Author Archive

What’s Next For The Astros?

Plenty has been written in the last few days about Major League Baseball’s findings during its investigation into the Astros and the pending inquiry into the Red Sox, the penalties that were received or will be, and what these punishments say about baseball. The various (and sometimes divergent) constituencies commissioner Rob Manfred had to satisfy made doing so basically impossible; I’ve made it clear how I feel about the punishments. The Astros dismissed Jeff Luhnow and AJ Hinch following their suspension by MLB. The Red Sox mutually parted ways with Alex Cora on Tuesday; Carlos Beltrán and the Mets followed suit Thursday afternoon. It is and will continue to be a dark time for the league.

But even as the ramifications of the scandal continue to make themselves felt, we can look ahead to how we think the Astros baseball operations group might operate going forward. Houston’s baseball ops groups was already on the small side before Luhnow was fired, both by design and as a result of recent departures. In the last year or so, the club has lost Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal, and Eve Rosenbaum to the Orioles, Mike Fast and Ronit Shah to the Braves, and Oz Ocampo to the Pirates. Colin Wyers departed the organization, but hasn’t yet landed with another team. Brandon Taubman was fired before being placed on baseball’s ineligible list; he can apply for reinstatement after this season. And all of that has come against the backdrop of another scouting purge, and a couple of lower-level departures. So what comes next in Houston? Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/15/20

12:28

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Just wrapped up some calls and I see that we have new font options in the chat software now.

COOL DOPE

12:29

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: We did the Cardinals prospect list today and the Braves should be coming either this week or on Monday. Handy nav bar under prospects at the top of the screen for the other lists we’ve done so far.

12:30

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: THE BOARD is always changing and I’ve been adding draft guys the last few weeks, so there’s dozens of new guys on all the lists if you haven’t checked in for awhile :https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa…

12:30

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I wrote this week about the Rays roster churn and unique posture: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/rays-continue-their-roster-chu…

12:31

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Jay wrote about the Houston sign stealing stuff: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rob-manfred-hammers-the-astros/

12:31

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and I’ve got something in for editing now about how the Astros will proceed from a baseball ops perspective

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/8/20

12:28

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout and special guest puppy Poe are within arms distance. Went to the UK/UGA hoops game last night because there is no offseason to scouting elite prospects. Eric and I have been pumping out prospect lists and NYM may go up as early as tomorrow. STL and ATL are both largely done.

12:28

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: My iPhone decided to pitch a fit this morning so it just got restored and I probably lost a bunch of files but in the scheme of things I probably needed to delete most of those since I was out of space anyway

12:29

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: As always, you can find all of our prospect information at the prospects home page from the prospects menu across the top of the site

12:29

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and many of your questions can be answered at THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa…

12:29

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: (which has included some key MLB Draft rankings changes/additions in the last week)

12:30

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: which includes new 2020 RHP Nick Bitsko:

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

Had a loud East Coast Pro outing where he started 94-96 and flashed a plus hook, usable changeup at 6’4/220 having turned 17 a month before. Hit 95 for the first time right after turning 16. Moved to our 2020 rankings: #17 overall, 3rd best HS arm for now fangraphs.com/prospects/the-…

Some @MLBDraft news: HS RHP Nick Bitsko from Eastern PA will graduate early, which will make the @UVABaseball commit eligible for the 2020 #MLBDraft. Potential top 10 pick this June.
7 Jan 2020

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/18/19

12:13

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, Scout is eating lunch and I have a bunch of errands to run once we finish up here

12:14

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Twins list came out this week: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-43-prospects-minnesota-twins/

12:14

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote up the scouting reports of Rule 5 guys: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/

12:15

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Dan did the projections end of the Rule 5: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/projecting-the-eleven-players-…

12:15

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Nats list is done and will be up tomorrow

12:15

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I broke a little news about the data wars on the amateur side: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-outlaws-amateur-trackman-data-exclusiv…

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/11/19

2:57

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from my San Diego hotel room, away from the huddled masses in the larger hotel down the street where everyone else is.

2:57

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I have the lengthy Twins list that should be set for tomorrow

2:58

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Some minor draft news on a 2020 player early enrolling to get into the 2022 class and skip being draft-eligible out of HS:

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

So the other shoe dropped on this one and KS prep SS Robert Moore (son of Dayton) announced today that he’s early-enrolling at Arkansas in January. Low 40 FV has been moved to 2022 rankings: fangraphs.com/prospects/the-…

Our 18th prospect in the 2020 draft is reported to be skipping his HS senior year to early enroll at Virginia, be draft eligible first in 2022. This has been rumored all summer, along with 2020 prep SS Robert Moore possibly early enrolling at Arkansas fangraphs.com/prospects/the-… twitter.com/NVBaseballMag/…
11 Dec 2019
2:58

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and, for those that haven’t heard, Eric and I are writing a book!

2:58

Avatar Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

Proud to announce that @longenhagen and I wrote a book: FUTURE VALUE, coming in April 2020.

We explore the tension between analytics and scouting along w/the state of the art & old school ways teams find superstars.

