It’s safe to say that things have not gone quite like the Kansas City Royals management thought it would in 2009. The club started off pretty well but faded quickly in the standings and the Major League club is now in fourth place in the American League Central division, 11.5 games out of first place.

While the big-league club is floundering, there is some good news on the farm – especially down in low-A ball with the Burlington Bees. In recent years, the Royals organization has been stung by its inability to develop its own starting pitchers. Young stud Zack Greinke has begun to shift that trend and more reinforcements are on the way (albeit it slowly).

The Royals organization drafted two 6’5” prep pitchers in the 2008 draft: Michael Montgomery (supplemental first round) and Tim Melville (fourth round). Melville was a first-round talent who fell due to signability concerns, but the Royals did what any good organization (desperately in need of minor league talent/depth) should do: It ponied up the cash for a deserving talent, giving the organization two outstanding pitching talents from the 2008 draft.

Montgomery, a left-hander, made 12 appearances (nine starts) in 2008 at rookie ball. In 42.2 innings, he allowed 31 hits and posted a 1.69 ERA (3.13 FIP). So far this year, he’s also kept his ERA below 2.00 at 1.69 (2.83 FIP). He’s allowed 33 hits in 48 innings of work. The southpaw, who just turned 20 years old, has posted a walk rate of 3.94 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.88 K/9. He has yet to allow a home run this season, after allowing just two in 2008.

Right-hander Melville signed too late to make his 2008 debut, so he’s a little bit behind Montgomery on the development chart. Nonetheless, he joined the left-hander in low-A ball in 2009, where he’s made 11 starts. In 50 innings, Melville has allowed 48 hits while posting rates of 3.96 BB/9 and 7.20 K/9. The 19-year-old hurler has allowed five home runs and he has a 3.78 ERA (4.34 FIP).

Despite their inexperience, both pitchers rank among the organization’s best three pitching prospects – along with high-A left-hander Danny Duffy. Montgomery features a low-90s fastball, as well as two well-developed secondary pitches: a curveball and changeup. Melville’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 95 mph, a good curveball and a developing changeup that needs work.

Fear not, Royals fans. Help is on the way… Unless Dayton Moore trades Montgomery and Melville for Jerry Hairston or Ramon Vazquez.

You’re excused if you’re thinking: Who the heck is Rene Tosoni?

Crowned the Most Valuable Player of Major League Baseball’s annual top-prospects showcase (for his pinch-hit RBI double, which led to the winning run for the World Team), Tosoni is a 23-year-old outfielder in the Minnesota Twins organization. The left-handed hitter was drafted in the 36th round of the 2006 draft and signed as a draft-and-follow (a now-defunct process) out of Chipola College in Florida. Tosoni was born in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, but he went to high school in British Columbia.

He got off to a hot start in his pro career in 2007 when he hit .301/.407/.428 with 13 stolen bases and three homers in 236 rookie ball at-bats. Injuries slowed his ascent in 2008 but he hit .300/.408/.414 with three steals and one homer in 140 high-A at-bats. This season in double-A, Tosoni’s batting average has slipped a bit, but he’s showing more power with a line of .278/.387/.480 with 10 homers and six steals in 273 at-bats. His ISO has nearly doubled from .114 to .201.

One disturbing trend is the constant increase in his strikeout rate each season, from 20.3 to 21.4 to 26 K%. His walk rate, though, has remained between 11.7 and 13.0 BB% during the past three seasons. Another issue affecting Tosoni’s prospect value is his inability to hit left-handed pitchers. This season he is hitting .330 versus right-handed pitchers, but just .159 against southpaws. His career batting average versus left-handed pitching is .230 and it’s .310 against right-handers.

Defensively, Tosoni is an average center-fielder with a good arm. His range, though, will probably move him to a corner outfield spot before too long. With average power, Tosoni could very well end up as a fourth outfielder (especially if continues to struggle against southpaws). With that said, he has shown more power this year, which could lead to a starting role at the Major League level.

Tosoni is probably six months to a year away from being MLB ready. He could potentially move into a platoon role with Carlos Gomez is center, or possibly make for a cheap replacement of Michael Cuddyer, although the club would certainly be giving up some power in the switch. With other top prospects like Ben Revere, Joe Benson, and Aaron Hicks on the way, Tosoni could also be used as trade bait – especially with the higher profile he’s developed thanks to his Futures game heroics.

