The Detroit Tigers
2010 MLB Record: 81-81 (3rd in the AL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 28th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
The Prospects
1. Jacob Turner, RHP
Acquired: 2009 1st round (Missouri HS)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A/A+
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Likelihood to Reach Peak: 40%
This is an article providing detail on the top tiered Detroit Tigers prospects. It is meant as an introductory to fans that don’t follow the farm system, and focuses on the potential WAR they could ultimately contribute as Major Leaguers.
One staple of the David Chadd era as Tigers scouting director has been big, hard-throwing pitchers. It’s no secret in the industry that Chadd uses every chance he can — and almost every dollar — to get guys like Scott Green, Casey Crosby, Jacob Turner, guys with big traditional pitching frames with already-present big league velocity. In many cases, like with Rick Porcello or Andrew Miller, it was Chadd paying top dollar for talent when other teams were scared off by bonus demands. So, in one sense, the guy loves big pitchers.
But, as he proved this year, the trend isn’t refined to hurlers, though he hasn’t had an elite offensive prospect in his system since Cameron Maybin. Chadd believes that first rounders are a bargain at any price, so if he has to break a record to get forty-fourth overall pick Nick Castellanos signed for top five money, he’ll do it if the talent is there. In 2009, he didn’t have a hitter in the first round that appealed like Castellanos, but the team went big dollars on sixth rounder Daniel Fields. And because of it, for the first time since a time I can’t remember, the Tigers have two must-follow offensive prospects. Trust that Chadd has the top-end pitchers, too, and you see an organization healthy at the top.
The Houston Astros
2010 MLB Record: 76-86 (4th in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 29th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
1. Jordan Lyles, RHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (South Carolina HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Likelihood to Reach Peak: 50%
Notes: Lyles reached Triple-A at the age of 19 and a did a nice job of holding his own with a 3.86 FIP in 31.2 innings of work (despite a .406 BABIP). The right-hander spent the majority of the year in Double-A where he posted a strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9 in 127.0 innings while also showing good control (2.48 BB/9). Lyles doesn’t have a huge ceiling but he profiles as a durable No. 3 starter, who could post a few 4.0 WAR seasons during his peak. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, and changeup. Lyles could stand to use his legs more in his delivery, as his current delivery puts a lot of strain on his upper body. Despite his solid control numbers, he does not have an overly-fluid pitching motion.
The Chicago White Sox
2010 MLB Record: 88-74 (2nd in the AL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 30th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
1. Chris Sale, LHP
Acquired: 2010 1st round (Florida Gulf Coast U)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5
Likelihood to Reach Peak: 50%
Notes: Sale not only reached the Majors in his draft year – he dominated. The lefty pitched just 10.1 innings in the minors before posting a 2.74 FIP in 23.1 innings. He missed a lot of bats (12.34 K/9) while showing respectable control (3.86 BB/9). A starter in college, Sale pitched out of the bullpen in pro ball and saw his fastball velocity climb from the low 90’s and sit around 96 mph. He also displayed a sharp slider, at times, and a promising changeup (which he’ll need to combat right-handed batters). He’s expected to spend some time in the upper minors in 2011 while transitioning back to the starting rotation. If he can maintain the velocity bump as a starter (while also showing the +50% ground-ball rate), he could be a real steal as the 13th overall pick of the draft. With that said, he doesn’t have the smoothest throwing motion and there is a little bit of effort that could be placing added stress on his elbow. At times, Sale also drops his arm a bit more on the changeup.
Today begins the offseason prospect coverage at FanGraphs. This winter, we decided to take a two-pronged approach to the coverage, since we have two writers covering this stuff. You’ll be happy to know we will again have Marc Hulet rank the top 10 prospects for all 30 organizations (this time presenting them in power ranking format). The rankings are Marc’s own, because he’s the only one of the two brave enough to tackle them. Bryan Smith will flank the rankings with a pair of articles on each team: one a micro view at the top prospects (for the fan whose minor league interest is only centered on the top couple players) and a macro view on the system (for the farm-obsessives). Marc or Bryan will sporadically have chats to discuss recently written-about organizations. The order will not be revealed in advance.
Chicago White Sox
Affiliates: Charlotte (Triple-A), Birmingham (Double-A), Winston-Salem (High-A), Kannapolis (Low-A), Bristol (Appy) and Great Falls (Pioneer).
The White Sox have a hole at third base, and a prospect is likely to fill the position. If Paul Konerko or A.J. Pierzynski were to bolt the South Side, the team hase enough youth to compete for the jobs. And when Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton were hurt in September, a guy that still qualifies for prospect status dominated and racked up four saves. For the casual follower of the White Sox farm system, things are looking pretty healthy in the player development department.
