As the hot stove league kicks into full gear, Mets third baseman David Wright has taken center stage as reports have the Anaheim Angels a potential trade partner. With centerfielder Peter Bourjos rumored to be on New York’s wish list along with a couple of pitching prospects, Mets fans seem to believe Wright, one of the better players in franchise history, is worth significantly more in return.

On Twitter, I’ve asked a number of followers why with answers ranging from “Wright is the Mets Derek Jeter” to “CITI Field has depressed his value”. With Mets fans screaming “The fence, the fence” much like “Tattoo” screamed “The plane, the plane” on “Fantasy Island”, it seems as if Wright’s return to the seven-to-eight win player he once was is just around the corner. And while I can somewhat buy the park being a factor in Wright’s diminishing returns, outfield fences have little to do with Wright’s -31.1 UZR over the past three seasons.

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sa577984There is good news and bad news in terms of the Los Angeles Angels’ minor league system. The good news is that the club graduated – and leaned on heavily – a large number of prospects in 2011, including 1B Mark Trumbo, C Hank Conger, RHP Tyler Chatwood, RHP Jordan Walden, and RHP Bobby Cassevah. The bad news is that the promotions pretty much stripped the system in terms of upper-level depth. One more bit of good news, though, is that the club still has the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball.

1. Mike Trout | CF
BORN: August 7, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons (AA/MLB in 2011)
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round, New Jersey HS (25th overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

SCOUTING REPORT: Trout is about as close to a legit five-tool player that you can get. He can hit for average, has the potential to steal 30+ bases, throws well and could eventually win a Gold Glove or five. The power tool is the biggest question mark but he posted a .218 ISO rate in a potent double-A league.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Trout did not turn 20 until August but he received 123 big league at-bats in 2011. The youngster struggled, which in no way diminishes his future potential, and hit just .220/.281/.390. As a player with good speed, Trout will not continue to post BABIPs in the .240-.250 range. Although power is not a key component of his game right now, he knocked out five home runs and posted a .171 ISO and made some good, hard contact (20.7 line-drive rate).

YEAR AHEAD: While in the minors in 2011, Trout hit .326/.414/.544 in 353 double-A at-bats as a teenager. He doesn’t have much else to learn riding the buses but some time in triple-A would not hurt. With a full, mostly veteran outfield already in place in Los Angeles Trout may have to bide his time in the minors. He’d most likely be the first player recalled should an injury occur to Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter or Peter Bourjos.

CAREER OUTLOOK: As one of the Top 2 minor league prospects in all of baseball (along with Bryce Harper), it’s clear that Trout has a very bright future ahead. He won’t produce the kind of power that Harper will but Trout should have a stronger all-around game with excellent speed and defense, decent power and a solid on-base average. If he can stay healthy, it’s not hard to forsee him playing 15-20 years at the MLB level.

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Theo Epstein has officially joined the Chicago Cubs — which has largely thrown the baseball media into a collective frenzy — but another high-profile GM position remains wide open in Los Angeles.

The Angels’ GM opening is very attractive in many ways. The organization dished out $138.5M in contracts in 2011, ranking ahead of the Cubs as the fourth highest payroll in the majors, so the monetary limitations are relatively non-existent. The farm system also boasts elite prospects — such as Mike Trout, Jean Segura, and Kaleb Cowart — which lays the groundwork for potential sustainable success. The city of Los Angeles also packs a substantial number fans into the stadium, offering a consistent stream of revenue for the organization. The Angels finished the 2011 season with the fifth-highest average home attendance — 39,090 per night.

Despite all of those enticing aspects of the GM position with the Angels, significant drawbacks exist for any potential candidate, and they could deter a current GM from legitimately considering a switch. After all, Theo Epstein actively pursued the Chicago Cubs over the Los Angeles Angels for a reason, and it’s not all about organizational history. Read the rest of this entry »

Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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As far as team sports go, baseball is a bit odd. Unlike the constant motion sports like hockey and basketball and soccer, baseball is incredibly granular, with each event taking part in its own discrete space. The only major team sport (at least in America) that shares this granularity is football, but even football shares more with the aforementioned three than it does with baseball, due to the necessity of exceptionally coordinated team movements.

Instead, baseball is a series of individual vs. individual events. Oddly enough, this highly individual-based game seems to prevent all but the very greatest players of all time from carrying teams on their backs to championships — and even then, the production of a Barry Bonds or an Albert Pujols cannot hold a candle to what a Michael Jordan or a Bill Russell ever did for their teams, largely because these highly individualized events can actually exclude baseball’s superstars from even participating at all when the game is on the line.

