Exceptions to the rule noted, when we look at the collegiate players drafted in the first round each June, most have one similarity: they either spent the previous summer playing in the Cape Cod League, or with the USA Baseball Collegiate National team. While players have turned down the national team for the competitiveness and exposure of the Cape, there is still no greater honor in college baseball than being selected to represent the country in competitions like the World Baseball Challenge. The alumni speak to the selectivity of the fraternity: Mark Teixeira, Ryan Zimmerman, Geoff Jenkins, Robin Ventura, Matt Wieters, Stephen Strasburg, and many, many more.

In 2008, the team flexed their dominance with a perfect 24-0 record on the heels of a 0.88 team ERA. So, if you don’t believe the 2010 draft is going to be shallower than last year’s, look no further than the 2009 team ERA: 2.16. Furthermore, the team’s two best pitchers, Vanderbilt’s Sonny Gray and UCLA’s Gerrit Cole, will not be eligible for the draft until 2011. The team still managed a 19-5 record, however, thanks to an offense that scored 57 more runs than their predecessors. Considering the glut of quality draft-eligible position players, there is no question we will see the stars of the USA Baseball offense drafted early and often in June. And there was no bigger star on this team than Cal State Fullerton junior shortstop Christian Colon.

In reviewing the history of this team, there is a case that no player has had as complete a summer with this squad than Colon did in 2009. In 94 at-bats, the six-foot shortstop struck out just six times, versus 11 walks, 34 hits, 11 extra-base hits, and 31 runs — good for a .362/.459/.617 batting line. While the shortstop did commit seven errors in 23 games at shortstop, scouts still gave positive reports to his range and hands up the middle. Colon is now looking as a possible top twenty pick in the draft, and will compete with USA teammate Rick Hague (Rice) for the honor of first drafted shortstop.

In 125 starts over two years at Cal State Fullerton, Colon stole 28 bases in 39 attempts. In 23 games with the USA Baseball team, he went 24-for-26 on the basepaths. This speaks to two things: first, there is untapped potential left with Colon, and two, the Japan, Canada and Guatemala Collegiate teams’ catchers must have not been great shakes. Still, Colon has above-average speed, and is harnessing his ability to translate it to stolen base success.

Major League Scouting Directors love drafting hitters with potential to lead off one day — I once even did a series on this — and Colon certainly could be at the next level. If we include his USA Baseball stats and his two years at CSF, Colon has just 55 strikeouts (versus 54 walks) in 592 at-bats. He also gets on base at a higher clip because his stance is prone to hit by pitches, now with 37 plunks over two-plus seasons. If the whole package doesn’t read a touch like Craig Biggio to you, I’d be surprised.

Other notes on Team USA”s finest:

— Scouts love summer baseball because it puts players on an even plane, not to mention using a wooden bat. So it is no exaggeration to say that for outfielder Bryce Brentz and right-hander Asher Wojciechowski, hailing from Middle Tennessee State and The Citadel respectively, those baseball games in red, white and blue were the most important of their life. Both thorougly impressed scouts, with Brentz hitting .366/.416/.563 and Wojciechowski sporting a 29/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. Brentz is a lock for the first round, while Wojciechowski will have to prove the command problems that have plagued him in the past are behind him.

— Every summer, the team manager and assistant coaches are allowed to bring 1-2 of their own players. When Tim Corbin brought Pedro Alvarez and David Price no one blinked an eye, but oftentimes, the players are overmatched and their inclusion smells of nepotism. This summer was interesting, because when Tulane coach Rick Jones brought right-hander Nick Pepitone, it didn’t seem like he belonged. But Pepitone raised his profile considerably by dominating in international play. Pepitone allowed just two hits in 14.2 innings as the team’s set-up man, and should function as Tulane’s closer this spring. Pepitone brings good tilt to a hard sinker and slider combination, and could be one of the first relievers off the board.

— File this away, but we already have a wonderful argument developing for the top of the 2011 draft board between Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon and UCLA ace Gerrit Cole. The latter dominated on the national team, allowing just 11 hits in 34 innings. Cole, like Stephen Strasburg before him, can pitch into the high 90s until the late innings, and has a nasty wipe-out breaking pitch. Cole’s decision to not sign with the Yankees as a first rounder out of high school is looking better by the day, as he is in for a huge payday in 16 months.

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Farm Director: Mike Berger
Scouting Director: Tom Allison

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Perhaps no team’s Top 10 list would benefit more if 2009 draftees were included. The system, hurting for depth, was served some serious CPR this past season. Players who could be in the Top 10, if eligible, include: Matt Davidson, Ryan Wheeler, Marc Krauss, Mike Belfiore, Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock, Keon Broxton, and Bobby Borchering… but you read about those eight prospects in yesterday’s draft review, so you’re basically getting a Top 18 prospect list with this organization (please, save the applause).

1. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Double-A
DOB: November 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Indiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, plus slider, curveball, change-up

If not for Tommy John surgery, Parker might have been pitching at the MLB level in late ’09 or early 2010. As it stands now, he’ll spend the year trying to recapture his previous form. The right-hander was having a nice season in ’09 pre-injury. He blew through high-A in four dominating starts and then made 16 more appearances in double-A before the elbow popped. He allowed 82 hits in 78.1 innings of work, while also showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.91 BB/9 and posting good strikeout numbers (8.50 K/9). Parker also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.23 HR/9) due to his ground-ball rate of 55%. If he can regain his previous fastball velo, and keep up the ground-ball rate, Parker could be a No. 1 or 2 starter in the Majors.

2. Brandon Allen, 1B, Majors
DOB: February 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2004 5th round – Texas HS (Chicago AL)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

A nice grab from the White Sox (a club that also gave up on Oakland’s Chris Carter), Allen had a breakout ’09 season and looked like he might have a shot at the MLB job in 2010 until the organization signed free agent Adam LaRoche. The soon-to-be-24-year-old will receive another year of seasoning in triple-A unless LaRoche goes down with an injury. Allen played for four teams (three levels) in ’09 and he made his MLB debut. In total, he slugged 34 homers and possesses massive power that could allow him to hit 30+ in the Majors if he can make enough contact. In 104 MLB at-bats, the slugger struck out at a rate of 38.5%, which was about 18% more often than he struck out in the minors in ’09. Allen has done a nice job of getting on-base during his career, with multiple seasons of +10% walk rates.

