The Chicago Cubs club has been one of the most active organizations when it comes to signing amateur talent out of Korea. This year, the Cubs received better-than-expected results from shortstop Hak-Ju Lee.

The 18-year-old infielder showed an advance approach at the plate for his age. He hit .330/.399/.420 in 264 at-bats. Lee posted a more than respectable walk rate of 10.5 BB% and a reasonable strikeout rate of 18.9 K%. He also had 25 steals in 33 attempts. Lee was incredibly consistent, hitting .300 in each month of the year, and he also hit more than .300 against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.

Defensively, Lee showed excellent range at shortstop, but he made 27 errors in 61 games. Many young fielders – even those that go on to win Gold Gloves – struggle with errors in the low minors, so there is little to be concerned about; it’s more important to dwell on the range he exhibited. Lee is also still working his way back from Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow.

Pitcher Dae-Eun Rhee, 20, has perhaps even more potential than Lee, as he was ranked as the Cubs’ 4th overall prospect entering 2009, according to Baseball America, even though had Tommy John surgery after just 10 pro starts in 2008. Rhee had an impressive debut in ’08 when he allowed just 28 hits in 40 low-A ball innings. He also posted a walk rate of 3.60 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.43 K/9. Rhee did not give up a home run. When healthy, he’s shown an 88-93 mph fastball, a plus changeup and a good curveball.

There are two other Korean players worth keeping an eye on in the Cubs organization, and both were signed along with Lee in 2008. Right-handed pitcher Su-Min Jung, 19, was treated with baby gloves in his debut season in ’09. He made two shutout appearances in rookie ball (three innings) before moving up to short-season ball. Jung allowed 23 hits in 24.2 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 4.01 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.20 K/9. He showed some rough edges with a home-run rate of 1.46 HR/9 (despite a solid ground-ball rate) and a FIP of 5.63.

Outfielder Jae-Hoon Ha made his debut in ’09 at the Cubs’ short-season affiliate. The 18-year-old prospect hit .242/.264/.327 with a walk rate of 2.4 BB% and a strikeout rate of 12.5 K%. The numbers are certainly not exciting, but the right-handed hitter was young for the league, he was adapting to the North-American lifestyle, and his BABIP was just .270.

Ground-ball rates are rather trendy right now in Major League Baseball, and for good reason. If you can find pitchers with high strikeout rates, as well as high ground-ball rates, then you have a real keeper on your staff. The rational behind the love of the ground ball is pretty simple. If a ball is hit on the ground it’s pretty hard for it to leave the park for a three-run homer.

With enough innings to qualify (He pitched 61.1 innings before being shutdown to protect his arm), the Blue Jays’ Marc Rzepczynski would rank 13th in the Major Leagues in ground-ball rate, sandwiched between Josh Johnson of the Marlins and Mike Pelfrey of the Mets. The Giants’ Daniel Runzler has a ground-ball rate of 50%, albeit it in a very small sample size of just 5.2 innings (seven appearances).

Both Rzepczynski and Runzler have something in common. They were both selected in the 2007 amateur draft and both players were taken out of UC Riverside. In his minor league career spanning parts of three seasons, Rzepczynski had a ground-ball rate of 63.8%, which is 2.4% better than current MLB leader Joel Pineiro’s 61.4%. Runzler has a career minor-league rate of 62.8%.

In the past six drafts (2004-09), 17 pitchers have been selected out of UC Riverside. Prior to the 2007 draft, the most notable pitchers out of the six taken were Anthony Claggett (drafted by the Tigers and traded to the Yankees), and Daniel Stange (drafted by the Diamondbacks). Neither pitcher has an overly impressive career ground-ball rate.

Then comes the 2007 draft. Along with Rzepczynski and Runzler, James Simmons (Athletics) and Adam Reifer (Cardinals) were also drafted. Both pitchers have struggled more than their former teammates, but they continue to have potential as both pitchers made their clubs’ Top 30 prospect lists prior to 2009 (according to Baseball America).

