Kiley McDaniel Chat – 1/8/20

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout and special guest puppy Poe are within arms distance. Went to the UK/UGA hoops game last night because there is no offseason to scouting elite prospects. Eric and I have been pumping out prospect lists and NYM may go up as early as tomorrow. STL and ATL are both largely done.

Kiley McDaniel: My iPhone decided to pitch a fit this morning so it just got restored and I probably lost a bunch of files but in the scheme of things I probably needed to delete most of those since I was out of space anyway

Kiley McDaniel: As always, you can find all of our prospect information at the prospects home page from the prospects menu across the top of the site

Kiley McDaniel: and many of your questions can be answered at THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa…

Kiley McDaniel: (which has included some key MLB Draft rankings changes/additions in the last week)

Kiley McDaniel: which includes new 2020 RHP Nick Bitsko:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Had a loud East Coast Pro outing where he started 94-96 and flashed a plus hook, usable changeup at 6’4/220 having turned 17 a month before. Hit 95 for the first time right after turning 16. Moved to our 2020 rankings: #17 overall, 3rd best HS arm for now fangraphs.com/prospects/the-…

Jonathan Mayo@JonathanMayo

Some @MLBDraft news: HS RHP Nick Bitsko from Eastern PA will graduate early, which will make the @UVABaseball commit eligible for the 2020 #MLBDraft. Potential top 10 pick this June.

7 Jan 2020

Kiley McDaniel: and lastly, Eric and I wrote a book and you can get a deal on preordering it here:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Proud to announce that @longenhagen and I wrote a book: FUTURE VALUE, coming in April 2020.

We explore the tension between analytics and scouting along w/the state of the art & old school ways teams find superstars.

Preorder now triumphbooks.com/FutureValue for 20% off w/code FV20

22 Nov 2019

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Mike: So is it just the Astros and Red Sox that are tied up in the sign stealing? Or are there still more teams involved here that haven’t been reported yet?

Kiley McDaniel: So the ESPN/Passan and Rosenthal+Drellich/Athletic pieces yesterday seem to suggest that HOU and BOS are both being investigated and HOU’s punishment could be coming soon, while the BOS stuff seems to be a little further off in terms of timetable

Kiley McDaniel: The distinction is that HOU had info coming from illegal camera to hitters feat. trash can while BOS had info coming from gray area replay camera to some person who then gave it to baserunners who then did the old school signaling from second base stuff

Kiley McDaniel: The HOU style thing (which is rumored to include signals from pitchers in the bullpen with arms on the OF wall) is still rumored to be done by multiple teams, with HOU the most and most strongly rumored offender

Kiley McDaniel: the BOS style of using the replay room as a grayish area intermediary to make traditional sign stealing a little easier is the thing that it’s possible all 30 teams were doing at some frequency, but it also could’ve just been like 7-15 teams

Frank: What does an Arenado to Atlanta trade package look like?

Kiley McDaniel: Without paying down Arenado’s salary in a huge way (which I can’t see them doing), it wouldn’t make any sense for ATL to not be in on any 150M+ free agents, then trade for a guy with 200M+ left on his deal and seemingly not have had interest in Rendon, who wouldn’t have cost prospects.

Kiley McDaniel: Kris Bryant (once the grievance gets worked out) continues to make the most sense. ATL has lots of MLB-ready young pitching that likely won’t contribute in a big way in the short-term, they’ve had a few years for this regime to have opinions on them, Bryant covers the short-term window without a giant cost in terms of money, prospects or long-term contract

Kiley McDaniel: (and CHC needs young pitching)

John: Nate Pearson’s command was a big concern during his 2018 AFL outings and you guys noted it in your 2018/19 FG Jays prospect report on him. While he put up impressive stats in 2019, his command still seems sub par if people were to actually watch his 2019. What is the hype with NP considering his massive command concerns?

Kiley McDaniel: Well the scout the stat line crew has the opposite opinion

Kiley McDaniel: But, generally speaking, having reasonable control but below average command with huge stuff and athleticism are the building blocks to have command and/or not need fine command because your stuff is so good. On top of that, Pearson has skirted the issue of having huge velo and that increasing the chances of arm injuries, which he hasn’t had. We’re working out some top 100 stuff, but he’ll be in there pretty good.