3. Cole Gillespie, OF, Triple-A
DOB: June 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 3rd round – Oregon State University (Milwaukee)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

Gillespie was acquired last season from Milwaukee and is your typical fringe-regular. He does a lot of things well, but nothing stands out. He doesn’t have enough range to play center field, so he’s stuck on a corner and that shines a lot more light on his bat, which is average. A gap hitter, Gillespie projects to hit around 10-15 homers and steal about the same number of bases. His best bet for a prolonged MLB career is as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. He spent much of the ’09 season where he hit .242/.332/.424 in 236 at-bats and his BABIP was on the low side at .289. In triple-A for Arizona, he hit .304/.418/.514, but was aided by a BABIP of .363. Gillespie does a nice job of getting on base (+10% walk rate) but he strikes out too much for his average power.

4. Collin Cowgill, OF, High-A
DOB: May 22, 1986 Bats: R Throws: L
Signed: 2008 5th round – University of Kentucky
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Cowgill is an interesting player and not that dissimilar from Gillespie. Just 5’9”, he’s shown some good pop for his size but he doesn’t project to be a power hitter in the Majors. More likely than not, he’s going to end up as a fourth outfielder or platoon player. He battled injuries in ’09 and had just 220 at-bats in high-A. His triple-slash line was .277/.373/.445 and he showed good patience at the plate with a walk rate of 11.2%. His strikeout rate was a bit high at 22.3%. He added 11 steals in 15 tries. If given full playing time in the Majors, Cowgill would likely produce some 15-15 seasons. It will be interesting to see what he can do in double-A in 2010.

5. Wade Miley, LHP, High-A
DOB: November 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – Southeastern Louisiana University
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, slider, curveball, change-up

A personal favorite of mine from the ’08 draft, Miley has developed slowly. The southpaw, already 23, spent the majority of the year in low-A where he allowed a lot of hits (127) in 113.2 innings of work. On the plus side, he showed good control with a walk rate of 2.30 BB/9. His strikeout rate was modest at 7.21 K/9. Overall, he posted a FIP of 3.38 but at his age, and experience level, he should have dominate the league. He received three starts in high-A and that’s where he should begin the 2010 season, and will look to have a little more luck on his side after posting a high BABIP and a low strand rate.

6. Leyson Septimo, LHP, Double-A
DOB: July 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2003 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire:91-95 mph fastball, slider

A former outfielder who wasn’t totally useless at the plate (He hit .270 before his conversion to the mound), Septimo is now trying to harness his plus-fastball as a reliever. In ’09 at high-A, he allowed 29 hits in 38.1 innings of work while and he struck out batters at a rate of 10.33 K/9. He moved up to double-A and posted a strikeout rate of 12.27 K/9. It’s his control that is holding him back, though, and he posted a walk rate of 6.10 at high-A and 8.84 BB/9 in double-A. With just under 100 innings of pitching experience, it’s no surprise that Septimo’s control is off, but he’s turning 25 in July and he hasn’t dominated left-handed batters.

7. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Low-A
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – Puerto Rico HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just 20, this former third-round pick is still raw but he remains an interesting shortstop prospect. While spending ’09 in low-A, Navarro hit .262/.308/.339 in 451 at-bats. The weaknesses are clear: his walk rate is just 5.5% and his ISO rate was .078. Navarro does have some speed and he swiped 12 bases in 16 tries. He also did a nice job of trimming his ’08 strikeout rate from 26.5% to 18.8% in ’09, giving hope that he could develop into a No. 2 hitter. Defensively, he has good range for the position but his arm might get him moved off the position to second base. Navarro is a long way off from reaching the Majors, but his potential appears to be that of a starting shortstop on a second-tier club.

8. Cesar Valdez, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ’09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

9. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Majors
DOB: May 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 2nd round – Villanova University (New York NL)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider, change-up

Part of the ill-fated Johan Santana trade between the Twins and Mets, Mulvey made his way from the Twins to the Diamondbacks in ’09. He had a respectable, but far from dominant, year in triple-A for the Twins where he posted a 3.96 FIP and allowed 153 hits in 149.0 innings. He showed average control and posted a walk rate of 3.25 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.83 K/9. The right-hander struggled in eight MLB appearances split between the Twins and the Diamondbacks. His ceiling is probably that of a No. 4 starter or long/middle reliever. Mulvey has a pretty good slider, but he needs to improve his fastball command so he can set up his out-pitch.

10. Roque Mercedes, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Another ’09 trade acquisition, Mercedes had a nifty season in the bullpen for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks organizations. The right-hander began the year in high-A and posted a 2.19 FIP in 29 games. Batters managed to hit just .181 against him and he posted a strikeout rate of 9.72 K/9. His walk rate was OK at 3.24 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run. Moved up to double-A after the trade, Mercedes’ FIP rose to 3.67 and he allowed 14 hits in 19.0 innings. His walk rate jumped to 4.74 BB/9 but his K-rate rose to 11.84 K/9. The 23-year-old pitcher is probably still a year away from the Majors and his ceiling is probably that of an eighth-inning set-up man.

Up Next: The Los Angeles Angels

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Farm Director: Mike Berger
Scouting Director: Tom Allison

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Bobby Borchering, 3B, Florida HS
1. A.J. Pollock, OF, Notre Dame
1S. Matt Davidson, 3B, California HS
1S. Chris Owings, SS, South Carolina HS
1S. Mike Belfiore, LHP, Boston College
2. Eric Smith, RHP, Rhode Island
2. Marc Krauss, OF, Ohio
3. Keon Broxton, 3B, Florida CC
7x – Matt Helm, 3B, Arizona HS
13x – Patrick Schuster, LHP, Florida HS

Typically with the draft reviews I give a very brief overview of the key prospects taken in the ’09 draft. The Top 10 list that follows (due up tomorrow for The Snakes) does not include 2009 draft picks due to the lack of available statistical information, as well as the natural volatility of the young players’ values. This organization is different, though, given A) The incredible lack of depth in the system prior to ’09, and B) The number of quality prospects that were nabbed in last year’s draft. As such, I am going to give more in-depth profiles for a number of the top picks below.

Bobby Borchering: He had an OK debut in rookie ball in ’09. The 19-year-old third baseman hit .241/.290/.425 in 87 at-bats. He quickly showed his raw power (.184 ISO) but also that he needs to tweak his approach at the plate after posting a walk rate of 5.4% and a strikeout rate of 31.0%. Defensively, Borchering has a good arm, but there is concern that he’ll lose mobility at the hot corner and eventually move to either first base or even an outfield corner. Some clubs also liked him as a catcher.

Matt Davidson: Another prep third baseman, Davidson debuted in short-season ball to accommodate Borchering’s stay in rookie ball. The powerful prospect still produced respectable numbers with a line of .241/.312/.319 in 270 at-bats. Davidson’s power clearly did not show up in his debut (.078 ISO) but he showed some patience at the plate (7.0 BB%) but also big strikeout numbers (27.8 K%). Defensively, he has the arm to stay at third (He was his high-school team’s closer, too) but Davidson will have to watch his conditioning (He’s already 6’3”, 210 lbs).