Outfielder James McOwen is the current owner of the 45-game hitting streak, the minors’ longest since Roman Mejias hit in 55 straight — over 50 years ago. During the 45-game streak, McOwen has batted .398/.440/.536 for the High Desert Mavericks, the High-A affiliate for the Seattle Mariners. Obviously hitting safely in 45 straight games is quite a feat, so one might assume Jamie McOwen is some sort of valuable prospect, no?

Well, not exactly. McOwen didn’t make Baseball America’s Top 30 Mariners’ prospects in their latest handbook. He’s never been mentioned as a prospect by any of the other prospect gurus around the interwebs, such as Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law or John Sickels. What little I’ve been able to dig up is that he is what scouts call a “tweener”, meaning that while he might hit for some average, he won’t hit for the type of power you’d hope for out of a corner outfielder, and he can’t play center or any other up-the-middle type of position.

Looking at his minor league numbers, he has cut down on his strikeouts; they are down to 14.5% to 21% last year at the same level. His power production is up a bit, (.149 ISO) but it is hardly considered to be anything extraordinary in the hitter’s paradise that is the Cal League. With anyone in the middle of a 45-game hitting streak, you’d expect a high BABIP, which McOwen has, at .403. So there’s nothing whatsoever statistical here that backs up that McOwen is some sort of uber-prospect. He’s 23 years old, put up a ‘meh’ .323 wOBA last year, and as I said, is repeating a level.

McOwen’s hit streak is the 8th longest in minor league history. Just for kicks, let’s look at players with longer hitting streaks, and whether or not it translated into big league success. Take into consideration that the minors are quite what they are now, but:

• In 1919 Joe Wilhoit hit in 69 straight games for Wichita. In four seasons he played for four different teams, compiled 887 plate appearances and a wRAA of 4.
• In 1930 Joe DiMaggio (ever heard of him?) hit in 61 straight in the PCL. I think we know what sort of career he went on to have.
• I mentioned Roman Mejias earlier; he carved out a 9-year career, playing with the Pirates, the Colt .45’s and Red Sox. He had a career high .343 while with Houston, but for his career was a negative at the dish, with a -19.8 wRAA.
• In 1922, Otto Pahlman hit in 50-straight in the now defunct Illinois League. He never cracked a major league roster.
• In 1915, Jack Ness hit in 49-straight for Oakland and had the PCL record until The Yankee Clipper came along. Ness only lasted 12 games with the 1911 Tigers, and didn’t play in the minors again until the season after the streak, in 1916 with the White Sox. He played in just 87 total games in the big leagues, posting a .299 wOBA for his brief career.
• In 1945, Harry Chozen also hit in 49-straight for Mobile. The hit streak came eight years after he played one game for the Cincinnati Reds in where he went 1-for-4. That was it for his major league career. Despite the streak, he never was brought back to the majors.
• In 1925, Johnny Bates hit in 46 straight for Nashville of the Southern Association. There’s a Johnny Bates that had a pretty nifty 9-year career (164.3 wRAA), but that career ended in 1914. It’s doubtful that the same Johnny Bates was playing in the minors eleven years later at age 43, right? Because if so, then that’s just plain interesting.
• Sitting just behind McOwen is Brandon Watson, who hit in 43-straight games for Triple-A Columbus. He’s now 27, playing in the Diamondbacks organization, and his hitting for a .310 wOBA. In 96 major league plate appearances for his career he has a .216 wOBA.

Th lesson is here is these hit streaks are pretty meaningless in determining prospect status. Not trying to downplay his accomplishment, and here’s hoping he keeps the streak going. It goes without saying that McOwen is not the next Joltin’ Joe, but he’s not even necessarily a prospect.

With a pitching staff overflowing with the likes of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Tim Wakefield (as well as the injured Daisuke Matsuzaka), the Boston Red Sox club has a plethora of options for the starting rotation. And there is more on the way. Let’s update the “disgusting” (ie. enviable) starting pitcher depth in the minor league system:

Clay Buchholz: Doomed by a poor 2008 season, this 24-year-old hurler has turned things around in 2009 but the organization lacks a spot for him at the Major League level. Buchholz has a 2.11 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 93.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed just 59 hits, while posting a walk rate of 2.79 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.26 K/9. Right-handed hitters are managing a batting average of just .130 against Buchholz.

