Astros Add Yulieski Gurriel to Suddenly Crowded Infield
Luis Valbuena has a 157 wRC+ since the beginning of June playing third base for the Houston Astros. Super-prospect Alex Bregman is beating down the door with his performance at Triple-A. Perfect fits be damned. Try and tell a contending club it’s got too many good players. They’ll find some room.
MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez just broke some news:
Source: INF Yulieski Gurriel agrees to 5-year, $47.5 million deal with #Astros #Cuba More on https://t.co/mkcBseoZWQ pic.twitter.com/6uj12AgGGL
— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) July 15, 2016
Let’s get brought up to speed. Gurriel (previously spelled Gourriel) is 32, and he’s been considered Cuba’s best baseball player for about a decade. He’s primarily played third base, and also kicked around at shortstop and, more recently, second base. In 15 years between Cuba and Japan, Gurriel hit .335/.417/.580 with 250 homers and 121 steals. In early February, Yulieski and his younger brother Lourdes Jr., 22, defected from the island. In June, Yulieski was declared a free agent, able to sign with any club free of international spending limits. He’d been linked to the Dodgers, of course. The Mets had shown some interest. The Angels seemed to make some sense. Now, he’s an Astro.
BaseballAmerica’s Ben Badler worked up a scouting report on Gurriel last April in which he called him a plus defender at third with quick reactions, athleticism, a 70-grade arm, and the occasional mental lapse. He’s a complete hitter who bats from the right side, able to hit for average and draw a walk, and scouts see good bat speed that should translate to plus power in the majors. At the time, Badler drew comps to Hanley Ramirez and David Wright, which don’t sound so great anymore, but remember this was before the beginning of the 2015 season; Ramirez was coming off a 135 wRC+ at third base with the Dodgers, Wright was still Wright. Brian Cartwright does good work translating international player’s stat lines to MLB equivalents, and he projected Gurriel for a .283/.330/.458 line back in February, good for a .340 wOBA. There’s no expectation that Gurriel won’t hit.
Five years for a 32-year-old is perhaps a bit scary, and it’s a little more than what Dave Cameron estimated he might get last month, but Gurriel makes the Astros better now. Or, more accurately, in three weeks or so, which is when FOXSports’ Ken Rosenthal reports he’ll be ready to join the club. The Astros plan to keep Gurriel at third base, which creates an interesting positional logjam in Houston.
Valbuena deserves to keep playing. A.J. Reed is still a super-prospect offensively at first, and then there’s Evan Gattis. The most likely scenario here seems to be Valbuena shifting to first, with Reed and Gattis creating a nice little platoon at designated hitter. But then there’s the Bregman situation. The most common line of thinking’s been that the Valbuena-to-first, Reed/Gattis DH platoon would have begun in a few weeks anyway, but not because of Gurriel taking over at third — because of Bregman taking over at third.
ESPN’s Keith Law recently ranked Bregman the top prospect in baseball in his midseason update. BaseballProspectus had Bregman fourth. He’s ready to contribute now, perhaps as ready as Gurriel. And with a five-year deal, Gurriel’s here to stay. Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve aren’t going anywhere, which suddenly forces us to ask the question: does Alex Bregman have a future in Houston?
It’s still very possible. Probable, even. Maybe Bregman stays in Triple-A for the remainder of the season, given full health in Houston’s infield, and next year the Astros shift Gurriel to first, opening up third for Bregman. Maybe Bregman begins getting reps in left field and shares the position with Colby Rasmus — though that happening this year seems somewhat unlikely not only because Bregman’s never played the outfield (though general manager Jeff Luhnow did recently suggest the possibility) but because bringing him up to play the small side of a platoon doesn’t seem to make much sense. It becomes more simple if the Astros have faith in Bregman as a left fielder despite his inexperience.
Or maybe the Astros now have the ability to dangle what Dave Cameron just ranked as baseball’s 37th-most valuable trade chip at the deadline. Rebuilding clubs would pay a fortune in current major league talent for the rights to Bregman’s future, and if the Astros really want to push in on this season, Gurriel’s presence at third base might suddenly allow them to do that. The Astros could probably use some more pitching to be taken seriously as a World Series contender, or even favorite, in the American League. Who knows, maybe the Rays might be more willing to take a phone call from a Houston area code about Chris Archer all of a sudden.