Preorder now triumphbooks.com/FutureValue for 20% off w/code FV20

22 Nov 2019
2:59

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Also, as long requested, we have a new drop-down menu that’s prospects only on the site, so it’s easier to find all of our stuff

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/4/19

11:59

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout and I are sitting on the bed while the kitchen floor gets sanded and refinished, which she is somehow sleeping through.

12:00

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: We’re in list season, so hit the new PROSPECTS dropdown at the top of the page to see the latest. Red Sox should be out tomorrow, Twins early next week while we’re all in San Diego for the Winter Meetings. We’ll be doing the WSH/HOU/STL/MIA spring training pod next.

12:02

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Eric has written up:

The Profar trade: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/padres-add-profar/

40-man decision day: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-40-man-decision-day-and-the-prospects-w…

MIL/SDP trade that happened right before last week’s chat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/analyzing-the-brewers-and-padres-swap-of-y…

12:02

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I wrote up the Nestor Cortes/SEA swap right before last week’s chat as well: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-add-cortes-for-international-bonu…

12:03

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and I think you guys will find some interesting sleepers and an overarching development in the BOS list tomorrow

12:03

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/27/19

11:43

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from a rainy ATL! Scout is napping in the other room and I’m scrambling to finish stuff before the holiday grocery shopping and prep. May share some finished products and more kitchen looks on my instagram @kileymcdaniel

11:43

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Also, there’s a bunch of moves happening in the last hour. Gibson to TEX, Pomeranz at SDP, Urias-Grisham MIL-SDP deal, so I’m sure we’ll spend time on that.

11:44

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Lastly, we were in NYC last week and had a live event that sold out and went really well! Eric and I joined Meg and Ben on stage for a prospects panel with a Q&A and it’s the last segment on this episode of EW: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1460-live-from-ne…

11:45

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: While at that event, Eric and I revealed something we’ve been hinting at for the last few weeks: we wrote a book!

11:46

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: you can preorder it here: https://www.triumphbooks.com/future-value-products-9781629377674.php?p
and use code FV20 to get 20% through the end of the year

11:47

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: there’s summaries there and on Amazon, but the idea is this is a follow-up on the happenings of Moneyball, about the tension between stats and scouting and where things are now in baseball. Also covers how to scout, how to get a job in baseball, how to train/get a scholarship as a player and many other things!

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Mariners Add Cortes for International Bonus Money

Yesterday, the Yankees traded utility lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. to the Mariners for international bonus pool money. A source indicated to Eric and me that the deal was for $30,000 of pool space (we’re told it’s all Seattle had left in their pool), while others characterized it as being in that range, if not that number exactly.

This move may seem insignificant, but it hints at the motivations and strategies of both clubs. Back in July, the Yankees were one of a couple teams we spotlighted as having a 40-man crunch on their hands (we had Cortes as the last guy to make the roster), so being able to get something in return for him rather than throwing him on waivers because they needed to clear roster spots makes for an easy decision. The price of claiming a player on waivers is $50,000, while we’ve found the return on investment of an international bonus dollar, including operational expenses, is about 300%. Most teams think of bonus pool money as being worth at least double its nominal value, but the Yankees — who consistently trade for extra pool money, with GM Brian Cashman emboldened by their quick returns on high-variance prospects in the international market — likely see it as much more valuable than that. Factor in that given Seattle’s interest, the odds of Cortes passing through waivers was zero, and this makes a ton of sense for New York.

Meanwhile, Seattle is ramping up to compete in 2021 and has open spots on its 40-man roster, so adding an accomplished depth piece with major league experience and remaining minor league options for just a bit over the waiver price, while shifting a little international money into their 40-man roster, fits their competitive posture. Cortes is a 5-foot-11 lefty who sits 88-91 mph and relies mostly on his fastball and slider, but also mixes in a changeup. He’s likely never going to be a role 5, 50 FV or a reliable bulk innings rotation piece, so the Yankees probably figured that one of the prospects recently added to the roster, or a veteran on a minor league deal who won’t need to be added to the 40-man until next season, can fill the same role. Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/13/19

12:32

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is patrolling the backyard and Eric and I are readying ourselves for the NYC live event and the first batch of team prospect lists

12:33

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know if he’s mentioned this yet, but we’ll be doing lists by spring training pod, since lots of pro coverage groups teams that way and it makes it easier to talk to each source once in the offseason instead of circling back a bunch of times

12:34

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and I just noticed it appears to be sold out already

12:34

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: so I’m just being a tease now

12:34

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: here’s the last thing i contributed to: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/6/19

12:19

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is sunbathing on the porch and the grout for the backsplash should be going in later today. Big changes to the chat as I figured out how to add a picture so you can tell me apart from people that ask questions as me. To your questions:

12:21

Archer: As a recent home purchaser whose kitchen  could use a slight face lift, I’d love to see the pictures of your new backsplash! Did you install yourself?

12:21

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I knew this would be the backsplash chat

12:21

Avatar Kiley McDaniel:

12:22

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: that’s mid installation, it’ll eventually go to the ceiling behind the vent

12:22

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Had the contractor’s guys do it. 5th contractor was the charm!

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