TMNT: Can we get a state filter on the draft board? Would make it easier to look at prospects from specific areas. Also, can we get something like a date stamp on the player blurbs? Would give a better idea how recent the info is

Kiley McDaniel: Agree on the state filter, but you can type “HS TN” in the search bar and get prep players by state. It’s not as good as a state filter, but then typing vanderbilt and tennessee and you’ve got the whole state other than lower tier colleges/JCs

Stuafoo: To what extent are teams allowed to negotiate an extension with a player as a prerequisite to a trade?

Kiley McDaniel: I believe you can negotiate to get a 48-hour window

Narvain: Hey Kiley, love your guys’ prospect coverage!  Just curious, do you guys have an order for the 2020 team prospect lists or is it just kind of random?

Kiley McDaniel: We’re going by spring training “pods” or groups/gluts of those stadiums since coverage often is grouped by that and neighboring teams often know each other better from instructs/GCL+AZL/spring training, so things are much more efficient in terms of speaking with scouts

Kiley McDaniel: but if you aren’t aware of where the ST stadiums are then, yes, it would appear to be random

Lenny: Was Bitsko reclassifying expected or totally out of left field?

Kiley McDaniel: Not shocking given the talent and age relative to 2021 class, but hadn’t heard rumors of this one specifically and we’ve heard rumors weeks or months before at least on like 80-90% of these

Kiley Fan: What asset would you rather have: Bryant current deal, Arenados deal or Donaldson at 4yr $110m?

Kiley McDaniel: Arenado/Donaldson are essentially market value if not a bit higher due to winner’s curse and Bryant has lots of surplus value due to the arb system. Not close at all.

Doug: I heard Andres Gimenez’s struggled in AA were related to trying to get to more power with an approach/swing change, and that when he reverted back to a more contact oriented approach late in the summer and AFL, his results rebounded. Can you confirm something of this nature and does Gimenez still profile for you as a solid 50 FV?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes 50 FV. Go look at his stats at this age/level vs. Lindor’s.

Leo: Hey, Kiley. You guys have Alexander Vargas fifth in the Yankees system, and I’ve seen other publications (not naming names) omit him from their top twenty and even top thirty. Do you think certain types of players inspire more grading variance in the industry? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, generally at the very low levels (DSL, AZL/GCL) so Vargas fits the bill. Some of the best signal we have for triangulating on stuff like this is when we think a guy should be stuffed and we’re told 3-4 teams have tried to trade for him in the last 6 months. Then it’s clear it isn’t a secret and we’re on the right track. This starts happening around the 45 FV level if it’s a guy that some teams think are a secret but basically only happens on top 100-150 types in full-season ball

Kiley McDaniel: or maybe a little lower if one teams farm system is trash and they don’t have anyone that good

Guest: This HS pitcher I just heard existed yesterday – Nick Bitsko – seems pretty next level. He’s got the elite dims and looks the part on the mound. How close to a Cole/Beckett/Fernandez level prospect out of HS was he going to be for 2021 and how much more possible is it out now that he’s 2020 eligible?

Kiley McDaniel: Lucky for you we have his pitch grades and an updated blurb and have him ranked, so I think that covers all of this? https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s…

Colby: Will Riley Greene stick in CF?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so but it was a flat no before last spring and now it’s a longshot maybe

Ash Ketchup: Wenceel Perez and Freudis Nova seem like similar prospects to me. With Nova staying at an FV45 in the Astros’ write-up, might we expect the same of Wenceel when the Detroit list is finalized?

Kiley McDaniel: Different sorts of prospects (Nova more tools/variance, Wenceel more feel) but probably both 45s right now

Ash Ketchup: Can you rank some pitchers I’ve heard buzz about this winter? Jonathan Stiever (CHW), Joe Ryan (TBR), Joey Cantillo (SDP).

