Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Toronto Blue Jays.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Jays or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Chicago AL / Miami / Seattle.

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This Top 10 (+5) list is the weakest collection of prospects that Toronto has had in the minors for quite a while now. Most of the talent is in A-ball or Rookie ball with a noticeable lack of depth at the upper levels, thanks to the 2012-13 trades that were supposed to turn the Jays into a winning club. On a positive note, there are quite a few players — including many who failed to make the list — that have the raw skills necessary to improve significantly in the coming year.

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Andy Burns is used to moving around. On the field, he has played all over the infield since being selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 11th round of the 2011 draft. His route to prospect status has been equally circuitous.

Originally drafted in 2008, the former two-time Colorado Baseball Player of the Year bypassed an opportunity to sign with his home-state Rockies, and opted instead to play collegiately at the University of Kentucky. Two years later, he transferred to the University of Arizona, but eligibility issues prevented him from seeing game action. Since signing a professional contract, he has hopscotched between minor-league outposts in British Columbia, Michigan, Florida and New Hampshire.

But this year he emerged as legitimate prospect. Splitting the season between High-A Dunedin — where he was voted the best defensive third baseman in the Florida State League — and Double-A New Hampshire, the 23-year-old hit .288/.346/.470. His right-handed stroke produced 56 extra-base hits, including 15 home runs. He also swiped 33 bases.

Burns continued his hot hitting in the Arizona Fall League, batting .312 for the Salt River Rafters. He talked about his path to prospect prosperity — including an adjustment to his hitting approach — during the final week of the AFL season. Read the rest of this entry »

Richie Mirowski is intriguing. The Washington Nationals pitching prospect features a unique array of offerings, as well as a “Who is this guy?” profile. A 24-year-old right-hander, he was selected in the 45th-round of the 2011 draft out of Oklahoma Baptist University.

This year, Mirowski had one of best seasons of any bullpen arm in baseball. Pitching at high-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, he went 10-3, 1.83 with 7 saves. In 45 appearances, covering 68-and-two-thirds innings, he had a .903 WHIP and 11.5 punch-outs-per-nine. The numbers were no mirage. In 2012, Mirowski logged a 1.85 ERA between Auburn and Hagerstown.

Mirowski wrapped up his 2013 campaign by pitching in the Arizona Fall League for the Mesa Solar Sox. He discussed his repertoire — which includes a split-change and a spike curveball — during the last week of the AFL season. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, Matt Eddy of Baseball America released his weekly report of minor-league transactions. On Tuesday, the present author pored over said report, with a view to identifying which players on it might have received favorable 2014 projections from Jared Cross’s Steamer projection system. On Wednesday, he (i.e. that same author) has written and published the following Hall of Fame internet post.

Projections for batters are prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers); for pitchers, to 150 innings (and 50 for relievers). Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Pitcher WAR is calculated by using kwERA, so as to best strip out park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014.

Below are the three notable minor-league acquisitions of the week that aren’t the Chicago Cubs’ acquisition of former Cleveland right-hander Paolo Espino.

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Knock on wood, I certainly hope so. This piece isn’t about sending a tribute to the area, rather it is a discussion of the composition of the minor leagues and those who reach the major leagues.

While this article became a study of a the California League’s population, the concept began when I was thinking about Jake Lamb’s prospect status. Lamb signed with the Diamondbacks last June and I stumbled upon him during his first Spring Training with the club — he ranked among the 10 best prospects I saw in Arizona. Intrigued, I followed his injury-riddled season closely and thought he would never garner the attention I believed he deserved because of his old age and collegiate pedigree (though, Hulet ranked him higher than anyone else this off season!).  Suddenly, I found myself buried in Excel attempting to discover what Jake Lamb’s chances were to become a major leaguer.

Statistical studies of prospects are difficult because the minor leagues are vast and rife with variables and failure. There are 189 teams across 16 full-season, short season and rookie leagues, each stocked with talent that may never make a major league 25-man roster. With over 5,000 minor leaguers vying for 750 MLB roster spots it can be easier to study the successes.

Studying only the players who reach the major leagues may be easier, but often such studies snag on “survivorship bias.” Survivorship bias may be present when a study’s population consists of a select group amongst a larger class. If one is going to study success, it’s wise to study failure too. For a demonstration of survivorship bias, read Dave Cameron’s post on The Value of Hunter Pence.

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At the end of last week, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the D-backs or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Chicago AL / Miami / Seattle.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to find some hidden gems.

The annual Rule 5 draft is just a few weeks away now that every Major League Baseball team has firmed up its 40-man roster for the winter. For about 10 years now — first as an unpaid blogger and later as a prospect scribe for FanGraphs — I’ve written about the draft and have seen its popularity grow even as the available talent has dwindled due to new roster rules that now allows clubs more time to evaluate their own prospects before having to make the difficult decision to protect or not to protect.

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For much the same reason that he published weekly statistical reports on the Arizona Fall League over the past month-plus (such as the very final one from Wednesday), the author is publishing here a combined statistical report for the various Caribbean winter leagues — again, not necessarily because such reports are of great utility for evaluating players, but because they provide a means by which to participate in those leagues which doesn’t also require a substantial investment in transport and lodging.

In this case, what the author has done is to identify the regressed hitting and pitching leaders in the Dominican Winter, Mexican Pacific, Puerto Rican, and Venezuelan Winter Leagues separately. What he’s then done is to combine the hitting and pitching leaders of those leagues into a triumvirate of top-10 lists, which one can find below. Note: all ages are as of July 1, 2013; all organizations, as of the end of regular-season play. Last week’s generally useful report on the Caribbean leagues is available here.

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When the Arizona Diamondbacks took Braden Shipley with the 15th-overall pick of this year’s draft, they brought on board a pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and a high ceiling. They also acquired a student of the game. The 21-year-old University of Nevada-Reno product can overmatch hitters, but he has the mentality of a power-pitching technician.

Shipley’s advanced feel for his craft is especially impressive considering his relative inexperience. A native of Medford, Ore., the right-hander didn’t begin pitching until his junior year of high school. During his freshman year at Nevada, Shipley was primarily a shortstop.

Shipley — who split his first professional season between short-season Hillsboro and Low-A South Bend — talked about his game earlier this month. Read the rest of this entry »