There are rate stats for just about every kind of opportunity a hitter faces in a game. Batting average tells you how often a player reaches base via a hit. On-base percentage tells you how often a player avoids making an out per plate appearance. But what about swings as opportunities?

Last year, I played around with the idea of production per swing. The idea was to examine what hitters gave the most value when they took a swing. The methodology was pretty simple: calculate the Weighted On-base Average (wOBA) each hitter generated using their swings — instead of plate appearances — as the denominator*.

Of course, there is a healthy correlation between actual wOBA and wOBA per swing (.83 in 2012), but less so Isolated Power (ISO). (wOBA/swing and ISO share only a .53 correlation.) Some of the results may not be all that surprising, but many certainly are.

Let’s first look at the top-25 so far this year:

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Last week, a number of chat questions about Kansas City Royals Bubba Starling earned me comparisons to ESPN’s Skip Bayless for statements perceived as outlandish. Yes, Starling was a top-5 overall pick in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. Yes, he was a two sport athlete with the assumed ceiling of not only a big leaguer, but National Football League quarterback as well. And to complete the trifecta. the young centerfielder was drafted by his hometown team and grew up only a half hour outside of Kansas City. There’s a movie script here. Damn me for ruining the happy ending.

Video after the jump

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The Tigers’ projected domination of the 2012 American League Central never quite came off. However, after a disappointing first couple of months that saw them below .500, the Tigers have been winning ever since. They were looking forward to this weekend’s showdown at home in Detroit with the division-leading White Sox. Detroit was only two games back.. All they had to do was get through the three-game series with the Royals in Kansas City in order to set themselves up. Sure, Anibel Sanchez had been mostly terrible since coming to the Tigers, and Rick Porcello was having yet another disappointing season (at least in terms of ERA), but they were matched up against Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie, respectively. No way the Tigers offense doesn’t light those guys up, right? If that wasn’t enough, Justin Verlander was matched up against Luis Mendoza.

According to Cool Standings’ “Smart” standings, going into the series in KC the Tigers had a 32 percent chance of winning the division and 61.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. A series win in KC would set them up nicely going into the weekend and for a shot at the playoffs generally. Things didn’t exactly work out that way. The Tigers got swept. As of today, the “smart” standings have Detroit down to a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs. What?

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We’re only three days from the expansion of major league rosters. On Sept. 1, all players on a team’s 40-man roster will be eligible to play in the big leagues without an accompanying move. Often times, baseball fans are treated to a sneak preview of teams’ top minor league talent as a result of September call-ups; or they’re surprised by a relatively unknown player who manages to contribute over the season’s final month.

In preparation for this year’s roster expansion, I thought it would be interesting to look back at the greatest-ever September call-ups, defined here as players that made their major league debut during the month of September.

There are, of course, two ways to look at this: The first is to look at players — position players and pitchers — who generated the most value for their clubs during their call-up. The second is to look at players whose careers began as a September call-up and then went on to have great careers.

I’m looking at both. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, the Boston Red Sox activated Daisuke Matsuzaka and sent David Ortiz to the DL. On Tuesday, they put Daisuke on waivers.

The recent Dodgers-Red Sox super-trade cleared the slate of expectations for Boston’s 2013 team, and it seems unlike they would be interested in giving Dice-K another chance while their minor leagues brim with newfound pitching talent. And though it is unwise to call the recent trade a salary dump — given the talent they got in return — it appears all postseasons bets are on hold for now. According to Paul Swydan, the Red Sox should have six open roster spots heading into next season, and one of those does not likely belong to the veteran, oft-injured Matsuzaka.

BUT: Despite having TJ surgery last May, despite hitting the DL with a back strain last month and despite being less than a month away from his 32nd birthday, Matsuzaka has a career-low walk rate and his best strikeout rate since 2008.

And he could be a worthy gamble for a team in contention.
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Lee Judge’s blog, Judging the Royals is, well, interestimg. I would have titled it Mock Scout with Lee J., but, surprisingly, I was not asked for my thoughts on the matter. I always imagined my first FanGraphs post on Judge would be for NotGraphs, and I suppose there is still time for that. However, if one can look past the Ron Polk Point System (Hey, Alex Gordon finally passed Eric Hosmer this week!), Judge’s “critical” stance, and other things, there is actually some good stuff in his posts about how players and coaches view the game.

However, today I do not want to focus so much on Judge as something from his comments after last night’s Royals versus Orioles match-up regarding our old friend Jeff Francoeur:

Jeff Francoeur doubled to right in the third, continuing his trend of taking the ball the other way since doing extra work with Kevin Seitzer. Last season Jeff did a better job of getting a pitch out over the plate, and he hit .285, 47 doubles, 4 triples, 20 home runs and had 87 RBIs. Getting back to that approach was part of the message he received during his benching, so seeing Francoeur hit balls hard the other way is a good sign that he’s getting back to last year’s approach.

The first thing I thought of was the Mets’ Tony Bernazard-spearheaded experiment a few seasons go with going to the opposite field more often, which Jack Moore analyzed when it was first reported. Judge does not say whether or not Kevin Seitzer ripped off his shirt and challenged Francoeur to a fight during Francoeur’s (miraculous) benching to work on his approach. Is there any fire to go with Judge’s smoke?

