NERD Game Scores for Friday, July 15, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Wright (114.0 IP, 103 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (95.1 IP, 77 xFIP-)
Steven Wright and Michael Pineda are the same and also different. Like, for example, they possess probably 95% or 98% or whatever of the same genetic material. Because humans possess mostly the same genetic material. So, basically the same. But also, one of them’s a giant person from the Dominican, while the other is a more traditionally sized person from Torrance. So, rather different.

Here’s another manner in which they’re the same: they’ve both produced ERA numbers so far this season that’re wildly different than what their fielding-independent marks would otherwise suggest. But here’s also how they’re different: while Wright has very much outperformed his xFIP, Pineda has underperformed it.

Regard, by way of illustration, this table, which features the top-five qualified pitchers by absolute difference between xFIP- and ERA-:

Absolute Value, xFIP- Minus ERA-
Name Team IP xFIP- ERA- Abs Diff
1 Michael Pineda Yankees 95.1 77 123 46
2 Colby Lewis Rangers 98.0 114 70 44
3 Steven Wright Red Sox 114.0 103 60 43
4 Aaron Nola Phillies 96.0 72 112 40
5 Marco Estrada Blue Jays 104.1 105 67 38
Among 96 qualified pitchers.

It’s very likely that the appearnce of both pitchers here is more than a product of randomness. Wright, a knuckleballer, is almost certain to outperform his fielding-independent numbers. And as for Pineda, the opposite has been a trend, as well. Enough of a trend that one ought to regard it as a reflection of his “true talent”? Sure. Not to this degree. But sure.

This, in conclusion, has represented an attempt to identify a narrative where none was readily apparent.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

Two Other Brief Notes
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features the same dumb teams mentioned above, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Broadcaster Rankings
Recently, the present author facilitated a crowdsourcing effort to reproduce the broadcaster rankings which appeared on this site roughly four years ago. The results from that effort are published here in one easily digestible post.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.

NERD Scores for July 15, 2016
Away SP TM GM TM SP Home Time
Martin Perez TEX 3 5 6 7 7 CHN Kyle Hendricks 14:20
Steven Wright BOS 8 8 7 4 10 NYA Michael Pineda 19:05
Bartolo Colon NYN 5 6 5 3 5 PHI Jeremy Hellickson 19:05
Francisco Liriano PIT 3 5 6 7 9 WAS Stephen Strasburg 19:05
Yovani Gallardo BAL 0 9 6 5 8 TB Chris Archer 19:10
Ian Kennedy KC 4 3 4 4 5 DET Justin Verlander 19:10
Matt Garza MIL 0 3 3 3 4 CIN Anthony DeSclafani 19:10
Jorge de la Rosa COL 2 3 3 2 4 ATL Lucas Harrell 19:35
Carlos Carrasco CLE 8 7 6 5 4 MIN Ervin Santana 20:10
Wei-Yin Chen MIA 5 6 6 6 5 STL Jaime Garcia 20:15
Bud Norris LAN 7 7 6 5 4 AZ Patrick Corbin 21:40
Miguel Gonzalez CHA 2 3 3 3 3 LAA Hector Santiago 22:05
Marcus Stroman TOR 8 7 6 3 7 OAK Daniel Mengden 22:05
Doug Fister HOU 3 7 6 4 10 SEA James Paxton 22:10
Madison Bumgarner SF 7 5 5 4 3 SD Andrew Cashner 22:40
SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of horrible author.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

3 Comments
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mikecws91member
7 years ago

I like to read these just for some of the ridiculous scores NERD assigns. Michael Pineda is a 10!

London Yank
7 years ago
Reply to  mikecws91

Pineda is legitimately one of the most interesting pitchers to watch. He either strikes people out or gives up home runs. How does a pitcher that generates so many swings and misses also give up so much hard contact?!

mikecws91member
7 years ago
Reply to  London Yank

A cursory looks shows he’s getting killed on his fastball. 29% line drive rate, WAY above previous marks, leading to a .358/.435/.662 triple-slash. He’s got the second-worst fastball value of any qualified pitcher (-1.9 RAA per 100 fastballs).