Author Archive

Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/16/19

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, just returned from Seattle and some delightful time with Eric and Meg including (huge shocker) great food and also Driveline Pro Day, which we’ll be writing up soon

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is wandering around the house trying to decide on which toy to play with while I’m at the computer

12:18

Andre: Does Kyle Wright or Ian Anderson have the stuff of a number one in the making?

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: We don’t see every #1 starter coming in advance, like Cliff Lee and maybe Jacob deGrom, but we see most of them coming (i.e. they were deemed to have ace upside before they did ace things). So, very unlikely for Wright/Anderson. Both have a chance to be a #2 but I would say #3 is what you’re realistically hoping for, which is a perennial 3 WAR player

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: If we say every pro pitcher has some non-zero chance of being an ace or every position player has some chance of putting up a 5 WAR season (call it 0.1%), Wright/Anderson are maybe 1-5%, so don’t plan on it, but they’re still elite in that they’re over 1% and that’s a very small population of pitchers.

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: And I’m eye-balling those numbers, but I think that rings true

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Kiley McDaniel FanGraphs Chat – 1/9/19

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: Hello everyone! After a quick technical issues, we’re off and running

12:22

Kiley McDaniel: The weather is now solid in ATL and I might go outside and rake some leaves later. Red Sox list is finalized and Eric and I are writing up the capsules today

12:23

Harris: Very surprising to only see Matt Vierling in the honorable mentions on the Phillies list. Could he make his way on by mid season?

12:23

Kiley McDaniel: Most 5th rounders don’t make the list the summer after they sign. There’s some tools there, so if he performs again, he’ll be on there

12:23

Larry: What do you expect from Amed Rosario this year? O/U 2 WAR?

12:23

Kiley McDaniel: Over, still big tools and made some 2nd half progress

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/4/19

2:08

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, an unusual time to chat but here we are.

2:08

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is watching the front yard studiously, barking at anyone that dares walk by on the sidewalk

2:09

Kiley McDaniel: The Phillies list went up earlier this week, the Mets list is done but will go up Monday and we’ve a good ways down the road on BOS and TB for next week

2:09

Kiley McDaniel: Draft list also is basically done but not time sensitive, so that will go up soon enough along with a new podcast

2:09

Tommyboy: With the announcement of Koby Perez as international scouting director, how long do you think it’ll take for the Os to be players in the international market?

2:09

Blazeball: Any word on late bloomers in the int’l market that the Orioles could sign?

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Kiley McDaniel Holiday Chat – 12/26/18

12:25

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, family was just packing up and leaving so had to see them off. First Christmas in the new house is now completed and it’s still standing. Now to finish up some NL East lists, finalize the draft update, make plans for NYE and chat with you people

12:27

Kiley McDaniel: I think the lists will go Phillies then Mets then it looks like we’re headed to the AL East.

12:27

Seth: Andrew Vaughn going to be the first strictly 1b to go in the top 5 in a long time?

12:29

Santa’s Marginal: Right now- Witt Jr or Abrams?

12:29

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, that’s how it looks right now re: Vaughn. Again, here’s the current draft board (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&te…) and the update will just be sliding 10-12 names around and expanding the end of it, mostly moving guys around in the middle of the list.  Vaughn is in the 50 FV tier behind the clear #1 Rutschman and that 2 thru 12 could be in a lot of orders. Since Vaughn is a track record college hitter, he’s probably in the top half of that tier, but it’s still super early, so guys will move with performance in season.

12:30

Kiley McDaniel: And on Abrams/Witt, its probably about 50/50 in the industry right now and they’re both in that tier. I think we’ll basically have them back-to-back in the update, so it’s more deferring the decision until we get more info.

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/19/18

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Nationals list coming soon, I would guess tomorrow with the Mets and Phillies both being worked on right now, but may be held until post Christmas. Sounds like AL East will come next.

