Author Archive

Edgar Renteria’s Underrated Career

Although he didn’t play a single game in 2012, it wasn’t until yesterday that Edgar Renteria officially announced his retirement from baseball. The long-time big leaguer told RCN Television in his native Colombia that “I’m definitely retired from baseball and it will soon be announced in the majors … I decided to retire from baseball and try to spend all my time with my family.”

Renteria, 37, had a very long and productive career, racking up 39.6 WAR in 2,152 games across parts of 16 seasons. He retires as a .286/.343/.398 (95 wRC+) career hitter with some dynamite individual seasons to his credit — specifically his 128 wRC+ and 6.9 WAR in 2003. If you want to cherry-pick some end-points, Renteria was the fourth best shortstop in baseball from 2002-2007 at 23.7 WAR. Only Derek Jeter (29.8), Miguel Tejada (27.2), and Jimmy Rollins were better (26.4)*.

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2013 Positional Power Rankings: Center Field

Due to an unfortunate data error, the numbers in this story did not include park factors upon publication. We have updated the data to include the park factors, and the data you see below is now correct. We apologize for the mistake.

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For an explanation of this series, please read the introductory post. The data is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Center field is one of the most star-laden positions in baseball at the moment, but a whole lot of those stars are dealing with injuries or coming off down years or trying to change positions. It also hurts that arguably the best player in the game figures to spend most of his time in left field this summer, but so be it. There is still plenty of center field talent — third base was the only position with more 5+ WAR players in 2012 — with a few interesting youngsters due to get regular playing time this year.

The league average center fielder hit .264/.328/.414 (101 wRC+) last summer, so the offensive bar is low compared to the corner spots. Defense is a big separator between the good and great players, though I feel like no position is more prone to the surprise 4+ WAR season. We’ve seen quite a few players pop-up out of nowhere to post star-caliber seasons driven largely by their center field defensive ratings, which can be a sketchy proposition. The established center field stars are among the best players in the world and perennial MVP candidates, so it’s no surprise teams with those players dominate the top of our rankings.

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White Sox Looking to Lock Up Chris Sale

From the esteemed Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago:

White Sox pitcher Chris Sale confirmed Tuesday his representatives have had discussions with the club about a contract extension.

(snip)

“We’ve been kind of back and forth but nothing too crazy right now,” Sale said Tuesday when asked about extension talks.

Think of the headline potential. “Sale Extended: Now Through 2018!” That is SEO gold right there.

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The Mets’ Low-Risk Bullpen Rebuild

Last offseason, Mets GM Sandy Alderson spent just $17.8 million on Major League free agents. Most of that when to Frank Francisco ($12 million) and Jon Rauch ($3.5 million), and the club also absorbed Ramon Ramirez’s salary ($2.75 million) in the ill-fated Angel Pagan trade. Those three were supposed to join incumbents Bobby Parnell and Tim Byrdak to give the Amazin’s a solid relief unit, but instead the new additions combined to post an underwhelming 4.34 ERA (3.89 FIP) and 0.3 WAR in 163.2 innings.

Francisco, 33, signed a two-year contract last winter and will remain with the Mets this year. He had offseason elbow surgery and the team is openly concerned about whether he will be ready in time for Opening Day. Both Rauch and Ramirez have been allowed to walk as free agents though, plus Byrdak is expect to miss most (if not all) of 2013 following shoulder surgery. For most of the winter it appeared Parnell and rookie left-hander Josh Edgin were the only locks for the team’s Opening Day bullpen, but Alderson has gone to work in the last two weeks by signing low-risk and relatively high-reward relief options.

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Nick Johnson Retires, FanGraphs Weeps

Eight times on base. Had Nick Johnson reached base just eight more times in his ten-year career, he would have become just the 41st player in history to leave the game with a .400+ OBP (min. 3,000 PA). Eight times on base in ten years. I say we blame the Orioles, because it was with them that he reached base just 33 times in 102 PA last season (.326 OBP). He went into the season with a career .401 OBP.