Since being drafted, Simmons’ ground-ball rates have actually declined each year, which could very well be one of the reasons why he’s struggled to live up to being selected 25th overall in ’07. His repertoire, minus the worm-burning, is pretty average. Reifer had a dazzling first full season in pro ball in 2008 but he struggled mightily this season. His ground-ball rate dropped 15% – and he also lost 3.0 K/9 off of his strikeout rate.

In 2008, two more pitchers – both relievers in pro ball – were selected out of UC Riverside, although Robert Waite (Tigers) was the highest drafted player in the 17th round. Stephen Penney was also selected and signed with Seattle. Waite’s career ground-ball rate is 54.5%, and Penney’s is 54.9%.

Five more players were selected in 2009 and three of those pitchers also displayed solid ground-ball rates in their debuts: Joe Kelly (Cardinals, 56.4 GB%), Paul Applebee (Nationals, 40.6%), Matt Montgomery (Marlins, 64.7%), Paul Bargas (Rockies, 38.8%), and Ryan Platt (Brewers, 54.4%).

Perhaps it’s a coincidence that many UC Riverside pitchers have shown the ability to induce an above-average number of ground balls. Then again, maybe it’s not by chance and the school’s coaching staff is on to something. Either way, UC Riverside alums should be followed over the next few seasons – especially if ground-ball rates continue to gain in popularity.

Toronto Blue Jays prospect J.P. Arencibia has had quite an interesting baseball career – both as an amateur and a pro. The catcher tied Alex Rodriguez‘ high-school mark for most career home runs at Westminster Christian high school in Florida. He was also a star player at the University of Tennessee, which led to him being selected 21st overall in the 2007 draft as the second college backstop taken; Matt Wieters went fifth overall to Baltimore.

A year after signing, Arencibia had a breakout year at the plate. He spent the season split between high-A and double-A with a combined triple-slash line of .298/.322/.527 with 27 homers and 105 RBI. It was the second-best offensive season for a catcher in 2008 behind… Wieters. Fast-forward to September 2009 and Wieters is playing behind the dish for Baltimore, while Arencibia has packed it in for the season and is probably back home in Florida. So what went wrong for the Jays prospect?

It can be tied to his approach at the plate, or more specifically, his walk rate. Even during his star campaign in 2008, Arencibia’s rate was 4.2% at high-A and just 2.6% at double-A. His strikeout rates were 18.5% and 21.0%. In 2009 at triple-A Las Vegas, his walk rate was 5.3% and his strikeout rate was 24.5%. With his power (.200+ career ISO), the whiff rate is reasonable. The walk rate, though, is not acceptable on any level. Overall in 2009, the right-handed hitter managed a line of just .236/.284/.444 with 21 homers in 466 at-bats.

Advanced pitchers (but many of whom are not good enough to pitch long-term in the Majors) exploited Arencibia’s approach. It’s pretty clear that there is no point in throwing him a quality strike with less than two strikes. He makes Mr. First-Pitch-Swinging Vernon Wells look down right selective. Ahead in the count, Arencibia hit .298, no doubt because pitchers had to groove a fastball down the middle of the plate. His strikeout rate was 13% in that situation. Behind in the count, Arencibia hit .185 with 63 Ks and zero walks in 162 at-bats (for a K rate of 32%).

Whereas Arencibia’s value has diminished as a hitter, his defense has actually improved significantly to the point where he is considered an above-average defensive catcher. When he was drafted, there were questions about whether or not he’d be able to stick as a catcher. Prior to the 2009 draft, Baseball America stated, “The verdict is out on whether he’ll stay behind the plate as a pro. His receiving skills are rudimentary at best, and his footwork prevents him from getting off better throws despite solid-average to plus arm strength.”

This excerpt is from the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

[Arencibia] has thrown out 33 percent of runners attempting to steal (20 of 61) since starting this season by gunning down just five of 31.

“Now I’m getting respected as a defensive catcher,” said Arencibia, who often throws out runners from his knees. “I feel I’m throwing better than I’ve ever thrown, and all aspects of my defense have gotten better.”

[Las Vegas] 51s manager Mike Basso, Toronto’s catching instructor the past two years and a former pro catcher, has worked extensively with Arencibia and said he has made great progress this season.

