Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/18/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, Scout is eating lunch and I have a bunch of errands to run once we finish up here

Kiley McDaniel: Twins list came out this week: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-43-prospects-minnesota-twins/

Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote up the scouting reports of Rule 5 guys: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/

Kiley McDaniel: Dan did the projections end of the Rule 5: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/projecting-the-eleven-players-…

Kiley McDaniel: Nats list is done and will be up tomorrow

Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I broke a little news about the data wars on the amateur side: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-outlaws-amateur-trackman-data-exclusiv…

Kiley McDaniel: and as a little exclusive for the chat crowd, we just updated the 2021 draft rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?s…

Kiley McDaniel: 2020 is basically done and 2022 will get an update shortly

Kiley McDaniel: and lastly, we have a book coming in April, more here:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Proud to announce that @longenhagen and I wrote a book: FUTURE VALUE, coming in April 2020.

We explore the tension between analytics and scouting along w/the state of the art & old school ways teams find superstars.

Preorder now triumphbooks.com/FutureValue for 20% off w/code FV20

22 Nov 2019

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

intl bonus money: which of these int’l signees do you see as the better big leaguer long term? Bayron Lora or Erick Pena

Kiley McDaniel: until we finish all the team lists, I’d normally point you to the J2 rankings here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-international/summa…

Kiley McDaniel: which had Pena one spot ahead of Lora and I think that still stands

Kiley McDaniel: however, there have been a few 2019 J2 guys that post instructs have outperformed that amateur ranking a good bit, which is something that will happen when these kids get locked down 18-24 months in advance, so they improve and only one team is watching

Kiley McDaniel: you can most easily sort those guys by doing an age <= 17 sort right now: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa…

Kiley McDaniel: but eventually we’ll have filters for signing data

Kiley McDaniel: and the Nationals have 2 kids from the 2019 J2 class that made solid jumps for their list

ADLEY. RUTSCHMAN.: Good day, Kiley! If you were building an OF from prospects, who would you prefer as the key player: Brennen Davis, or Monte Harrison? Merci!

Kiley McDaniel: We’re doing top 100 stuff now and these two are in the same range. I’ll lean Davis for now

Laser Schoop: Do the Mariners have an ace/No. 2 caliber starter in their system right now? Logan Gilbert is the highest FV and seems sharpest so far but he’s still outside the Top-50.

Kiley McDaniel: Gilbert is their best one right now. His stuff is back to Cape levels, when he looked like a top 5-10 overall pick, so #2 starter is on the table, yes

Jim Leyland Palmer: Joey Wentz had a nice (albeit brief) stint in Detroit’s system in 2019. Where are you at with him? I’ve seen everything from #3 to bullpen arm. Is back of the rotation (#4-#5) most likely outcome?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, that’s about what we have. He’s shown plus stuff at times, but that’s now been awhile, so we’ll say depth starter type

Mike: In Eric’s Rule 5 write-up, he wrote this about the Tigers/Rony Garcia… “The changeup needs to get better if Garcia is going to continue to start, but Detroit is becoming quite good at implementing coherent pitch design.” Could you explain what he means by that, and possibly give some examples? I haven’t really seen that before and was curious.

Kiley McDaniel: Meaning the tech-enabled process of tweaking pitches to give a well-rounded repertoire, like tweaking a grip to get more movement on a pitch, or movement that complements/tunnels with another pitch. They’ve done this with Mize, separating his cutter/slider/curveball more than he had in college.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve seen DET using more high speed cameras in scouting and PD, which, along with TrackMan and Rapsodo, are the main tools for doing this

Jimmy Boy: Value wise, what does a return for Lindor look like?