Johnson, 34, retired from baseball earlier this week according to WFAN’s Sweeny Murti. He leaves the game as a favorite of statheads everywhere thanks to pure hitting ability — career .268/.399/.441 (126 wRC+) — that never quite received the respect in deserved. Quotes, like this one said to our own David Laurila last summer, stand out as well…

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Orioles Continue Inactive Offseason By Signing Jair Jurrjens

Despite surprising everyone by winning 93 games and qualifying for the postseason last year, the Orioles haven’t done much of anything this winter. Other than re-signing Nate McLouth, all of their moves have been small trades (Danny Valencia, Trayvon Robinson, Yamaico Navarro), minor league signings (Daniel Schlereth, Zach Braddock, Travis Ishikawa), or waiver claims (Luis Martinez, Alexi Casilla). Their most notable moves to date were extending GM Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter through 2018.

Baltimore continued their nondescript offseason yesterday by agreeing to sign right-hander Jair Jurrjens to a one-year contract worth $1.5 million that could reach $4 million through incentives. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports had the scoop. Jurrjens was just awful with the Braves last season, pitching to a 6.89 ERA and 5.64 FIP with nearly as many walks (18) as strikeouts (19) in 48.1 innings. They sent him to Triple-A not once but twice, where he managed a 4.98 ERA and 4.62 FIP in 72.1 innings. His season effectively ended in early-August due to a groin strain.

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David Murphy: Next Ranger In Line For An Extension?

The Rangers have not been shy about keeping their own core players in recent years. For every Josh Hamilton or Mike Napoli or C.J. Wilson that departs there’s an Elvis Andrus or Ian Kinsler or Matt Harrison who stays. They’ve been aggressive about signing players on the right side of 30 to multi-year extensions while eschewing the guys approaching their decline years. David Murphy could be the exception to that rule though, as assistant GM Thad Levine told MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan the two sides have had some contract talks this winter. Nothing is imminent, however.

Murphy, 31, enjoyed what was almost certainly a career year in 2012, setting new full season career bests in AVG (.304), OBP (.380), SLG (.479), wRC+ (127), walk rate (10.4%), UZR (+7.7), and DRS (+6). He also managed a 129 wRC+ against left-handers that was wildly out of line compared to the 62 wRC+ he managed against southpaws from 2008-2011. A .433 BABIP in 75 plate appearances will do that for a guy. Murphy’s been around a while and has established himself as a very good platoon outfielder given his consistently strong work against righties (career 119 wRC+) and average or better defensive ratings.

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Shaun Marcum’s Winter of Silence

Shaun Marcum is a pretty good Major League pitcher. He’s been in the show since 2005 and owns a 3.76 ERA and 4.25 FIP in a little over 900 career innings. That’s a 90 ERA- and 101 FIP-, respectively. Like most pitchers though, it took Marcum a few years to really hit his stride. Since 2008 he’s pitched to a 3.57 ERA (88 ERA-) and a 3.97 FIP (97 FIP-) in a bit less than 700 innings. He did miss the entire 2009 season due to Tommy John surgery, but that’s a solidly above-average performance.

Marcum just turned 31 years old last month and is a free agent this offseason. You probably knew that already, but a lot of casual fans might not since there have been very few mentions of his name on various rumor-churning sites. Casual fans also might not realize Marcum is a pretty good pitcher either, but that’s besides the point. We have ourselves a perfectly capable right-handed starter who has been worth at least 3.0 RA9-wins in five of the last six seasons he’s pitched and is having trouble finding a job. It doesn’t make sense, especially with only five weeks to go in the offseason.

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Rebuilding The Brewers’ Bullpen

No bullpen took more losses (33) or blew more saves (29) than the Brewers’ relief unit last season. A total of 18 different relievers pitched to a combined 4.66 ERA, the worst mark in the big leagues. Unsurprisingly, GM Doug Melvin set out to remake the team’s bullpen this offseason, and that process started by jettisoning Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Veras, Manny Parra, Kameron Loe, and a handful of others. The only notable holdovers are hard-throwing right-handers John Axford and Jim Henderson.

Melvin has tackled his bullpen rebuild in a number of ways. It started with a pair of De Los Santoses late last season — Fautino was acquired from the Athletics (for George Kottaras) and Miguel was scooped up off waivers. Right-hander Arcenio Leon was claimed off waivers in early-November and a few days later minor league free agent Michael Olmsted was given a big league contract. Melvin acquired non-tender bait Burke Badenhop from the Rays in early-December, and in recent weeks he jumped into free agency to sign a pair of former Nationals southpaws: Tom Gorzelanny and Mike Gonzalez. Several others (Jim Hoey, Zach Kroenke, Frankie de la Cruz, Travis Webb) were given minor league deals along the way.