“He’s improved leaps and bounds from last year,” Basso said. “He has done a good job behind the plate, and he’s had spurts where he’s done good offensively.

As with most of the other 2009 Prospect Duds highlighted over the past two weeks, 2010 will be a big year for Arencibia. Once considered an offense-only prospect, he has the potential to be an all-around stud if he can learn from his mistakes. It’s been suggested more than once that he has been hesitant to change his aggressive ways, but that was before his struggles in 2009. If he can get that walk rate up to even 8-9%, the impact on his other numbers could be significant.

It’s not uncommon for prospects to receive more hype than they are worth, and Dayan Viciedo was one of those players in 2009. The Cuban defector came into the 2009 season as the No. 2 prospect in the Chicago White Sox system, according to Baseball America. He was also ranked by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus as the No. 4 overall prospect in the system.

In the 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America stated, “Viciedo has the power to hit 40-plus homers in a season, thanks to a quick swing that’s triggered by strong wrists… He’s an aggressive hitter who will chase bad pitches… Viciedo has a high ceiling but brings a bigger risk than the more experienced and athletic [Alexei] Ramirez.”

Knowing little about Viciedo – aside from the circulating scouting reports – I was cautious with my assessment of him last winter by stating, “Only 20, Dayan Viciedo will not step right in to the Major League roster like fellow Cuban Alexei Ramirez did last season. The third baseman will likely begin his career in High-A ball and could move up to Double-A around mid-season if the hype surrounding him is somewhat justified. He has plus-power potential, but there are concerns about his conditioning and drive.”

Viciedo earned a spot on the double-A squad in 2009 and hit .280/.317/.391 with 12 homers in 504 at-bats. His .111 ISO was a far cry from the projected 40-homer power. As well, his walk rate of 4.4 BB% left something to be desired. His strikeout rate was reasonable at 17.7 K%, especially if he does develop at least 20+ homer power.

Viciedo’s .692 OPS versus right-handed pitchers is cause for concern, as are the scouting reports that focused more and more on his lack of conditioning, which no doubt hindered him at the plate, as well as in the field. He showed worse range than Oakland’s Brett Wallace, widely considered to be a first baseman playing third base (especially based on his range). Unfortunately for Viciedo, he has yet to display enough power to be an asset at first base, and he lacks the mobility for even left field. The Cuban also performed poorly in a small sample size as the designated hitter in double-A, which could be a result of his focus issues.

It’s a good thing that Viciedo is just 20 years old. He has a lot of work to do – beginning off the field this winter. It is imperative that the Cuba native get into better shape, as well as an improved mindset, for the 2010 season. The sky remains the limit for Viciedo, but his takeoff was more than a little bumpy.

Engel Beltre entered 2009 as the seventh-best prospect, according to Baseball America, in a very deep Texas Rangers minor league system. The five-tool outfielder was originally given a large contract by the Boston Red Sox to sign as a non-drafted amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic. Beltre was sent to Texas in the trade for reliever Eric Gagne in 2007.

Oozing with tools, he hit .283 with 31 steals at low-A in 2008 as an 18 year old, which excited some prospect evaluators – especially those that all but ignore statistics and prefer to focus on projection based on what they observe. However, Beltre’s 15 walks in 566 at-bats (2.66 BB%) were a huge red flag for some, myself included. Prior to the 2009 season, I stated, “…His plate discipline is terrible… That approach is obviously not going to cut it at the upper levels of the minors, or the Majors, but Beltre is just 19-years-old and has plenty of time to improve the rougher aspects of his game.”

Youthful aggression is one thing; a sub-3.0 BB% is a whole other ball game. On the plus side, unlike someone like Seattle’s Greg Halman, Beltre’s pitiful walk rate was not coupled with an outlandish strikeout rate. The Texas prospect’s strikeout rate was 18.6 K%, which (kind of, sort of) eased some of the worry. Here is what Baseball America had to say about him pre-2009, “He’s a free swinger who must improve his patience and pitch selection… Beltre remains raw but his development is well ahead of schedule and his upside is enormous. Down the road, he could be a five-tool superstar center fielder.”

