Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET
Perez (43.2 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Richards (161.0 IP, 94 xFIP-)
While human efforts to predict baseball have been dismissed by scientists — scientists dressed in real lab coats, surrounded by beakers of roiling and unnamed chemicals — have been dismissed as an exercise in futility, the attempt to project baseball has at least some foundation in actual mathematics. The sort of projections available at FanGraphs suggested in April, May, June, July, and August — suggested in all those months that a future in which the Texas Rangers’ qualified for the 2015 postseason was an improbable one. As of today, however, it’s decidedly less improbable.

Regard, the club’s various odds on the fourth of each month, up to and including the fourth of September:

Rangers’ Postseason Odds on Fourth of Each Month

Date	Division	Wild Card	Playoffs	Div Series
4/4	0.8%	2.3%	3.1%	1.8%
5/4	0.4%	0.5%	0.9%	0.6%
6/4	3.7%	6.1%	9.8%	6.6%
7/4	2.9%	5.8%	8.7%	5.7%
8/4	3.4%	12.5%	15.9%	9.3%
9/4	20.1%	40.9%	60.9%	39.1%

Rocketed northward, is what those postseason odds have done metaphorically. Increased by over 50 percentage points, is what they’ve done literally. One, observing the Rangers, is observing a group of individuals whose actions have become surprisingly relevant — as surprising and relevant as the lyrics of a Jewel song immediately after having been dumped unexpectedly.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago AL at Minnesota | 13:10 ET
Samardzija (182.0 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Gibson (158.0 IP, 101 xFIP-)
Were one committed to consuming at least one Twins game this season — and had also failed to satisfy the terms of that agreement so far this year — then today represents probably the ideal occasion on which to do so. For one, the club continues to maintain a curious proximity to the last wild-card spot. For two, there’s the opportunity to definitely observe Byron Buxton (who’s playing center and batting ninth) and possibly) Miguel Sano (who strangely absent from the lineup despite having declared a terrible war on major-league pitchers). And finally, Target Field features one of the league’s top center-field cameras.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Minnesota Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Houston | 20:10 ET
Walker (153.0 IP, 93 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (154.0 IP, 94 xFIP-)
Baseball, in its current recognizable state, is roughly 150 years old — nor do the various earlier permutations of the sport appear to extend back much further than 1840. The Western sporting tradition, meanwhile, can be traced at least as far back as 776 BCE, i.e. the year of the first Olympic games. Broadly speaking, then, it’s not entirely inaccurate to suggest that baseball has existed for roughly 5% of all sporting history. As a sort of spiritual exercise, contemplate that figure while observing tonight’s game. Also contemplate, if you have time left over or whatever, the wonderful improbability of the Astros’ season.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Los Angeles NL | 18:10 ET
Bumgarner (175.2 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. Greinke (179.1 IP, 82 xFIP-)
This game — or, at least, the result of this game — doesn’t possess the sort of postseason implications that others of today’s do. The Blue Jays and Yankees, for example, remain separated by only 1.5 games in the AL East. The stakes for them, perpetually, are large — either playing in or bypassing the wild-card game. The Giants, meanwhile, currently feature somewhere in the vicinity of an 8% to 17% chance of reaching the divisional series, depending on the methodology one consults. They’re likely not to reach the postseason, it seems. Nor will a victory tonight — even against the division-leading Dodgers — alter that state of affairs greatly. A victory today would, however, create greater implications for tomorrow’s game. It would, in a sense, cultivate the possibility of something marvelous. This sort of possibility holds considerable appeal — if only because the human mind is poorly constructed to understand its improbability.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Salazar (144.1 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Price (182.1 IP, 84 xFIP-)
If one accepts the principle that the most compelling sort of baseball games — especially in late August or early September — are those which offer the greatest implications for the postseason, then one is likely to find him- or herself drawn either to the Blue Jays or Yankees for the time being, which clubs are separated by merely 1.5 games in the AL East. If one’s choices are dictated more strongly by another sort of principle, however, then it’s impossible to say which contest, if any, he or she might prefer. This is, of course, the damning reality facing any attempt to rate games based on their aesthetic appeal. “So why even bother attempting it?” one might ask. To which question I reply: “The awful inertia of any human endeavor.”