For those sabermetrically oriented baseballing enthusiasts who enjoy moonlighting as prospect mavens, the Arizona Fall League — and the various Caribbean leagues, too, for that matter — represent a conundrum. On the one hand, it’s exciting to see so many young, talented players competing against one another; on the other, the small sample sizes prevent us from making authoritative statements about the respective players’ performances in said leagues, even though we’d like so badly to do just that.
Because of these limitations, we’re almost entirely at the mercy of the Bryans Smiths of the world. No, it’s not “mangy scoundrels” I’m talking about — although that’s certainly an appropriate description of him — but rather “authentic prospect mavens.” Certainly, Smith’s observations on the AFL are helpful, and first-hand accounts are preferable to numbers at this stage.
But if we really insist on ever using winter-league stats — even in the most offhanded fashion — allow me to propose a method by which we might use a hybrid of scouting and, uh, stats-ing.
By way of Russell Carleton’s (a.k.a. Pizza Cutter’s) often referenced, now archived post on the reliability of sample sizes in baseball, we learn that two of the three triple-slash stats — on-base and slugging percentages — don’t become reliable until around 500 plate appearances. That is, 500 plate appearances is the level at which, in Carleton’s words, the “stat can be considered to be saying something about an individual player.” As for batting average, Carleton found that it doesn’t become reliable until somewhere around 1000 PA.
Herein lies at least one of the problems with winter-league stats. Because the AFL leaders in plate appearances rarely top even the 125-PA threshold, we’re forced to regress them over two-thirds of the way back to league average. That creates little in the way of meaningful separation.
An alternative, however, is to look at those categories that (a) become reliable more quickly, but also (b) tell us the sorts of things we like to know about a prospect — namely, the quality of his tools. In this case, we can probably say at least something about contact- and power-hitting — via strikeout and home-run rate, respectively.
Per Carleton’s study, strikeout rate becomes reliable at the 150-PA threshold; home-run rate, at 300 PAs. Those numbers are more friendly than the necessary samples for the triple-slash stats. Even after regressing the remainder of the way* to league average, the resulting adjusted strikeout and home-run rates are distributed widely enough to help us make some kind of observation about player performance in Arizona.
*Which would be, using strikeout rate, for example, [[150 – PA * (Lg K-Rate)] + [PA * K-Rate]] / 150.
Note, please, that there are a number of caveats to make here. First, is that the player pool — i.e. almost exclusively young and developing players — might very well alter the reliability thresholds of the different metrics. Second, there’s the chance that, because the players are being observed by coaches and working in different roles than they might usually, that they are performing differently than they would under different circumstances. (See Chris Carpenter’s comments, noted in Bryan Smith’s recent AFL Notebook.) Third, the parks in Arizona are weird. Does that change things? I don’t know, entirely. But finally — on the subject of my fallibility — there’s the distinct possibility that I, Carson Cistulli, am the sort of person who knows just enough to be dangerous. I think I’m being responsible here, but I also think having garlic as a pizza topping counts as a serving of vegetables. So, that’s what you’re dealing with here.
With all that as preface, allow me to introduce what I’ll call SCOUT. To devise it, what I’ve done is to find the regressed strikeout and home-run rates (xK% and xHR%) for all the qualified batters in the AFL. Then, for each player, I’ve found the z-score (that is, standard deviations from the mean) in xK% and xHR%, and averaged them (i.e. the z-scores) together. SCOUT is the result of that.
By that method, here are are the current leaders in the AFL:
And the laggards, too:
What I think SCOUT is able to capture — and this is why I think it might have some value — is a couple of underlying skills that inform batting production. Like, consider the case of Conor Gillaspie. His slash-line (.231/.279/.410) is pretty bad. Still, given his strikeout rate (just 7.1% so far, unadjusted) and his pair of homers, we know that Gillaspie probably hasn’t had a horrible fall so far — at least so far as his contact and power tools go. SCOUT helps us see that, I think.
Conversely, among the laggards, we see that Kris Negron is having some success, posting a .282/.364/.538 thus far. But most of that is coming from batted-ball success that he’s unlikely to sustain. In fact, Negron has struck out in a just over a third of his plate appearances. Though one might be tempted to say that he’s off to a good start, there appears to be little reason to make that claim — besides his rather unreliable slash stats, that is. Perhaps, at the very least, we can say that Gillaspie is demonstrating greater success so far as his contact- and power-hitting tools go. That’s not a totally unhelpful remark.