Michael Bowden: Like Buchholz, this 22-year-old right-hander would probably be pitching in the Majors for just about any other big league organization. In 16 triple-A starts, Bowden has an ERA of 3.32 (4.49 FIP) and he’s allowed 70 hits in 81.1 innings, while posting rates of 3.43 BB/9 and 5.98 K/9. He’s not flashy, but he has the potential to be a solid No. 3 starter.

Felix Doubront: This 21-year-old southpaw from Venezuela is not talked about as much as some of the other pitchers in the system, but you cannot ignore his potential. Doubront has a 3.71 ERA (3.93 FIP) in 15 double-A starts. He’s been a little too hittable with 64 hits allowed in 63 innings and he has a walk rate of 4.14 BB/9, but his strikeout rates have increased as he’s climbed the organizational ladder. With a little more command and control, Doubront could vault into the upper echelon of Boston pitching prospects.

Junichi Tazawa: Tazawa received a fair bit of press this past off-season as a highly-regarded Japanese amateur free agent. Boston payed a pretty penny for the right-hander, but he’s more than justified the contract with an excellent season in double-A. Tazawa has allowed 72 hits in 87 innings of work while posting a walk rate of 2.59 BB/9. He also has a strikeout rate of 8.17 K/9, while adjusting to life in North America. Tazawa has been particularly tough with runners in scoring position (.163 average, compared to .246 with the bases empty).

Casey Kelly: Things were not supposed to go quite this easily for Kelly. The 19-year-old doesn’t even want to be a pitcher; the former two-way prep prospect would much rather play everyday at shortstop. The organization agreed to let Kelly play shortstop in 2009 if he first pitched about 100 innings on the season. With 95 innings pitched, he’s about to leave the mound behind for 2009, but Kelly has excited just about everyone with his potential as a pitcher. He blew threw low-A with a 1.12 ERA (2.14 FIP) in nine starts. In eight high-A starts, Kelly has allowed 33 hits in 46.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 1.35 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. Kelly has a healthy groundball rate at 53%. If you’re the Boston management, you have to cross your fingers and pray that Kelly sucks big time with the stick so he’ll turn his attention back to pitching.

And Don’t forget about: Kyle Weiland, Nick Hagadone, Stolmy Pimentel, Brock Huntzinger, and Stephen Fife.

When southpaw hurler Marc Rzepczynski (pronounced Zep-Chin-Ski) took to the mound last night for the Toronto Blue Jays, he was the sixth rookie pitcher to start a game for Toronto this year. The 23-year-old pitcher was also the fourth left-handed rookie pitcher to start for the Jays this season.

Of all the rookie pitchers to throw for the Jays this season, Rzepczynski (and maybe Robert Ray) was the least heard about name (and hardest to spell). Not even manager Cito Gaston – or last night’s starting catcher Rod Barajas – had ever seen the rookie pitch.

Rzepczynski was a fifth round draft pick in 2007 out of the University of California-Riverside. He was also a college senior who had not even been drafted during his junior year. Less than three years later, Rzepczynski was a Major League Baseball player. The only players that have made it to the Majors who were taken between the second and fifth round of the 2007 draft are Rzepczynski, Jordan Zimmermann (2nd round, Washington), Jess Todd (2nd round, St. Louis) and Brad Mills (4th round, Toronto). Obviously, the Jays organization did a very good job in scouting and drafting Rzepczynski (not to mention Mills, who also debuted this year).

Rzepczynski’s biggest plus as a professional pitcher has been his groundball rate, which is an impressive 64.4% throughout his minor league career. He also has a career strikeout rate of 9.5 K/9. His biggest weakness – and something that was evident in his debut against Tampa Bay – is his lack on control. Rzepczynski has a career walk rate of 3.33 BB/9 and it was at 4.23 BB/9 in 14 double-A starts in 2009. Prior to his call-up, the left-hander also started two triple-A games where he allowed seven hits and four walks (and 16 Ks) in 11.1 innings.

