Archive for Daily Notes

Daily Notes: Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per ZiPS
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’re revisiting that effort.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively. Yesterday, we considered here the most improved pitchers according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.” Below are the most improved pitchers according to ZiPS.

Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration. Other note: only pitchers who were assigned both a preseason and rest-of-season projection have been considered.

5. Derek Holland, LHP, Texas
ZiPS (Pre): 170.2 IP, 7.43 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 1.42 HR/9, 4.53 ERA
ZiPS (RoS): 47.0 IP, 7.80 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, 4.02 ERA
Notes: Holland’s strikeout and walk rates this season are better, but not significantly better, than in past seasons. His ground-ball rate has actually decreased. What’s mostly improved for Holland is the rate at which fly balls have become home runs: the left-hander has recorded a 7.3% HR/FB this season, after a 15.2% mark last one.

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Daily Notes: Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’re revisiting that effort.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively. Below are the most improved pitchers according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.”

Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration.

5. John Lackey, RHP, Boston
Steamer (Pre): 143.0 IP, 5.89 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.42 ERA
Steamer (RoS): 43.0 IP, 7.47 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9, 3.77 ERA
Notes: Lackey’s present strikeout rate of 22.2% is the highest such figure he’s recorded since 2005, when he posted a 22.3% mark. His current 81 xFIP- would be the lowest of his career by that measure.

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Daily Notes: Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’re revisiting that effort.

In yesterday’s edition: the league’s most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.” Today: that same thing, but for ZiPS.

Note: only players with both a preseason and rest-of-season projection have been considered. Other note: any player either (a) presently absent from a major-league roster or (b) with fewer than 60 projected plate appearances remaining has been omitted from consideration.

5. Mike Carp, Cornerman, Boston
ZiPS (Pre): 506 PA, .239/.304/.394 (.286 BABIP), .305 wOBA, 97 wRC+
ZiPS (RoS): 105 PA, .274/.335/.471 (.331 BABIP), .350 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Notes: Owing to a switch in parks from Safeco to Fenway, Carp’s raw wOBA differential is greater proportionately than his wRC+ differential — which is what makes him fifth on this list, as opposed to second. Still, he’s been excellent for Boston. ZiPS, which is rather aggressive about integrating particularly low or high seasonal BABIPs into rest-of-season projections, appears to remain rather aggressive about integrating Carp’s rather high .410 BABIP into his rest-of-season projection.

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Daily Notes: Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’ll revisit that effort.

In this edition: the league’s most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.”*

Note: only players with both a preseason and rest-of-season projection have been considered. Other note: any player absent currently from a major-league roster has been omitted from consideration.

5. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland
Steamer (Pre): 403 PA, .250/.315/.421 (.279 BABIP), .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 166 PA, .264/.336/.441 (.294 BABIP), .340 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Notes: Despite hitting quite poorly in the first half of 2012, Donaldson produced a slash-line of .290/.356/.489 (.323 BABIP) and 136 wRC+ over 194 plate appearances in the second half. The third baseman has improved slighly even upon that in 2013 and is projected to post end-of-season WAR totals of 5.8 and 5.9 by ZiPS and Steamer, respectively.

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Daily Notes: Danny Salazar Night in America

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Danny Salazar Night in America
2. Other Notable Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Danny Salazar Night in America
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce that Cleveland right-hander Danny Salazar, of the Santo Domingo Salazars, is starting tonight (Monday) at 8:10pm ET against Minnesota — a game which is available gratis, care of MLB.TV.

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Daily Notes: Featuring Analysis from the Author’s Grandfather

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Analysis from the Author’s Grandfather
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Analysis from the Author’s Grandfather
The author, as he writes this, is presently sitting across a breakfast table from his 92-year-old grandfather, a man who not only has opinions, but whose opinions themselves have opinions.

What follows is a small collection of that same grandfather’s opinions on the Boston Red Sox and AL East.

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Daily Notes: Regarding Alex Wood’s Resume, Thus Far

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Regarding Alex Wood’s Resume, Thus Far
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Regarding Alex Wood’s Resume, Thus Far
Introduction
Left-hander Alex Wood, 22, starts tonight (Saturday) against Miami at 7:10pm ET. What follows is a brief examination of his impressive, if short, professional resume.

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Daily Notes: Speed and Defense Leaders, Laggards

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Speed and Defense Leaders, Laggards
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Speed and Defense Leaders, Laggards
Introduction
This past November the author wrote a piece examining the value of elite speed as measured in wins — which it to say, those sorts of wins as might be produced by baserunning and (in this case) outfield defense.

What follows is a sort of conceptual relative of that brief study, insofar as the object has been to identify those players who have been most productive this season by means of baserunning and defensive ability alone. What the author has done is find, for each player, both his baserunning runs and also his total of defensive runs saved (UZR) with the positional adjustment from WAR included.

While the caveats regarding single-season defensive numbers absolutely apply in this instance, one will also observe that, by including positional adjustments, as well, that the effect of the volatility of those same numbers over a small sample is somewhat muted.

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Daily Notes: Carlos Martinez to Make First Major-League Start

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Carlos Martinez to Make First Major-League Start
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Carlos Martinez to Make First Major-League Start
Introduction
Right-handed St. Louis prospect Carlos Martinez, who’s split time this season as a starter in the minors and also as a member of the Cardinal bullpen, makes his first major-league start today (Thursday) at 8:15pm ET against the Los Angeles Nationals.

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Daily Notes: A Sober Dispatch from the Corey Kluber Society

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. A Sober Dispatch from the Corey Kluber Society
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

A Sober Dispatch from the Corey Kluber Society
Adherent always to noted French poet and inventor of the frown Charles Baudelaire’s pronouncement that “Il faut être toujours ivre,”* it’s without joy that the Corey Kluber Society announces quite soberly that Corey Kluber himself has been placed on the disabled list for an indefinite period of time with a sprain of the right middle finger.

*Roughly translated: “One must always be drunk.”

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