A.J. Pollock: Drafted as an outfielder, Pollock played all over the diamond as an amateur; if his bat doesn’t click in pro ball, he has the potential to be a super-utility player. With that said, he had no problems in his debut. He hit .271/.319/.376 in 255 low-A at-bats. He slugged just .106, but Pollock showed his athleticism and speed by swiping 10 bases in 14 attempts. To be a true top-of-the-order hitter, it would be nice to see him increase his walk rate from 5.8%.

Marc Krauss: This college outfielder debuted in low-A ball and hit .304/.377/.478 in 115 at-bats. He showed a good idea of the strike zone with a walk rate of 10.8% and his strikeout rate was OK at 18.3%. He showed some power with an ISO rate of .174. There is concern that his approach will not lead to big power numbers in pro ball (as witnessed by his 53.3% ground-ball rate and low line-drive rate) and he’s not likely to hit for a high average. He’s also limited defensively due to a lack of overall athleticism.

Chris Owings: Owings isn’t flashy in the field or at the plate, but he’s reliable. Defensively, he’s sure-handed and coverts what he gets too; he’s expected to remain at shortstop on a long-term basis. At the plate, he has limited power (.120 ISO) but Owings projects to be a solid top of the order hitter, but probably in the two hole due to his lack of speed and patience (2.7 BB%). He makes good contact and should hit .280-.300 in the Majors if he keeps developing. Overall, he hit .306/.324/.426 in 108 at-bats in his debut.

Mike Belfiore: It’s easy to like Belfiore. He’s left-handed, he can touch the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball and he gets a ton of ground balls (54% in his debut). He also has a four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, change-up, and curve) and he his ceiling keeps getting higher now that the former two-way player in college has focused on pitching. Overall in low-A ball in ’09, Belfiore posted a 2.48 FIP in 58.0 innings, while posting a strikeout rate of 8.53 K/9 and showing excellent control with a walk rate of 2.02 BB/9.

Keon Broxton: An athletic center-field prospect, Broxton struggled somewhat in his rookie-ball debut thanks to an ugly 34.2% strikeout rate. He also walked just 6.4% of the time and attempted seven steals (six successfully) in 72 games. Overall, he hit .246/.302/.474 in 272 at-bats. He showed more power than expected with an ISO rate of .228. He currently looks a little bit like fellow Diamondback Chris Young.

Ryan Wheeler (5th round): Wheeler had a solid debut in short-season ball and even earned a late-season promotion (eight games) to low-A. He hit .363/.461/.538 in 234 short-season at-bats. Wheeler’s scouting report out of college suggested that he was a one-dimensional slugger who went up swinging for the fences. He showed a little more depth than that in pro ball by posting a walk rate of 13.2% and he kept his strikeout rate to an excellent 12.0%. His ISO rate was .175 and he even stole seven base in 11 tries despite average-at-best speed.

2008 1st Round: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
1S. Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
2. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Long Beach State
3. Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, California HS

Schlereth reached the Majors quicker that a lot of people thought he would but the reliever was dealt to Detroit in the off-season in the Edwin Jackson trade. Miley is on the Top 10 list. Eichhorn has a chance to get onto the list in 2010 if he can continue to develop his control. The reliever spent ’09 in rookie ball and pitched just 16.0 innings with 25 strikeouts and nine walks.

Shaw spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen at high-A ball in ’09 and he posted respectable numbers. He allowed 96 hits in 107.1 innings, while showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.35 BB/9. He also struck out batters at a rate of 7.97 K/9. His FIP (3.70) was a full run lower than his ERA, in part because he relies to heavily on the ground ball (55%) and minor-league defenses are notoriously unreliable. He’s a better prospect than he currently appears to be.

Outfielder Collin Cowgill (5th round) was a steal and appears on the Top 10 list. Right-hander Trevor Harden (14th) is another player to keep your eye on.

2007 1st Round: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Indiana HS
1S. Wes Roemer, RHP, Cal State Fullerton
1S. Ed Easley, C, Mississippi State
2. Barry Enright, RHP, Pepperdine
3. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Puerto Rico HS
5x – Tyrell Worthington, OF, North Carolina HS

First pick Parker has looked very good in pro ball and reached Double-A in ’09 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. The organization hopes to have him back by the end of 2010 and he is on the Top 10 list along with Navarro.

Both Roemer and Enright are right-handed pitchers with good control but modest stuff. Roemer reached double-A in ’09 and allowed 132 hits in 134.2 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.87 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.55 K/9. He also produced a 44% ground-ball rate but his line-drive rate was a worrisome 18%. Enright also pitched in double-A and he gave up a lot of hits: 171 in 156.0 innings of work. His walk rate was good at 2.13 BB/9 but the strikeout rate was very low at just 5.94 K/9.

Easley’s bat has been a disappointment since turning pro. He hit just .228/.324/.304 in 378 high-A at-bats. Worthington has been a huge disappointment and has shown limited aptitude at the plate. In his third try at short-season ball, the outfielder hit just .204/.264/.274 with a 33.3% strikeout rate in 186 at-bats.

Josh Collmenter (15th round) is a pitcher to keep an eye on, while Bryan Augenstein (7th) could end up being a useful arm in the Majors.

2006 1st Round: Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri
1S. Brooks Brown, RHP, Georgia (Traded to DET)
2. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oklahoma HS (Traded to OAK)
3. Dallas Buck, RHP, Oregon State (Traded to CIN)
3. Cyle Hankerd, OF, Southern California

Anderson was the cream of this crop, but he was traded to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal. Scherzer is a close second, but he was lost to Detroit in the Jackson deal. Brown (Detroit) and Buck (Cincinnati) were also traded. The organization, which doesn’t have a lot of money to burn, has made some very poor decisions by using cheap, talented minor leaguers as trading chips for more expensive veterans – some of whom did not stay around long.

Hankerd has never lived up to the hype that developed after his pro debut in ’06 but he could still see time in the Majors as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Daniel Stange (7th round) has some potential as a middle reliever. John Hester (13th) could be the club’s back-up catcher no later than 2011. Clay Zavada (30th) took a unique route to the Majors but he should be one of the southpaws in the MLB ‘pen this season.

Up Next: The Arizona Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects

(I am severely late to the party, but I’m here to talk about a movie that made its debut on the festival circuit in 2008, and was released sometime last May in the United States. But on the heels of yesterday’s Oscar nominations, I’m hoping you can see some tangential timeliness, if only to point to its glaring omission from the Best Original Screenplay category. I also think SUGAR can provide real lessons that can help us in our goal from Friday: finding ways to improve the existing Minor League development process.)

