Archive for NERD

NERD Game Scores for Saturday, May 16, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at San Diego | 20:40 ET
Scherzer (49.2 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Cashner (44.0 IP, 87 xFIP-)
Over the first seven starts of his 2015 season, Washington right-hander Max Scherzer has produced roughly the same strikeout rate that he recorded over his three most recent years in Detroit while also somehow halving his walk rate. Neil Weinberg examined some potential explanations for this development on Friday for the electronic pages. As one might expect, it’s some combination of irresponsible and impossible to reach any firm conclusions on the matter. Here’re two notable and possibly related developments, however: Scherzer is (a) throwing his fastball more often and also (b) inducing more swings at pitches out of the zone. The reader is invited to look for evidence of these trends during Scherzer’s start this evening. Also, because it’s a Saturday in late May, the reader is also probably invited to a graduation party for a relative or family friend.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for Friday, May 15, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Kansas City | 20:10 ET
Pineda (46.1 IP, 55 xFIP-) vs. Young (23.0 IP, 104 xFIP-)
Most of the observations one might reasonably make while attempting to characterize the nature of Michael Pineda’s success so far this year were made by Jeff Sullivan for the benefit of this site’s readers on Monday. Summarized briefly, however, what Pineda has done is to produce one of the league’s best strikeout rates while also recording (relatively speaking) an even better walk rate. Indeed, were Bartolo Colon never to have been born, Pineda’s walk rate would currently stand as the best in the majors. Coincidentally, Bartolo Colon having never been born is actually the premise on which noted filmmaker Charlie Kaufman has written a remake of Frank Capra’s 1946 classic It’s a Wonderful Life.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Kansas City Radio?

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NERD Game Scores for Thursday, May 14, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Kelly (34.0 IP, 99 xFIP-) vs. Elias (18.2 IP, 86 xFIP-)
In terms of aesthetic heights, tonight’s collection of games would appear to offer a lower probability of scaling them — or, perhaps more accurately, allowing the viewer to scale them — than what has been available previously this month. Boston’s Joe Kelly has recorded the highest average fastball velocity among qualifiers, but his arm speed hasn’t translated either to run prevention or even particularly great fielding-independent numbers. Seattle’s Roenis Elias throws strikes at a rate about a standard deviation greater than the average starter, but he lacks metaphorical electricity.

Indeed, one might consider utilizing tonight to observe some compelling amateur talent, instead. Hard-throwing Louisville right-hander Kyle Funkhouser, for example — ranked fifth among all draft prospects recently by Kiley McDaniel — starts tonight against NC State at 6pm ET, which game is available on Watch ESPN. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt plays Alabama at 8pm ET, which game features both right-hander Carson Fulmer and shortstop Dansby Swanson — both also ranked among McDaniel’s top-10 draft prospects. That game is available on streaming video by means of SEC Network Plus, itself also accessible through Watch ESPN.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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NERD Game Scores: An Emergency Involving Carlos Frias

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Miami at Los Angeles NL | 19:50 ET
Cosart (34.1 IP, 105 xFIP-) vs. Frias (12.2 IP, 77 xFIP-)
One of the giant but also rarely mentioned benefits of marriage is that it provides each of its constituent members with an infallible means by which to excuse him- or herself from unappealing invitations. Were loathsome Dayn Perry of CBS Sports to suggest, for example, that he and the present author meet at a local bar tonight, it would be entirely reasonable for that same author to decline the offer while mumbling something about his wife. Perry, despite his wide and impressive array of flaws, would be compelled to accept this answer and look to afflict his bilious spirit on someone else. For a mere “girlfriend,” however, no such vague excuses could be made, nor would Perry capitulate so quickly. In short, it would be awful.

Besides spouses, however, one other sort of alibi can prove effective, if used sparingly — namely, the sort involving emergencies. And here one finds the relevance of tonight’s Marlins-Dodgers game — in particular, the part of it including Los Angeles right-hander Carlos Frias. Frias, a relative unknown before joining the Dodgers bullpen last year — and still something other than a household name — has recorded both an expected FIP and average fastball velocity both more than 1.5 standard deviations better than the respective means produced by the league’s starters. He also throws strikes at a rate roughly one standard deviation better than those same starters. What this particular game represents is an opportunity to observe Frias en route to excellence. It is, in short, an emergent need that requires the attention of the reader — and can be cited as such should Dayn Perry or one of his spiritual doppelgangers invite you to an awful thing.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores: Noah Syndergaard Debut Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Chicago NL | 20:05 ET
Syndergaard (N/A) vs. Arrieta (37.0 IP, 74 xFIP-)
This contest represents the major-league debut of Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, a young and giant Dutch-American who was ranked first overall among Mets prospects this past offseason by Kiley McDaniel and 19th overall among every prospect by that same Kiley McDaniel. The 22-year-old Syndergaard features a promising combination of physical tools and performance. Here, for example, is his average fastball velocity (according to PITCHf/x) over the course of two appearances in the annual Futures Game: 96.54 mph. And here, also, are his strikeout and walk rates over 29.2 innings this season at Triple-A Las Vegas: 30.1% and 7.1%, respectively. Syndergaard receives the promotion as a result of an injury to Dillon Gee, although there are likely multiple possible scenarios in which he never returns to the minors.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL or New York NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, May 11, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Sabathia (38.0 IP, 96 xFIP-) vs. Colome (10.0 IP, 46 xFIP-)
Over 16.0 innings in 2013, Tampa Bay right-hander Alex Colome produced a strikeout- and walk-rate differential of merely four points. In 23.2 innings last season, he recorded a differential of only three points. Not particularly great, either of those numbers. Over his first 10.0 innings this season, however, Colome has posted strikeout and walk rates of 26.3% an 0.0%, respectively — to which figures the application of subtraction produces a differential of exactly 26.3 points. Considerably bigger, that number. How has he facilitated that improvement? Mostly by means of chance, probably. But also by way of an increased swinging-strike rate, too, probably. Most impressive thus far has been a pitch referred to alternately as a cutter and slider.