Kiley McDaniel: All arrow up guys from 2019. We haven’t done any of those teams yet but I’d guess we end up with Ryan, Cantillo then Stiever

Stan: also, what is your favorite nut milk?! 😉

Kiley McDaniel: unsweetened almond on a daily basis my man GTFOH with that sweetened stuff. let’s talk almond brands

Jabroni: How much is exit velocity factored into future value?

Kiley McDaniel: round up/down a grade in extreme situations

NY Expat: BP has said that they would put Gavin Lux just below the Wander Franco/Jo Adell top of their list, and slot him around #4.  Do you feel similarly?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure. If he isn’t there, he’s not far from it

Fangraphs Reader: Was there something from his pro debut that dropped James Nix from being an ‘others of note’ on the Astros list?

Kiley McDaniel: Has tools, just need to see more performance

Dave C: Is there an easy way to find your prospect lists from a few years ago? I couldn’t figure out how to see the Astros list from 2017 without resorting to google

Kiley McDaniel: I think that’s the best way, but luckily the titles of the lists are uniform each year so it shouldn’t be hard to find them

High school beatwriter: How do you identify pitches without tech/stat help?

Kiley McDaniel: just gotta go to games and watch it a bunch and it’ll become obvious. helps to have someone whispering in your ear to get you started, but for a lot of pitchers there’s three pitches in distinct velo areas so the velo alone tells you what the pitch was, no whispering required

Jason: What do I need to know about Erick Pena?

Kiley McDaniel: big upside, exciting tools

Chaise: Brennen Davis is inspiring hope among Cubs fans. Trending upward after last year but is his 2019 an indication that he has a much higher floor than originally anticipated due to the rawness?

Kiley McDaniel: I think that’s fair to see. We saw him as high variance and the performance has been in like the top 10% of outcomes on draft day

PNC mightier: Ben Cherington seemed to favor contact focused prospects in Boston. Would that make him more likely to move 20+% k rate prospects like Travis Swaggerty and Oneil Cruz to push a Pirates rebuild?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think those types of preferences hold for very long. It’s often driven by market inefficiencies or a couple key personnel and even those things change pretty quickly if you’re working with the same people

Edinson Soto: Who am I? 23 year old first time intl signee and there’s no public scouting reports

Kiley McDaniel: yeah there are https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-arizona-diamondbacks/

Trumbo No. 5: Are you in favor of allowing unrestricted draft pick trading (or at least in the first 10 rounds)? Do you think it could help shorten the time frames on tanking for teams at times if they could stack their picks on a single draft or two.

Kiley McDaniel: the strongest of agrees

zurzles: How excited should we be about Oscar Colas? Some tweets about him defecting generated a lot of hype but they conveniently left out that he hadn’t been playing at the top level in Japan

Kiley McDaniel: Even a season of stat in the top minor league in Japan is something, arguably more than part-timing in Cuba’s top league. He’s definitely a guy and we’re trying to get a better idea of where he fits with Pedro Leon and Norge Vera in the unsigned Cuban hierarchy

Johnnt5Alive: Can you explain the Oscar Colas situation? I thought he was old enough to be exempt from the J2 international signing bonus.  He’s 21? Why would he have to wait until teams get their new allotments to sign?

Kiley McDaniel: He is not exempt

TImo: I’m having a tough time differentiating between long term potential of some of the 50 FV pitchers Baz, Graterol, Howard. Since it seems they all have good FB’s with good velo, do any of them have secondary offerings that separate them from the rest from what you’ve seen or heard?

Kiley McDaniel: This is the sort of thing THE BOARD was made for. Go to last year’s end-of-season rankings and go to the scouting – pitching tab and this should give you what you need: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: and here if you want some stats included as well: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=&…

Soler Express: There’s been some chatter that Austin Martin has elite-level bat speed – given his size, you think he could get to plus game power?