What are SCOUT’s (limited) uses, ultimately? They’re two-fold, I think. First, I’ll be using the number — in addition to, maybe instead of, slash stats — in the offseason notes I’ll be providing here. Second, it can serve, I think, as the tiniest contribution to the much larger discussion over how we might use numbers to complement scouting.
Tomorrow, I’ll begin the offseason notes in earnest and begin looking at some of the leaders more closely.
In my two most recent dispatches from the front lines of baseballing analysis, I’ve submitted for the reader’s consideration some notable zMLEs — that is, minor league translations courtesy of beloved Pole Dan Szymborski.
Though, as Szymborski shouts at the top of his lungs, the numbers are subject to all manner of caveat, they still provide an interesting point of departure for developing ideas about players come 2011.
Below are five notable Double-A batter zMLEs, accompanied by notations of varying utility. As to what constitutes “notable,” there’s no hard definition, but I’ve generally looked for hitters with at least 100 ABs and have omitted more well-known prospects — like Devin Mesoraco or Mike Moustakas, for example.
Ages are as of today, November 1st. The wOBAs (for the MLEs, that is) are approximate; players, ordered according to author’s whim.
Name: Brandon Guyer, 24, CF
Organization: Chicago (NL) Level: Double-A
Actual: 410 PA, .344/.398/.588 (.371 BABIP), .452 wOBA
zMLE: 410 PA, .284/.327/.462 (.323 BABIP), .344 wOBA
Notes
• Was repeating Double-A after doing this through 205 PA in 2009: .190/.236/.291 (.223 BABIP), .238 wOBA.
• Of course, was also in High-A in 2009 and raked: 305 PA, .347/.407/.453 (.380 BABIP), .410 wOBA.
• The most recent iteration of CHONE projects him as roughly league average (-4 runs) in center field.
• Was on neither Baseball America’s nor John Sickels’ (preliminary) prospect list for Cubs.
• Currently playing for Tigres de Aragua of Venzuelan League, slashing .333/.437/.417 in 60 AB.
Name: Dave Sappelt, 23, CF
Organization: Cincinnati Level: Double-A
Actual: 372 PA, .361/.416/.548 (.394 BABIP), .421 wOBA
zMLE: 372 PA, .290/.338/.432 (.330 BABIP), .341 wOBA
Notes
• Was also promoted to Triple-A, where he did this: 115 PA, .324/.365/.481 (.362 BABIP), .374 wOBA.
• Per zMLE, that line looks like this: 115 PA, .275/.319/.422 (.312 BABIP), .327 wOBA.
• The most recent CHONE projection has him at .271/.313/.394 — and +10 runs in center field.
• It’s very possible — at least according to the numbers — that he’s an average major leaguer right now.
• Also was on neither BA’s nor Sickels’ respective lists last year.
Name: Steve Lombardozzi, 22, 2B
Organization: Washington Level: Double-A
Actual: 118 PA, .295/.373/.524 (.306 BABIP), .396 wOBA
zMLE: 118 PA, .259/.328/.426 (.291 BABIP), .333 wOBA
Notes
• Is noted, in BA’s preseason Prospect Handbook, for being “hard-nosed.”
• Is predicted, in same text, to become “a sparkplug in the Nick Punto mold.”
• Nick Punto, age-21 season (1999), at High-A: 478 PA, .305/.404/.388 (.353 BABIP).
• Lombardozzi at High-A this season: 507 PA, .293/.370/.405 (.336 BABIP).
• That’s pretty similar, although I’m guessing Lombardozzi hits a home run more than once every 189 ABs as a major leaguer.
Name: Charlie Blackmon, 24, CF
Organization: Colorado Level: Double-A
Actual: 381 PA, .297/.360/.484 (.309 BABIP), .381 wOBA
zMLE: 381 PA, .277/.326/.428 (.306 BABIP), .333 wOBA
Notes
• Is closest thing to actual prospect on this list, ranking 12th in organization on Baseball America’s preseason list.
• Looks like he ranked somewhere around there on Sickels’ list, too.
• Sickels said he’s a “terrific glove in center.”
• BA said, “Needs to improve his jumps and reads so he doesn’t have to rely as much on his speed.”
• CHONE says he’s basically a league-average center fielder.
• Who ought we to trust in this epic battle of prospect mavenry?!?
• In any case, is having a pretty wicked AFL so far with Scottsdale: 35 AB, .286/.375/.571, 3 HR, 5 BB, 1 K.
