This news was expected, but Bob Dutton confirms that Joakim Soria will have Tommy John Surgery on April 3rd and is going to miss the entire 2012 season. Given that the average recovery timetable for this injury is 12-18 months, it’s likely that Soria will not be ready for the start of the 2013 season as well.

Soria will be an interesting free agent next winter once the Royals decline their $8 million club option. His prior success will mean that there will be teams interested in picking up the tab for the rest of his rehab in order to get his services for the second half of next year – the Yankees did this with David Aardsma this winter, for instance. UCL replacement has become advanced enough that many pitchers are able to return to something close to their prior form, and Soria is just 28-years-old, so he should still be able to coax a few more good years out of his arm.

The Royals have been getting a lot of grief for not trading Soria before this occurred, and in retrospect, I’m sure they wish they would have moved him when they had the chance. However, it’s also important to understand that injuries are very difficult to predict, and trading young relievers is not always guaranteed to bring back a premium return. After all, Kenny Williams got a lot of flack for dealing Sergio Santos for Nestor Molina this winter. We can’t criticize both rebuilding GMs who trade young cheap closers and rebuilding GMs who keep young cheap closers. The Royals probably should have traded Soria, but this wasn’t in an inevitable outcome, and we can’t fault the Royals for not being able to accurately predict the future.

It is to say nothing new or bold to note that spring-training stats and performances are to be regarded as one might regard a neighborchild holding a pair of tweezers for no discernible reason — which is to say, with suspicion.

There is, first of all, the issue of limited sample size (which leaves authors like the present one performing regression gymnastics). Beyond that, spring training offers a wider variation in the level of competition. One could, for example, face Roy Halladay and then both Austin Hyatt and B.J. Rosenberg in the same game, producing a 2-for-3 effort even after a three-pitch strikeout against the major leaguer of that group. Finally, there is also the question of player intent. As was noted on Twitter recently (by whom, I’ve unfortunately forgotten), Barry Bonds posted a 2:13 BB:K in 45 at-bats during the 2007 edition of spring baseball — before producing a 89:54 UIBB:K ratio that season. There’s reason to believe that Bonds, as many veterans are likely to do, was experimenting with this or that part of his game.

Now, with all of those reasonable statements stated, allow me to submit one that is slightly less so (although only by a little) — namely that, for players who are competing for their baseballing lives, spring-training performances are a relevant piece of the overall information puzzle.

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After more than 17 years as a fixture in Atlanta Braves baseball, Chipper Jones has announced that he will retire as a player after the 2012 season. His $7 million club option for next year would have vested at $9 million with 123 games played this summer, but apparently enough is enough.

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Chris Carpenter has been shut down with a bulging disc in his neck. He’s likely to open up the season on the disabled list, and the Cardinals may have to turn to Lance Lynn for help in the starting rotation. This continues a disturbing trend in his surgery-speckled career, but using past players that have suffered this rarer injury as a guidepost can be problematic.

Over the past two years, Carpenter has been healthier than he’s ever been. The 472.1 innings he logged in 2010 and 2011 — not counting the postseason — is about ten innings more than he managed in 2005 and 2006. What happened in 2007? Tommy John surgery. The third-most productive two-year stretch had him put up 391 innings between 2000 and 2001. 2002 then brought SLAP surgery on his labrum, and follow-up surgical scar tissue removal.

Of course the “n” on this is tiny. He has just five instances of managing more than 375 innings over two consecutive seasons in his career, and major surgery or injury followed three of them. But we aren’t trying to predict how all players perform after 375 innings, we’re just observing how this one specific player has held up to larger work loads. The answer seems plain.

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Texas fans, its breath-holding time – according to Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas, Neftali Feliz left today’s game after three innings because of “right shoulder stiffness.” Feliz was scheduled to pitch the fourth, but was replaced by Neal Cotts instead.

Because the game was in Mesa, which is not one of the parks that has Pitch F/x installed in Arizona, we can’t compare his velocity in today’s start to his prior spring training outings. However, Durrett notes that the stadium gun had him sitting between 93-95, and his performance seemed okay, as he struck out two batters in three scoreless innings. Both of those are good signs, and this could be nothing more than general spring training aches and pains from a guy getting stretched out after spending last year in the bullpen.