Kiley McDaniel: More average to a hair above but I can’t rule out plus if he gets the super fun ball and a little more loft, because we’re told his 95+ EV rate is crazy high

Kiley McDaniel: but it’s currently about average raw, great hitability, great approach, flatter plane

Chi: Do the White Sox have specific issues limiting their ability with J2 signings? FO direction? Scouting? Lack of presence? Other?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure what you’re getting at? Luis Robert, Fernando Tatis Jr, Yolmer Sanchez, Micker Adolfo…it’s not like they aren’t spending money or signing 7 figure types

Byle Koddy: Can you explain how slider “raw spin” affects movement? Since sliders are obviously low spin efficiency pitches a lot of that raw spin probably gets nullified. A high spin slider like Chaz Roe probably moves super laterally without much depth correct? So would a high spin slider simply be a pitch that has two-plane movement with “late break?”

Kiley McDaniel: Basically, yeah. A low-spin-efficienct pitch (0-10%) will get more break with more raw spin, but obviously not as much a high-spin efficient pitch like a four-seam fastball. The huge breaking sliders you see are more slurves/curves with tilt.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Is it an overreaction to think that Cora should be banned from baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: I would say so, but I could see people making that case if he was proven to be the mastermind of the HOU and BOS sign stealing operations…which I think is pretty unlikely, but we don’t really know much about that at this point.

Brad: Hi Kiley – which player makes more sense for the Tigers – Torkleson or Austin Martin?  Do either of them have star potential?

Kiley McDaniel: The way I explained it to someone who asked me this in person recently is that Torkelson has been the same guy for 2 years and probably will be that same guy leading up to the draft, while Hancock (durability) and Martin (is he a 2B/CF or SS) will move up/down based on how Feb/March go.

Kiley McDaniel: So if Hancock/Martin both move south, then Tork is the best option. If they both move up, Tork is probably the 3rd best option.

Kiley McDaniel: which I understand that seems self evident, but if I were giving variance grades for today to draft day:

Hancock: High
Martin: Medium
Torkelson: Low

…and today they’re all pretty close, but we think Martin has a slight edge.

Kris: When J2 guys are graded as 50, 45, 40, 35+ here on Fangraphs.  Are those J2 FV grades equivalent talent wise to Rule 4 kids  same year at 55, 50, 45 & 40 with grade knock being age, proximity, etc??

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, we scale those to fit for minor leaguers, draft guys and J2 guys. When the summer amateur (draft/J2) grade doesn’t match the offseason minor league list grade, it’s because we have new information

Byle Koddy: Why is it that sinker/slider types with higher strikeout rates at lower MiLB levels sometimes see their K% regress? Just a result of the profile of their arsenal and better hitters who put bat on ball more?

Kiley McDaniel: In short, yes

PTBNL: What is one piece of advice you wish you had received before you started working in a front office?

Kiley McDaniel: Assume everyone has a selfish political agenda until proven otherwise

Kiley McDaniel: which probably goes for most corporate-y jobs as well

Stu: Good day from the UK!  I was wondering if Luis Robert’s propensity to striking out will prevent him from becoming a star.  Pip Pip Cheerio!

Kiley McDaniel: We seem more worried about this than most on the internet, but the teams we’ve spoken with, particularly office-y people, tend to agree with us. Still plenty of room for disagreement, though.

David: Thoughts on the Robert extension?  Do you think he will shine in his first year in the majors or do you anticipate some hiccups initially?

Kiley McDaniel: He is the type of player (aggressive swinger, big tools) that typically takes a little longer to get settled in the big leagues than the opposite type of player (advanced plate discipline, decent hitting tools). Sometimes the Robert type is Ronald Acuna and the break-in period is obvious but short…but that’s really rare. Carlos Gomez was a slower path to success, Starling Marte got there quick; both were generally similar types.

Nate: Is there any chance Brady House does what you mentioned in his write up and classify to the 2020 class?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard any rumors to that end, but he makes as much sense as Bitsko did

Kiley McDaniel: well, maybe a little less since House isn’t young for the 2021 class, but both were at ECP (heavily scouted summer event) as underclassmen and showed well. Tre Fletcher was at that event two summers ago and he reclassified just before the spring.

Safety Stegosaurus: What does your scouting sense say about Anthony Edwards?