Kiley McDaniel: If you’re doing a 1-for-1 deal, everyone below a 70 FV should be an equal trade, but I think we’ve seen most teams take those top 10-15 overall prospects off the table unless it’s a push-all-the-chips in type move like Gleyber/Eloy from CHC or Moncada/Kopech from BOS

Kiley McDaniel: I’m running down our list and about a dozen guys look like they’d be in the non-negotiable range

Kiley McDaniel: So then it’s a choice between unproven young MLB types, closer-to-MLB prospects and far-off prospects and how many guys you want to spread it across. CLE is the type of team that would prefer to diversify, so I’ll guess something like a 25-50th overall type prospect and a couple late/fringe top 100 types, skewed toward the upper levels.

Julio Rodriguez: What prospect rank should I expect to fall in when the updated ranks are out – top-5, top-10, top-20, top-50, or top-100?

Kiley McDaniel: We also talked about this yesterday in doing top 100 things. You’ll be higher than end of 2019 stuff

Justin: What even is a reasonable prospect return to expect in a potential Starling Marte deal?  Maybe a 50 FV plus a 45 FV?

Kiley McDaniel: maybe a little less than that. I’m thinking a lower 50 and a couple 40s?

DBRuns: As an Indians fan, the return for Kluber looks super light. What’s your take on the deal? 70 cents on the dollar? I guess it all depends on how high you evaluate Clase, and the degree to which you expect Kluber to return to form.

Kiley McDaniel: Clase is a guy that may be a little underrated, since there’s clear relief ace upside and it’s 6 years of control. Kluber also is probably a little overrated given his age, injuries and arm action. Still seemed light to me and, similar to the Brantley non-QO offer seems motivated by payroll restrictions

Jim: Thanks for the prospect lists, they’re the best out there. Looking at the light Kluber trade and the Dodgers reluctance to deal Lux straight up for Lindor, would you agree that we’ve reached peak prospect porn? If most FOs overvalue prospect potential, is buying vets the new market inefficiency?

Kiley McDaniel: and WSH does it old school, trades all non-star prospects, signs FAs every year, tries to win every year and wins the World Series. Seems to be some clear value in zagging in this area. Basically, it seems like the abstract math in this area (Kluber has two years at a high-variance NPV while Clase has six, so even a low WAR projection makes it easy to balance the math) has now become the market-wide calculation

Kiley McDaniel: now you can only do what WSH is doing (or SFG used to do) with a big payroll and some core stars locked up and obviously it can end badly if you get a little overextended as SFG/KCR have shown. So it’s not like the Nats’ title invalidates the TBR/MIL more progressive model, but OAK is doing a hybrid between the two

Kiley McDaniel: This is something we get into in the book, but finding a unique spot on the matrix of styles is usually the best option, rather than having some super strong idealogical approach.

The NFL has shown us that a new guy with a good idea that hasn’t shown the second idea yet (Chip Kelly, Sean McVay) will always lose out to the guys with a creative approach to solving any problem over a long period (Andy Reid, John Harbaugh, Bill Belichick). The first group has the sexy, young, new, progressive label and the second group has the slightly more muddled they-seem-to-figure-it-out-shrug label and I’ll take the second one every time.

I think this applies to running baseball teams as well and I think there’s a whole lot of “let’s be progressive because smart people that are succeeding appear to be doing that” in baseball that I think will regress a bit when it fails. And with a number of GMs on the hot seat right now that broadly fit that description, that could be in the next 12 months.

Mrs. Yamamoto: In previous year’s write up it was mentioned that there are concern about Jordan Yamamoto’s lower than 90mph velo working in the majors. He’s pitched 78 innings of mlb ball last year with average fb velo of 91.3. Is that a spike or is his velo based concern lessened now and he’s better now. What prospect grade would you throw on him now?

Kiley McDaniel: Velo improved which is a good sign and he’s probably a 45 FV depth starter that we’d like to see how he adapts to the league adapting to him in 2020

WIll: Is it plausible (given that Donaldson signs elsewhere) that Bryant goes to the Braves in exchange for Max Fried and Ender Enciarte? Seems like this would be the type of haul the Cubs are looking for.

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think it’s universal, but there’s a compelling case that Fried could have more trade value than Bryant at some point in 2020.

