Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Chicago NL | 20:05 ET
Bauer (74.0, 107 xFIP-) vs. Arrieta (77.0 IP, 69 xFIP-)
Chicago and Cleveland, between them, have debuted four noteworthy young players this season — of which three are famous and one is less famous. Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Francisco Lindor were ranked 1st, 3rd, and 14th, respectively, among all prospects by Kiley McDaniel this offseason. The former two have produced roughly four wins in roughly 400 plate appearances for the Cubs; Lindor, for his part, recorded his first major-league appearance this past weekend. Omitted from McDaniel’s preseason top-200 list (as well as every other preseason-type of list), but noteworthy nonetheless, is third baseman Giovanny Urshela. The 23-year-old Urshela lacks the tools of the three aforementioned players, but has exhibited average power and above-average contact skills as a minor leaguer — in addition to possessing a strong defensive reputation. He’s probably not the reason one ought to watch this game between the Cubs and Indians tonight. That said, in the event that one is consuming this game among a crowd of friends or even awkward acquaintances, one is now equipped to bore his companions with certain passing comments about Giovanny Urshela.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Houston | 14:10 ET
Elias (58.0 IP, 108 xFIP-) vs. McCullers (31.0 IP, 71 xFIP-)
While the major-league debuts of Byron Buxton and Francisco Lindor are entirely notable, it’s also true that watching an entire game merely to the end of observing a single position player ultimately provides a poor return on one’s leisure investment. Consider: a single batter records, on average, only four or five plate appearances per game. Defensively, a shortstop (like Lindor) makes about four or five plays per game, while a center fielder (such as Buxton) makes fewer than three usually. As such, neither Buxton nor Lindor are likely to feature prominently in more than 10 of the roughly 75 total plate appearances that compose a nine-inning contest — less than 15% of the whole event, in other words. What reason dictates, instead, is that the viewer ought to watch the young and talented Lance McCullers pitch for the young and talented Houston Astros while monitoring the Cleveland and Minnesota games for the relevant at-bats within them.

This is merely one application of what might or might not be called hedonic arithmetic.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Detroit | 16:08 ET
Carrasco (68.1 IP, 72 xFIP-) vs. Verlander (Season Debut)
This game marks the return of Justin Verlander from a triceps injury that’s prevented him from appearing over the first two-and-a-half months of the season. Of some interest is what he’s able to exhibit by way of arm speed. After recording an average fastball velocity of 94.3 mph in 2012, he produced a figure exactly 1 mph less than that in 2013 and then another 1 mph less than that in 2014. His capacity to prevent runs has declined at a corresponding rate. Regard, by way of example, his xFIP- marks over each of the last three seasons, all in samples of 200-plus innings: 80, 92, 111. Decidedly upward, is the trend one identifies. During his second rehab start with Triple-A Toledo, Verlander’s fastball topped out at 94 mph while sitting in the low-90s, according to MLive.com’s Brendan Savage — figures which suggest that he’s returned, probably, to the 2014 edition of himself, but also probably not to the more dominant version which preceded it. In conclusion, all life is like a fleeting shadow and/or passing mist.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Salazar (61.2 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Price (83.1 IP, 96 xFIP-)
The reader might regard it as a sort of minor injustice — or at least passing curiosity — that accomplished and conspicuously talented Detroit left-hander David Price receives merely an average rating here (i.e. NERD score of 5) by the author’s fallible methodology for determining the aesthetic value of, in this case, pitchers. Indeed, closer examination of the matter reveals that Price has actually recorded an expected FIP, swinging-strike rate, overall strike rate, and average fastball velocity all superior to the league-average starter’s mark — by a full standard deviation, in the three latter cases. Peculiar to Price, however, is the pace at which he works: on average, he’s recorded 25.7 seconds between pitches, the absolutely highest figure among qualifiers. To place that figure into context, consider the bag of Newman’s Own microwave popcorn currently residing in the author’s cabinet. On average, such a comestible requires roughly three minutes to prepare. Over such an interval, Price would throw almost exactly seven pitches. An average starter, meanwhile, would be halfway to throwing his ninth pitch. As for Mark Buehrle, given his average pace of 16.0 seconds, when that Newman’s Own popcorn is ready, he would just have received the ball back from the catcher after having delivered his 11th pitch.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Cleveland | 12:10 ET
Happ (65.1 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Marcum (26.0 IP, 103 xFIP-)
As bearded philosopher-king Owen Watson demonstrated recently in the electronic pages, Cleveland’s rotation this season is producing strikeouts at an historical rate — even after adjusting for how the whole league is already producing strikeouts at an historical rate. Curiously, that’s not the immediate appeal of this game. Indeed, right-hander Shaun Marcum’s 24.1% strikeout rate as a starter does compare favorably to the league as whole, but ranks only fifth among starters on the club. The appeal, rather — according to the dubious methodology used by the author — lies in Cleveland’s batting corps, a group that has hit and run the bases at levels roughly one and two standard deviations, respectively, above the league average. Moreover, one finds that they control the strike zone excellently, having produced the league’s lowest collective swing rate at pitches out of the zone, but the third-highest rate of contact overall.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Chicago AL | 20:10 ET
Velasquez (Debut) vs. Quintana (67.1 IP, 96 xFIP-)
Outfielder Preston Tucker, ranked 18th among Astros prospects by Kiley McDaniel this past offseason, recorded his debut for Houston on May 7 and has since produced a batting line about 20% better than league average. Right-hander Lance McCullers made his debut about 10 days later, and has proceeded to record one of the best fielding-independent pitching marks among all starters in the meantime. With regard to shortstop Carlos Correa, he first appeared for the parent club just two days. Regardless, he’s already recorded more home runs than nine qualified hitters and more stolen bases than 39 of that same group.

