarding the Dodgers, Their Playoff-Odds Status
The Dodgers are currently a game out of that second wild-card spot — the one occupied by the Cardinals, in fact — and possess, also according to Cool Standings, an 18.8% probability of qualifying for the play-in game.

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Daily Notes, With Resplendent Texas League Leaders

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Texas League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Texas League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes.

Regarding the Texas League, Its Regular Season
The Texas League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

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