However, the Rangers have the ability to be cautious here. They have the deepest starting staff in baseball, and it wouldn’t be overly challenging for them to let Alexi Ogando or Scott Feldman begin the year in the rotation if Feliz needed more time to get stretched out. The Rangers schedule in April will require them to have a fifth starter from the beginning of the season, but their alternatives mean that Feliz doesn’t necessarily have to be one of those five. They were planning on limiting his innings this season anyway, so giving him some time off at the beginning of the season might not be a bad idea anyway.

Even if this turns out to be nothing, the Rangers have the ability to take it easy with Feliz. They should probably take advantage of their depth, because if Feliz turns out to not be able to handle a full time rotation job, they’ll need guys like Ogando and Feldman to make some starts during the season anyway.

The Texas Rangers have locked up one of their key players. Weeks after the team has put off negotiations with Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, the Texas Rangers have signed Derek Holland to a five-year, $28.5 million deal. The extension will cover Holland’s remaining arbitration years, and his first year of free agency. It also includes club options for 2017 ($11 million) and 2018 (11.5 million). The 25-year-old starter had a breakout season for the Rangers last year, tossing 198 innings and posting a 3.6 WAR. While Holland isn’t considered an ace just yet, he won’t have to become one to live up to this contract.

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The Wilpons and Madoff trustee Irving Picard reached a settlement today. Though both sides might try to spin the case as a win, it’s the Wilpons that should be happier about how this case came to an end.

Irving Picard might choose to focus on the fact that the settlement required of the Wilpons that they pay $162 million to his clients, those that lost money in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzy scheme. It’s true that this $162 million number is impressive in some ways. It’s almost twice the $83 million that Judge Jed Rakoff basically guaranteed the trustee in his first landmark ruling in the case. It also represents the profits that the Wilpons’ many Madoff accounts made in a six-year window — settling the debate about two- and six-year windows that has been prevalent in this clawback case.

But it’s still an almost un-mitigated win for the Wilpons.

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You can try to dispense of these notes on the Alcides Escobar extension, but you won’t be able to: as the title of this post suggests, they’re indispensable.

Regarding Alcides Escobar, The Extension He Signed
The 25-year-old shortstop Escobar and the Royals agreed Thursday to a four-year, $10.5 million extension that includes a pair of club options that could bring the overall value of the contract to $21.75 million. Per the Associated Press, “Escobar will make $1 million this season and $3 million each of the next three seasons. The options are for $5.25 million in 2016 and $6.5 million in 2017 with $500,000 buyouts each year.”

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In the surprise move of the spring to date, Andy Pettitte is returning to the Yankees for another season. As Jack Curry of YES first reported, Pettitte has signed a minor-league contract with the Yankees that could potentially pay $2.5 million this season. Although Pettitte likely won’t be ready to start the season with the Yankees — he’ll need extended spring training or a minor league stint to get his arm strength built up — he should add another quality arm in Joe Girardi’s starting rotation.

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The first four spots of the Tigers’ rotation is pretty well set with Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello, but the club is holding what amounts to a competition for the fifth spot this spring. Right-hander Jacob Turner — the team’s top prospect and the 18th best prospect in baseball according to our own Marc Hulet — was in the running for the job until the team shut him down with shoulder tendinitis today. George Sipple of The Detroit Free Press has the news…

“Jacob had difficulty getting loose in his game,” (head trainer Kevin) Rand said. “He didn’t feel like he was able to finish pitches. More the second (inning) than the first, but he didn’t feel comfortable from the beginning.

“We’ve shut him down. He’s been examined. We’ve put him on some medication. He’s not going to pick up a baseball this week. We’re going to try and get his range of motion back. See what it takes. He’s got some tendinitis in his shoulder.”

Manager Jim Leyland acknowledged that the injury hurts Turner’s chances of making the club, which is obvious. The 20-year-old has allowed six runs on six hits and six walks in just four innings so far this month, striking out only a pair. He made three generally ineffective starts for Detroit last season (8.53 ERA and 6.03 FIP in 12.2 IP) and had seen his name surface in trade rumors this winter.

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