When the New York Yankees selected Cito Culver in the first round of the 2010 draft, the pick was met with surprise — shock actually. From upstate New York, the teenage shortstop was pegged as a third round pick or later by most accounts. Two years later, Culver’s batting average is just above the “Mendoza Line” and his slugging percentage sits below .300.
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Whether fair or not, being a first round pick carries lofty expectations. In the case of Phillies prospect Larry Greene, my assumption was that the young outfielder would be the best player on the field when seeing him play about a month ago. To my surprise, he wound up being the third best prospect on his own team behind shortstop Roman Quinn and third baseman Mitch Walding whom I’ve written about recently.
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This was written in January, but is being re-posted with Villanueva on his way to Chicago as part of the Ryan Dempster trade.
In 2011, Hickory was a hotbed of minor league talent including the best true shortstop prospect in baseball and multiple first round picks in catcher Kellin Deglan, center fielder Jake Skole and pitcher Luke Jackson. If not for being blown away by Boston Red Sox shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts, my trip to Greenville would have been highlighted by a modestly performing, all but unknown third base prospect named Christian Villanueva. Villanueva went on to belt 10 home runs and steal 14/15 bases over the final two months of the season raising his prospect profile to legitimate sleeper.
The San Francisco Giants have secured a veteran outfielder for the stretch run but it comes at the cost of a young catching prospect.
Tommy Joseph, 21, was the organization’s second round draft pick in 2009 and he’s moved methodically through the minor league system, one level each year, and landed in double-A to begin the 2012 season. Despite being known as an offensive-minded catcher, the Arizona native has yet to post a wRC+ above 95, meaning he’s struggled to produce league-average offense. Despite that, he’s shown raw power potential and slugged 22 home runs in 127 high-A games last season. This season his isolated power rating has dipped to .132 (from .198 in ’11).
Joseph doesn’t hit for average, his walk rate is modest and he flirts with 20% strikeout rates so he’ll need to remain at catcher to have any true value at the big league level. Defensively, he’s made strides in the finer aspects of his game, which is good news because his strong arm would be wasted at first base and he just doesn’t have the type of profile that hints at future success there.
In the weeks leading up to the 2012 Major League Baseball Rule 4 Draft, Deven Marrero was considered a potential top-10 overall pick. The Pittsburgh Pirates were considered an ideal landing spot at eighth overall considering the organization has fielded just one, two-win shortstop since 1995 in Jack Wilson.
As the draft unfolded, the story of the day became Stanford University pitcher Mark Appel falling out of the top-three and into Pittsburgh’s lap. That turn of events played a role in Marrero slipping to the Boston Red Sox at 24th overall. Soon after being drafted, the Red Sox and Marrero agreed to a 2.05 million dollar bonus — $300,000 more than the recommended slot number for the 24th pick. Read the rest of this entry »
Jeff Luhnow is at it again. The Houston Astros general manager has flipped starting third baseman Chris Johnson to the playoff-hungry Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for two fringe-B-level prospects.
The approach being utilized by Houston is an excellent one. The organization does not have highly-sought-after commodities to trade (Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, Wandy Rodriguez, Johnson) so they’re seeking former highly-regarded prospects that have fallen in value but remain promising.
From Arizona, Houston acquired two outfielders that were taken within the first 64 picks of the 2009 amateur draft: Bobby Borchering (16th overall) and Marc Krauss (64th). Neither player is a sure-fire big league regular but both should see time with the Astros and the 27-year-old Johnson is not a regular third baseman; he didn’t play the hot corner, he played a lukewarm corner.
The Milwaukee Brewers finally pulled the trigger on the trade that everyone was expecting: The team traded starting pitcher Zack Greinke. In return, the Los Angeles Angels sent a three-prospect package, which middle infielder Jean Segura headlined.
Segura, 22, was recently promoted to the majors for the first time in his pro career and was one of the Angels’ top prospects — if not their best, with the graduation of MVP candidate Mike Trout — but the system is also among the bottom 10 in baseball (and now possibly is one of the five worst). Milwaukee — another bottom-feeder, in terms of their minor league system — moves up a couple of slots with this deal that also included Double-A pitchers John Hellweg and Ariel Pena.
The scouting highlight of my time in upstate, New York was not 2011 first rounders Taylor Guerrieri (Rays) or Larry Greene (Phillies). Nor was it Red Sox 2012 first round pick Deven Merrero. How about 2011 second round picks Roman Quinn (Phillies) and Williams Jerez (Red Sox)? No. Without a doubt, the most impressive few minutes of my five games scouted in New York was the batting practice display put on by Phillies third base prospect Mitch Walding. So frequent were the balls leaving Falcon Park, home of the Auburn Doubledays, that I was compelled to find the distance down the right field line as I kept having flashbacks of Asheville and its sub-300 foot porch.
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Jameson Taillon has been considered one of the top pitching prospects in the minors since signing with the Pirates for $6.5 million as the second overall pick in the 2010 draft. What I’ve seen has matched the hype, but he does have some things to work on. I scouted Taillon in a short spring training outing and two full outings with the Pirates Hi-A affiliate in Bradenton. I’ll have notes on the rest of the Bradenton squad coming soon.
We’re wrapping up the review of my pre-season Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects list. You can read the previous three parts of this series by clicking the links below:
Prospects 100-76
Prospects 75-51
Prospects 50-26
25. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta: Vizcaino was haunted by elbow injuries in previous years and finally succumbed to Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the year. He should return to full strength in 2013 and it will be interesting to see if Atlanta views him as a long-term starter or reliever. (Value Down)
