Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Colorado Rockies.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Rockies or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto.

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If you’re the sort of person who likes to look around minor league statistical leaderboards for under-the-radar performance prospects, the name Francisco Sosa may have emerged on your radar in 2013. Sosa’s 2013 statline has several intriguing numbers: his triple-slash was .315/.397/.529, he clubbed 20 homers and ripped 35 doubles, and he also swiped 30 bases. No other player in the minor leagues attained that combination of doubles, homers, and steals.

Sosa doesn’t really show up on prospect lists, though, for a few reasons. For one, he was a 23-year-old left fielder in Low-A, on the wrong side of the defensive spectrum and well older than most legitimate prospects who have yet to sniff the upper minors. Second, 2013 was the first time in his six-year career that he posted remotely interesting numbers–only twice before had he managed an on-base percentage over .310, and only once had he slugged over .400. Finally, he played in the silliest home park in organized baseball.

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The Rockies’ Top 10 list includes two young pitchers with the potential to develop into No. 1 or 2 starters, as well as an outfielder with five-tool talent. So, in other words, there is some high-ceiling talent in this system but the overall depth in the organization is not overly compelling. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Kansas City Royals.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Royals or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto.

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Like many minor league/prospect columnists, I try to see as much live baseball and as many minor league players as I can. Typically, I catch four or five games a week during the minor league season. It can be a bit of a grind at times, but I keep at it for two reasons: First, I want to be able to have the best and most far-reaching coverage I can, and second, because I’m usually having an awesome time doing it.

Of course, some games are more fun to attend from a scouting perspective than others. It’s a lot more exciting to take in the raw power of Joey Gallo, the blinding speed of Terrance Gore, the sweet swing of Francisco Lindor, or the arm strength of Eddie Butler than it is to watch 23-year-old Appalachian League middle relievers throw 84-mph fastballs to 23-year-old Appalachian League utility players. As such, I try to optimize my time and attend games that have the best likelihood of featuring interesting prospects, especially the starting pitchers. Typically, this decision is informed by some combination of the statistics, draft/prospect status, and reported tools/stuff of the players in question–in a way, I’m using a crude version of the same ideas behind our own Carson Cistulli’s NERD scores.

It’s a tremendous feeling to see a prospect in person and have them live up to what their statistics and reputation suggest they should look like. I heard all year about Atlanta’s Mauricio Cabrera and his triple-digit heat, so it was great to see him in person and watch a radar gun read “100” when I finally managed to catch one of his starts in August. Likewise, it’s disappointing to see a player underperform expectations. However, the most amazing experiences I have at games come when a player who’s way off the radar–uninteresting numbers and no scouting buzz–suddenly commands the most rapt attention. It doesn’t happen often, but it does happen, and today I want to share one of my experiences with the phenomenon and tie it in with some of our beliefs about the way players–in particular, relief pitchers–ascend to MLB relevance.

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Three years ago, Chris Dwyer was being billed as part of a pitching renaissance in Kansas City. Along with fellow southpaws Danny Duffy, John Lamb and Mike Montgomery, he was going to comprise a formidable rotation of homegrown arms. The Royals’ had the top-ranked farm system in the game, and pitching was a big reason why. As KC fans know all too well, things haven’t exactly worked out as planned.

That doesn’t mean Dwyer is a lost cause. Health issues helped wreck his 2012 campaign — Dwyer lost weight and several mph off his fastball due to a thyroid condition — but he came back strong in 2013. The 25-year-old logged a 3.55 ERA in 28 starts at Omaha, and capped off his minor league season by pitching seven scoreless innings in the Triple-A championship game. He made his big-league debut in late September, tossing three scoreless innings over a pair of relief outings.

Dwyer still has command issues — he walked 4.1 batters per nine innings in Omaha — but the talent that once put him on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list is reemerging. His ranking may have plummeted, but his chances of contributing to the Royals pitching staff are very much alive. Read the rest of this entry »

The Royals have a solid system with depth and impact talents — both on the mound and in the field. Kansas City is one of few organizations with two potential top-of-the-rotation arms that could be ready to contribute at the big-league level by the end of 2014. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Tampa Bay Rays.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Rays or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

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Jake Odorizzi doesn’t have a signature offering. The 23-year-old right-hander doesn’t need one. He’s the top prospect in the Tampa Bay Rays organization thanks to solid command of a four-pitch mix.

Originally drafted 32nd overall by the Brewers in 2008, Odorizzi has twice been involved in franchise-altering transactions. Milwaukee sent him to Kansas City as part of the Zack Greinke trade, and Tampa Bay acquired him in the Wil Myers–James Shields deal.

Odorizzi talked about his evolution as pitcher, including the development of his repertoire, earlier this month. Read the rest of this entry »

The strength of the Rays organization is depth. The club lacks a true impact talent at the top of this list, although both Taylor Guerrieri and Hak-Ju Lee have the tools to be outstanding players if they can put injuries behind them. Read the rest of this entry »