Author Archive

Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/11/19

2:57

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from my San Diego hotel room, away from the huddled masses in the larger hotel down the street where everyone else is.

2:57

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I have the lengthy Twins list that should be set for tomorrow

2:58

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Some minor draft news on a 2020 player early enrolling to get into the 2022 class and skip being draft-eligible out of HS:

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

So the other shoe dropped on this one and KS prep SS Robert Moore (son of Dayton) announced today that he’s early-enrolling at Arkansas in January. Low 40 FV has been moved to 2022 rankings: fangraphs.com/prospects/the-…

Our 18th prospect in the 2020 draft is reported to be skipping his HS senior year to early enroll at Virginia, be draft eligible first in 2022. This has been rumored all summer, along with 2020 prep SS Robert Moore possibly early enrolling at Arkansas fangraphs.com/prospects/the-… twitter.com/NVBaseballMag/…
11 Dec 2019
2:58

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and, for those that haven’t heard, Eric and I are writing a book!

2:58

Avatar Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

Proud to announce that @longenhagen and I wrote a book: FUTURE VALUE, coming in April 2020.

We explore the tension between analytics and scouting along w/the state of the art & old school ways teams find superstars.

Preorder now triumphbooks.com/FutureValue for 20% off w/code FV20

22 Nov 2019
2:59

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Also, as long requested, we have a new drop-down menu that’s prospects only on the site, so it’s easier to find all of our stuff

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/4/19

11:59

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout and I are sitting on the bed while the kitchen floor gets sanded and refinished, which she is somehow sleeping through.

12:00

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: We’re in list season, so hit the new PROSPECTS dropdown at the top of the page to see the latest. Red Sox should be out tomorrow, Twins early next week while we’re all in San Diego for the Winter Meetings. We’ll be doing the WSH/HOU/STL/MIA spring training pod next.

12:02

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Eric has written up:

The Profar trade: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/padres-add-profar/

40-man decision day: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-40-man-decision-day-and-the-prospects-w…

MIL/SDP trade that happened right before last week’s chat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/analyzing-the-brewers-and-padres-swap-of-y…

12:02

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I wrote up the Nestor Cortes/SEA swap right before last week’s chat as well: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-add-cortes-for-international-bonu…

12:03

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and I think you guys will find some interesting sleepers and an overarching development in the BOS list tomorrow

12:03

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/27/19

11:43

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from a rainy ATL! Scout is napping in the other room and I’m scrambling to finish stuff before the holiday grocery shopping and prep. May share some finished products and more kitchen looks on my instagram @kileymcdaniel

11:43

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Also, there’s a bunch of moves happening in the last hour. Gibson to TEX, Pomeranz at SDP, Urias-Grisham MIL-SDP deal, so I’m sure we’ll spend time on that.

11:44

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Lastly, we were in NYC last week and had a live event that sold out and went really well! Eric and I joined Meg and Ben on stage for a prospects panel with a Q&A and it’s the last segment on this episode of EW: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1460-live-from-ne…

11:45

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: While at that event, Eric and I revealed something we’ve been hinting at for the last few weeks: we wrote a book!

11:46

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: you can preorder it here: https://www.triumphbooks.com/future-value-products-9781629377674.php?p
and use code FV20 to get 20% through the end of the year

11:47

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: there’s summaries there and on Amazon, but the idea is this is a follow-up on the happenings of Moneyball, about the tension between stats and scouting and where things are now in baseball. Also covers how to scout, how to get a job in baseball, how to train/get a scholarship as a player and many other things!

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Mariners Add Cortes for International Bonus Money

Yesterday, the Yankees traded utility lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. to the Mariners for international bonus pool money. A source indicated to Eric and me that the deal was for $30,000 of pool space (we’re told it’s all Seattle had left in their pool), while others characterized it as being in that range, if not that number exactly.

This move may seem insignificant, but it hints at the motivations and strategies of both clubs. Back in July, the Yankees were one of a couple teams we spotlighted as having a 40-man crunch on their hands (we had Cortes as the last guy to make the roster), so being able to get something in return for him rather than throwing him on waivers because they needed to clear roster spots makes for an easy decision. The price of claiming a player on waivers is $50,000, while we’ve found the return on investment of an international bonus dollar, including operational expenses, is about 300%. Most teams think of bonus pool money as being worth at least double its nominal value, but the Yankees — who consistently trade for extra pool money, with GM Brian Cashman emboldened by their quick returns on high-variance prospects in the international market — likely see it as much more valuable than that. Factor in that given Seattle’s interest, the odds of Cortes passing through waivers was zero, and this makes a ton of sense for New York.

Meanwhile, Seattle is ramping up to compete in 2021 and has open spots on its 40-man roster, so adding an accomplished depth piece with major league experience and remaining minor league options for just a bit over the waiver price, while shifting a little international money into their 40-man roster, fits their competitive posture. Cortes is a 5-foot-11 lefty who sits 88-91 mph and relies mostly on his fastball and slider, but also mixes in a changeup. He’s likely never going to be a role 5, 50 FV or a reliable bulk innings rotation piece, so the Yankees probably figured that one of the prospects recently added to the roster, or a veteran on a minor league deal who won’t need to be added to the 40-man until next season, can fill the same role. Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/13/19

12:32

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is patrolling the backyard and Eric and I are readying ourselves for the NYC live event and the first batch of team prospect lists

12:33

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know if he’s mentioned this yet, but we’ll be doing lists by spring training pod, since lots of pro coverage groups teams that way and it makes it easier to talk to each source once in the offseason instead of circling back a bunch of times

12:34

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and I just noticed it appears to be sold out already

12:34

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: so I’m just being a tease now

12:34

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: here’s the last thing i contributed to: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/6/19

12:19

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is sunbathing on the porch and the grout for the backsplash should be going in later today. Big changes to the chat as I figured out how to add a picture so you can tell me apart from people that ask questions as me. To your questions:

12:21

Archer: As a recent home purchaser whose kitchen  could use a slight face lift, I’d love to see the pictures of your new backsplash! Did you install yourself?