“It’s the same game we played back home.” It is this question — not the assurance, as it’s spoken in the film — that concerns the baseball element in “Sugar”, a story about assimilation into the United States told by fimmakers Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck (“Half Nelson”). The title character is Miguel “Sugar” Santos (newcomer Algenis Perez Soto), a right-handed pitcher from San Pedro, Dominican Republic, signed for $15,000 to the Kansas City Knights. Santos takes quite a journey in the film, traveling from his home country to Phoenix for Spring Training, then to Bridgetown, Iowa for his first minor league assignment, and to New York for a taste of the America he has dreamt about.

This is the baseball journey that we know about told through a lens we have only imagined. Boden and Fleck are unwavering in their pursuit to tell the Dominican story of playing baseball in America, from the playgrounds in the Bronx to the organizational facilities in the Caribbean. Sugar is good; at 19, the film opens as he begins to harness the ability that led to his signing. But the Knights realize what a bargain he is when Sugar quickly picks up a knuckle-curve that a visiting scout teaches him. From there, it’s onto Phoenix, as Sugar and his curveball are invited to the Knights’ Spring Training camp.

From here, the film begins a series of narratives that deal with the difficulty of the language barrier. Sugar arrives in America with enough English to play baseball with: his English classes in the Dominican consisted of “flyball,” “home run,” and “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.” Anything outside of this, like ordering food at a restaurant or understanding his coaches and teammates, is out of his league. “Donde está I-A?” he asks his friends before a plane ride sends him to his professional debut in the Midwest League. Middle America is not the stuff of Dominican dreams.

There are three principal relationships that a Minor League player has, and Boden and Fleck have done their due diligence to pursue each struggle in communication: the host family, the coaching staff and teammates. We can tell that Sugar, like so many Latin minor leaguers, is very smart, because he picks up the language very well. But a perfect storm of events strike midseason, as they so often do, and it drastically changes Sugar’s worldview in Bridgetown. He injures his ankle tripping over the first base bag, just when his lone Dominican teammate is released as the result of bad performance. His other friend on the team, a second baseman from Stanford, is promoted, and suddenly Sugar feels alone. When he returns and the inevitable slump hits, Sugar’s frustrations are read as make-up problems by his equally frustrated coaches.

This, I think, is the first lesson that we can take from the movie. I’m reminded of Hanley Ramirez, who had numerous suspensions in the Boston Red Sox organization for mis-conduct. Ramirez would often get in arguments with coaches and trainers, and was even demoted from High-A to Rookie League as punishment. I should preface this example by saying that Hanley’s own lack of maturity and ego were the central role in these problems. But I also can see that at no level in the Boston organization did he have a Latin coach, and thus, I find his immediate success in Latin-friendly Miami as something less than coincidence. I can’t help wonder if part of his anger outbreaks coincided with language barrier frustrations.

The film further reveals itself when Sugar travels to New York to visit the departed Dominican third baseman. There, he sees the Yankee Stadium he dreamed about as a boy in San Pedro, and finds a Latin community in the Bronx. It presents, to me at least, an interesting dichotomy: the biggest cities in America are home to our largest fanbases, but also are in the most Latin-friendly towns in America. Many of the minor league cities that players are assigned to, with the intention of developing them into Major Leaguers, are in towns with nothing to offer Spanish speakers.

Critics have credited Boden and Fleck for a niche look at the American dream, but they have also accomplished something that revered sports movies like “The Blind Side” and “Invictus” (both Oscar-nominated films) failed at: they delivered a universal message without dumbing down the sport serving as metaphor. In fact, I think “Sugar” raises issues that we need to pursue that could shine light on the ideal development process of a Latin player. What teams are best at developing these players? What do they do differently? Do players succeed in towns more accessible to Spanish speakers?

Is it really the same game they play back home?

In case you missed it, here are links to the Top 10 lists for all the teams in both the American and National League East divisions. The link to the AL/NL Central Top 10 lists is HERE.

American League East
Toronto Blue Jays | Top Prospect: Brett Wallace, 3B/1B (AAA)
Boston Red Sox | Top Prospect: Casey Kelly, RHP (A+)
Tampa Bay Rays | Top Prospect: Desmond Jennings, OF (AAA)
Baltimore Orioles | Top Prospect: Brian Matusz, LHP (MLB)
New York Yankees | Top Prospect: Jesus Montero, C (AA)

National League East
Washington Nationals | Top Prospect: Stephen Strasburg, RHP (AFL)
Philadelphia Phillies | Top Prospect: Domonic Brown, OF (AA)
Florida Marlins | Top Prospect: Michael Stanton, OF (AA)
Atlanta Braves | Top Prospect: Jason Heyward, OF (AAA)
New York Mets | Top Prospect: Fernando Martinez, OF (MLB)

Up Next: The AL and NL West Top 10 lists

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Farm Director: Doug Harris
Scouting Director: Kris Kline

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included*)

The depth is still lacking in the Nationals system, but the good news is that the club is starting to collect some prospects with higher ceilings, led (of course) by Stephen Strasburg. Fellow ’09 draft pick Drew Storen is another pitcher to keep an eye on, as he could be in Washington by mid-season.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, College*
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2009 1st round – San Diego State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-98 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Yes, I am stepping away from my self-imposed restriction of not ranking 2009 draft picks. I’m sure you can understand why with Strasburg, who is by far the best prospect in the entire system, if not all of baseball. Statistically-speaking, there is little to go on with the big right-hander. He made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and allowed 15 hits in 19.0 innings, while punching out 23 and walking seven. He also produced a crazy number of ground-ball outs. Of the five starts that he made, he allowed more than one run just once (eight in 2.2 innings). There is some thought that Strasburg could step right into the Nationals rotation at the beginning of 2010, but he’s likely due for some minor-league seasoning in double-A.

2. Derek Norris, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Norris had a breakout season and is now one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball. Playing in low-A ball, the right-handed catcher hit .286/.413/.513 in 437 at-bats. His triple-slash line was aided by a .342 BABIP, which is rather high for a catcher – but Norris has better legs than most at his position (as seen by his 29 stolen bases attempts in two seasons). He showed excellent power with an ISO rate of .227, which helps justify (to a degree) the 26.5% strikeout rate. Norris showed exceptional patience at the plate with a walk rate of 16.7%. Defensively, he threw out 36% of base-stealers, but he allowed 28 passed balls.