Kiley McDaniel: (UGA guard that may go #1 overall in the NBA draft) Explosive, exciting, not super polished on the perimeter, but kinda Zion-ish in profile

Will: WHO’S POE

Kiley McDaniel: that’s my girlfriend’s pupper

Philip: Maxey>Edwards

Kiley McDaniel: (Maxey is the top prospect for UK) he was definitely more polished and NBA ready last night. I could tell both guys were up for the matchup and TV and the sold out crowd, then everyone noticed Trae Young was sitting courtside and it went up a notch

Guest: Thoughts about the new IF OAA stat?

Kiley McDaniel: Passes the smell test and the process stuff all seems to check out. Would prefer home to first times rather than sprint speed as the metric to adjust for speed of the runner

sportz: how soon until every minor league park is equipped with technology that allows us to see data similar to what is disseminated on MLB players

Kiley McDaniel: I’m guessing 5-7 years? It’s not clear yet

Arnold: Could you provide a comp to Jairo Solis in terms of stuff (let’s assume he returns to pre-injury form)?

Kiley McDaniel: It could be three 60’s if it all comes back and he continues progressing

Dee Arby: I topped out at 72 MPH @ the ballpark speed pitch but I can paint corners.  If I were to start a DSL game, how many runs would be scored against me before I get out of the 1st inning?

Kiley McDaniel: I give you a 30% chance of getting out of the first inning. Could luck into some hard hit outs and benefit from being slower than their bat speed.

Butter chicken: Is it legit (ethical, legal) for teams to approach future draft prospects with hypothetical offers?   (E.g., “If you are there at 8, we want to take you there at 1k below slot.  Would you do that?”)

Kiley McDaniel: Against the rules but every team does it, at basically every pick

I am the Walrus: What’s your take on pitching prospect Rutledge?

Kiley McDaniel: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-21-prospects-washington-nationals/

Jabroni: round up/down a grade in extreme situations:
Can you explain what velocities are extreme situations?

Kiley McDaniel: You can map that stuff to the 20-80 scale, in a way that I think would be clear from the sliders on the player pages at baseball savant. we think a guy has 45/50 raw power and his in-game EVs are 60s in Low-A. That guy gets moved up. Corbin Carroll was something like that and there have been others, but he’s the one that comes to mind.

I am the Walrus: Lots of logic to Braves/Bryant and pitching prospects. What do you think it would take?  Anderson/Toissant/Wright?  Maybe one of them with a CF prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably two of them and a lower guy or two

brad: Kiley, if Acuna is the next trout, and soto is the next acuna, and adell is the next soto, is Espinal the next adell?

Kiley McDaniel: Well the fact that I’m not sure who Espinal is makes it not super likely

Ken Giles Right Hook: What goes into a hit tool grade? Is plate approach, barreling the ball, launch angle, FB rate all a part of that?

Kiley McDaniel: We tend to break it down (and explicitly on the tools tab) as bat control, pitch selection and power. that probably covers like 90% of it? The rest is some version of in-game hitability instincts

matthew: interesting note, In one of my OOTP saves Bitsko is my team’s starting 3rd baseman and is a 3-4 WAR player and ~6 year mlb veteran. He has pitching capability but is better at hitting for my team. Was there ever any thought of him as a hitting prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Like nowhere near his pitching ability, but his swing is okay

swansby danson: is bryce ball getting a mention in your upcoming ATL prospect list?

Kiley McDaniel: yep, somewhere on there

SpicyBoy: Is Josh Lowe getting top 100 consideration?

Kiley McDaniel: he’s in that range

Theo is as Theo does: Any Yohendrick Pinango love yet?

Kiley McDaniel: i already love the name

Brooklyngail: Would you include Pache or Waters in a deal for Bryant?

Kiley McDaniel: nope

MB: I saw a prospect list a couple months ago that was really down on George Valera’s defense (they thought he’d end up below average in a corner). I didn’t recall anyone else being this pessimistic about it, will there be an update on his likely future position this winter?

Kiley McDaniel: eric’s looks in pro ball have been better than we expected on defense

Theo is as Theo does: Ed Howard or Cristian Hernandez IFA?