5 years of Fried (1 minimum, 4 arb) of what looks like a mid-rotation guy (but sure, just one good year so far, TJ in the past)
vs.
2 years of Bryant (probably 2, but we’ll see)

I think Bryant has the edge now, but if Fried puts up another strong half-season and Bryant gets down to 1.5 years of control, I could see this flipping.

Also, I don’t see ATL cutting bait on one of the two SP (Soroka is the other) that emerged from their glut of young arms. Much more likely they trade two of the less proven ones than Fried.

Kiley McDaniel: Inciarte makes perfect sense for a Bryant trade, though. Probably matters what CHC is trying to do post-Bryant. If it’s a power rebuild, I think Inciarte plus some upper level pitching from the Anderson/Wright/Touki/Wilson etc group could make sense

Kiley McDaniel: ATL’s strength on the farm is upper minors depth, so this would eat into most of it but also get them a clear window and clear out the 40-man/AAA without blowing out the payroll with a mega deal

Dave: Is CJ Abrams the next Trea Turner?  60-hit, 50-power, 80 speed sure feels like Turner as a ballpark comp.

Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t look the same at all and we aren’t sure Abrams is a SS, but yeah those three tools are pretty similar

Jim Leyland Palmer: Larnach & Kirilloff flipped on your recent MIN list. Do you think think most of the league is with you guys on this shift or do most people still value Kirlloff’s perceived higher upside over Larnach’s more steady profile?

Kiley McDaniel: Now that Kirilloff is more 1B and the scorching performance slowed down a bit, Larnach’s impact power is a more compelling separator, although they should be close to each other on the top 100

Tom: Kiley, let’s say we do eventually get robot umps. Will we see more bat-first catchers stick? I am thinking about someone like Bo Naylor who has the bat and seems to be decent at holding runners, but the receiving is what dings him as a prospect. Thanks and happy holidays

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, Eric has been on this for awhile, usually mentioning the Alex Jackson type with a big arm, ok defense and big power

Peter Thomas: Padres are heavily counting on Gore and (to a lesser extent) Patiño to come up and be 4 win pitchers immediately. How should they be evaluating the chances of success?  Is it two coin-flips?

Kiley McDaniel: We did a new thing in last year’s top 100 with mostly empirical odds (we tweaked them a bit to match each player) of outcomes for top 100 prospects

Kiley McDaniel: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: so you can look at the Brendan McKay graph for a general idea on 60 FV pitchers

Kiley McDaniel: which is a 70% chance of a #4 starter or better

Kiley McDaniel: so depends what you consider success and when they hit that upside, etc. but this gives you an idea of their generic odds to be each FV tier when looking at their 6 years of control as a whole

Pip: Do you think Viandel Pena in the Nats system will move up to a 35+ or 40 FV this offseason?

Kiley McDaniel: Still a 35. Little dude without much tools, so will need to perform at higher levels to get on the list

Jim: Any projected tough bonus demand guys in the top 50 of the 2020 draft class, especially relative to your current ranking?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve heard chatter on Dylan Crews wanting top 10 money. Dax Fulton blew out and will be an overpay type with a Vandy commit. Those are the only two that come to mind at this point.

Eric: How excited should I be that the Twins hired Chris Mitchell? He used to do the katoh stuff for Fangraphs, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Correct! I will deputize you to be excited.

AG: Although it was very small sample low minors sample, Alek Manoah was dominant in 2019. Is it safe to say that he’s more advanced than advertised and that his stock is up?

Kiley McDaniel: Guys with a power fastball that can command a breaking ball are the types that dominate the lower levels, so this wasn’t surprising. No, 17 innings of stats doesn’t change his draft projections.

Ryan: How excited should Dbacks fans be about Liover Peguero? I’m sure that’s someone most fans have not heard about until recently. Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: A new 50 FV, read up on him here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-arizona-diamondbacks/

Sir Nerdlington: Will you write up your thoughts on the MiLB contraction proposal? I don’t get the ‘fauxnancial’ incentive. It’s a few bucks saved for 30 fewer chances at a prospect lottery ticket where a single win is worth $8M. It’s not like player evaluation is such an exact science that owners could guarantee none of those players won’t become useful.