3. Ian Desmond, SS, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

It’s taken Desmond a few years to navigate the minor-league waters but he appears ready to assume the full-time shortstop gig for the Nationals. The club is confident in the young infielder to the point where it is planning to move veteran Cristian Guzman to second base. Desmond began the year in double-A and hit .306/.372/.494 in 170 at-bats. He showed good power with an ISO rate of .188 but his strikeout rate was a tad high at 23.5%. That rate came down to 17.4% in 178 triple-A at-bats, but his power diminished to an ISO rate of .107. Overall, Desmond stole 21 bases in 26 attempts. Promoted to the Majors, he hit .280/.318/.561 in 82 at-bats. The 24-year-old shortstop should produce at a league-averag clip in 2010, at the very least.

4. Danny Espinosa, SS, High-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: S Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Long Beach State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If Desmond’s development suddenly goes south, the organization also has Espinosa waiting in the wings. He looks quite different than the player of the same name at Long Beach State University, who never topped more than seven homers (in 210 at-bats) and was considered a line-drive hitter. Taking to the wood, though, has been good for Espinosa. His aggressive approach has remain consistent, though, and he has produced a high strikeout rate in pro ball (27.2%) and he did not hit for much average in ’09 with a triple-slash line of .264/.375/.460 in 474 high-A at-bats. With 29 steals in 40 tries, Espinosa could develop into a 20-20 threat if his power output (.196 ISO, 18 homers) is for real. He’s beginning to look a little bit like Toronto’s Aaron Hill, but with more speed. Defensively, Espinosa has a strong arm and solid range at shortstop.

5. Chris Marrero, 1B, Double-A
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been a long, slow climb through the system for this former No. 1 draft pick. Marrero was stuck in high-A ball for three seasons but he finally received a taste of double-A (23 games) in ’09. At the lower level, he hit .287/.360/.464 in 414 at-bats. He has yet to show consistent power and his ISO rate was .176 before it dropped to .120 with his promotion. His strikeout rate (23.4%) and walk rate (9.0%) both remained almost identical despite the move. Marrero is a below-average fielder at first base so he needs to tap into his raw power more consistently if he’s going to be an everyday player at the MLB level. Just 21, he’ll return to double-A for the 2010 season.

6. Michael Burgess, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A move from low-A in ’08 to high-A in ’09 saw Burgess’ OPS drop from .804 to .735. He also lost some pop in his bat as his ISO rate slipped from .219 to .175. Although his walk rates (9.9%) were almost identical and strikeout rate of 28.1% was actually an improvement over ’08’s 33.9%, Burgess’ numbers took a dive in part due to a .288 BABIP (down from .331 in ’08). The stocky outfielder hit .235/.325/.410 in 480 at-bats in ’09, and he’s going to continue to struggle to hit for a high average until he gets his strikeout rate under control. He attempted 20 steals and was caught eight times. Defensively, he has a very strong arm and is a good fielding right-fielder.

7. Bradley Meyers, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Loyola Marymount University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A little-known pitcher entering ’09, Meyers had a solid year and looks poised to help the Nationals club in 2010, if needed. The right-hander has good size for a pitcher and an average repertoire that plays up due to his good control (2.10 BB/9 in ’09). Meyers began the year in high-A and allowed 71 hits with a 2.72 FIP in 88.1 innings of work. He allowed just one home run thanks to a 51% ground-ball rate. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.76 FIP and gave up 40 hits in 48.0 innings. His strikeout rate also jumped from 6.62 to 8.06 K/9. Meyers allowed just two homers at the senior level, although his ground-ball rate dipped to 40%. Pitching depth remains a weakness in the organization, so Meyers could definitely see time in the Majors in 2010 if he continues to pitch well.

8. Aaron Thompson, LHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 1st round – Texas HS (Florida)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-91 fastball, plus change-up, curveball, slider

Thompson, like Meyers, does not have a huge ceiling but they both project as useful big-league arms. This former supplemental first round pick was obtained from Florida last season for first baseman Nick Johnson and he posted solid numbers after changing addresses. Thompson pitched 114.0 innings for the Marlins’ double-A squad and he allowed 121 hits, while posting a walk rate of 3.39 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.92 K/9. After the trade, the southpaw saw his rates improve to 3.03 BB/9 and 7.44 K/9. He also allowed 32 hits in 32.2 innings. Thompson clearly needs to find a way to cut down on the hits allowed and he’s been incredibly unlucky throughout his career when it comes to his LOB% rate, which was 65% in ’09.

9. Destin Hood, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Alabama HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A prep football star, the organization swayed Hood away from an Auburn University football scholarship with an above-slot contract in 2008. The outfielder remains raw but he continues to show flashes of developing into a solid baseball player. He hit well in a brief stint in rookie ball (.330/.388/.614 in 88 at-bats) before moving up to short-season ball, where his numbers dipped a bit. At the upper level, Hood hit .246/.302/.333 in 138 despite a .352 BABIP. His strikeout rate was a disturbingly-high 32.6% and he did not produce the power numbers (.087 ISO) to help justify such a large number. Hood does not have much speed, so he’s not a stolen-base threat and he’s very raw defensive. He should move up to low-A ball for the 2010 season.

10. Eury Perez, OF, Rookie
DOB: May 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Perez certainly does not have the pedigree of some of the other bigger-named (and bigger $$$) Latin signings in the past few years. With that said, he burst onto the baseball landscape with authority in ’09 by hitting .381/.443/.503 in 181 at-bats. The high slugging percentage is likely a figment of the small-sample size and level of competition, as Perez has a small frame and is built more for speed (16 steals in 24 tries) and his ISO rate was just .122. The outfielder showed a pretty good approach at the plate for his age, with a walk rate of 7.3% and a strikeout rate of just 11.0%. His high batting average, though, was the result of a crazy .418 BABIP. Because he has a pretty good idea at the plate, and he buys into the strengths of his game (59% ground-ball rate), Perez – although very raw – has the chance to develop into a solid top-of-the-order hitter.

Up Next: The AL/NL East Recap

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Farm Director: Doug Harris
Scouting Director: Kris Kline

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego
1. Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
2. Jeff Kobernus, 2B, California
3. Trevor Holder, RHP, Georgia
12x – Nathan Karns, RHP, Texas Tech

Strasburg is obviously the Nationals’ No. 1 prospect and you’ll read more about him tomorrow. Storen could beat Strasburg to Washington, though, as he’s already produced some very good numbers in the minors. The right-handed future closer pitched a total of 37.0 innings in pro ball in ’09 and allowed just 21 hits with 49 strikeouts. He did, though, walk six batters in 12.1 innings at double-A as his control got progressively worse as he faced better hitters. In other words, a little more minor-league seasoning will probably help.