Kiley McDaniel: Reasonably close, lean Howard

976: Have corporate job.  Can confirm.

Jake: Odds Max Meyer ends up in the bullpen long term?

Kiley McDaniel: 65%

tom: kiley is off the market???

Kiley McDaniel: he is

Wadz: Any clarifications of a power rankings for 2020 J2?

Kiley McDaniel: prospect week!

House guest: Call her your lady friend.  It’s more sophisticated for an Int’l man of Leisure.

Kiley McDaniel: she actually has done that before but it didn’t seem earnest

Jeb: What is Apple Man’s selfish political agenda

Kiley McDaniel: trying to get me to buy a new phone

Kiley McDaniel: NOT TODAY SATAN

odapm: does the glut of WAS recent INF signings signal anything to you in terms of WAS’s outlook on kieboom?

Kiley McDaniel: yep, they don’t seem to want him there in april unless he blows them away and gives them no choice

Mr. Fister: Higher upside…Grayson Rodriguez or Emerson Hancock?

Kiley McDaniel: Hancock has three pluses and above command at his best. I don’t think people realize he could be an ace. Didn’t pitch this summer and not even the whole spring, so hasn’t been seen widely yet

Kiley McDaniel: I live an hour away and didn’t even see him last spring since the matchups didn’t line up and when i made a point to go see him, he was on the shelf

Nate: To piggyback on your comment about working in baseball front offices…I know a lot was made about how treacherous a lot of people feel like it is working in the Astros front office. And it wouldn’t shock me (or probably anyone) to learn it is abnormally so. But do you really think that’s that uncommon across the board? Seems like as you said as well…most corporate level jobs aren’t really disimilar in this regard either

Kiley McDaniel: we hear about a handful of teams that are worse than normal, but i think most of them are pretty standard corporate stuff

Kevin: Any thoughts on Keith Law moving to the Athletic?

Kiley McDaniel: happy for him!

Draftnik: When will you and/or Eric next write on the 2020 draft? Other than the (totally awesome) THE BOARD

Kiley McDaniel: that’s getting updated almost daily and there will be some formal draft stuff for prospect week

odapm: why is it that guys sign ‘underslot’? doesn’t the slot amount give them enough leverage to demand that amount?

Kiley McDaniel: yes, that’s a big factor in the negotiation, so taking less is usually due to less leverage in that specific situation, due to being overdrafted, etc.

brad: Jeferson Espinal, OF Arizona

Kiley McDaniel: yeah I mean that was the leading candidate but that was a pretty absurd statement

Sean: Are you the California boy of MLB prospect writers?

Kiley McDaniel: Never lived there but sometimes it feels like I should’ve?

Duder: Could you see the Red Sox moving Sale this summer?

Kiley McDaniel: nope, that deal is pretty rich

Mailer Daemon: Is it more difficult to evaluate players such as Nick Gonzales, or, to go back a bit further, DJ Peterson, who play in extreme offense environments in college? Are road performances weighted more heavily for such players?

Kiley McDaniel: yes it’s hard and no, taking half of their stats doesn’t make it any easier

Bummer Boi: I’m sad about stuff :,(

Kiley McDaniel: you’ve been booted

Desperate Times: I hereby call for Desperate Measures!

Slow clap: CHAT! CHAT! CHAT! CHAT CHAT CHATCHATCHATCHATCHAT

SpicyBoy: will i ever find someone who loves me

Ken Giles Right Hook: Gun to your head – M,F,K. Torkelson, Vaughn, Evan White

Gru: A MAN HAS FALLEN INTO THE RIVER IN LEGO CITY

START THE RESCUE HELICOPTER

HEY!
BUILD THE HELICOPTER AND OFF TO THE RESCUE

PREPARE THE LIFELINE, LOWER THE STRETCHER AND MAKE THE RESCUE

THE NEW EMERGENCY COLLECTION FROM LEGO CITY

Juan Soto: JUAN. SOTO.

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: well that was quite the finish

Kiley McDaniel: see you guys next week