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Brad Lidge’s Memorable Moment

If we were to sit down and create a list of the five most memorable baseball moments of the 21st century, the home run Albert Pujols hit off Brad Lidge in Game Three Five of the 2005 NLCS would be on it. It’s not even a question of if it would be on the list, but where. Baseball has a way of making your jaw drop — think David Freese, Aaron Boone, Bill Buckner — and that homer certainly qualifies. The crowd going dead silent in an instant, Andy Pettitte saying “oh my gosh,” the thud of the ball off the window … we remember it like it was yesterday.

Fair or not, that homer is the first thing that jumps to everyone’s mind when they think of Lidge. He was arguably the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball at the time, pitching to a 2.10 ERA (2.44 FIP) with 14.15 K/9 (39.4 K%) in 165.1 innings from 2004-2005. His 157 strikeouts in 2004 were the most by a pitcher who pitched exclusively in relief since Mark Eichhorn struck out 166 batters in 1986. Eichhorn did it in 157 innings. Lidge did it in 94.2. Carlos Marmol is the only pitcher to come within 25 strikeouts of Lidge’s total since 2004 (138 in 2010).

Earlier this month, Lidge quietly announced his retirement from baseball following a career that spanned parts of eleven seasons. He ranks 37th on the all-time saves list with 225, sandwiched right between Hoyt Wilhelm and Gene Garber. At some point next year Huston Street will pass him, then J.J. Putz will pass him the year after. Lidge is third on the Astros all-time saves list behind Billy Wagner and Dave Smith, and fourth on the Phillies all-time saves list behind Jose Mesa, Steve Bedrosian, and Mitch Williams. His place among history’s greatest closers won’t get him remembered, but that homer will.

Personally, there are three things about Lidge that stick out to me. First, it’s that utterly insane 2004 effort. Craig Kimbrel just had a season for the ages, but in 2004 Lidge pitched to level that wasn’t too far below Kimbrel’s while throwing 51% more innings in much less pitcher-friendly era. Secondly, it’s the strikeouts. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 600 career innings, a list that is 1,741 players deep, Lidge’s 11.92 K/9 and 30.9 K% are tops among right-handers and second overall to Wagner. During the PITCHf/x era, batters whiffed at his slider with more than 45% of their swings. That doesn’t even include his peak 2004-2005 seasons.

Third, it’s how that homer by Pujols supposedly screwed him up. Lidge allowed runs in two of his next three postseason outings that year after allowing runs in two of his first 13 playoff games. He pitched to a 5.28 ERA and 3.79 FIP the following season, which was wildly out of line with his career norms, and was demoted out of the closer’s role. Pujols had broken him, as the story goes. A year later he was traded to the Phillies for a package headlined by Michael Bourn only to have a brilliant 2008 campaign (1.95 ERA and 2.41 FIP) that resulted in a World Championship. If the Pujols homer is the first mental image you see when you think of Lidge, this is probably second.

Lidge, who turns 36 this weekend, was never really the same after that 2008 season, though there was no jaw-dropping moment to build a narrative around. He was relatively young but his arm was not — throwing slider after slider in 65+ appearances year after year takes a toll on a pitcher physically. Very few guys are built to throw 50%+ sliders over the long haul. Injuries were starting to pop up, his command was starting to slip, all sorts of perfectly normal age-relate things started to set in. Lidge was broken for good this time, but not because of Pujols.

Fittingly, Lidge’s final act as a Major Leaguer was a strikeout. He unceremoniously whiffed Freddy Garcia in extra innings of an interleague game against the Yankees this summer after allowing the go-ahead runs to score. Washington designated him for assignment a day later and no team picked him for the remainder of the season. Lidge retires with 799 strikeouts, 225 saves, several seasons as one of baseball’s most dominant relievers, a handful of Cy Young and MVP votes, and one really bad pitch that he’d like to have back. Despite a great career, he’ll always be remembered for being on the wrong end of one of baseball’s most memorable moments.