Kobernus appeared in just 10 games after signing and hit .220/.273/.244. The second baseman should move up to low-A for 2010. Perhaps impressed with his ability to touch to mid-90s, the organization nabbed Holder about five to seven rounds higher than he was projected to go. In his debut, he played at three levels and reached high-A despite OK, but not great, numbers. The right-hander made six starts in high-A and allowed 33 hits in 23.1 innings, while posting a walk rate of 3.47 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.94 K/9. Karns signed too late to play in ’09; he’s similar to Holder in the fact that he can hit the mid-90s but he doesn’t dominate due to poor command and a lack of development in his secondary pitches.

2008 1st Round: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri (Did Not Sign)
2. Destin Hood, OF, Alabama HS
3. Danny Espinosa, SS, Long Beach State
x- Graham Hicks, LHP, Florida HS
x- Adrian Nieto, C, Florida HS
x- J.P. Ramirez, OF, Texas HS

The club definitely would have liked to get Crow signed, but he ended up going back in the draft and was taken (and inked) by Kansas City in the first round of the 2009 draft. Both Hood and Espinosa appear on the club’s Top 10 list.

Hicks spent time in extended spring training in ’09 and then pitched the majority of the season in low-A ball where he struggled with a 5.38 FIP. He allowed 53 hits in 36.2 innings of work. Nieto also began the year in extended spring training before spending a second season in rookie ball where his bat failed to develop. The catcher hit just .228/.337/.287 in 136 at-bats. He clearly needs to drive the ball more after posting an ISO of .059 despite his solid frame (6’0”, 200 lbs).

Ramirez just missed to the Top 10 list after a solid short-season ball season. The outfielder hit .264/.306/.407 in 295 at-bats. He has speed, but Ramirez is still learning the art of base running; he was caught nine times in 15 attempts. His walk rate was just 4.5% so he’s going to need to show more patience at the plate. Ramirez also needs to improve against southpaws after hitting just .203/.259/.266.

2007 1st Round: Ross Detwiler, RHP, Missouri State
1S. Josh Smoker, LHP, Georgia HS
1S. Michael Burgess, OF, Florida HS
2. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Wisconsin-Stevens
2. Jake Smolinski, 3B, Illinois HS
3. Steven Souza, 3B, Washington HS
x- Jack McGeary, LHP, Massachusetts HS

With six picks in the first three rounds (and one large over-slot deal), the club was set to really infuse some talent into the system. Unfortunately, only Zimmermann has met or exceeded expectations and he’s currently on the shelf after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Detwiler has appeared in 16 MLB games over the past three seasons, but he has yet to take a stranglehold on a rotation spot. Burgess still appears on the club’s Top 10 list, but he needs a strong 2010 season. Smoker has battled injury problems and he has yet to get out of short-season ball for an significant period of time (five starts in low-A before being demoted in ’09).

Smolinski had some value, as he was traded to Florida in the Scott Olsen deal, which really didn’t work out for the Nats. Souza spent ’09 in low-A but he strikes out too much (26.0%) for someone with modest power (.081 ISO). McGeary originally signed a contract that allowed him to play pro ball and also attended college but he committed to the sport full-time in ’09. Unfortunately, he had a pretty poor season and posted a 5.09 FIP in low-A.

Derek Norris (4th round) and Bradley Meyers (5th) were both excellent acquisitions.

2006 1st Round: Chris Marrero, OF/1B, Florida HS
1. Colton Willems, RHP, Florida HS
2. Sean Black, RHP, New Jersey HS (Did not sign)
2. Stephen Englund, OF, Washington HS
3. Stephen King, SS, Florida HS

Marrero has not posted above-average numbers in the minors despite his favorable draft status. Despite that, he is still amongst the Nationals’ Top 10 prospects. Willems’ ’09 season was ruined by injuries. Englund hit so poorly that he’s now giving pitching a try. King may want to try the same thing after hitting just .222/.304/.340 with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 315 high-A at-bats.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals Top 10 Prospects

(A note: This week begins what I hope to become a weekly feature: college baseball on Mondays. During the season, we’ll recap how the top draft prospects fared during the weekend. But with Opening Day still three weeks away, we begin today with the top prospect in Division I.)

“He’s not just tall and has a good arm, you know,” Louisiana State head coach Paul Mainieri told me on the phone last week. Sometimes, the rest of what makes up 21-year-old Anthony Ranaudo tends to get lost in the fray. His success, as a pitcher-not-thrower, pitching on Friday nights for a national champion, can somehow be overshadowed by his “good arm.” A beast at 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, with a fastball that has touched 97 mph in the past, Ranaudo is what scouts dream of when they imagine a right-handed pitcher.

He will be drafted in the top five this June, Boras’ demands permitting, as a result of that frame, that arm, and yes, some of those pitching skills harnessed in Baton Rouge. His decision to attend college, one he made before the 2007 draft, was a calculated risk when it appeared he would not be drafted in the first round out of a New Jersey high school. Blame Rick Porcello’s sizable shadow, or blame a senior season that just couldn’t match the dominance of the previous year. But the calculated risk looked to be an epic mistake in 2008, when Ranaudo lost most of his season to elbow tendinitis. Fast forward 12 months, and his prospect status is higher than ever.

And while it’s hard to poke holes in a 12-3, 3.04 ERA season (not to mention the 6.73 H/9 or 11.51 K/9), it does seem as things could get better for Ranaudo this year. Another year removed from his elbow problems, we should see more consistency in velocity this season, as last year his fastball would dip into the 89-91 range at times. In the fall and early spring workouts, the healthy right-hander is back to his old mid-90s self. And to face left-handed hitters, who had some success against him last year, Ranaudo will be implementing his third pitch.

“We’re going to use the change-up a little more this year,” Mainieri said. “It was pretty good last year, we just didn’t throw it much. This fall it looked real good.”

Scouts are anxious to see it, as they didn’t get to see him last summer. Mainieri ruled that after never pitching more than 60 innings in a season before, the 124.1 innings logged during the Tigers’ championship run was enough for 2009. They shut him down for the summer, and limited his fall ball workout to five outings with a maximum of three innings. Before the season, they plan on three more intrasquad starts. And on February 19, against Centenary, Ranaudo will begin his final season in purple and gold. It will mark the first time he’s thrown to a non-teammate since winning the national championship on June 24.

The 2010 draft looks thinner on the college side than it has in a few years, but it’s not without a horse. More on Ranaudo every Monday in this space.

In my talk with Mainieri, three other players came up worth noting, all of whom I’ll run through quickly:

— While Bryce Harper (who made his junior college debut over the weekend) is the draft’s top catcher, Micah Gibbs is the most polished. The junior has shown a bit of every skill at LSU, including gap power (32 doubles in 412 at-bats), patience (69 walks) and plus defense. Mainieri quoted Gibbs’ ability to put all of them together, day in and day out, as his final hurdle before June.