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Alfonso Soriano

Soriano’s power remains alive in his age-36 season. The sixth-year Cub owns a .499 slugging percentage thanks to 19 home runs and 22 doubles in 359 at-bats for a .226 ISO. This year, the hits are falling in as well, giving him a solid .272/.322/.499 line, enough for a 113 wRC+. Although his 2.9 WAR is inflated by an extremely iffy +12 UZR, he’s having a productive year for the second time in three seasons.

But it’s still not an $18 million season, and although Soriano is worth playing and even worth paying a moderate sum for, the Cubs want nothing to do with his $36 million owed over the next two seasons. If they can get a team to eat any sort of significant chunk of that contract, we might see Soriano man a corner for a playoff-contending team. The Tigers were connected in rumors as well, as the Giants, but the Hunter Pence acquisition likely closes that door.

Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer is showing the kind of power boost expected from a player moving to Coors Field from Target Field. His ISO has inflated from .176 to a solid .226, with just five fewer home runs (15) in nearly 200 fewer plate appearances.

However, the increase in his quality of contact has been mitigated by an inability to actually make contact. His 19.5% strikeout rate is his highest since 2007, lowering his batting average and OBP to .260 and .317 respectively. The result is a mere 104 wRC+ out of a 33-year-old with $21 million remaining over two seasons on his contract. Again, useful, and a potential improvement for some teams, but not worth the money.

So nobody would claim him, one would think, except Jeff Passan noted at least one general manager would “love to overpay Cuddyer.” Either way, the Rockies get a chance to work out a deal with a claiming team or Cuddyer passes through and the entire market is available – if, of course, Dan O’Dowd and crew are willing to deal.

Jeff Francoeur

Francoeur is in the midst of his worst year ever, hitting .238/.275/.366 (66 wRC+), with his .128 ISO his lowest since his disastrous 2008 season (.239/.294/.359, 70 wRC+). That season was the beginning of the end in Atlanta, even though he got 324 more pitiful (65 wRC+) plate appearances in 2009 with Atlanta before his traded to the Mets.

And so his path as a Royal becomes extremely similar to his tenures with Atlanta and New York. Start out hot – 117 wRC+ in debut year with Kansas City, 126 with Atlanta, 115 with New York – follow up with a big fizzle, and finish with a disappointing trade for a non-asset.

Francoeur’s clubhouse presence has convinced teams to add him despite similarly horrible seasons to his 2012 to date – he had a 65 wRC+ and a 76 wRC+ prior to his last two trades respectively. And he does have two marketable and easily-leveraged skills: a bat that typically crushes left-handers (.292/.339/.484 career line, although just .226/.268/.396 this year) and an arm that haunts opposing baserunners.

Teams won’t eat much of Francoeur’s $9.5 million remaining price tag, but the Royals shouldn’t require much to trade him – Wil Myers is ready and waiting to take his spot, and he won’t be up just to sit on the bench.

[Image by Justin Bopp]

After one of the lamest comeback attempts in recent memory (Manny Ramirez probably takes that trophy home), Jason Kendall has retired. While Kendall’s last few seasons were pretty miserable performances (although that did not stop the Royals and Brewers from marching him out there as much as they possibly could — indeed, Kendall insisted on it), he was quite good for a long time before bottoming out. Kendall is no Hall of Famer, but his career holds up pretty well against some of his more celebrated contemporaries. He had some bad times at the end, a testimony to the elusive-but-ever-present charms of “veteran catcher.” However, without delving into the salacious details of his personal life or discussing his tremendous way of handling tough questions from the press, it is worth recalling how much Kendall managed to accomplish in his distinguished career.

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Jeremy Guthrie and Jonathan Sanchez — both acquired in deals this past offseason — were supposed to help the Rockies and Royals, respectively, find some stability in their rotations. That never really played out however, and on Friday the two teams engaged a rare double change-of-scenery deal.

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And SHAZAM! Now’s there’s parity in the MLB!

The MLB is a funny organization. One would think that in a sport producing most of the world’s largest guaranteed contracts, the production being paid for on the free agent market would guarantee on-field success. But that is not the case. Large payrolls have been large busts, such is life.

We know that a larger payroll leads to more wins, if not necessarily a playoff appearance, but also that teams need a strong input from their farm system, too. Teams have to strike a balance with these two inputs. For some teams — like the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics — the vast majority of their talent input must come from the draft. They can afford only the January Free Agents — the unwanted scraps of the big market teams. Because of a matter of geography and history, newer teams in smaller markets like the Diamondbacks, Marlins and Rays will probably never again draw the kind of income the Mets and Yankees do.

So, an outsider might look at Wednesday’s Competitive Balance Lottery (CBL) and say, “Hey, well it’s good the MLB is trying to even things out a little bit, help out the little man.” But in truth, the CBL is a weak offering to a ever-crippled lower class. And if the MLB wants to keep small-market teams like the Rays capable of winning, they must undo their recent changes.
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