Well, that definitely did not happen in 2009. Still a teenager at 19, Beltre hit .227/.281/.317 in 357 at-bats in high-A for an OPS of .598. A BABIP of .282 certainly did not help, but his walk rate remained far too low at 4.5 BB% and his strikeout rate rose a bit over 2008 to 21.6 K%. Along with his terrible plate approach, the left-handed hitting Beltre cannot hit southpaws. He hit just .209/.254/.306 against them in 2009 and also posted a line of .220/.257/.262 in 2008. For some reason, the organization decided to give Beltre a late-season taste of double-A but he hit just .071 (1-for-14) in four games after coming back from a broken hamate bone.

There is no doubt that Beltre has some impressive tools. Unfortunately, many a prospect has disappeared in the bowels of obscurity despite as much – or more – raw talent. Beltre should definitely return to high-A ball in 2010 and remain there until he makes some adjustments with his approach.

You know a player is talented when he is ranked as an organization’s third best prospect despite not throwing a pitch in his entire pro career spanning two years. The Yankees’ Andrew Brackman was highly regarded coming off of his collegiate career at North Carolina State University. Despite focusing on two sports for much of his college career (baseball and basketball), the 6’10” Brackman made huge strides from a developmental standpoint and posted solid numbers in his junior year after focusing solely on baseball.

As Baseball America – the publication that ranked Brackman as the third best prospect in the system – stated prior to the ’07 draft, “Now a legitimate 6-foot-10, 240 pounds, his upside is considerable… He’s still unrefined, but even without the polish, Brackman shouldn’t slide out of the top 10 picks.”

Unfortunately for Brackman, he suffered an elbow injury that same year and questions about his health dropped him out of Top 10 consideration in the 2007 amateur draft. Undeterred, and ecstatic to get such a quality talent with the 30th overall pick, the Yankees organization grabbed the Ohio native and handed him a $4.55 million guaranteed contract with incentives that could push the deal to as much as $13 million. Immediately after the draft, though, the organization had Brackman undergo Tommy John surgery on his wonky elbow.

That surgery caused the big righty to miss his debut season in 2007, as well as the entire 2008 season. With a strong off-season between ’08 and ’09, Brackman was finally ready to go for the 2009 season and his debut was eagerly anticipated – but with some trepidation. As Baseball Prospectus stated pre-2009, “…To paraphrase Casey Stengel, Brackman has it in his body to be great, but whether or not he will be is anyone’s guess.”

The year started off well for Brackman as he allowed 28 hits in 25.2 innings of work in April. He walked just 11 batters and struck out 26. Things began to fall apart in May (despite the 2.45 ERA). He allowed just 24 hits in 33 innings but walked 21 to go along with 27 strikeouts. He completely fell apart in June and July by allowing 41 hits and 33 walks in 28 innings. Placed in the bullpen for August and September, Brackman recovered to allow 17 hits and 11 walks in 20 innings.

Overall in 2009, he ended his first season with 106 hits in 106.2 innings of work. The biggest downside was obviously the walk total, as he posted a walk rate of 6.41 BB/9. His strikeout rate was good at 8.69 K/9 and he did a respectable job of keeping the ball in the park with a homer rate of 0.68 HR/9. Brackman’s numbers were much better when he came out of the bullpen, which is likely a result of needing to improve his stamina, as well as his secondary pitches. He was, after all, injured and unable to pitch for a year and a half. Prior to the injury he was a two-pitch pitcher with a mid-to-high-90s fastball and a plus curveball. Both pitches showed some rust post-surgery.

In reality, Brackman’s season really wasn’t that bad, especially if you ignore the ERA (His FIP was 4.66). Yes, he was old for the league and did not dominate, but he was raw for his age coming into pro ball and his control has always been issue. The 2010 season will be a big one for Brackman, who will be 24. Luckily for him, he’s in an organization that can afford to be patient. The bullpen may be the best spot for the right-hander, but he needs innings so he’ll likely remain a starter. It’s been well documented that Brackman has considerable upside if everything clicks, and that belief remains true. But there aren’t many bigger gambles in baseball.