— In terms of SportsCenter appearances, no player in college baseball has been as visible in two seasons as Leon Landry. In both 2008 and 2009, Landry made a Top Ten Play, showcasing his “70” defensive range. He also came out of the gate last season as the nation’s hottest hitter, but went cold at the onset of conference season and was benched by the postseason. “He just got a little homer happy and was pulling off the ball,” Mainieri said. The coach also pointed out that LSU faced “an inordinate amount of left-handers,” who Landry is still struggling against. Still, with an insane power-speed toolset, Landry won’t slip past the third round.

— I first became aware of Blake Dean in August, 2007, when I ranked him as a top freshman prospect in the Cape Cod League, “A nice left-handed swing with good bat control, and a good outfielder,” I wrote. Well, I was wrong with the latter point, as Dean quickly became the Tigers’ Designated Hitter. But he did slug, and has been one of the nation’s top hitters for two seasons, hitting .340/.432/.628 in his sophomore and junior seasons. The coaches finally have a position for Dean, for his final season in Baton Rouge: first base. “This was always his natural position, he just never knew it,” Mainieri said. Expect him to go higher than the 10th round (where he was drafted last June) this time around.

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Farm Director: Tony LaCava
Scouting Director: Andrew Tinnish

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This is a tough system to rank beyond the Top 3 because the organization had such a down year in ’09 with a lot of prospects (hopefully temporarily) wiping out. On the plus side, there are quite a few talented players who are one good season away from shooting up the depth chart. The loss of Roy Halladay was a huge blow to the organization, as well as baseball in Canada, but the trade did infuse some much-needed talent.

1. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Triple-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University (St. Louis)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Wallace is the guy that was always destined to be a Blue Jay. The club drafted him out of high school in ’05 even though he was an almost impossible signing due to his commitment to Arizona State. The club then had hoped to grab him in the ’08 draft, but St. Louis got to him first. Finally, the club nabbed him in a deal with Oakland (for Michael Taylor, who was obtained in the Roy Halladay deal). Wallace had a busy year in ’09 and played with three different minor league teams in double-A and triple-A. Overall on the year, he hit .293/.365/.458, which is not bad at all considering it was his first full season and he had a lot of change to deal with. The left-handed hitter fared very well against southpaws with an .897 OPS. Wallace projects to be a 20+ home run hitter with the ability to hit .280-.300. However, he needs to get a little more loft on the ball if he’s going to be a consistent power hitter. His walk rate took a bit of a hit with the promotion to triple-A (6.5%) compared to his double-A rate (11.7%), so he could stand to make some improvements in that area.

2. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Double-A
DOB: December 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Texas HS (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-96 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Drabek had an excellent ’09 season while returning from Tommy John surgery. He began the year in high-A ball and allowed 49 hits in 61.2 innings of work. His walk rate was solid at 2.77 BB/9 and he did not allow a home run, despite an average ground-ball rate. His strikeout rate was a nifty 10.80. Moved up to double-A, Drabek’s FIP rose from 1.82 to 3.83 but his walk rate was still good at 2.90 BB/9. His strikeout rate dropped to 7.10 K/9. He gave up nine homers in double-A, as his HR/9 rate increased to 0.84 and his ground-ball rate dropped a little below average. Overall, he allowed 141 hits in 158.0 innings of work. The right-hander will probably begin the year back in double-A where he can hopefully improve his worm-burning numbers before moving up to the hitter’s haven that is Las Vegas. Drabek has the potential to be a No. 1 or 2 starter.

3. Zach Stewart, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas Tech University (Cincinnati)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

The club’s No. 1 prospect before the Halladay trade, Stewart is more suited to this position on a team’s Top 10 list. The right-hander has good stuff but the jury is still out on if he’s a starter or reliever. Toronto seems committed to him as a starter, which makes sense considering the bullpen depth that the club has at this point. Stewart pitched for four teams and at three levels in ’09. He began the year in high-A ball and posted a 2.63 FIP in seven starts. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.77 FIP in another seven starts. Jumped to triple-A with the Reds, he moved to the bullpen and had a 3.42 FIP in nine appearances before moving to Toronto where he had a 3.42 FIP in 11 games. His control dipped with each promotion, going from 1.70 to 2.43 to 4.90, so he clearly has some more work to do. On the plus side, his strikeout rate rose from 6.80 to 7.54 to 10.52. Along with his excellent K-rate, Stewart produces a lot of ground-balls (53% in ’09). If he can sharpen his change-up, he could be a solid No. 3 starter.

4. J.P. Arencibia, C, Triple-A
DOB: January 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – University of Tennessee
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly year for Arencibia, who balked at making adjustments to his approach at the plate, which led to a dismal walk rate of just 5.2% (although it was an improvement over ’08). Arencibia had a breakout year in ’08 by hitting 27 homers and driving in 105 runs between high-A and double-A. However, his wOBA dropped from .402 in high-A to .348 in double-A… and it continued to slide in ’09, down to .316. His strikeout rate has gone from 18.5 to 21.0 to 24.5% during that same span. His BABIP also bottomed out in ’09 at .269, as his triple-slash line was just .236/.284/.444 in 466 triple-A at-bats. It was bad timing for Arencibia, who likely would have been in line for the starting gig in Toronto in 2010, if he had had even an average year at triple-A. On the positive side, Arencibia has made huge strides on defense and now projects to be an average-to-above-average MLB catcher. Unless his hitting improves, though, he could be relegated to platoon work or a back-up gig on a championship-caliber team.

5. Moises Sierra, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With one of the strongest outfield arms in all of minor league baseball, Sierra made huge strides at the plate in ’09. Just 21, he hit .286/.360/.393 in 405 at-bats at high-A ball. His walk rate has improved each of the past three seasons and it was 7.4% in ’09. His strikeout rate has dropped each year and it was just 16.3% in high-A, as Sierra is obviously becoming more confident at the plate. He also improved his base running in ’09 and stole 10 bases in 12 tries after being successful just 12 times in 23 tries in ’08. On the negative side, his power has yet to develop, although he has the potential to hit for power. His ISO rate has dropped each of the past three seasons from .154 to .118 to .106. The club was obviously happy with Sierra’s performance in ’09, which included a wOBA of .353, and he received a late-season promotion to double-A. After appearing in just nine games at that level last season, Sierra should return there for 2010. He is a breakout candidate for the new season.