Here’s an example of it to Mookie Betts from last week:

Colome 1 Betts

And to Xander Bogaerts, from that same game:

Colome 2 Bogaerts

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for Sunday, May 10, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at Cleveland | 13:10 ET
May (26.0 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (26.0 IP, 55 xFIP-)
Today’s actual and official most highly rated game is the one featuring the Dodgers at the Rockies at 4:10pm — which is to say, the one featuring the perpetually effective Clayton Kershaw versus the curiously effective Jorge de la Rosa. That particular encounter, however, was also yesterday’s most highly rated game before inclement weather cancelled it. The virtues of the Dodgers-Rockies contest are enumerated in only slighter greater depth here. With regard to this game between Minnesota and Cleveland, its most notable quality is how it provides the opportunity to observe Cleveland right-hander Danny Salazar. Were pitcher NERD figures not capped at 10, Salazar would receive a score of 15. He’s produced an expected FIP more than two standard deviations better than the average starter; a swinging-strike rate almost exactly three standard deviations better. Plus he throws harder than nearly everyone else.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for Saturday, May 9, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Colorado | 20:10 ET
Kershaw (38.2 IP, 50 xFIP-) vs. de la Rosa (12.0 IP, 66 xFIP-)
One benefit of this game to America and the Americans who live within it, is that it provides an opportunity to watch Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Insofar as Kershaw’s arm and body will submit eventually to the deleterious effects of age, only a finite number of such opportunities exist. This represents one of them. Otherwise, here’s another compelling feature of this contest — namely, that it allows everyone to learn more about this current, not entirely recognizable version of Jorge de la Rosa. Because, some facts about his (very brief) 2015 season thus far… One: he’s recorded an average fastball velocity of 93.8 mph, higher than at any other point in his career. Two: he’s produced a 16% swinging-strike rate, higher by six points than his career average. Three: he’s allowed runs (regard this number: 9.00 ERA) with considerably more frequency that his defense-independent numbers (regard these numbers: 2.58 FIP, 2.51 xFIP) would suggest.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: No Comment.

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NERD Game Scores for Friday, May 8, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challhenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Gray (43.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Walker (22.2 IP, 120 xFIP-)
Seattle right-hander Taijuan Walker hasn’t provided much in the way of performance this season. The ERA is unsightly (as exhibited by the 222 ERA-), nor are the fielding-independent numbers distinguished for their world-famous sightliness, at this point (as exhibited by the 138 FIP- and 120 xFIP-). The projections suggest, however, that Walker will improve on all those numbers. And in terms of aesthetics, he offers the following collection of charms: considerable youth, plus velocity, and enough command not to render it all moot. Also, he works at a pace (19.5 seconds between pitches) nearly a standard deviation faster than the average starter.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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NERD Game Scores for Thursday, May 7, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Milwaukee | 13:40 ET
Frias (7.2 IP, 87 xFIP-) vs. Fiers (24.2 IP, 82 xFIP-)
Three years ago, following the completion of that season in which Michael Pineda had produced three-plus wins with Seattle despite almost the complete absence of a third pitch, the author endeavored to identify the next Michael Pineda. The idea: to find a pitcher in the high minors who threw roughly 95 mph (like Pineda) and also featured above-average control (like Pineda). The result: Garrett Richards. Richards’ success wasn’t immediate — he didn’t record his first signature season until last year — but he’s retained that pairing of skills and they continue to benefit him. This most recent offseason, the author endeavored to find the next next Michael Pineda (or simply the next Garrett Richards, perhaps). The result of that second effort: Carlos Frias. Frias exhibited both of the relevant skills in his first start of the season last Friday, sitting at just under 96 mph while recording just a single walk over 5.1 innings (box).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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