Austin Brice is a legitimate prospect. The Marlins spent $205,000 to sign him out of high school in 2010, and he was ranked as the sixteenth-best farmhand in the Miami organization by Baseball America coming into the 2013 season, an area of prospect lists he will likely to continue to reside in this offseason. He’s just 21, has two pitches that flash plus, and has a prototypical pitcher’s body and smooth, easy, delivery.

He also has 190 career walks in 279 2/3 professional innings, including 82 in 113 frames in 2013. That’s a career 14.88% walk rate and a 15.16% mark in 2013, a number that was actually a step back from 2012 (14.08%) even though he was repeating the Low-A level (his ERA also shot up from 4.35 to 5.73, and his K-rate fell from 25.26% to 20.52%. Certainly, this past season did not bring the young righthander much good news.

Plenty of pitching prospects pair tantalizing stuff with frustrating inabilities to throw strikes, but Brice (whom I saw five different times in 2013, a virtue of living 45 minutes from NewBridge Bank Park) is an especially frustrating case because, as I said above, his delivery is one of his strengths. In this piece, I’m going to examine the root of his control problems and tie it to some more general and important lessons about the process behind throwing strikes.

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Andrew Heaney is one of the reasons the Marlins have a brighter future than you might think. The team has a plethora of talented young arms, and the 22-year-old southpaw is poised to join Jose Fernandez and his 23-and-under brethren in the Miami rotation.

Drafted ninth-overall in 2012 out of Oklahoma State, Heaney was impressive this summer in his first full professional season. In 19 starts between high-A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville, he went 9-3 with a 1.60 ERA. The NCAA’s strikeout leader in his final year in Stillwater, Heaney features a low-to-mid-90s fastball and solid command.

Heaney — who is further honing his skills in the Arizona Fall League, with the Glendale Desert Dogs — talked about his repertoire and approach earlier this week. Read the rest of this entry »

The Marlins organization boasts impressive pitching talent, as well as some up-and-coming hitting prospects. Three members of the Top 10 came from the 2012 blockbuster trade with Toronto, while a waiver claim from that same organization found his way into the 15th slot. Some strong drafting in the past couple of years has also helped improve the organizational depth. Read the rest of this entry »

The author has published a weekly statistical report for the Arizona Fall League each week since its brief season commenced back in October — not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.

What follows is the the penultimate edition of this site’s weekly statistical report for the AFL, which league concludes with this Saturday’s championship game.

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Players are sent to the Arizona Fall League for all sorts of reasons. The MLB-owned prospect-laden fall league serves as a domestic winter league, and so teams use it as they wish. But once you are selected as an all-star, an AFL Rising Star, you’ve got a unique stamp of approval, something akin to being an all-star in a league of all-stars. And now that the Rising Stars game has been around since 2006, we have some data to see exactly what that selection means for a prospect.

Some teams send players to Arizona because they were injured during the year and need to build up arm strength, innings pitched, or plate appearances. Some teams send players to try out a new position. Some teams send fast-track prospects from the low minors so that they preview what play in the high minors will look like. Some teams send polished picks straight from the college ranks so that they can skip a level on their way to the bigs. Some teams send prospects they might like to trade so that they might look better to future trade partners after some time in the offensive-friendly league. Most teams send players that face the Rule 5 draft if they aren’t moved to the forty-man roster.

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The relentlessly Canadian Marc Hulet published earlier today his first organizational prospect list of the 2013-14 offseason — in this case, for the Chicago White Sox.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, that Hulet has considered the overall value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the White Sox or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

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Quick: Who led minor league pitchers in FIP this year?* You might guess one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, such as Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker, or Robert Stephenson. Or you might rack your brain thinking about 2013 breakout A-ball pitchers like C.J. Edwards, Tyler Glasnow, or Edwin Escobar. In either case, you’d be wrong, because the answer is little-known White Sox pitching prospect Tony Bucciferro.

*Minimum 80 IP. Giants relief prospect Derek Law had a lower FIP in 77 2/3, but I wanted to isolate starters.

Bucciferro’s 2013 numbers are certainly something to behold. Across three starts in the Rookie-Advanced Appalachian League and 13 outings (12 starts) in the Low-A South Atlantic League, he amassed 96 strikeouts, six walks, and a mere three homers allowed in 90 2/3 innings, good for a 1.74 FIP (2.48 ERA). Those numbers seem impossible to ignore, and yet Bucciferro registers barely a blip on the prospect radar. In this post, I will examine why he’s been successful, why he’s been ignored, and take a systematic look at how pitchers with this sort of statistical profile fare.

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Coming into the 2013 season, Marcus Semien was a nothing-special prospect in a not-so-good Chicago White Sox system. Eight months later, the system isn’t markedly better, but the 23-year-old infielder is.

A sixth-round pick in 2011 out of Cal-Berkeley, Semien broke out this year. Playing in Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte, he hit a robust .284/.401/.479 and earned a September call-up. In 21 games for Chicago’s south-side squad, he batted .261 and banged out his first two big-league home runs. The former Golden Bear is currently wrapping up his second-full professional season in the Arizona Fall League with the Glendale Desert Dogs.

Semien — who climbs to No. 4 in this year’s White Sox rankings — talked about his much-improved game last week. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the first of 30 Top 10 prospects lists that will be featured on FanGraphs between now and March.

I’ve spent every offseason ranking prospects at FanGraphs since 2008, and I truly believe this year’s collection of top prospects lists is the best yet. Along with reading about 15 prospects for each club, you’ll receive a future ceiling grade projection (20-80) for the Top 10 players in each organization. You’ll also read companion pieces from the prospect writing team from both FanGraphs and RotoGraphs, as well as related prospect interviews from David Laurila.

The lists and player profiles are created through first-person observation and by speaking with scouts, coaches, players and front office contacts (including assistant general managers, scouting directors and directors of player development). I can proudly say that some of the brightest minds from around the game weigh in on the rankings.

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It’s hard not to be excited about Kris Bryant. The 21-year-old Chicago Cubs prospect stands 6-foot-5, weighs 215 pounds and has monster power from the right side. Drafted second overall this year out of the University of San Diego, where he hit a best-in-the-nation 31 home runs, he profiles as a bigger version of Ron Santo.

Based on early returns, that doesn’t qualify as hyperbole. The young third baseman hit .336/.390/.688 between Low-A Boise and High-A Daytona this summer. Assigned to the Arizona Fall League for further seasoning, he is currently leading the circuit with six home runs and a 1.182 OPS.

Bryant realizes he’s not ready for the big leagues. A student of hitting, he’s aware he needs more at bats before he’s fully prepared to take aim at the Wrigley Field bleachers. How many more is yet to be determined, but given his raw talent, he should be a force once he reaches Chicago.

Bryant talked about his offensive game — including wisdom passed to him via Ted Williams — in the final week of the minor league season. Read the rest of this entry »