6. Brad Mills, LHP, Triple-A
DOB: March 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 86-90 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Mills almost made the club out of spring training in ’09 – after an excellent ’08 season – and his value skyrocketed early in the year. Unfortunately, he had some ups-and-downs at triple-A and also battled injuries, which has caused him to fall out of favor with a lot of prospect watchers. Despite his “off year,” Mills still posted a 3.80 FIP at triple-A and showed acceptable control with a walk rate of 3.74 BB/9 and a good, but not great, strikeout rate at 7.68 K/9. Given two starts in the Majors, Mills tried to nibble and lacked confidence in his fastball and curveball, both of which had negative values in a small sample size (7.2 innings). If healthy in 2010, Mills should open the year back in triple-A but he could be one of the first pitchers called up.

7. Travis D’Arnaud, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round pick (Philadelphia)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

D’Arnaud could be ranked higher on this list but I’m taking the conservative approach as he played at low-A in ’09. Like Wallace, the club had tried to acquire this catcher via the draft but he was nabbed with the 37th overall pick by the Phillies. Toronto, picking 38th, ended up with Brett Cecil (a nice compensation). D’Arnaud, who turns 21 shortly, hit .255/.319/.419 in 482 at-bats in low-A ball last year (His numbers were depressed by a .279 BABIP). He showed good power potential with 38 doubles and 13 homers (.164 ISO). The catcher also had a pretty good approach at the plate with a walk rate of 7.6% and a strikeout rate of 15.6%. He has a good defensive reputation but he threw out just 23% of base stealers. The system suddenly has good depth at the catching position with the likes or Arencibia, D’Arnaud, and Carlos Perez.

8. Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Low-A
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus change-up, slider

Alvarez is an exciting prospect because his fastball has been gaining velocity over the past two seasons and now sits comfortably in the low 90s, and it has excellent sink. That good downward movement resulted in a ground-ball rate of 51.4% at low-A in ’09. The right-hander gave up just one homer in 124.1 innings of work, while also posting a 2.43 FIP as a teenager. He also showed excellent control for his age with a walk rate of 1.38 BB/9. Still learning how to set up hitters, Alvarez’ strikeout rate was just 6.66 K/9 but his breaking ball has strikeout potential. He’ll move up to High-A ball in 2010 at the age just 20.

9. Carlos Perez, C, Rookie
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The organization has not had much luck handing out large contracts to big-named international free agents, but Perez joins Alvarez and Sierra as one of the Jays’ best under-the-radar Latin signings. The catcher is solid defensive (albeit it with the usual youthful development needs), and he’s also becoming quite a force at the plate thanks to his solid batting eye. Perez, 19, made his North American debut in ’09 at rookie ball and hit .291/.364/.433 in 141 at-bats. After walking more than he struck out in the Dominican Summer League in ’08, he posted a respectable walk rate of 9.8% in the Gulf Coast League. He also showed some line-drive pop (.142 ISO) and he is more athletic than most catchers.

10. Danny Farquhar, RHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – University of Louisiana-Lafayette
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, change-up

There are a number of other prospects that could have slid in here such as Gustavo Pierre, Tyler Pastornicky, Justin Jackson – interestingly enough all shortstops – because the system has so many sleepers in it right now (but few “can’t miss” names). Tim Collins was also an option here, but he projects to be a left-handed reliever, so his ceiling is a little lower than Farquhar who could develop into an eighth-inning guy, if not a closer. The right-hander comes at hitters from a variety of arm angles and can reach the low-90s from a sidearm slot. Perhaps because he throws so many different pitches – and with so many angles – Farquhar’s control has suffered and he posted a walk rate of 5.91 BB/9 in double-A. That obviously has to improve before he’ll have much success in the Majors. Despite that fact, he posted a 10.05 K/9 rate and allowed just one homer and 31 hits in 45.2 innings at the double-A level.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals

Like so many elements of today’s national pastime, the structure of minor league baseball has a direct lineage to Branch Rickey. The first sabermetrician, as it were, created the modern farm system around the time of the Great Depression in the 1930s. Almost nothing about baseball back then is the same today, and yet, the minor league ladder is never questioned. Each Major League team has six affiliates, to which they assign a contrived order of importance: Rookie League, A-ball, Triple-A, you know the drill. Players are given promotions when they’ve shown a “mastery” of a level, which is almost always either on the back of a hot streak, or because there’s someone below that is ready to take their spot. And for going on 80 years, we’ve simply assumed this is the way it should be.

With the goal that player development should be about building confidence and refining skills, I today offer an idea for change. My series on sinkers last week found how often good pitchers are let down by bad defenses at the lower levels of the minor leagues. With this suggested change, an onus would be put on young position players to value defense more, which can’t be a bad thing. Here’s my (fun?) six-step program to creating an entirely different Minor League structure:

1) Determine the best position for each regular season, full-time player.

2) During Spring Training, rank the players at each position defensively, in four quadrants: great, good, bad, terrible.

3) Do an extensive evaluation of the proportions and park effects at each affiliated minor league stadium.

4) Determine the groundball aptitude of all minor league pitchers, and like you did, separate the players in four quadrants: the most to least worm-burning pitchers.

5) Use this to build your minor league teams:
– Team 1: Groundballiest pitchers with great infielders, terrible outfielders, smallest stadium.
– Team 2: Second groundballiest pitchers with good infielders, bad outfielders, second smallest stadium.
– Team 3: Second flyballiest pitchers with bad infielders, good outfielders, second largest stadium.
– Team 4: Flyballiest pitchers with terrible infielders, great outfielders, most cavernous stadium.

6) Develop a series of challenges for each player that involves assignments to different teams to challenge their learned skills.

Yes, I think this is unrealistic, and no, I don’t think it is necessarily better than the current system. It’s Friday, though, and there’s no harm in having some fun. It also accomplishes some neat things:

1) It creates the best environment for pitchers to succeed. You’re playing to the pitchers’ strengths, and as a result, giving your best fielders the most chances to continue to improve their skills.

2) It creates a clear path for coaching assignments. For example, team 4 is most likely to be filled with power pitchers, who typically struggle with change-ups. The organization’s pitching coach that best teaches the change-up is thus assigned to this team. And so on.

3) The biggest weakness, without question, is that it would have disproportionate effects on offensive performance. Since it’s unlikely any other team would do this — the rest sticking to the traditional structure — you’re risking putting a “Triple-A” caliber hitter into a “Low-A” league/environment. And vice versa.

4) This all makes the farm director more important than ever before. With an understanding of his farm system, the director would be responsible for moving players around when they aren’t being challenged, and finding the best (and most ready) players to be called up to the Major Leagues. This shouldn’t be a difficult task, but it’s certainly asking more from the position.

At the end of the day, the minor league ladder still exists for the same reasons that closers, five-man rotations and sacrifice bunts do: because no one is willing to overtly challenge convention. Any editorial to do so is, admittedly, hot air, but this is still one structure that seems to skate by without questioning. I hope to hear about your opinions about the current structure, my suggested one, or any other ideas you guys have for change in the comments.