Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Chicago Cubs.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Cubs or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

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Pierce Johnson is learning to pitch. That’s bad news for opposing hitters, because the 6-foot-3 right-hander has big-league-quality stuff. It’s good news for Cubs fans, as Chicago’s north-side team drafted him 43rd overall in 2012 out of Missouri State University.

Johnson had an opportunity to begin his professional career three years earlier. In 2009, Tampa Bay took him in the 15th round out of Faith Christian Academy in Arvada, Colo. Johnson opted to go the college route, though, which included an opportunity to spend two summers pitching in the Cape Cod League. Now he’s one of the top prospects in a system loaded with high-end potential.

Johnson talked about his maturation as a pitcher — including the fine-tuning of his repertoire — earlier this month. Read the rest of this entry »

The system is strong although it’s somewhat top heavy. The Top 10 list starts to taper offer after No. 8 but I’d consider the overall depth to be above average. The Cubs feature one of the most enviable one-through-four group of prospects in the game. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Milwaukee Brewers.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Brewers or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

Read the rest of this entry »

Mitch Haniger had an outstanding first professional season. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield prospect banged out 52 extra-base hits between two levels. That number is even more impressive given that two-thirds of his at bats came in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Overall, the 23-year-old [as of December] hit .264/.348/.431.

Originally drafted in 2009 by the Mets out of high school, Haniger opted to play college ball at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. In his junior season at Cal Poly, he hit .346 with a 1.064 OPS. Milwaukee then selected him 38th overall.

Haniger finished up his 2013 campaign in the Arizona Fall League with the Surprise Saguaros. He discussed his game, and the decision to bypass the Mets, during the last week of the AFL season. Read the rest of this entry »

C.J. Cron grew up with baseball. Three years into his professional career, he continues to grow as a player. The son of longtime minor league manager Chris Cron, he is the most-promising hitter in the Angels’ system. He also remains a work in progress.

A first-round pick in 2011 out of the University of Utah, Cron has power to match his size. Listed at 6-foot-4, 235 lbs,, he could become an impact hitter in the middle of a big league lineup. First he’ll have to rein in his free-swinging ways. In 1,281 plate appearances as a professional, he’s drawn just 50 free passes.

Cron spent the 2013 season with Double-A Arkansas, where he hit .274/.319/.428, with 14 home runs. He finished the year in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .413/.467/.700, in 80 at bats, for the Mesa Solar Sox. Cron talked about his game during the final week of the AFL campaign. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Los Angeles Angels.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Angels or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Houston / Miami / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

Read the rest of this entry »

The loss of draft picks due to free agent compensation has hurt the organization over the past few years. The Angels have one of the weaker systems in baseball — both in terms of depth and impact prospects. The pitching depth is much more sparse than the hitting. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Baltimore Orioles.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Orioles or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Chicago AL / Houston / Miami / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

Read the rest of this entry »

Just about anyone reading FanGraphs probably knows about the debate surrounding defensive statistics. About the only thing everyone seems to agree on is that all defensive statistics are inadequate reflections of defense, or at least need extremely large sample sizes to attain reliability. This is especially true with regard to catchers, whose defensive contributions are quite the riddle to solve.

These issues extend even more in the minor leagues, where the sole widely available statistics are the traditional ones–assists, putouts, errors, double plays, range factor, and fielding percentage. Needless to say, these are not broadly effective arbiters of defensive aptitude. Again, catcher defense is arguably even more elusive, with passed balls and caught-stealing percentage the only remotely notable metrics. The desperate search to link numbers to potential leads these stats to often stand for “receiving skills” and “throwing arm,” respectively, which is a gross overstatement of their utility.

In this post, I want to examine just how meaningful, or perhaps meaningless, the passed ball statistic is for catching prospects.

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