Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Oakland at Chicago AL, 14:10 ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Oakland at Chicago AL, 14:10 ET
On What’s Happening in This Game
What’s happening in this game is the Oakland lineup — the Oakland lineup that features terrifying right-handed batters like Chris Carter (121 PA, 184 wRC+, .310 BABIP) and Yoenis Cespedes (328 PA, 144 wRC+, .358 BABIP) and Jonny Gomes (248 PA, 137 wRC+, .339 BABIP) — is once again facing a left-handed pitcher, in this case sling-shotting PYT Chris Sale (132.0 IP, 80 xFIP-, 3.9 WAR).

What the Author Would Assume
The author would assume that, owing to presence of the aforementioned and terrifying right-handed batters, that the Oakland lineup will have been — were one to examine the numbers — will have been particularly productive against left-handed pitchers.

What’s Actually the Case
In point of fact, it appears as though the Oakland offense has exhibited almost no platoon split whatsoever. Regard:

Vs. RHP: 2870 PA, 90 wRC+, .270 BABIP
Vs. LHP: 1440 PA, 92 wRC+, .280 BABIP

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Table of Contents
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1. An Amendment to Friday’s Notes in re Curveballs and Movement
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

An Amendment to Friday’s Notes in re Curveballs and Movement
What the Author Is Amending
In yesterday’s edition of the Notes, the author presented a table of what he called — in a flaccid attempt to be amusing, no doubt — what he called the “movingest” curveballs in the major leagues this year. To find the total movement of the the league’s curveballs, however, the author merely added the absolute value of every pitcher’s average horizontal movement on the curveball to the absolute value of the vertical movement of his curveball.

How the Author Should Have Found Total Movement, Probably
In point of fact, the author probably should have found the square root of the sum of the squared horizontal and vertical measurements — as humans have been doing for ca. 2500 years, that is.

Regarding This Oversight, To Whom the Author Apologizes About It
The author apologizes to the readership for this oversight, to Kyle Weiland (whose curveball displaces Brett Myers’s atop the leaderboard), and to Pythagoras of Samos.

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Table of Contents
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1. Finding: Baseball’s Movingest Curve
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Finding: Baseball’s Movingest Curve
A Question a Sad Person Might Ask
Tyler Chatwood starts tonight for Colorado, which, for most reasonable people, is rightly regarded as “Neither here nor there” so far as life events are concerned. Of note, however, is that Chatwood’s curveball is inducing grounders at a rate of 73.3% in a smallish sample — considerably higher than the league average of ca. 50% on that same pitch. “Why is Chatwood’s curve inducing so many grounders?” is a question that at least one person — one sad and lonely and sad person — might ask himself, alone at a computer, drinking a magnum of chablis all by himself on (hypothetically speaking) a Thursday night in August.

Not the Answer to That Question
The answer to the above-asked question is not “Because Tyler Chatwood’s curveball has more movement on it than every other pitcher’s.” However, in trying to answer that question, a sad and lonely and sad person will find himself answering another question — namely, “Which pitcher’s curveball does have the most movement on it?”

The Answer to That Second Question
The answer to that second question is “Brett Myers’s.”*

*Or, actually, as commenter Josh notes below, maybe it’s “Kyle Weiland.”

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Table of Contents
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1. Rousing Facts About No. 9 Hitters
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Rousing Facts About No. 9 Hitters
Regarding Dan Straily’s Wednesday Start, One Thing About It
The attentive reader will likely be aware by now that Oakland right-hander and emitter of soft, warm light Dan Straily’s Wednesday start was not — neither in the strictest sense of the phrase, nor even in the more liberal sense of it — was not what one’d call a “rousing success.” While he (i.e. Straily) managed to post a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the game, he also only induced two grounders of the 16 batted-balls he conceded (box). That he allowed four home runs is likely the product of unusually bad luck/bad pitches, but none of the home runs was decidedly cheap, either.

Regarding Dan Straily’s Wednesday Start, Another Thing
The other thing about Dan Straily’s Wednesday start is that there will be no further discussion of it in this edition of the Notes — except insofar as to how it relates to the home run he (i.e. Straily) conceded to Chris Iannetta.

Regarding Chris Iannetta’s Home Run
After Chris Iannetta’s second-inning home run, the Oakland television broadcast team suggested something to the effect that conceding a homer to the No. 9 hitter is an unfortunate thing to have happen. While likely true, it’s also the case that Chris Iannetta is not a very typical No. 9 hitter. Indeed, he’s posted a career 100 OPS+ (and a 101 wRC+), while the average No. 9 hitter in the American League has posted a 76 OPS+ this season, for example — and posted the exact same figure last year.

