Archive for Offseason Notes

Offseason Notes for November 22nd


This grainy image reveals the secret to Peter Bourjos’ defensive range.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
3. Projecting: ZiPS for Los Angeles (AL)

Assorted Headlines
Baltimore Nearing Deal with Korean Reliever Chong
The Orioles are closing in on signing right-handed reliever Chong Tae-Hyon out of South Korea, MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli reports. Chong, 33, has pitched in the Korea Baseball Organization since 2001 and has made appearances with the South Korean National Team. Chong posted a 39:28 K:BB in 52.2 innings in 2011, but likely generates a number of ground balls by virtue of a submarine delivery. Below is some footage of Chong against China (starting at about the 4:08 mark). Warning: dope beats included.

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Offseason Notes – With Final AFL Leaderboards


Matt Antonelli is the Pride of Peabody, Mass.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Final (!) SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
3. Prospecting: John Sickels’ Top-20 List for Tampa Bay

Assorted Headlines
All the nerd that’s fit to print.

Orioles Sign Infielder Antonelli
The Orioles, fronted by new GM Dan Duquette, have signed infielder Matt Antonelli, MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli reports. It has come to my attention that Mike Axisa will question the wisdom of this deal later today in these very pages. Do not be swayed by his siren song! Matt Antonelli is a saint of a ballplayer and human! In only slightly related news, Antonelli was a guest on FanGraphs Audio this spring.

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Offseason Notes for November 18th


A Best Buy in Ranch Cucamonga at which Brandon Wood probably shopped while hitting 43 homers.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
3. Projecting: ZiPS for Chicago (AL)

Assorted Headlines
All the nerd that’s fit to print.

Colorado Signs Former Uberprospect Wood
The Rockies signed infielder and former top prospect Brandon Wood to a minor-league agreement on Thursday, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports. Wood famously hit 43 home runs as a 20-year-old at the High-A California League — a figure that, even after accounting for park effects, still pointed to excellent power from a potential major-league shortstop. As a major leaguer, however, Wood’s control of the strike zone has disintegrated almost entirely: in 751 plate appearances, Wood has a 4.3% BB and 29.0% K. To his credit, Wood improved upon those numbers after moving to the Pirates this year and managed to post his first positive WAR as a major leaguer. He’s a candidate at a third-base spot in Colorado for which only Ian Stewart and Ty Wigginton are the immediate competition.

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Offseason Notes for November 17th


Devin Mesoraco can’t bring himself to look at Jason Pridie.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League
3. Prospecting: Baseball America’s Top-10 List for Cincinnati

Assorted Headlines
News for nerds.

Blue Jays Acquire Reliever Kimball
The Blue Jays claimed right-hander Cole Kimball off waivers from Washington on Wednesday afternoon, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm reports. Kimball, 26, was shifted to relief by the Nats in 2009 and has posted high strikeout and walk rates over the course of his minor-league career. Kimball underwent rotator cuff surgery in July, so likely won’t be available to pitch at the start of the season.

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Offseason Notes for November 16th


Chicago (AL) lefty Chris Sale is one of the few major leaguers to play in khakis.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
3. Prospecting: Baseball America’s Top-10 List for Chicago (NL)

Assorted Headlines
Confirmed: Sale to Start in 2012
White Sox general manager Ken Williams confirmed on Tuesday that left-hander Chris Sale will be a starting pitcher next season, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Sale, 22, was an enormously successful starter in college at Florida Gulf Coast University, but has pitched exclusively in relief for Chicago, posting this line in 2011: 71.0 IP, 27.4% K, 9.4% BB, 49.7% GB, 2.73 SIERA, 3.00 xFIP, 74 xFIP-. Dave Cameron discussed on Monday’s podcast (around the 8:10 mark) how Sale might profile as a starter. Mike Podhorzer reflects on the changes in Sale’s fantasy value over at RotoGraphs.