What we know for sure: the Houston Astros just acquired a premium talent near the trade deadline and they didn’t have to give up any talent of their own, present or future, to do so. Within the month, a Cuban legend will take over at the hot corner for Houston, and they figure they’ll immediately become a better team because of it. What we also know for sure: the Astros now have some very interesting flexibility on their hands. They don’t have to trade anyone — the Rangers have done just fine holding onto Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus — but Houston now possesses the possibility of dangling an elite young infield talent on the trade market without having to worry one bit about the short-term or long-term future of their own infield. What we know for less sure: what Houston’s actually going to do. Rest assured, they’ve got a plan in mind. Now we just wait to see what it is.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
Archer seems like a possible target, but what about Quintana as an alternative? He just came in at 50th on Dave’s trade-value list, so Bregman for Quintana would be somewhat comparable. Or are the White Sox still hoping to turn around their season in the second half?
That only makes sense if the White Sox commit to rebuilding. Pitching is not exactly their strong suit and Quintana will be affordable through 2020. Bregman helps the Sox but losing Quintana would offset a lot of the value Bregman brings.
If the White Sox want to sell folks like Robertson and Frazier will be on the block long before Quintana and Sale.
Awesome, somehow by taking one of the wild cards off of the market the Astros have actually *increased* the uncertainty surrounded the trade deadline.
And here I was an hour ago thinking to myself it’s going to be a slow couple of weeks…
I do think that, short of him coming up and dominating MLB (which, of course, he may not), Bregman’s value is about as high as it can get. Remember that this is a guy who was projected to have good but not great offensive numbers going into the season, so he’s running Way above expectations.
Could make the argument that selling now would be selling high.
So was Lindor…
Lindor was a totally different situation – he never put up dominant numbers in the minors, and was expected to have his defense carry him. He did not have the perception of being potentially dominant offensively that Bregman currently does
Well, for about 24 hours it sounded like Teheran was off the market, but maybe not after all…
It’s not happening. Alex Bregman will be staying in Houston unless Jose Quintana/Chris Sale are coming back, which is a pipe dream.
Baffling acquisition.
Why? They need hitting and their DH numbers stink.
Seems to me the guy who will see the biggest dent in playing time is Marwin Gonzalez. He was miscast as an almost everyday first baseman, I assume he’ll slip back into the super utility role but with fewer opportunities to slip into the lineup at a corner IF spot.
“What we know for sure: the Houston Astros just acquired a premium talent near the trade deadline and they didn’t have to give up any talent of their own, present or future, to do so.”
Minor quibble, but the wannabe economist in me has to point out that this statement isn’t quite true.
The Astros did not give up any currently-signed talent, yes. But even if we take this as a sign that they are willing to increase the payroll, we have to assume that there is a budget somewhere, and therefore a limit. Signing Gurriel means not signing (or re-signing) someone else down the road. Maybe it doesn’t sting like trading away a top prospect or promising young talent, but the opportunity cost isn’t that different in the long run.
I’m going to say the opportunity cost isn’t that significant, since Rasmus is playing on the QO this season and will come off the books. That’s $17M or so they won’t be paying next year. I think Valbuena is in his last contract year as well?
Uhm, what? That doesn’t change the opportunity cost of the Gurriel signing at all. Signing Gurriel means paying 47.5 million dollars to Gurriel that could’ve gone to someone else. That’s what the opportunity cost is. The fact that the Astros may also have some extra money to spend because of some expiring contracts does not change the opportunity cost at all, because Gurriel still cost 47.5 million dollars
This is 100% correct. Why is this getting downvoted? This signing still comes with an opportunity cost and giving up money may be just as bad or worse than giving up a top prospect
This is true, but only insofar as the budget becomes a limiting factor. For example, let’s suppose the Astros owners have set a private won’t-go-over line of $189 Million, which AFAIK is the current luxury tax threshold. Prior to signing Gurriel, their payroll was (per Cots) ~$97M. Suppose they didn’t sign Gurriel, and picked up every free agent they wanted this offseason, and ended up at $160 Million. Adding Gurriel to that would still keep them under their budget, so having him on the payroll or not — in this scenario — in no way limits the front office in acquiring other talent, and so can’t be considered that sort of opportunity cost.