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Table of Contents
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1. On Sliders and the Usage of Said
2. Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

 
On Sliders and the Usage of Said
Regarding Why I’m Writing About This
In an effort to embody the spirit Carson’s NERD scores but not actually recreate it (too arduous), I was wondering what the single most dominant pitch in MLB might be. Dominating pitches can make for drama in a baseball game — the sort of drama that Carson’s NERD Scores reflect, in part.

The more I thought about it, the more I came to appreciate the way a “NERD Score” based entirely on the usage of a single type of pitch could be a shot of clarity in a convoluted world. It’s a simpler Score, from a simpler man.

What the Most Dominant Pitch Is, Then
It’s sliders, duh! Didn’t you read the title of this section?!

According to the weighted PITCHf/x values in this FanGraphs leaderboard, sliders have been worth 0.47 runs above average per 100 thrown in 2012. Knuckleballs have been worth more per 100 thrown, but they’re used less than any other pitch as they constitute just 0.4% of all pitches thrown, and pretty much all of their 2012 value comes from one man.

How Often Sliders Have Been Used in 2012 and Recent Years
On average in 2012, relievers have used a slider more often (18.1%) than starters (12.7%), possibly due to the stress it puts on the the arm.

Starters seem to max out at 40%; indeed, the recently-traded Ryan Dempster is this year’s leader amongst qualified starters: he throws his slider 39.2% of the time. Just eight pitchers have thrown the slider as over 30% of their pitches.

Among qualified releivers, Luke Gregerson throws it almost two-thirds of the time (66.8%), with Sergio Romo (66.1%) right behind him. In further contrast to starting pitchers, 32 qualified relievers have thrown the slider for at least 30% of their pitches in 2012.

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Table of Contents

1. The Mike Trout Leaderboard
2. Michael Fiers in a Notable Game of the Day, Among Other Such Games
3. Complete Schedule of Today’s Games

The Mike Trout Leaderboard
Why Does the Mike Trout Leaderboard Appear Today of All Days?
Because no one besides me is going to do it.

And because it’s Mike Trout’s birthday; he turns 21 today.

Where Might Mr. Trout Choose to Imbibe Legally, Now That He’s 21?
Why, quite fittingly at Trout River Brewing.

Which Other 20- or 21-Year-Old Has Done What Mike Trout Has Done?

The Mike Trout Leaderboard

As you can see, no 20- or 21- year old in the history of Major League Baseball has hit at least 19 HR, 21 doubles, and stolen at least 35 bases while posting an OPS over 1.000.

Eliminate the OPS requirement and it’s still only one other player who’s done what Trout has done: in 1972, as a 21-year-old centerfielder* for the Astros, Cesar Cedeno hit 39 doubles, 22 HR, and stole 55 bases while posting an OPS of .921 in 625 PA. Cedeno posted 8.8 WAR that year, but was out-fielded* by a couple of Reds that year and thus missed out in the MVP voting.

Trout should surpass Cedeno’s HR total and could approach his SB total. However, one would be remiss not to note that Cedeno was caught stealing 21 times in 1972; Trout has been caught just three times so far this year.

What Should You Do With the Mike Trout Leaderboard?
I recommend printing off several copies and distributing them around the office, or during show and tell at your next family reunion.

What Should You Do With the Printed Copies of the Mike Trout Leaderboard After Your Family and Co-Workers Are “Done” With Them?
You might papier-mâché them into a piñata to serve as a centerpiece of a party that celebrates the birth, life, and young achievements of Mike Trout.

Why Throw Such a Party?
For the enjoyment of said.

*These items were edited based on reader comments below. Thanks!
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Table of Contents
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1. Expected wRC+ for the Cape Cod League
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Expected wRC+ for the Cape Cod League
Regarding What This Is
What follows is a so-called Expected wRC+ Leaderboard for the very prestigious Cape Cod Baseball League of Cape Cod, a summer wood-bat league that, generally speaking, features the country’s best college prospects.

Regarding Expected wRC+, What That Could Possibly Be
One assumes that Expected wRC+ could be any number of things. In this particular case, however, it’s an attempt to represent in one number — a number a lot like wRC+, that is — something close to the “true talent” production of a player.

Regarding Expected wRC+, How the Author Calculated It
To calculate Expected wRC+, I found the home-run, walk, and strikeout rates for all the batters in the very prestigious Cape Cod League. After that, I attempted to find “expected” versions of those three rates by weighting each of them against league average until they reached their sample threshold for reliability.

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Table of Contents
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1. The Season So Far in Bunting
2. A Philosophical Query: Matt Harvey Versus Diminishing Returns
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Complete Schedule, Including an Unseemly Copout

The Season So Far in Bunting
People are still bunting! Let’s talk about it a little.

