Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Wright (114.0 IP, 103 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (95.1 IP, 77 xFIP-)
Steven Wright and Michael Pineda are the same and also different. Like, for example, they possess probably 95% or 98% or whatever of the same genetic material. Because humans possess mostly the same genetic material. So, basically the same. But also, one of them’s a giant person from the Dominican, while the other is a more traditionally sized person from Torrance. So, rather different.

Here’s another manner in which they’re the same: they’ve both produced ERA numbers so far this season that’re wildly different than what their fielding-independent marks would otherwise suggest. But here’s also how they’re different: while Wright has very much outperformed his xFIP, Pineda has underperformed it.

Regard, by way of illustration, this table, which features the top-five qualified pitchers by absolute difference between xFIP- and ERA-:

It’s very likely that the appearnce of both pitchers here is more than a product of randomness. Wright, a knuckleballer, is almost certain to outperform his fielding-independent numbers. And as for Pineda, the opposite has been a trend, as well. Enough of a trend that one ought to regard it as a reflection of his “true talent”? Sure. Not to this degree. But sure.

This, in conclusion, has represented an attempt to identify a narrative where none was readily apparent.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 13:10 ET
Gonzalez (97.2 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Matz (89.0 IP, 80 xFIP-)
If it feels as though the Nationals and Mets have already played 1,000 games this season, then that’s strange, because they’ve actually played each other only 12 times so far — a figure which is almost 1,000 fewer than 1,000. If it really does feel that way to you, though, it’s possible that you experience time in a markedly different manner than other humans — such as one of Oliver Sacks’ patients, Hester, whom he discusses in an essay called Speed in a 2004 issue of the New Yorker.

From that piece:

Hester, too, seemed unaware of the degree to which her personal time diverged from clock time. I once asked my students to play ball with her, and they found it impossible to catch her lightning-quick throws. Hester returned the ball so rapidly that their hands, still outstretched from the throw, might be hit smartly by the returning ball. “You see how quick she is,” I said. “Don’t underestimate her — you’d better be ready.” But they could not be ready, since their best reaction times approached a seventh of a second, whereas Hester’s was scarcely more than a tenth of a second.

Fascinating or terrible? This is a question no one has to answer.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at Los Angeles NL | 19:15 ET
Perdomo (59.0 IP, 97 xFIP-) vs. McCarthy (5.0 IP, 30 xFIP-)
Among the other things its designed to do, the algorithm which informs the NERD pitching scores is designed to look favorably upon those pitchers who have been maligned by fortune — or, at the very least, who appear to have been maligned by fortune. In practice, this is accomplished by fashioning a bonus for those pitchers who’ve underperformed their fielding-independent numbers. It’s calculated by subtracting a pitcher’s xFIP- from his ERA- and dividing the result by 20 (and then capping the final outcome at a maximum of 1.0 extra points lest things become absurd).

Luis Perdomo, for his part — and in addition to recording markedly above-average velocity and swinging-strike numbers — has produced a 97 xFIP- and a 201 ERA-, giving one the impression that he has very possibly been maligned by fortune. “You idiot,” a reader is inclined to say. “Have you considered that he’s maybe one of those pitchers who allows hard contact?” Perhaps he is. The data indicate, however, that he’s allowed an average exit velocity of 90.0 mph — or, almost the exact figure conceded by Hector Santiago, famous across all lands for outperforming his fielding-independent numbers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Strasburg (99.2 IP, 73 xFIP-) vs. Syndergaard (101.0 IP, 57 xFIP-)
The author is quoting himself and plagiarizing others when he states that, at its best, sport acts as a medium by which one can observe people working at the outer margins of human potential. Tonight’s encounter between Stephen Strasburg and Noah Syndergaard represents the apogee of this virtue in sport — provided that’s how one uses the word apogee. Stephen Strasburg throws hard and features excellent command. Noah Syndergaard throws hard and features excellent command. Observing the pair, the spectator has the opportunity to be transformed — or, at the very least, to be diverted temporarily from this cavalcade of horrors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at St. Louis | 13:45 ET
Glasnow (MLB debut) vs. Wainwright (103.1 IP, 101 xFIP-)
This afternoon and evening features numerous pitching appearances of note: Lucas Giolito‘s second career start, Hyun-Jin Ryu’s first major-league appearance since 2014, and the league’s hardest-throwing left-handed starters in Kansas City. Still, it’s the debut of Pittsburgh’s Tyler Glasnow, a top-10 prospect by most accounts, which likely merits the greatest attention. As a result, the author has assessed a score of 16 to Glasnow, so as to render the Pirates-Cardinals game today’s most highly rated. This is a rhetorical act known not as deus ex machina, but rather stultus ex machina — which is to say, “idiot from the machine.”