Kiley McDaniel: I was talking to someone last night about how this doesn’t really make sense for MLB.  If they’re cutting costs by cutting teams/roster spots then using much of that savings to get the PR/moral win of paying the players more, then MLB is subsidizing the dream/indy league instead of subsidizing the current minor league system…what is being accomplished here? And Manfred’s public stance of bullying the minor leagues is eating up whatever PR goodwill he’d get from paying the players more.

Like, what is the end goal here? It seems to obviously be a negotiating tactic to leak an extreme plan and settle at the midpoint, but why be so unlikable in an area where PR matters and play the public villain just to save a couple million when you could easily make more money in a less public way on the MLB payroll economics end of things?

Jeff: Andrew Friedman walks into a bar. How much is he willing to pay for a drink?

Kiley McDaniel: no more than 6 years, $180 million

Jeff: As a Cubs fan, losing Faustino Carrera in the Rule 5 draft’s MiL portion really broke my heart. Talk me off a cliff

Kiley McDaniel: I think we’re getting in range

Bort: How fast can Michael Toglia make it to Colorado? Is a 2021 debut unreasonable?

Kiley McDaniel: later 2022 seems like a quick trip thru the minors

Brad: For prospects who are on The Board after you stop numbering them, does the order in which they appear mean anything? For instance, last summer’s update went to 106. After that, are guys more or less just lumped together by FV, or does the order they appear in on The Board indicate an actual ranking?

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s just the order they were in when you initially loaded it. They aren’t in order past the 50+ FV numerical order

Prospect Brah: Why are there not more Baseball Academies? Not just international but here in the US too? I think it would it be amazing to go to a private school sponsored by an MLB team where the focus was baseball with emphasis on leadership, finance, business etc.

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a number of them in Florida, with IMG being the best/most expensive. TNXL around Orlando is another one.

A bit of a buzzkill: Hey Kiley, word on the street is you’ve softened your stance on bummers lately, and you are now open to discussing all of baseball with them. Any truth here? Or just rumors?

Kiley McDaniel: Only Aaron Bummer is permitted to join the chat

Kiley McDaniel: and I may still bar him on principle

Twins list pt 2: no love for randy dobnak after posting a 2.90 FIP and a 52% GB rate?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 35

Jeff: Am I being too much of a hipster as a Cubs fan who likes Aramis Ademan at least as much as Nico Hoerner?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Joe: For someone who is looking to learn how to scout/evaluate talent, where do you recommend they start? Thanks, Kiley!

Kiley McDaniel: We have some “how to scout” type articles here on the site and the prospects home page is a good place to start. Not to be annoying book guy, but there’s three chapters that explain in detail how to literally scout players and then most of the other chapters are related to that process in some way

Kiley McDaniel: so if you can wait until April, that’s my best recommendation

Kiley McDaniel: I think those three chapters are like 40,000 words

Kiley McDaniel: which could be a good or bad thing, i suppose

RyRy: How closely are you following the Noah Song decision? Do you think he’ll be allowed to play? Do you think he should?

Kiley McDaniel: He should but it’s looking like he will have to wait 18-24 months

Jeff: How dangerous is it i if the owners get both a signing deadline and a salary cap? Will anything break the camel’s back when it comes to the uber rich’s utter domination?

Kiley McDaniel: I think the signing deadline for MLB FA’s is dead now that everyone signed quickly this year. That would’ve been an overreaction to a couple aberrant winters

ATL : When a prospect signs with Boras does that change how the team view the prospect in the long run?