In light of the above, the reader should not be surprised to learn that, today, yet another Houstonian is expected to debut for the club. Right-hander Vincent Velasquez was ranked third among Astros prospects by Kiley McDaniel this preseason and 75th among all prospects everywhere. According to McDaniel, he sits at 91-95 mph — and, indeed, skewed towards the higher end of that range during the Arizona Fall League last year, according to Brooks Baseball. He’s struck out over a third of opposing batters over five starts at Double-A Corpus Christi.

The human brain, which is marvelous but also feeble, is inclined to suppose that, merely because the debuts to have preceded Velasquez’s — that because those debuts have amounted to nothing but great success, so will this new player’s. That, obviously, isn’t really the case: Velasquez’s performance is dependent almost exclusively on Vincent Velasquez’s own capacities. That said, his capacities appear to be pretty substantial. Substantial capacities, in conclusion, is what Vincent Velasquez possesses.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Ray (11.0 IP, 87 xFIP-) vs. Frias (42.1 IP, 102 xFIP-)
In addition to representing an opportunity to collect another data point in a series of data points relevant to Carlos Frias’s career as a major leaguer, what else this game represents is an occasion, apparently, to observe left-hander Robbie Ray sitting at 94 mph with his fastball. A departure, that, from the version of Ray who made nine appearances with Detroit last year and recorded an average fastball velocity of 91.3 mph. Perhaps a result of that added velocity, Ray has produced excellent fielding-independent numbers over his first two starts with Arizona, posting a 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 44 batters over 11.0 innings with his new club.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Chicago AL | 20:10 ET
McCullers (24.0 IP, 71 xFIP-) vs. Sale (66.0 IP, 71 xFIP-)
Houston right-hander Lance McCullers entered the 2015 season as a pitcher who, despite the possession of conspicuous talent, also possessed a career walk rate of nearly 12% over roughly 230 professional innings. That none of those innings had been recorded above High-A suggested that the 21-year-old would benefit from further development. Indeed, while evaluating the Astros prospects, Kiley McDaniel estimated McCullers would assume a regular major-league role only in 2017. McCullers has not only assumed a role with the Astros two years earlier than that, he’s produced merely a 6.1% walk rate while so doing — which is to say, almost precisely half his cumulative minor-league figure. Is this proof that miracles exist? Perhaps, but only if — as gravel-throated American comedian Kyle Kinane suggests in the following video — only if the threshold for what constitutes a miracle is duly lowered.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Toronto | 13:07 ET
McHugh (70.2 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Dickey (70.0 IP, 119 xFIP-)
When the author first introduced pitcher NERD scores and the algorithm used to calculate them, there was near consensus among the wide readership that knuckleballers ought to receive a bonus of some sort, owing to the appeal of that same pitch. The solution at that time: an addition of (5 * KN%), where KN% denotes knuckleball rate, to every pitcher’s score. At no point in the meantime has there been any great uproar suggesting that the knuckle bonus was poorly conceived. That said, R.A. Dickey has produced so far in 2015 both (a) the worst fielding-independent numbers and also (b) the worst run-prevention numbers since before he was a Met or even a Twin. And yet, he currently possesses an 8 NERD, placing him at roughly the 85th percentile among all starters. Bearing in mind that the entire endeavor is futile, the reader is encouraged nonetheless to meditate upon whether Dickey’s NERD score is representative of the pleasure one continues to derive from his craft.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Toronto | 13:07 ET
Oberholtzer (8.1 IP, 96 xFIP-) vs. Hutchison (63.1 IP, 94 xFIP-)
Among the mostly haphazard adjustments made by the author last year to the certainly flawed method for calculating NERD’s game scores, one of them was to weight pitcher scores more heavily at the beginning of the season (by a factor of 3:1) and then team scores, with postseason-odds adjustments, more heavily at the end of the season (by a factor of 3:1, as well). The exact weights are tied to the percentage of games played across the league, meaning that, at the season’s exact midpoint, pitcher and team scores are weighted precisely the same. The justification for all this futile arithmetic: that team-related conditions (such as postseason implications, for example) tend to influence the appeal of a game more strongly as the season progresses. And the reason any of this is relevant right now: Houston and Toronto possess two of the highest team scores among the league’s 30 clubs — the former largely because of its combination of power and youth; the latter, owing primarily to its all-around batting production and baserunning.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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