Boston Red Sox first base prospect Lars Anderson entered 2009 as the top overall prospect in the system, according to Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus. Anderson, 21, had originally been signed to an over-slot deal after being selected out of high school in the 18th round of the 2006 amateur draft.

In pre-2009 comments, Goldstein stated, “He projects for big numbers in all triple-slash categories, and should come lumbering into the middle of the Boston lineup by 2010.”

I was even more aggressive in my adoration of Anderson prior to 2009 and said, “Lars Anderson is the club’s top prospect and he could be knocking on the big-league door by mid-2009… He had an impressive walk rate of 17.9 BB%, but struck out at a rate of 32.3 K%.”

Interestingly, it wasn’t Anderson’s strikeout rate that doomed his 2009 season. It actually dropped from 32.3 K% in 133 double-A at-bats in 2008 to 25.5 K% this season. His walk rate was lower, but it remained more than respectable at 12.4 BB%. The most glaring drop was in the batting average. It dipped from .317 in high-A/double-A in 2008 to .233 in double-A in 2009. His BABIP played a huge part in the shift as it went from .367 (A+) and .435 (AA) to .293. His line-drive rate went from 19.9% (cumulative) last year to 13.0% in ’09.

It’s clear that Anderson’s small sample size numbers at double-A in ’08 (.316/.436/.526 in 133 at-bats) helped to gloss over the impact that the launching-pad-known-as-Lancaster had on his numbers (.921 OPS). That success may have very well buoyed his confidence for his late-season promotion. Even so, a .250 drop in OPS is shocking to the system. After slugging five homers in 133 double-A at-bats in 2008, Anderson hit just nine all year in ’09 in 447 at-bats. His ISO dropped from .200 to .112.

The good news is that Anderson’s plate rates held strong despite his struggles. His pre- and post-All-Star numbers are so different that it’s easy to speculate that a hidden injury may have been the root cause for the steep decline (.272/.366/.413 vs .154/.250/.208). The really good news is that Anderson played the season at the age of 21, so he has plenty of time to turn things around. Incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkilis or even Casey Kotchman can easily hold down the fort until the youngster is ready. He’ll just have to watch over his shoulder for Anthony Rizzo.

Infielder Mark Hallberg entered the 2009 season as the fourth-best prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system, according to Baseball America. The 23-year-old hitter was originally selected by the organization in the ninth round of the 2007 draft. According to Baseball America pre-2009, “Hallberg is an organization favorite because he’s polished and has few holes in his game. He understands his game and carries out a plan everyday…”

Looking back on my pre-season report on the Arizona Diamondbacks system, “Hallberg is a middle infielder who knows how to hit. His advanced approach has helped him reach high-A ball in just his first full season… Hallberg controls the strike zone well, but he lacks power and speed, which will likely push him to a part-time role in the Majors.”

Hallberg missed a good chunk of the 2008 season thanks to an injury but he still hit .283/.357/.368 with a walk rate of 9.9% and a strikeout rate of just 10.3% in 272 at-bats. He also played well in the now-defunct Hawaii Winter Baseball league.

However, the momentum did not carry over into 2009. Promoted to double-A, Hallberg hit just .257/.325/.323 with similar plate rates in 455 at-bats. The shortstop’s OPS dropped for the third straight season from .848 to .725 to .648. His ISO went from .150 to .085 to .066. On the plus side, he suffered with a low BABIP at .280 and he had a healthy line-drive rate at 18%.

Hallberg certainly slumped in 2009 and he’s currently no threat to the enigmatic Stephen Drew, the Diamondbacks’ incumbent shortstop. Perhaps sensing that, the organization ensured that Hallberg saw ample playing time at both second base and shortstop, with some third-base action thrown in for good measure.

The former No. 4 overall prospect in the system has a long way to go to reclaim his former title. At this point, he needs to add a little more oompf to his bat to even make it as a big-league utility player. The lack of middle infield depth in the system certainly works in his favor. Hallberg will likely head back to double-A Mobile to begin the 2010 season.