Kiley McDaniel: For most teams, yes

Kiley McDaniel: in terms of odds he signs an extension or how to handle him in the draft

Kiley McDaniel: probably the only agent that he alone will change a team’s approach. most other agents will act how the player/family wants them to, but Boras kinda does a similar thing with all of his clients

Kiley McDaniel: and for as much as I’ve given him crap over the years, he has killed this offseason

Kiley McDaniel: you could argue other agents could get as much for those sorts of players, but I don’t think anyone is arguing they could’ve gotten more

Kiley McDaniel: and the timing of Strasburg just before Cole, Moustakas very early, etc. could’ve dropped in his lap, but were smart moves

Rockies Balboa: I want to trade Arenado to the Braves.  What can I get for him?

Kiley McDaniel: I continue to not understand the motivation for trading Arenado, so I can’t really tell you what Colorado would want

Logan: As you’ve sourced exit velo information in compiling this year’s lists, who have been the biggest movers (up and down) due to that information?

Kiley McDaniel: Corbin Carroll is a notable riser

DG: If you’re Bloom in BOS, what’s your move? Seems like it’s a tough-to-win spot… If you don’t sell the valuable parts you can now to compete, that’s a very uphill battle with NY and TB right now, but if you start talking selling more than 1 or 2 pieces and step back then that fan base eats you alive and ownership has one of the quickest triggers in the league

Kiley McDaniel: I mean it comes down to what ownership has mandated in terms of payroll and competitive levels. His task is to do as best he can with those constraints, we don’t know what they are and knowing them would change my opinion a lot.

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess it’s to get under the tax this year, then can go back in next year. There’s still a lot of ways to do that, but listening on Betts is essential.

Chris: For what it’s worth, I think the Nats can only pull off their old school strategy successfully because they also have great scouts.

Kiley McDaniel: Execution is the key to any point of view. The progressive clubs copying what teams were doing five years ago have a tough climb ahead similar to the scouting-oriented teams that don’t seem to have standout decision makers

Okra: Given what the Rays gave up for Nick Anderson and the Indians targeting Clase, should we more highly value the top 2-3 RP as prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: that’s the discussion Eric and I had last night

Kiley McDaniel: especially once they have MLB success

Chris: I don’t want to overreact based on one guy and one season at the Advanced Rookie level. But will what the Rockies got this year with Brenton Doyle cause more teams to look at D2 guys within the top 10 rounds?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean teams are copycats so maybe, but one player shouldn’t change that. There aren’t many D2 hitters than, in hindsight, should’ve been hitting in the middle of an SEC lineup. Find a couple more and then we can discuss if it’s a market inefficiency.

AG: Have you been able to get a good look at Jose Israel Garcia? Is he top 100 material?

Kiley McDaniel: I think so

Vincent Adultman: Do you know if the Yankees will miss out on a specific player in the 2020 J2 market because of the Cole signing?

Kiley McDaniel: They are not on a top-of-the-class level bonus in 2020, so I don’t think so

Kiley McDaniel: (we have them with two seven figure types)

Larry Legend: The Rays also gave up Nick Solak for hard throwing Peter Fairbanks.  Safe to say the Rays and Indians are highly valuing velocity.

Kiley McDaniel: well not velocity alone, but potential closers/relief aces with lots of control

Taylor: Do you know the muffin man?

Kiley McDaniel: that lives on mulberry lane?

Jeff: Have sports replaced religion as the American opiate for the masses? Both are big into kids!

Stevie: F, K, M: Richard Gallardo, Eric Pardinho, Osiel Rodriguez?

Jeff: What year will the pleb population realize that all the data collected and stored is leverage against them? Will that motivate anyone to stand? To fight?

Chris: Who says no

Kiley McDaniel: well that got weird fast

Reggaeton Horns: REGGAETON HORNS!

Stupid Meme: STUPID MEME!

M: I dreamt recently that you’d task me with some write-ups for the Rockies offseason list. I asked you who we were listing #1, and you named a 6’7” pitcher I’d never heard of. That’s all. Matt Damon or whatever.

Kiley McDaniel: a subdued end to today’s chat. see you people in two weeks because i’m definitely not chatting with you on christmas, ya filthy animals