Szymborski’s MLEs: Five Notable (Double-A) Batters
In my two most recent dispatches from the front lines of baseballing analysis, I’ve submitted for the reader’s consideration some notable zMLEs — that is, minor league translations courtesy of beloved Pole Dan Szymborski.
Though, as Szymborski shouts at the top of his lungs, the numbers are subject to all manner of caveat, they still provide an interesting point of departure for developing ideas about players come 2011.
Below are five notable Double-A batter zMLEs, accompanied by notations of varying utility. As to what constitutes “notable,” there’s no hard definition, but I’ve generally looked for hitters with at least 100 ABs and have omitted more well-known prospects — like Devin Mesoraco or Mike Moustakas, for example.
Ages are as of today, November 1st. The wOBAs (for the MLEs, that is) are approximate; players, ordered according to author’s whim.
Name: Brandon Guyer, 24, CF
Organization: Chicago (NL) Level: Double-A
Actual: 410 PA, .344/.398/.588 (.371 BABIP), .452 wOBA
zMLE: 410 PA, .284/.327/.462 (.323 BABIP), .344 wOBA
Notes
• Was repeating Double-A after doing this through 205 PA in 2009: .190/.236/.291 (.223 BABIP), .238 wOBA.
• Of course, was also in High-A in 2009 and raked: 305 PA, .347/.407/.453 (.380 BABIP), .410 wOBA.
• The most recent iteration of CHONE projects him as roughly league average (-4 runs) in center field.
• Was on neither Baseball America’s nor John Sickels’ (preliminary) prospect list for Cubs.
• Currently playing for Tigres de Aragua of Venzuelan League, slashing .333/.437/.417 in 60 AB.
Name: Dave Sappelt, 23, CF
Organization: Cincinnati Level: Double-A
Actual: 372 PA, .361/.416/.548 (.394 BABIP), .421 wOBA
zMLE: 372 PA, .290/.338/.432 (.330 BABIP), .341 wOBA
Notes
• Was also promoted to Triple-A, where he did this: 115 PA, .324/.365/.481 (.362 BABIP), .374 wOBA.
• Per zMLE, that line looks like this: 115 PA, .275/.319/.422 (.312 BABIP), .327 wOBA.
• The most recent CHONE projection has him at .271/.313/.394 — and +10 runs in center field.
• It’s very possible — at least according to the numbers — that he’s an average major leaguer right now.
• Also was on neither BA’s nor Sickels’ respective lists last year.
Name: Steve Lombardozzi, 22, 2B
Organization: Washington Level: Double-A
Actual: 118 PA, .295/.373/.524 (.306 BABIP), .396 wOBA
zMLE: 118 PA, .259/.328/.426 (.291 BABIP), .333 wOBA
Notes
• Is noted, in BA’s preseason Prospect Handbook, for being “hard-nosed.”
• Is predicted, in same text, to become “a sparkplug in the Nick Punto mold.”
• Nick Punto, age-21 season (1999), at High-A: 478 PA, .305/.404/.388 (.353 BABIP).
• Lombardozzi at High-A this season: 507 PA, .293/.370/.405 (.336 BABIP).
• That’s pretty similar, although I’m guessing Lombardozzi hits a home run more than once every 189 ABs as a major leaguer.
Name: Charlie Blackmon, 24, CF
Organization: Colorado Level: Double-A
Actual: 381 PA, .297/.360/.484 (.309 BABIP), .381 wOBA
zMLE: 381 PA, .277/.326/.428 (.306 BABIP), .333 wOBA
Notes
• Is closest thing to actual prospect on this list, ranking 12th in organization on Baseball America’s preseason list.
• Looks like he ranked somewhere around there on Sickels’ list, too.
• Sickels said he’s a “terrific glove in center.”
• BA said, “Needs to improve his jumps and reads so he doesn’t have to rely as much on his speed.”
• CHONE says he’s basically a league-average center fielder.
• Who ought we to trust in this epic battle of prospect mavenry?!?
• In any case, is having a pretty wicked AFL so far with Scottsdale: 35 AB, .286/.375/.571, 3 HR, 5 BB, 1 K.
Name: Robinson Chirinos, 26, C
Organization: Chicago (NL) Level: Double-A
Actual: 318 PA, .314/.409/.576 (.308 BABIP), .424 wOBA
zMLE: 318 PA, .271/.347/.451 (.289 BABIP), .353 wOBA
Notes
• Yes, yes, yes: he was old for his level this year.
• But also, please consider: he converted to catcher from infield in mid-2008.
• Walked 42 times, struck out only 35 this season.
• CHONE has him as a .261/.341/.427 true-talent hitter.
• Please, people, give both peace and Robinson Chirinos a chance.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Is Steve Lombardozzi the son of former Twins 2bman, Steve Lombardozzi?
Yes, he’s Lombardozzi’s kid. Though it would be about 38 times cooler if the original Steve Lombardozzi had invented a time machine, went back to the 80s, pushed his young self into the future to play baseball. Then, the 2012 Armageddon happens because Lombardozzi’s time machine breaks and it results in Lombardozzi being unable to return in time to play for the 1987 Twins, the shockwaves in space-time causing a vacuum metastability event that destroys Earth in a matter of minutes.
Great Scott!
CHONE has that as only 36 times cooler.
Yes, he is. In a BA (subscriber) chat about the Carolina League this year, Lacy Lusk noted that managers and other players like him much better than scouts, and that he’s basically a carbon copy of his dad.
The Cubs are all over these lists. Of the 10 batters over two posts, the Cubs have 3 of them. Does that mean good things for the Cubs?
No…The cubbies will find a way to screw it up.
Great stuff, Carson. The impressions of these guys really have not changed, but here is a rankings update from BA’s league top 20s.
Blackmon – 17th in the Texas League – future in the Seth Smith mold
Guyer – 14th in the Southern League – scout compared to Reed Johnson
Sappelt – 15th in the Southern League
All of these guys are very athletic and toolsy, but for one reason or another are flying under the radar. Blackmon was a pitcher who didn’t focus on hitting until he got to Georgia Tech, second round pick based almost entirely on athleticism he showed since prep days, injury prone though; Guyer has the knock of getting himself out at times and not being freakishly athletic enough like, say Peter Bourjos, to overcome it; Sappelt is a little small, from a small college, people don’t seem to believe he can hit like he does, and he does all the little things well, which scouts will emphasize over athleticism as an excuse to downgrade a player. All three of these guys will have opportunities in their respective organizations’ outfields soon.
Totally agree about Chirinos. Given the fact the Cubs already have Soto, I think they ought to see what kind of interest there is him in a trade. If you buy that he’s a everyday catcher in the big leagues, that is certainly a valuable asset.
If Chirinos is the real deal, why not consider moving Soto in a deal for a serious impact bat or arm? I love Soto but he’ll soon be making real money and would be extremely attractive to any number of teams. I wouldn’t be looking to move Soto, if Chirinos develops, but would certainly listen.
Projections for these 5:
Guyer – 265/312/425, OPS+ 92
Sappelt – 272/316/392, OPS+ 91
Lombardozzi – 250/314/350, OPS+ 82
Blackmon – 259/307/380, OPS+ 75
Chirinos – 252/329/399, OPS+ 90
Dan, are those projections for this season or some type of peak yr?