Managers Still Don’t Understand Leverage
Here is a graph displaying all sacrifice bunts in 2012, based on the inning they take place:

Shamefaced edit: Mitch correctly points out a flaw in my methodology, which includes National League pitchers in my data. Given the numbers I used, I have no easy way to remove them, so instead I’ve included here, via hypertextual link, the innings in which AL sacrifice bunts were made.

And Yet People Still Care About Lineup Construction
Here is a graph displaying the WPA of sacrifice bunts by each team in 2012 (click to enlarge):

Worst Sacrifice Bunt of the Year So Far: Alcides Escobar, 6/17/12. Game tied 2-2, top of the 11th, runners on first and third. Escobar bunts hard to first, and Franceour is nailed at home. The Royals go on to win anyway, 5-3, but the bunt is worth -0.23 WPA.

Best Sacrifice Bunt of the Year So Far: Erick Aybar, 5/25/12. Down 4-3 against closer Brandon League in the bottom of the 9th with runners on first and second and no outs, Aybar lays down a sacrifice, with League promptly throws into the seats. Everyone gets two bases and the Angels go on to win 6-4. The bunt, error and all, nets 0.39 WPA.

Sacrifice Bunting Is Not Good For The Economy or Baseball
Total WPA of all 1,435 sacrifice bunts laid down thus far in 2012: -11.1.

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Table of Contents
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1. A Brief Discussion Of Happiness
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

A Brief Discussion of Happiness
Given that we find ourselves in the tranquil moments between Dan Straily’s fine debut yesterday and Matt Harvey’s future deeds, this is an excellent moment to pause and reflect on our appreciation of the game of baseball. If one is available, I suggest grabbing a croissant or Danish as you begin to contemplate today’s arsenal of baseball activities.

To that end, and with the welfare of our thoughtful and intrepid readership in mind, I’ll paraphrase a few thoughts by Bertrand Russell, as compiled in his 1930 book “The Conquest of Happiness”. Although Russell himself did not follow the game, he supported it in a philosophical sense, including it in the “impersonal interests” which, by distracting us from the crucial and stressful elements of work, marriage and parenthood, provide an invaluable source of happiness. He relates the following mysterious anecdote:

Or consider again the passionate joy of the baseball fan: he turns to his newspaper with avidity, and the radio affords him the keenest thrills. I remember meeting for the first time one of the leading literary men of America, a man whom I had supposed from his books to be filled with melancholy. But it so happened that at that moment the most crucial baseball results were coming through on the radio; he forgot me, literature, and all the other sorrows of our sublunary life, and yelled with joy as his favourites achieved victory. Ever since this incident I have been able to read his books without feeling depressed by the misfortunes of his characters.

The identity of this fan is lost to history, though the names of Eliot (a miserable Red Sox fan) and Hemingway (a content Yankees fan) have been suggested.

More than escape, however, Russell prizes baseball (in theory) for its ability to create “a friendly interest in persons and things.” Specifically, baseball creates a bond of fellowship that connects us to the fan and faceless internet commenter beside us. It allows us to exist alongside others, to feel a sense of community, while maintaining our own individuality.

In summary, the purpose of this unsolicited commentary is to suggest that despite the fact that no GIF file may be created from today’s events, and that for the most part the contending teams are all facing lesser opponents that they are expected to defeat, we can still derive some happiness from today’s games, meaningless as they may appear. Please go and do so.

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Table of Contents
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1. The Briefest of Announcements
2. Featured Game: Toronto at Oakland, 22:05 ET ET
3. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
4. Today’s Complete Schedule

The Briefest of Announcements
The author will be attending the wedding of a good friend in Cambridge this weekend and then eating delicious seafood in Cape Cod after that. The mostly able Patrick Dubuque and Robert J. Baumann, both of NotGraphs, will cover the Notes on Saturday and Sunday (Dubuque) and then Tuesday and Wednesday (Baumann). Please treat them just as poorly as you would treat me.

Featured Game: Toronto at Oakland, 22:05 ET
Regarding This Game, What’s Notable About It
What’s notable about this game is how 23-year-old right-hander Daniel Straily is making his debut in it for Oakland.

Regarding Daniel Straily, Who That Is
Daniel Straily is a pitcher who posted a line very similar to this one at Double-A Midland this year: 85.1 IP, 11.39 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, 2.57 FIP. And a line almost precisely like this one at Triple-A Sacramento (also this year): 53.0 IP, 11.38 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9, 2.20 FIP.

A Thing the Reader Might Enjoy About Daniel Straily
One thing the reader might enjoy about Daniel Straily is that, while he’s not particularly big (he’s listed at 6-foot-2), his heart is actually 10-feet tall.

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