Of course, we don’t know what hard budget limits the Astros’ front office is operating under: perhaps it is $120M and Gurriel just ate up every bit of it. But because we just don’t know, we can’t say whether Gurriel represents a real opportunity cost in terms of budget. But we do know there’s a hard roster limit of 25 players on the big league team, and in practice only a handful of them can be infielders. That’s a much tighter budget, and the fact that it keeps a bright prospect from contributing, or otherwise reduces playing time of above-average players, may be a much greater cost in terms of wins-and-losses.
It’s not an opportunity cost if Gurriel can be traded, just like signing Trout for $140M wasn’t an opportunity cost for the Angels. In fact extending years of control over Trout at an attractive price actually creates an Opportunity Asset (trademark: ReggieThomasLive, contact for T-Shirt licensing rates).
If Houston outbid everyone for Gurriel, then likely at the moment they may have to eat a small part of his deal to move him, that’s a tiny opportunity cost. But if he performs as expected when he plays, he’s likely an asset.
The fungibility of players through the trade market is exactly why paying money for Gurriel isn’t that different than trading a prospect for him. Both the contract (in actual dollars) and the rights (in estimated dollars) have a certain value.
If we’re willing to say that a team “gives up talent” when they trade a prospect to get a player in return, then it’s no different when a team gives up money to sign a player. Same thing.
If you trade a prospect to get two similar prospects, you didn’t pay an opportunity cost. You turned something worth X into something worth 2X. The only way that is becomes an opportunity cost is if you could have traded X to Dave Stewart for 3X.
If you sign a contract to pay a player less than he’s worth, again you didn’t pay an opportunity cost, you paid $X to get > $X in value. If you need the cash, you can always trade him and get excess value back.
Acquiring Gurriel doesn’t cost the Astros a prospect or any significant opportunity. Assuming they overpaid, if they decided today they need $48M more to spend to acquire a different player, they can package Gurriel with a few million in cash and ship him to any of a dozen teams. So the opportunity cost isn’t the $48M, it’s the difference between it and what his real value is, and at the moment that can’t be too great. Dave Stewart gave the awful cuban play Yasmany Tomas $20M more, so he’d probably take Gurriels contract and trade his #1 pick for the privilege.
And when Gurriel makes a few starts in a game, Houston can flip him to any of a dozen teams for some types of prospects, because the more he shows he can play in the MLB the less risky player he becomes. His contract is likely to have a plus positive value very soon if it doesn’t already. This is one of the best Cuban players ever on a very reasonable contract.
I disagree — any time that you make a contractual commitment to one player to the exclusion of other players (whether it is a free agent signing, a trade, or a draft selection), you pay an opportunity cost, to whatever degree that decision prevents you from rostering those other players.
When you trade a prospect for another prospect, it doesn’t matter if you believe that you got the better end of the bargain — the opportunity cost remains. You no longer own the rights to the player you traded away; that’s a lost opportunity. You could reacquire him, but again, that transaction will come with some kind of opportunity cost.
To bring this full circle, my original quibble was with the idea that signing Gurriel didn’t involve giving up any current or future talent. The Astros absolutely did give up future talent — the player or players they would have signed with those same dollars. The fact that players are fungible (that is, that Gurriel can be turned back into dollars or into another player) doesn’t change that.
This fungibilty of players is the critical point here. We know that teams can turn money into players and players into money. Therefore, in principle* there is no difference between buying a player with money directly or buying a player with a prospect that is valued at a certain amount of money.
*In practice, of course, these various transactions may be more or less efficient, and that’s what front offices are for — to find the most efficient way to amass talent and build a roster.
Slightly off topic… haven’t the Rangers succeeded seemingly in spite of Profar, Odor, and Andrus? Profar with an offense declining each month held up only by an unsustainable BABiP. Odor ‘has deteriorated’. Andrus has negative defensive value, his previous and only skill set, attached to a nearly impossible contract to move.
Um, how about selling high on Valbuena…..?