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Atlanta | 13:35 ET
Eovaldi (144.0 IP, 97 xFIP-) vs. Teheran (157.1 IP, 105 xFIP-)
Last Monday, Eno Sarris examined in these pages the development of right-hander Nathan Eovaldi’s splitter, a pitch that — following a disaster start at Miami in June — Eovaldi began to throw roughly 4 mph harder than previously but also with the same amount of drop. That same evening as Sarris’s post, Eovaldi proceeded to record a higher usage rate with the splitter than with his fastball (while also throwing that same fastball at an average velocity of 98-99 mph). The results: the highest single-game whiff rate of Eovaldi’s season and also 8.0 shutout innings. This afternoon’s game against Atlanta — facilitated by Atlanta’s excellent center-field camera — represents an opportunity to observe Eovaldi’s transformation.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
Severino (23.0 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Wisler (64.2 IP, 127 xFIP-)
When observing the New York Yankees, one is observing a club afflicted by uncertainty. When observing Luis Severino, meanwhile, one is observing a pitcher engorged by talent. It’s a sort of litmus test — with which, of the two, one finds him- or herself identifying. Only one choice is sane, however.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Boyd (30.2 IP, 126 xFIP-) vs. Dickey (167.0 IP, 122 xFIP-)
The current edition of this daily futile exercise features a bold and fresh amendment to the (now less) haphazardly derived algorithm utilized by the author to produce the NERD scores one finds below. Concerned reader John suggested a subtle but powerful revision to the calculation yesterday with a view to more accurately representing the state of those teams (like the Cubs) who, while technically featuring roughly a 50% probability of reaching the divisional series, aren’t actually competing in particularly high-leverage games at the moment (because they’ve basically clinched a wild-card spot but have no real chance of winning their division). The results of that suggestion appear below. Note the Cubs’ score, for instance, which drops from 10 to 5 as a result of the alteration. The Blue Jays and Yankees feature the league’s highest team scores, meanwhile, on account how their seasons are currently riddled with uncertainty.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit or Toronto Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at San Francisco | 15:45 ET
Haren (148.1 IP, 119 xFIP-) vs. Bumgarner (169.2 IP, 78 xFIP-)
Within the haphazardly derived algorithm used to calculated NERD team scores, the expression intended to represent the “urgency” or perhaps “leverage” of a club’s season — the expression relies on that same club’s divisional-series playoff odds. The closer those odds are to 50% — thereby suggesting greater uncertainty regarding the outcome of their season — the higher the NERD score for the relevant team.

As multiple concerned readers have noted, however, the method isn’t perfect. The Chicago Cubs, for example, possess almost precisely a 50% chance of qualifying for the divisional series at the moment. What they also possess, though, is basically zero probability of winning their division. The Cubs have, essentially, clinched a wild-card spot at this point — and, as such, it’s probably fair to say that their odds of reaching the divisional series (again, at 50%) aren’t reflective of great urgency. Unfortunately, to improve the algorithm at this point would require a close working relationship with tedium, a state which — not unlike polio or carpeting — ought to be eradicated posthaste.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Almost All of Them.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at New York AL | 13:05 ET
McHugh (159.0 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Pineda (118.0 IP, 71 xFIP-)
On the edition of FanGraphs Audio released this actual morning, the author mentioned that a friend of his — the sort of friend, specifically, who’s had two children over the last four years and whose relationship with the Pastime has suffered duly — would be attending today’s Astros-Yankees game. What follows is a brief collection of statements designed to provide context for a spectator of that same contest who also has no idea what’s going on.

• Both the Astros and Yankees currently possess better than a 50% chance of reaching the divisional series.
• New York’s success has been facilitated in no small part by the unexpectedly robust contributions of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira.
• Houston’s success, meanwhile, has been facilitated largely by players who are 25 and under.
• Yes, seriously, the Astros.
• By multiple standards, Houston and New York both possess among the top bullpens in the league, if that’s interesting at all.
• Probably avoid staring directly into Carlos Correa’s extraordinary talent.
• You might never return.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television.

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