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Baltimore at Los Angeles NL | 15:10 ET
Gausman (81.2 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Norris (76.1 IP, 97 xFIP-)
If one takes for granted that ballplayers enjoy winning more than losing and prefer to qualify for the postseason rather than not to qualify for it, then one might also reasonably state that the recent trade between Los Angeles and Atlanta has improved right-hander Bud Norris’s professional life. On the day of that particular transaction (June 30th), Los Angeles possessed a 79.3% probability of qualifying for the postseason in some capacity; Atlanta, much closer to 0.0%. That represents an improvement of roughly 80 percentage points. How does this compare to other players? It seems the only other recent trade of note involved Fernando Rodney. He moved, on that same day, from San Diego (0.0%) to Miami (27.7%). Still an improvement, but roughly 50 points less of an improvement than the one experienced by Norris.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Houston | 20:10 ET
Walker (82.0 IP, 91 xFIP-) vs. Keuchel (107.0 IP, 84 xFIP-)
On Opening Day, Houston possessed a 68% probability of qualifying for the postseason in some form. Following a poor start, that figure had dropped to 18% by May 23rd. Now, after a much less poor interval, the Astros’ playoff odds are above 50% again. Is this like or not like Sisyphus rolling a boulder up a hill for all eternity?

The author will take his answer off the air.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston or Seattle Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Cleveland | 19:10 ET
Norris (11.0 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (93.1 IP, 87 xFIP-)
The deeply flawed game NERD scores created by the author are, by definition, flawed deeply. That said, they do include at least one element that isn’t entirely senseless — namely that, as the season wears on, they’re influenced more significantly by the team scores and less by the starting-pitcher scores. And the team scores themselves are influenced more significantly by postseason odds and less by performance-related factors. This is relevant today because (a) Cleveland currently possesses the league’s highest team score (tied with Baltimore) and (b) just over 50% of the season’s games have been played. It’s likely, in other words, that their games will be well-acquitted here for the time being. Which appears to have some sense to it: they’re a strong club in the thick of a division race. In conclusion, this has been a paragraph of no importance.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Los Angeles NL | 16:10 ET
Gray (76.1 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. McCarthy (Season Debut)
Brandon McCarthy produced excellent fielding-independent numbers during his first four starts for the Dodgers, creating considerable optimism for his fifth one. Today marks the occasion of that fifth start — nearly a year and a half removed from his most recent appearance. The reason for the delay? Not, as one probably assumes, a grant-funded sabbatical to perform research abroad. No, rather: a procedure to reconstruct his UCL and the laborious rehabilitation which follows it. He’s touched 93 mph during his rehab starts according to J.P. Hoornstra of Inside SoCal — which, that probably places his average fastball velocity at something a bit, but not significantly, lower than what he was exhibiting before the injury.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Philadelphia | 17:50 ET
Duffy (66.2 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Nola (91.0 IP, 73 xFIP-)
Rather than discussing the virtues of a Royals-Phillies game, the purpose of this brief passage is rather to address how and why and how a game featuring Jake Arrieta and Bartolo Colon isn’t more well acquitted by the haphazardly calculated NERD scores fashioned by the author. In the case of Colon, the explanation is simple: for better or worse, there’s no bonus in NERD allotted to players merely for the resemblance they bear to a modern Falstaff. Were such a thing to exist, the Mets right-hander would rocket to the top of the charts.

As for Arrieta, the reason for his (relatively) low mark probably appears more opaque. But regard: this is a new development. The Cubs right-hander rated as a 10 all the way through his last start of 2015. The Arrieta pitching this year is different than that Arrieta, however. He’s throwing less hard and throwing fewer strikes and is taking more time in between pitches.

Regard:

He’s still suppressing batted-ball production — which is what allows him to produce better run-prevention numbers than his fielding-independent marks might otherwise suggest. It’s possible — and becoming more probable all the time — that Arrieta possesses the requisite skills to beat his FIP. Accounting for that in a metric this frivolous, however, is both absurd and difficult. Absurd is acceptable; difficult, less so.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Philadelphia Radio.

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