I mean, the ideas floating of dealing Bregman might have some wow factor but make little sense when there are alternatives.
Gurriel and Bregman to the IF corners, Reed and Gattis to DH. Valbuena to be moved.
Heck, I’d even say that Valbuena prob makes more sense for the Jays than Jay Bruce does.
The presumption is addressing a need for Houston, by WAR their highest ranked SP is #35 in baseball. Flipping Bregman provides opportunity to bring in young cost controlled arm for the present and the future. The return for a 31yr old utility player having a career year on a one year contract….
Gurriel and Bregman aren’t special players at first base. Their value comes in part from being able to play a more challenging defensive position. That’s why this acquisition is so confusing.
Thats debatable right now looking at the production across the league at first base. But Bregman certainly isnt moving.
The issue is to make room for all the pieces in the lineup this year. Next year there will be openings with Gomez, Castro and Valbuena all in walk years I believe. Worrying about maximizing offense at 1B really isn’t going to determine how they juggle things around now. iow, they aren’t going to deal Bregman in order to keep Valbuena at 1B for the 2.5 months.
What do you think you’d actually get for Valbuena? He’s 30 with a long track record of mediocrity and is a free agent after the season. He’s not bringing back anything of value.
He’s actually maintained decent production for a few years now and has versatility, so you would get something for him, just not a lot. Maybe a middle reliever on a non-contender.
Agreed but it goes to the absurdity of “sell high” on players like this. Selling high means getting a 7th inning guy instead of a 6th inning guy.
Okay I’m definitely high right now but how about this? Houston trades Correa, Reed, and two high B prospects plus one or two lower level prospects (sorry don’t know their farm system that well) to the Angels for Trout.
Doc Ellis: throwing perfect games, making entertaining fake trades thanks to LSD.
It does kind of work though doesn’t it? Superstar for superstar but because it’s Trout, a little extra vig. Plus the Angels fan base wouldn’t revolt because Correa is a future star too. I think this is as much of a Win-Win for a Trout Trade as possible.
That’s why it’s entertaining! It totally works! And would make both fan bases lose their minds and lead to 8,000 articles defending/condemning the trade. Somehow, I feel like both teams would feel good about turning it down, even if both should probably do it.
Wow, I usually roll my eyes at message board trade ideas, but this one is simultaneously absurd and totally logical
The thing that works about it is that the Angels farm system is so empty, the B level prospects and even some of the low level prospects in that deal would be up with the Angels before too long. If one or two of them work out, Angels fans can look at them plus Correa and Reed as part of a nice rebuilding core. And with Weaver and Wilson off the books, they would have some payroll room to work with, even allowing for Pujols.
I like the idea!
I dunno, if you’re the Astros, do you trade Bregman fo anybody but Sale or Archer? I probably wouldn’t for Archer but would for Sale. Maybe put Gurriel at third, move Valbuena to 1st, and give Bregman the rest of the year to learn LF in AAA since Rasmus is gone after this season? I’m not thrilled about 5 years for a 32 year old, especially if it complicates matters as far as where you’re putting your top prospect.
It’s really 4.5 yrs.
And why are the ChiSox trading Sale? And especially when they have their own uber SS prospect and also have 3B covered.
Maybe the Bucs would consider flipping one of their big young arms in a swap or the Cards and Alex Reyes but those kinds of deals almost never happen. Whatever swap you can dream of that nets a big arm, it’s a big risk to Houston assuming the pitching side of it.
I doubt they are, but he IS a name that has come up as potentially being available. Really what I was getting at is that he’s the kind of pitcher they should be going after if they’re going to trade the guy who some consider to be the top prospect in minor league baseball.
The 5 years part isn’t so bad considering the amount. That’s basically the same money as 3x15M.
Yeah, that’s true, I didn’t really think of it that way
Gourriel needs a lot more time in the minors than Bregman does. Bregman is still expected to be up first, maybe in the next week. So it’s Gourriel they’ll need to make room for maybe a month from now. Will prob give them time to find a deal for Valbuena.
And we gloss over Colin Moran. Man, that guy has fallen (or has he?!?!).