Name: Robinson Chirinos, 26, C
Organization: Chicago (NL) Level: Double-A
Actual: 318 PA, .314/.409/.576 (.308 BABIP), .424 wOBA
zMLE: 318 PA, .271/.347/.451 (.289 BABIP), .353 wOBA
Notes
• Yes, yes, yes: he was old for his level this year.
• But also, please consider: he converted to catcher from infield in mid-2008.
• Walked 42 times, struck out only 35 this season.
• CHONE has him as a .261/.341/.427 true-talent hitter.
• Please, people, give both peace and Robinson Chirinos a chance.
Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the National League Central division.
Previously, we looked at:
The American League East
The National League West
The American League Central
The National League Central
Conger followed up a healthy ’09 season in double-A with another good offensive season in triple-A in which he posted a wOBA of .374. Although his raw power remained just that – raw (with only 11 homers and an ISO of .163) – Conger produced a solid triple-slash line at .300/.385/.463 in 387 at-bats. His walk rate sat at an impressive 12.2 BB% and his strikeout rate was impressive at just 15.0%. On the down side, his defense continues to be “meh,” which is never good for a catcher hoping to play for Mike Scioscia. The 22-year-old switch-hitting Conger could become the next (cheaper-younger) Mike Napoli.
It was a rougher-than-expected year for Carter, who (as of this writing) is 0-for-19 in his MLB debut with a strikeout rate of 47.4% K. Playing mostly at triple-A in ’10, the former White Sox prospect hit .258/.365/.529 with an ISO rate of .271. He slugged 30+ homers in the minors for the second time in three years. (He hit “just” 28 in ’09). Carter is your typical slugging first baseman with 30+ homer potential in the Majors, but he’ll likely hit in the .250-.260 range with a whole whack of strikeouts. Defense is not a strong suit at first base and he’s played the outfield during his brief MLB career with less-than-stellar results. Even with his warts, Oakland can definitely use Carter’s power.
You don’t see many 22-year-old closers, but that’s exactly what you have with Feliz. His two-pitch repertoire (96 mph fastball, curveball) has overpowered MLB hitters all season (.192 batting average against, 9.30 K/9) and he currently sits third in the AL with 35 saves. The youngster has also been worked hard by his manager and is in the Top 10 in games pitched in the AL. Pitching in short stints, Feliz has all but abandoned his changeup (thrown 3.4% of the time), which does not bode well for his future development and value to the team (1.4 WAR).
Saunders’ minor league success just has not carried over to the Majors. He’s currently producing a triple-slash line of .213/.289/.372 in 239 at-bats, good for a wOBA of .292. The Canadian has had major issues with making contact (30% MLB strikeout rate), although he’s at least hitting for more power this season (.159 ISO in 2010 vs .057 in ’09). Known as a pretty good fielder in the minors, Saunders’ glove has not helped him enough. His WAR value is still in the negative for his career. At this point, he doesn’t look like anything more than a fourth outfielder, although youth remains on his side for now, but he needs to make some adjustments.
Up Next: The National League East
Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the National League Central division.
Previously, we looked at:
The American League East
The National League West
The American League Central
It’s been a disappointing offensive season for Escobar, who currently has a wOBA of just .282. His triple-slash line stands at .247/.298/.344 in 453 at-bats. The shortstop’s offensive game historically centers around hitting for average and stealing bases. Along with the sub-.250 average, Escobar has just 10 steals. Whoops. Because he has little or no power (.097 ISO), the 23-year-old needs to get on-base and use his legs if he’s going to have any offensive value whatsoever. Defensively, Escobar has a reputation for being a very good fielder but his UZR rating has been fairly modest throughout his MLB career so far.
Alonso started the year in double-A but moved up to triple-A after 31 games. He’s played pretty well at the senior level and posted a triple-slash line of .296/.355/.470 in 406 at-bats. The first baseman had a .175 ISO rate, and that power rating is a tad shy for a prototypical first baseman but it’s along the lines of what we should expect from Alonso. After posting outstanding walk rates for much of his career, this former first round pick’s rate dropped below 10% for the first time in three years. With MLB incumbent first baseman Joey Votto having a MVP-type season, the organization has given Alonso some time in the outfield but it’s a stretch.
The Cubs organization has made some interesting choices with its pitching prospects this season. Cashner opened the year in the starting rotation and was very good. The club then abruptly switched him to the bullpen (a role he held in college) and called him up to the Majors where he’s posted a 5.52 FIP in 43 relief appearances. Cashner has had a real problem finding the plate while coming out of the bullpen and currently has a walk rate of 5.19 BB/9. He’s also been prone to the home-run ball (1.45 HR/9), which was not an issue in the minors at all. Cashner still holds a lot of promise as his fastball is sitting around 96 mph with good sink. He just needs to command it better.