12:21

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I knew this would be the backsplash chat

12:21

Avatar Kiley McDaniel:

12:22

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: that’s mid installation, it’ll eventually go to the ceiling behind the vent

12:22

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Had the contractor’s guys do it. 5th contractor was the charm!

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The Free-Agency Analysis FanGraphs Doesn’t Want You to Read, 2019 Edition

Last year, I wrote a post-length intro for our marathon Top 50 Free Agent list, which Carson Cistulli demanded I spin off into its own piece of scorching hot free agency takes. Like last year, I still have extra buzz that didn’t fit into today’s Top 50 post, and while Meg Rowley is less insistent on brevity than Carson was before her, she made the same request, so here it comes, at the molten lava temperatures that you prefer.

First, some bullet-pointed thoughts on specific teams likely to be active, as well as various player markets:

  • There’s some buzz that the White Sox will be active for veteran help, particularly on short-term deals with lower guarantees. After getting under the luxury tax, the Dodgers seem poised to spend, with multiple sources tying them to Rendon, while the two top pitchers on the market (Cole, Strasburg) are SoCal natives. The Yankees had the third-best record and third-best run differential in baseball, but seem a player or two short and weren’t able to stay under the luxury tax to reset the penalties; they seem likely to spend in this area again. Philadelphia seems primed to spend again this offseason to help get past Washington and Atlanta. Speaking of which, Atlanta has a stable of young players to fill in the back of the roster, but needs a couple frontline types from the top 10 of the list to raise their upside. Cincinnati, San Diego, and the Mets all seem to be focused on a playoff run in 2020, which could result in them making moves more aggressively this winter than other teams with similar talent.
  • Last year, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and Mike Moustakas were among the free agents most-squeezed in terms of the deal they eventually got vs. the deal they wanted/deserved. Keuchel and Moustakas are back on the market and I rounded down a bit on their projected deals in the Top 50 since they’re still the same players, but a year older, though Keuchel has now rid himself of a qualifying offer and its accompanying draft pick compensation. Players over 30 who seem unlikely to post 3 WAR or more simply aren’t what most clubs are looking for on a multi-year deal, especially when the most successful clubs seem to be finding two-win players between the couch cushions, or in the second and third tier of their prospect lists.
  • Teams want impact, durability, and youth when paying premium prices over a long term, and in this market, only Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon clearly possess all three attributes. The two profiles next-closest to that are guys who ended up moving up the board a bit throughout the process: Yasmani Grandal and Marcell Ozuna. They are entering their age-30 and age-29 seasons, respectively, with Grandal offering outstanding performance at a premium position, while Ozuna has youth, tools, and upside along with a pretty solid track record. I’d expect both to get four-year deals, which are increasingly rare below $100 million.
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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/16/19

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! I think we’re about a week away from announcing more about the project that Eric and I have been hinting at over the last few weeks…because it should be done soon.

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: And for those asking about the podcast project we’ve mentioned…that also will be disclosed in the coming weeks

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is eating lunch and I’m hopped up on caffeine, so let’s see what you guys have for me today

12:19

Theo: Looking at The Board, I see 14 60 FV prospects. If I’m trading Kris Bryant, could I realistically expect to get someone from that group in return?

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: We can tackle this in a broad way using  surplus value calculations:

12:22

Kiley McDaniel: and my internet is getting wonky, hold on a second

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/2/19

12:38

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is asleep sunbathing on the back porch, so I’m left to field your questions.

12:39

abgb123: First day time chat this week and it’s you, blah!

12:39

Kiley McDaniel: thanks for coming by, mom

12:39

Mary Anning’s Monster: Is it fairly clear that Hancock, Martin, and Tork are going in the top 3 and then what happens next is not clear?  If you were in the 4-10 range and needed a bat, who would you prefer?  Hassel?  PCA?

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: Good chance her to plug THE BOARD, which is our personal opinions of who to take amongst minor leaguers, draft and July 2 folks. It’s always being updated and the 2020 draft stuff has one more set of tweaks left before we announce “hey guys, come look at this, it’s new” but there’s over 500 guys on there, so you could say we’re pretty well informed

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/26/19

1:16

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Swapped chats with Craig and am juggling calls scheduled for today that have been shifting a bit.

1:17

Kiley McDaniel: this may be slightly abbreviated, but to your questions, as Scout sleeps in the other room:

1:17

David: Assuming the Rays have the money available, who says no: Diego Castillo, Liberatore, and Honeywell for Kris Bryant.

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: for 2 years of Bryant? Cubs turn that down pretty easily

1:18

A big dumb idiot : Is it fair to consider Vladito’s rookie season a disappointment? This isn’t to say his star has dimmed going forward, just that more was expected in 2019

1:19

Kiley McDaniel: i guess? the projection systems have him as true talent level north of what he’s done so far this year…but he’s also a college sophomore aged player that’s better than league average with the bat, so hard to say it’s been more than a slight disappointment

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