I doubt the Astros trade Bregman because consensus top 5 prospects rarely ever get traded. But by signing a 3B to a five year contract they now have to move Bregman to the OF … and this would be a massive waste of Bregman’s value. I think you can make a good case that they are wasting some of Bregman’s value just by continuing to keep him in the minors at this point. Unless the Houston front office has something big up their sleeve this all makes no sense.
Valbuena to 1B is obvious, but that only fills one of two big lineup hole. Carlos Gomez has 0.0 fWAR and -0.4 bWAR. With 55 speed and no CF experience, it seems unlikely that Bregman would be a plus defender there, but the whole package would likely be above replacement level. Or maybe you trade him for McCutchen (if that fits payroll-rise) and a prospect; the Bucs move Marte back to CF and Bell back to the OF. (Yeah, I’m stealing the Correa for Trout idea.)
I dont think there is a discussion about Gurriel moving right now because they want the bat to be ready. They dont want him trying to learn 1b or LF right now. The Astros are certain to have a much different lineup in 2017. A lot of the fat is going to be gone. Rasmus isnt getting another QO, Valbuena is going to walk, Gomez is going to walk, Castro is going to walk.
I dont think a trade should happen at this point, but this could be the very reason we havent seen Bregman in the big leagues.
One thing the Astros can offer with Bregman is depth. They can also move Mccullers right now with Bregman. A Mccullers, Bregman, Martes, Abreu deal is going to get you Chris Sale.
Uh, if Sale was available. There’s a reason the Red Sox gave up a sweet lottery ticket for a guy like Drew Pomeranz. The White Sox aren’t rebuilding any time soon.
You also cant expect Gurriel to play much of this contract at 3b. His only down side appears to be the glove already. LF in Houston isnt very difficult and Gurriel has a plus plus arm. DH, some 3rd, 1b, LF.. banking on a 32 year old to play more than 2 seasons without becoming a liability is not the Astros FO norm.
Given Gurriel’s mechanics and bat path, I’ll be surprised if he makes it as an everyday player much less a top five MLB hitter as suggested in one of the links. Talent can overcome those issues at many levels but not against MLB pitching. Projecting payers to higher levels only works when the mechanics and path will be effective at the next level. While the video is limited with poor quality, I don’t see any other successful high contact hitters with that type of swing path/plane,
Maybe he wont be a top 5 hitter but he will be a good hitter. If the Astros didn’t think he would be an everyday player they wouldn’t have given him $40 million. He played half a season in the Nippon league and started hitting as soon as he started playing, there are plenty of high quality videos showing that. I think he will succeed because of his coverage of the strike zone and BB/Ks ratio.
Any idea on when he’ll be available for pickup in ESPN leagues?
Yulieski Gurriel is only two years younger than Yuniesky Betancourt.
I said this about a month ago as kind of a joke. but now i say it as it could actually work, say the astros fall the angels and offer Bregman+reed+ 8 minor leaguers of their choice for trout….. the angels may very well say no, but they would definitely consider it. on the other hand, the astros would have 1. Springer 2. Altuve 3. Trout 4. Correa 5. Gurriel 6. Rasmus/Gomez 7. Valbuena 8. Gattis 9. Castro.. but trading for pitching makes more sense, that would just be a heck of an offense to watch
No, they wouldn’t consider it.
Love to dream like this, but that’s not enough for Trouty. Plus the Astros probably don’t want that contract. But wouldn’t that be something to behold?
Houston endured some rough times a few years ago, but damn if they didn’t develop a formidable young offense quickly. I’m a Royals fan, and I’m completely jealous.
Could this be the way for the Astros to get the inside track on signing Lourdes Jr?
Hey guys! What are some sites that rank prospects that you trust their rankings? Needs to have been updated at least for all of the offseason trades, midseason update is plus points. I’m working on a project, essentially a built-at-home composite prospect ratings for the Atlanta Braves. Some sites had guys I had never heard of, and I noticed it was hard to keep track of a consensus, so I’m doing it numerically. I’ve got about 6 sites, who have rated between 10-50 prospects (I tend to cut them short at around 35 just because my math is oversimplified). What sites would you recommend? If you’ve done this before, any pointers? Thanks friends!