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Also the winter meetings pushed back the draft list update but that’s also basically done and coming soon and I think we’re recording a podcast in the next 24-48 hours

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions

12:14

Lilith: Who from the Reds system are you most excited to see break out next year who might not be a well known prospect (yet)?

12:16

Kiley McDaniel: There’s the list. Some higher variance guys to keep an eye on would be the top righties from the last draft class (Josiah Gray moreso than Lyon Richardson), SS Jose Garcia, RF Danny Lantigua, RHP James Marinan, 2B Cash Case

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FanGraphs Audio Presents: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Ep. 8

UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 8
This is the eighth episode of a weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men. Below are some timestamps to make listening and navigation easier.

1:12 – Kiley’s plan to monetize a business

1:29 – MINI TOPIC: The guys’ thoughts on MLB’s deal with MGM regarding gambling

7:45 – TOPIC ONE: Offseason moves thus far and what we think will happen

8:10 – The Mariners teardown is drawing varied opinions around the game and it doesn’t sound like it’s over yet

15:18 – Eric asks, who is the magician’s assistant?

15:50 – The guys try to figure out what the Mets are doing

22:30 – Cleveland has done a few things and may be about to do some big things

25:38 – Eric foreshadows a Paul Goldschmidt deal by mentioning the glut of fringe everyday guys that the Cardinals have stacked up

26:40 – The guys run thru the Yankees’ offseason situation, with a quick J.T. Realmuto update

29:10 – A quick look at the Diamondbacks

30:09 – Breaking down the Braves’ moves thus far

33:15 – The Padres have made a few moves and seem poised to make many more

38:09 – TOPIC TWO: Reviewing the NL Central prospect lists

38:55 – The Cardinals, mentioning: Luken Baker, Malcom Nunez, Elehuris Montero, Jhon Torres, Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson.

41:22 – The Pirates, mentioning: Pablo Reyes, Carson Cistulli (ugh), Jared Oliva, Tahnaj Thomas, Cody Bolton, Oneil Cruz, Travis Swaggerty

44:09 – The Brewers, mentioning: Eduardo Garcia, Trent Grisham, Lucas Erceg, Marcos Diplan, Trey Supak, Lun Zhao, Troy Stokes Jr.

50:32 – The Reds, mentioning: Nick Senzel, Jonathan India, Edwin Yon, Mariel Bautista, Josiah Gray, Bren Spillane, Danny Lantigua, Cash Case, Mike Siani, Josh Brolin, Javier Bardem

58:35 – TOPIC THREE: Updating our 2019 MLB Draft rankings with the conclusion of the fall events

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 22 min play time.)

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Kiley McDaniel Chat: 12/5/18

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from the ATL. Head to fangraphs.com/prospects for our latest content, including the NL Central lists wrapping up this week with the NL East coming up next. Podcast going up later today

12:24

Jake Jortles: How bad was that Segura trade for the Mariners?  Seemed pretty terrible from here.

12:26

Kiley McDaniel: The Paxton deal was on the lower end of fine. This deal was maybe a little below that, in part because the market for SS’s isn’t large, there was guaranteed money, everyone knew he didn’t get along with Dee Gordon and SEA was aggressively dumping guaranteed money. Luckily they found a match of another team trying to dump money nobody wanted (Carlos Santana) that also had an MLB-ready everyday shortstop.

12:27

Kiley McDaniel: And by fine I mean the cold, economic asset value range–the Paxton deal was $35-50M in value for like $30-40M in value–where trades generally, in a vacuum tend to match up pretty well. The Segura deal had extenuating circumstances

12:27

Lilith: Is it likely that Bobby Witt Jr is going to fall in the draft due to his age and contact issues?

12:28

Kiley McDaniel: Fall would be relative to where he is now and everyone know his age now, so that’s not an issue in terms of where he’s headed. He’ll probably slide up a bit (we cover this in the podcast that’s coming out today) as he performed well at Jupiter and with Team USA, answering some of those contact questions.