When it comes to catching prospects, the Astros organization seems snake-bitten when it comes to MLB performances. After J.R. Towles washed out (again), the club turned to former No. 1 pick Castro, but he’s struggled mightily with the bat and currently has a wOBA of just .264. His triple-slash line sits at .209/.291/.294 in 163 at-bats. On the plus side, he’s hit the ball with some authority (22.0 LD%) and he’s taking his fair share of free passes (10.4 BB%). With a .254 BABIP, his luck is sure to turn around to some degree. Behind the dish, he’s helping the pitching staff by gunning down base runners (40.0 CS%).
It’s been a youthful season in Pittsburgh with the graduations of Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and Alvarez. The third baseman has shown some warts this season despite providing decent power (.180 ISO). Alvarez currently has a strikeout rate of 36.8 K%, which is not going to get it done at the MLB level. His triple-slash line currently sits at .241/.319/.421 in 266 at-bats. Youth is still on his side, but his value is taking another hit… this time on defense. Alvarez, who has as negative UZR and a poor fielding reputation, will most certainly be moving to first base in the near future.
Last year, I avoided including 2009 draft picks on the 2010 Top 10 lists (which is a practice that will be abandoned for 2011). As such, Lynn was at the top of the list rather than Shelby Miller. Lynn went on to have a modest 2010 season by posting a 4.43 FIP in 164.0 triple-A innings. Clearly, he’s durable but Lynn is more of a workhorse No. 3 or 4 starter than an ace. He typically produces a respectable strikeout rate (7.74 K/9 in 2010) along with a good ground-ball rate, although it dipped to 44% this season. Lynn could sneak onto the back-end of the Cardinals’ starting rotation in 2011 and is a good complement to the likes of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia.
Up Next: The American League West
Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the American League Central division.
Carlos Santana | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 24
Santana forced Cleveland’s hand by posting a .451 wOBA in 57 triple-A games in 2010. The catcher then started off his MLB career with a scorching stretch before his bat cooled a bit. His season ended early after an ugly collision at home plate that forced him to go under the knife for a knee injury. Santana ended his rookie season with a triple-slash line of .260/.401/.467 in 150 at-bats. Like Buster Posey in San Francisco, Santana has a bright future as an offensive-minded catcher who projects to get better behind the dish after being converted to the position earlier in his career with the Dodgers. Value: Up
Mike Montgomery | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: A+/AA
Age: 21
Montgomery is one of the top pitching prospects in all of minor league baseball who reached double-A at the age of 20. The lefty did have a hiccup this season, though, when he landed on the disabled list with elbow soreness. His numbers have been very good in double-A, but he saw his walk rate increase with the jump (3.50 BB/9), but that could also be related to his injury. Montgomery still has a solid 3.76 FIP and has been hard to hit (7.67 H/9). With a fully healthy 2011 season, he could reach the Majors by the end of next season. Value: Even
Tyler Flowers | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 24
After posting a wOBA rate of more than .400 in 2009 (split between double-A and triple-A), Flowers looked to be on course to take the MLB job of incumbent catcher A.J. Pierzynski in 2011. However, a disappointing triple-A season in 2010 may have cast some doubt in the minds of Chicago’s front office. Flowers has hit just .221/.333/.435 in 340 at-bats. Always known for power, walks and lots of strikeouts, the young catcher has continued the trend but the low batting average and even-higher-than-normal K-rate (35%) has led to a .339 wOBA. His BABIP is much lower than his career norm but he could also be putting too much pressure on himself with the Majors with a MLB job within sight. Value: Down
Aaron Hicks | Outfielder
2010 Level: Low-A
Age: 20
Asked to repeat low-A in 2010 despite a respectable ’09 season, Hicks has risen his wOBA from .337 to 372. His been quite consistent this season, save for a poor showing in May. He’s still learning to tap into his power (.146 ISO) but Hicks has already stolen a career high 19 bases and has an outstanding walk rate at 16.2 BB%. Overall, he has a triple-slash line of. 271/.389/.417 in 391 at-bats. He’s going to continue to require patience, but Hicks could develop into something special. Value: Up
Casey Crosby | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Rookie
Age: 21
Injuries continue to haunt Crosby and he’s appeared in just three games this season after making 24 low-A starts in 2010 in which he posted a 2.80 FIP. The young pitcher has battled elbow soreness this season, which is definitely not good news considering he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after signing with the Tigers out of high school in 2007. Value: Down
Up Next: The NL Central