During his debut last night, Rzepczynski walked four batters in six innings, but he allowed just two hits and struck out seven batters. He also induced seven groundball outs. Tampa Bay hitters flew into just four outs. His sinker sat between 86-88 mph last night with excellent downward movement, whereas his scouting reports have had him between 87-92 mph. Rzepczynski got the majority of his strikeouts because he mixed his pitches well and most of his Ks came on sliders and changeups.

There is no doubt that with just two starts above double-A – and just 16 starts above A-ball – Rzepczynski has been rushed out of necessity. If last night is any indication, though, he has a bright future, especially if he can tighten up his control. Right now, I would liken his potential to that of a left-handed version of Boston’s Justin Masterson.

The Cleveland Indians’ 2009 playoff hopes are all but dead with the club 11.5 games out of first place in the American League Central division. The club’s pitching has been disappointing. Fausto Carmona has started 12 games and has a 7.42 ERA (5.96 FIP), while David Huff has a 6.06 ERA (4.87 FIP) in 10 appearances. Jeremy Sowers has made nine starts while posting a 5.68 ERA (4.91 FIP). The club is last in the American League (14th overall) with a 5.28 team ERA and only the Orioles’ pitching staff has allowed more hits this season.

Help is on the way for the pitching staff. And that aid is coming in the form of two breakout Venezuelan pitching stars: Hector Rondon and Jeanmar Gomez. Rondon, a right-hander, was quietly signed out of Venezuela in 2004 as an international free agent. He came to North America in 2006 and enjoyed two good, but not great, seasons in the low minors. It was in 2008 at high-A ball that Rondon broke out and people began talking about him.

He allowed 130 hits in 145 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of just 2.61 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.00 K/9. His 145 strikeout total was tops in the organization. Rondon also had a 3.60 ERA and posted a FIP of 3.35.

Rondon has always shown good control as a professional pitcher and he commands his 89-94 mph fastball very well for such a young pitcher. It was the improvements on the 21-year-old’s secondary pitches that helped vault him up the prospect ladder. He began to command his plus changeup more often and he also tightened up the break on his slider.

With a good fastball, solid control and reliable secondary pitches, Rondon now has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 MLB starter. It shouldn’t be long before he gets his first taste of the big leagues; Rondon was promoted to triple-A yesterday.

Gomez, 20, is enjoying his breakout season in 2009. He began the year in high-A ball and posted a 2.63 ERA in four starts, while allowing just 17 hits and five walks in 24 innings of work. He also struck out 15 batters. Promoted to double-A with Rondon, Gomez has now allowed 65 hits in 70.2 innings. The right-hander has posted rates of 2.29 BB/9 and 7.39 K/9. He’s allowed just four home runs in double-A.

Prospect watchers really began to take notice of Gomez after he threw a nine-inning perfect game on May 21 of this year. The game took a bit out of him, though, as he then allowed 15 runs over his next three starts. He’s gotten back on track after allowing a total of just nine runs in five June starts.

Gomez’ stuff is not quite as sharp as Rondon’s, at this point. The younger right-hander has a low-90s fastball that tops out around 93 mph. His breaking ball is still more slurve than slider or curve, and his changeup is still developing. Gomez’ control is almost on par.

If both pitchers can continue to develop and show improvements for the rest of the 2009 season, Rondon could be ready to break camp with the big-league club in 2010, while Gomez should be ready by mid-2010. Both pitchers appear to have bright futures, which is great news for Cleveland fans.

When first baseman Lance Niekro walked off of the minor league baseball field for the last time in 2008, after unsuccessfully trying to recapture his Major League career, he could have left the game with a feeling of satisfaction.

Niekro had a respectable career as a hitter. The former second-round pick out of Florida Southern University appeared in 195 games with the San Francisco Giants during parts of four seasons in the big leagues. In 499 at-bats, he had a career Major League triple-slash line of .246/.288/.421. His nine-year Minor League line was .307/.340/.474.

But Niekro also played in a pretty big shadow. His father Joe and uncle Phil had amassed a combined 539 big-league wins and 46 seasons in the Majors. It was a shadow he could never truly escape. Every time he struggled with the bat, people would whisper that he should hang up his batting gloves for good and break out the family knuckleball.