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/28/18

12:20

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from FG ATL HQ where there’s a staggering amount of leaves in the backyard, but it allows Scout to run laps like she’s in the snow, leaving a trail when she pulls a tight turn

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of stuff happening with rumored trades, one big one done, free agency, prospect lists and a fresh draft rankings update coming next week

12:21

Tommy N.: Thoughts on Dan O’Dowd’s trade proposal yesterday on MLB Network of Thor and d’Arnaud for Hedges, Lucchesi, and Paddack?

12:23

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not terrible, but I don’t think that will get it done. We also don’t know if the Mets
1) won’t trade Thor/deGrom and are just listening
2) want to trade them both this winter
3) will consider only overpays, likely waiting at least until the summer to have a clear idea

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: So the price for option 2 and option 3 are probably different, since option 3 either gets an overpay or no deal

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: And until the BVW administration makes some moves, we don’t really know where they stand or how they value players, etc.

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FanGraphs Audio Presents: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Ep. 7

UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 7
This is the seventh episode of a weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men. Below are some timestamps to make listening and navigation easier.

1:41 – Our plugs, because we wrote a lot in the last week or so

2:52 – TOPIC ONE: FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards on his prospect asset value research that was rolled out this week over four articles

5:45 – Jason Heyward vs. Ronald Acuna Jr. in terms of service time and using that to count WAR

10:58 – Adjusting FV grades throughout a prospect’s career and how Craig adjusted for that and positional bias

15:15 – Can we put a dollar value on variance?

19:00 – Can we apply this framework to big leaguers?

25:15 – Craig takes a flamethrower to new managing editor Meg Rowley

25:45 – TOPIC TWO: New FanGraphs managing editor Meg Rowley joins the show to talk about the dark side of prospect asset value and what’s going on with the Mariners

27:00 – Are we bad people? You decide! (Meg decided.)

28:50 – Meg drops a swear. (Meg didn’t.)

30:50 – Kiley tries to defend himself

35:45 – Scrooge McDuck is referenced

40:25 – Does baseball’s salary structure need to completely change?

47:55 – Kiley proposes an ignored market inefficiency

52:10 – Meg bums everyone out

52:33 – We try to sort out our feelings about Dr. Lorena Martin’s accusations against the Mariners

1:14:13 – TOPIC THREE: Lightning round!

1:14:50 – SUBTOPIC ONE: MLB’s PDP program for high school players is expanding; how does this affect middle and lower income high school players, prep pitcher’s health, data collection, multi-sport athletes and the scouting schedule at large?

1:26:45 – Will this increase the trend of having more non-scouts having input in draft rooms?

1:28:10 – SUBTOPIC TWO: Houston and Baltimore’s front offices hiring influx, where they stand with staffing, how they’re making decisions and what assets Baltimore should be moving in the short-term

1:46:17 – SUBTOPIC THREE: U. of Arkansas pitching coach Wes Johnson was hired to go straight to the big leagues as the Minnesota Twins pitching coach on Rocco Baldelli’s new coaching staff. Is this a new pipeline of high-end college coaches heading straight to MLB?

1:53:00 – The job that MLB teams are outsourcing to the internet

1:56:30 – A somber goodbye to our dearly departed Carson Cistulli

2:02:12 – Eric brings up our third bummer topic of the podcast

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 2 hr 2 min play time.)

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Kiley McDaniel Turkey Chat – 11/21/18

11:03

Kiley McDaniel: Here I am, a bit ahead of schedule given the vagaries of holiday family blah blah blah

11:03

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote up the Paxton trade prospects yesterday here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/updating-the-prospects-in-…

11:04

Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote up the CLE/TB trade: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cleveland-swaps-teenage-athlete-for-pi…

11:04

Kiley McDaniel: and we have the STL list up, PIT list is already done, coming Monday and here’s the primer on the changes to THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-board-updated-for-2019…

11:04

Tumbler, Whiskey: You were brilliantly composed on MLB Network yesterday. Nice job. That is all.

11:04

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks! Yes, I also did that.

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