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Offseason Notes for November 15th


Nationals prospect Tom Milone calls Bill James to verify the accuracy of his projection.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Projecting: Some Notable Bill James Projections for 2012
2. SCOUT Leaderboards and Notes: Venezuelan Winter League

Projecting: Some Notable Bill James Projections for 2012
As noted by Dark Overlord David Appelman on Monday, we’ve posted the 2012 Bill James Handbook Projections on the player pages. As noted later by that same Dark Overlord, James projects an average wOBA of .334 for a player set that averaged a .325 wOBA as a group in 2011 — and so, on average, these projections are likely about .009 points higher than one might expect from 2011’s run environment.

Below are some of what I’ll call “need-to-know” projections, presented in the order I looked them up. (Note: there are no park or league adjustments in these projections. Proceed with due caution.)

Player: Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL
Projection: 125 PA, .277/.312/.429 (.294 BABIP), .319 wOBA
Notes: This would mark a 60-point improvement over Blackmon’s 2011 wOBA (in limited PAs).

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Offseason Notes for November 14th


Twins GM Terry Ryan: A Case Study in Human Communication

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
3. Prospecting: John Sickels’ Top-20 List for Arizona

Assorted Headlines
Plouffe to Move Off Shortstop
I don’t know much about the science of human communication, but I’m guessing that people who do would have something interesting to say about this utterance (relayed by ESPN 1500’s Phil Mackey) by new-old GM Terry Ryan regarding Trevor Plouffe: “It sounds as if I think our thoughts are he’s probably going to be best suited to the outfield and DH.” The phrase “It sounds as if I think our thoughts” is vigorously indirect. Understood literally, Ryan is suggesting that he’s not sure if he knows even what he thinks (“It sounds as if I think”). In fact, Ryan is probably well aware of what he thinks. More probable is that he’s utilizing an indirect construction to emphasize both/either that (a) the decision is not final and/or that (b) the decision is not merely his, but the product of a group (“our”) effort. In any case, it also appears to be the true that Trevor Plouffe — owner of one above-average offensive season in the minors — will DH periodically for the Twins this season.

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Offseason Notes for November 11th


Pat Burrell, seen here strangling a defenseless elderly man, might retire soon.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
3. Projecting: ZiPS for the Detroit Tigers

Assorted Headlines
Equal parts fact and fiction.

Burrell Leaning Towards Retirement
Pat Burrell said Thursday that his baseball career is likely over owing to a right foot injury, the Associated Press reports. The (recently) 35-year-old Burrell was limited to 219 plate appearances in 2011, but still managed a 114 wRC+ — which still makes him better than Delmon Young (whose ZiPS projection you can find below), for example. In all, the former No. 1 overall pick by the Phillies in 1998 has posted 21.9 WAR over his 12-year career.

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Offseason Notes for November 10th


Today’s edition of Offseason Notes was written by two Mark Twains.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League
3. Prospecting: Baseball America’s Top 10 List for Washington

Assorted Headlines
All the nerd that’s fit to you-know-what.

(Matt) Young Signs with Detroit
Notable among the many players included in Baseball America’s most recent minor-league transaction log is OF/2B Matt Young. The 28-year-old Young became a free agent recently after spending his first seven years of professional baseball in the Atlanta organization. While he possesses almost no power (21 HR in 3637 minor-league PAs), Young has walked more than he’s struck out over that period and appears to rate as an average center fielder. OLIVER projects him as a 0.2 WAR player in 591 PAs for 2012 — which is actually better than Delmon Young, whom OLIVER rates as a 0.0 WAR player exactly.

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Offseason Notes for November 9th


“I’m just saying, I think Eddie Stanky has a couple-few good seasons left.”

Unsolicited Commentary
Some Notes on Scott Boras
Agent Scott Boras tells Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that (a) “a lot of teams” have inquired about free agent 40-year-old catcher Ivan Rodriguez and also that (b) “We have not seen [other free agent Rick Ankiel’s] best years.” The former statement is possible: despite the fact that Rodriguez is only a backup at this point, perhaps teams are interested in him as a mentor of young catchers. The latter statement, regarding Ankiel, is — as you’re already thinking in your own head — very likely false. Ankiel is 32 and, while he switched to hitting late-ish in his career (25), his offensive skills already appear to be eroding, as this painstakingly crafted graph suggests:

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