Perhaps it is because of this phenomenon of the sport that we’ve seen Mike Napoli — a semi-platooned catcher-slash-designated hitter who was cast off by not one but two general managers by February– define so much of the American League in 2011.

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News broke this morning that Red Sox President of Baseball Operations (the de facto Red Sox GM) Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs have agreed to, though not finalized, terms which will bring the Yale grad to Chicago’s Northside. The deal appears to be worth $20M over five years, but the Cubs will undoubtedly need to send compensation (say, a prospect or some Benjamins) the Red Sox’s way — which may well escalate the cost beyond what’s beneficial to the Cubs.

If the compensation package includes a number of significant prospects, this may well result in Theo Epstein starting from scratch as the Cubs GM. So, let’s assume he is starting with a largely depleted farm system (one that was half-depleted in the Matt Garza trade). What moves does Epstein need to make immediately? And no, extending John Grabow is not one of them.

1) Fill the Front Office
The Jim Hendry regime nearly took pride in how small their front office was. They had scouts, sure, but their “statistics department” had long consisted of one man, Chuck Wasserstrom, until Cubs owner Tom Ricketts doubled their staff, bringing in Ari Kaplan and presumably purchasing a few more bristles for their push-broom.

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Prior to last night’s decisive ALDS game, Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland remarked of that Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner “had been really pesky” at the plate. I am not sure exactly what Leyland meant, but I have my own idea about what it means to be “pesky” at the plate. Usually, people mean that a “pesky” hitter is hard to strike out. That is part of it for me. However, when I think of Brett Gardner plate appearances, I think of not only a lot of contact, but a lot of pitches seen in general, both because of contact and simply taking pitches. So, let us say farewell to the Yankees by looking at the five most Gardner-esque, “pesky” hitters of 2011. To the junk stat laboratory!

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Angels shortstop Erick Aybar always had a pretty slick glove, but in 2008, as a 25-year-old, his bat made noise, too. Aybar showed an all-star level of talent, combining his good defense with a .312/.353/.423 line in 556 plate appearances, picking up 3.7 WAR and ranking behind only Chone Figgins and Torii Hunter and just ahead of Kendrys Morales (before we discovered the lost “s” in his name) and Maicer Izturis.

At the heart of his improved bat, however, was a .332 BABIP. Regardless of the cause — the standard “luck” idea thrown around by many, or adjustments made by pitching staffs, or another explanation — Aybar couldn’t sustain it. His BABIP plummeted to .289 in 2010, the second lowest of his career, and Aybar’s offensive game simply has too many flaws to handle such a drop. He doesn’t walk much (never a walk rate above 6%) and he doesn’t hit for power (prior to 2011, never an ISO above .111).

In 2011, we see Aybar returning to his 2009 levels and beyond, posting a .281/.319/.427 line. The resulting 110 wRC+ even outclasses his 2009 wRC+ of 104, thanks to the league-wide drops in offense. And he’s not even doing it with BABIP. In part, Aybar’s resurgence is due to a return to his old swing-happy ways.

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One has to imagine that Tony Reagins didn’t expect Mike Napoli to end up in Texas when he signed off on the deal to bring in Vernon Wells this winter. But here we are, and Mike Napoli is hitting .312/.411/.613 for the Rangers while the Angels stagnate 3.5 games behind, unable to make a push in recent weeks. Napoli may not be the singular reason why the Rangers are atop the AL West, but with 5.0 WAR bolstered by his impeccable batting line, he’s near the top of the list.

This situation presents is with one of the greatest “what ifs” of the 2011 season: what if the Angels never traded for Vernon Wells this offseason?

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A fair amount of Most Valuable Player and Cy Young discussion has been going around lately, and while it seems a bit early with a month left in the season, I suppose it is understandable. There has been less discussion of Rookie of the Year. I don’t blame anyone for that. I really don’t get that worked up about the individual year-end awards. (I’m not quite brave enough to say that I don’t care, maybe if Greinke hadn’t won in 2009 the story would have been different.) And if I’m not that pumped about the MVP or Cy Young races, why should I be excited about Rookie of the Year?

Still, a number of rookies have been impressive this season, so it is worth discussing. Brett Lawrie, for example, has hit so well in only 26 major league games that he’s already at two WAR for the season, right of there with the best of the American League rookie hitters. What if he (or Desmond Jennings, or whatever player you want to pick) keeps this up? What if they put up more value than any other rookie in less than half of a season? Would you vote for them for Rookie of the Year?

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