Finally, at the age of 30, Niekro is embracing the shadow. On June 25, 2009, the right-hander took the mound for the first time as a full-time pitcher (He appeared in one game as a pitcher for triple-A Fresno in 2007 in a mop-up situation). Now with the Atlanta Braves organization – uncle Phil played for the organization for 18 seasons, father Joe played for them for two – the younger Niekro allowed two runs on six hits and two walks. He also struck out four batters and earned his first professional win. In his second game on July 3, Niekro worked three shutout innings with three hits and two walks allowed. He struck out two batters.

Niekro is a long, long way from realizing his dream of pitching in the Major Leagues. Currently throwing in the Gulf Coast League (rookie ball) against mostly 17- and 18-year-old hitters, his numbers must be taken with a grain of salt. The early reports on Niekro’s knuckleball are encouraging, but it takes a long time to truly master the pitch. If he does successfully harness the knuckler, though, it will make a great story and a fitting tribute to his father, who passed away in 2006.

The international free agent market opened yesterday with a number of high-profile signings of 16-year-old prospects out of Latin America. Many of the players signed on Thursday received six- to seven-figure bonuses bases on their tools and future projections. One of the most fascinating parts of scouting and development is that there are always diamonds in the rough to be found.

The New York Mets club is having a frustrating season at the Major League level, but the organization has to be pretty excited about one of its international free agent acquisitions from the 2007 signing period. Right-hander Jenrry Mejia, just 19 years old, has risen to double-A in just his first full season in North America. The best part is that the Mets organization signed Mejia for less than $20,000.

Mejia possesses a mid-90s fastball that is still adding velocity and a very good, deceptive changeup. His breaking ball – a curveball – is still developing. Mejia has shown good control for a young pitcher with limited professional pitching experience.

The Dominican hurler made his North American debut in the rookie league in 2008 after spending one season in the Dominican Summer League. Before the 2008 season was over, though, Mejia was pitching against college graduates in the short-season New York Penn League.

Despite jumping over low-A to begin 2009, Mejia had few problems in high-A ball, where he posted a 1.97 ERA and allowed just 41 hits in 50.1 innings of work. He had a walk rate of just 2.86 BB/9 and racked up a strikeout rate of 7.87. Mejia also induced ground balls at the rate of 65.4%, while allowing a line-drive rate of just 9.8%. Promoted to double-A as a teenager, he has actually had to work a little bit. In four starts, Mejia’s given up 23 hits in 21.2 innings, while posting rates of 3.74 BB/9 and 9.97 K/9. His ground-ball rate has remained solid at 53.6%, while his line-drive rate is still low at 10.1%.

Mejia is an exciting prospect – and not just because he’s holding his own as a teenager in double-A. He’s dominating with a good repertoire that promises to get even better as he fills out his frame and gains more experience spinning his curveball. As well, he works down in the zone better than most young pitchers (thanks in part to that changeup) and he’s allowed just two home runs this season in 72 innings of work combined between high-A and double-A.

If he can stay healthy, Mejia has the chance to be a No. 1 or 2 starter and his Major League career will very likely begin before his 21st birthday.

The international free agent market opened yesterday with a bang, with two 16-year old Latin Americans signing for huge bonuses. The Yankees signed catcher Gary Sanchez for a $3 million bonus, and the Cardinals, not to be outdone, spent $3.1 million on outfielder Wagner Mateo, a record amount for a Dominican position player. Signing kids to big bonus money involves a fair share of risk, as one doesn’t know fully what type of player or even person a 16-year old will grow up to be. A team has to feel fairly confident about it’s ability to scout and forecast a player’s potential, but these players still sort of feel like expensive lottery tickets.

Wily Mo Pena signed for what was once a record $2.44 million, and he had only two seasons in which his WAR was in the positive, and neither seasons were with the team that signed him. Joel Guzman also received a huge bonuses, and he has a whopping 62 big league plate appearances to his credit. Those are a couple of the bad stories, but there is one story of a bonus baby that currently is developing into a really good one, and that is Jesus Montero’s.