Dan Szymborski, the brain behind the popular ZiPS projections found here at FanGraphs, has put together three decades of MLE’s available for download at the click of a mouse. Talk about a fun way to kill some time while chilling in your mom’s basement. Where have you gone, Adam Hyzdu?

Perhaps at another time we’ll dig up some of the Ken Phelpses That Never Were, but for right now I want to focus in on some interesting seasons of current minor league players. Like for instance, did you know Ruben Gotay has 102 walks this season in Triple-A? This is same Ruben Gotay that has walked 60 times in 811 big league PA’s. Instead of getting a September call-up from the Arizona Diamonbacks, a team who is probably in need of a second baseman for 2010, Gotay is playing for Puerto Rico in the Baseball World Cup in Barcelona. His MLE line for 2009 was .258/.390/.402.

—Shelley Duncan, the brother of Chris Duncan and son of Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan, has already experienced his Kevin Maas-like day in the sun a couple of summers ago, but he may deserve another look. That shot may not come with the Yankees again, but he has a nifty looking MLE: .262/.346/.508 with 28 homers in 461 at-bats.

–The Cardinals’ suffered through months of Joe Thurston with an injured Troy Glaus on the shelf. They also traded away their third baseman of the future (Brett Wallace) and traded for Mark DeRosa. DeRosa’s production has been down since coming over the NL, no thanks to a wrist injury – .240/.314/.417. 25-year old Allen Craig, who has played extensively at third base throughout his career. has an MLE line of .277/.327/.455. DeRosa and Holliday are both free agents at the end of the season. Craig just might be the Cardinals’ 2010 starting 3B or LF.

–The Rays got much more than a throw in for a PTBNL in the Scott Kazmir deal. Sean Rodriguez, a middle infielder by trade, put together a solid season in the power department, with an MLE slugging % of .456. The Rays already have a pretty solid core of infielders, but Rodriguez could provide a nice power boost off the bench for next year.

—John Bowker is a mystery. For Triple-A Fresno, Bowker not only tearing the cover off of the ball, but was also walking in 18% of his plate appearances. Since being called up to the Bay, he’s doing his best Bengie Molina impersonation, drawing just one walk once in 42 plate appearances. His MLE line is .283/.385/.460. That production beats the heck out of everyone else in the Giants’ lineup save Sandoval, it’s too bad he wasn’t called up earlier, and it’s also too bad he’s not really shown much in the little playing time he has received.

Download the files for some fun, and please consider giving Dan some gratuity for his efforts.

Per innings ratios are often misleading. Identical pitchers can face the same number of batters and produce the same number of walks, strikeouts, and home runs while one completes more innings than the other. Defense plays an integral part in shutting down an opposition. If one of those pitchers has the Seattle Mariners defense behind him and the other has the Boston Red Sox, then you would imagine the pitcher benefiting from Franklin Gutierrez and Adrian Beltre will complete more innings.

The more defensive independent option is to look at total amount of strikeouts or walks on a per batters faced ratio. The ratios are easy to get a grasp on and have less room for outliers (at least in theory), which is why when you see a line that features 40% strikeouts and 6% walks you feel your eyes protrude and heart beat quicken.

Then you realize those percentages belong to a hitter and the magnetic field alters in the opposite direction.

Believe it or not, that line is real, and it belongs to the M’s Greg Halman. The 22-year-old has a history of striking out a ton and not walking very much. The differences between strikeouts and any other type of out is usually overplayed, but there’s something seriously flawed about an approach when the ratio is this high at the Double-A level. His other raw tools – mostly power and speed – are impressive. Impressive enough that Baseball America named him the Mariners number one prospect entering this season. Although that ranking came with this warning:

Weaknesses: For all his upside, Halman presents more risk than most No. 1 prospects. His pitch recognition is below-average, resulting in many swings and misses and mis-hits as he chases pitches out of the zone. He’s too aggressive at the plate to execute much of a plan, and as a result he strikes out too much and walks too little.

Our minor league leaderboards only track back to 2006, but as best as I can tell Halman’s rate represents the highest in the Southern League in this time period by a decent margin. For some reason, I don’t think that’s an honor Halman cares to hold.