Signed for a $1.6 million bonus by the Yankees, scouts have raved about Montero’s future power potential, some going far as to grade his power an “8” on the 2-8 scouting scale. The knock was on his body, which some said he looked like Travis Hafner. (He’s currently listed at 6-4, 225). At 16-years old. I guess when you are projected to hit like vintage Travis Hafner, no one seems to mind.

Montero is just 19-years old and is currently dominating the minors. After posting a .326/.376/.491 line in Single-A ball, Montero started his season in the High-A Florida State League, a notoriously friendly league to pitching. In over a little 200 plate appearances, Montero was a man among boys, leading the league with a .444 wOBA. A promotion to Double-A has not slowed him, in 86 plate appearances Montero has a superb .325/.395/.571 line. Between Tampa and Trenton, he has just an 11.6% strikeout rate, which is outstanding for a young power hitter. His walk rate is 8%, but he should grow more patient at the plate with experience and maturity.

Montero just been playing like an absolute man child, and at this pace it’s not inconceivable that he’s ready for a big league job at 21-years old. But if there is hole in his game, it definitely on his defense. As a catcher, the young Venezuelan has allowed 74 stolen bases in the 43 games he’s caught this season, and has thrown out just 15 would be base-stealers.

A move to 1B or even DH could be in order, but we know the Yankees are pretty historically indifferent to defense. Maybe the Yankees think he’s their mini-Piazza. Hitting the way he has at a young age, maybe it’s not completely preposterous to believe so.

Andy Marte completed a backslide of epic proportions earlier in the year when he was designated for assignment to clear a roster spot for a Juan Salas, a relief pitcher who the Tribe claimed off of waivers from the Rays. No team claimed Marte, and Salas was later dumped on May 6th in favor of Matt Herges.

From being a top prospect to major downer, it seems like Andy Marte has been around forever. Dave Cameron already took us through Marte’s fall from grace back in February, but I’ll recap it quickly: Marte first hit the prospect scene after posting a .211 ISO in the Sally League in 2002 as an 18-year old. He showed impressive patience and pop in a tough hitter’s environment in the Carolina League (12% walk rate, .184 ISO) the following year. Marte continued to mash in the higher levels of the minors hit, with a nifty .269/.364/.525 “slash” line as a 20-year old in Double-A, and .275/.372/.506 as a 21-year old in Triple-A.

Going into 2006, by all appearances, Marte was ready for a big league job. Baseball America rated him the number one prospect in the Braves’ system and the 14th best overall, but with Chipper Jones receiving a three-year extension, Marte was traded to Boston for Edgar Renteria. Boston then flipped Marte along with Guillermo Mota, Kelly Shoppach to Cleveland Indians for Josh Bard, Coco Crisp, David Riske and Randy Newsom. To prospect geeks like me, it seemed a little strange to see a supposed future star get traded twice in one winter, and especially for solid-but-unspectacular players like Crisp and Renteria (who was coming off the worst season of his life).

You know the rest of the story. After being traded twice, Marte was terrible for Cleveland and middling in Triple-A, up until now. Last night for AAA Columbus, Marte went 4-for-4 with two doubles and a homer. In his last ten games, he’s hit .459/.512/.892. His overall line is now up to .319/.351/.527 for the season. It would be tempting to write that sort of performance off considering how this is his 8th season in the minors, but Marte is 25 years old, not young, yet hardly Quad-A age.

After being traded to Cleveland, Marte has gone from being posting decent walk rates to being downright hacky, walking in just around 5% of his plate appearances. His BABIP (.335) is a tad high, but doesn’t really show anything super-fluky. Marte is making solid contact, striking out in 16.7% of his plate appearances. His minor league equivalent is .287/.313/.458, definitely not the superstar level, but the Indians will take it, especially taking into account that Marte is regarded as being one of the better defenders in the minors, so much so, he was voted by minor league managers and coaches as the International League’s best defensive third baseman three years in a row (’05-’07). His Total Zone numbers match the scouting reports; in those 301 games, Marte has been worth +31 runs.

Marte still could and should be a productive major league player, even if merely productive is a fraction of what is upside once was perceived as. Since Mark DeRosa has been traded to St. Louis, Jhonny Peralta and his disappearing power act has taken up residency at third base for Cleveland. So once again, Marte has opportunity. Hopefully he can make the most of his next chance, because it should be coming soon.