The minor leagues are a vast landscape of prospects, fillers and veterans. Each year, players from all three of those category impact the major leagues — sometimes for the better, sometimes not. But before they make their September callups or injury replacements, let us familiarize ourselves with some of the standouts.

International League (AAA)
IL Leaderboards

Brad Eldred (.374 OBP, .695 SLG, .465 wOBA, 197 wRC+)

The 31-year-old Eldred was slugging away in the Tigers minor league system (since released and playing in Japan). Like Dan Johnson (173 wRC+) with the White Sox, Eldred would have required multiple injuries before getting consideration at first base. The Tigers have both Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, while the Sox have a trio in Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and now Kevin Youkilis. That cavalcade of injuries never came — nor an age of enlightenment in which Delmon Young is no longer a DH in Detroit — Eldred never got a steady shot with the Tigers.

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The MLB Draft will commence on Monday evening at 7:00 p.m. eastern time with the Houston Astros kicking off the night with the number one selection.

Scouts and front offices have routinely been quoted as saying this year’s class lacks elite talent, especially within the college ranks. Chicago White Sox scouting director Doug Laumann stated over the weekend that “it’s probably as thin as I’ve seen in a decade.” Despite that, it appears the Houston Astros could dip into the pool of collegiate talent for the number one overall pick.

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Jed Lowrie has arrived. After four injury riddled seasons with the Boston Red Sox, the 28-year-old shortstop is experiencing a breakout year with the Houston Astros. Lowrie’s performance makes him one of the most exciting players on a Houston team devoid of talent. While health has always been an issue, Lowrie is proving that he’s a player the team may want to build around.

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I’ve been meaning to write about Jose Altuve for a couple of weeks now, but with Ryan espousing the virtues of Starlin Castro, this seems like the perfect time to talk about Altuve. Why does an article about the Cubs shortstop lead to a follow-up article about the Astros second baseman? Because Castro and Altuve are essentially the exact same player.

Below are the Major League career batting lines for both Castro and Altuve.

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Stephen Strasburg did his job Monday night against the Astros, notching the win and a quality start. He threw six innings and held Houston to two runs on six hits and one walk while striking out five. It was a solid outing and any pitcher across the league would take it, but this was Stephen Strasburg pitching at home against one of the league’s lesser squads. The no-hitter watch was started as soon as Jordan Schafer stepped up to lead it off for the Astros. Given the circumstances, Strasburg’s performance looks surprisingly human.

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This is footage of Houston right-hander Bud Norris’s second overall pitch — against Alejandro De Aza — from the Astros’ Tuesday night exhibition game against the White Sox. Said footage captures Norris throwing a pitch (a) that, owing to the velocity (91 mph) and arm-side run (about 5.8 inches, according to the game data) looks very much like a two-seam fastball and (b) to which the Astros broadcast team referred as a two-seam fastball.

Why that’s (potentially) notable is because, according to the PITCHf/x data at the site, Norris had no pitches classified as two-seamers in 2011. Brooks Baseball has 7% of Norris’s pitches from 2011 classified as sinkers — i.e. a close relative of the two-seamer — but only four of the 207 (1.9%) he was recorded as throwing induced a swing and miss.

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In perhaps the fasteset set of transactions I’ve ever seen, the Astros announced that they were releasing Livan Hernandez at 12:07 pm eastern time, and then Jon Heyman reported that Livan was signing with the Braves at 2:02 pm eastern. Livan wasn’t even unemployed for two hours.

Livan’s a pretty fascinating guy. While his xFIPs are crazy consistent over the last four years (xFIP- of 112, 111, 114, 111), his results have swung wildly from awful in 2008-2009 (ERA- of 138 and 133) to pretty good in 2010 (ERA- of 91) back to not great (ERA- of 118) last year. On one hand, you know exactly what you’re getting with Livan – a durable innings eater who won’t miss bats. On the other hand, you have no idea what you’re going to get from Livan, as his BABIP and HR/FB rates have fluctuated wildly over the last five years.

This series of moves perfectly illustrates how a player can have value to one team but not another. The Braves needed to reduce their exposure to disaster performances, and signing Hernandez gives them some rotation depth and the ability to let Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado start the year in the minors. While he doesn’t do anything to help raise their upside in win total, he probably helps raise the downside slightly, as they now have a decent enough fifth starter to keep the team from imploding if the kids aren’t quite ready on Opening Day.

The Astros, though, have little need to reduce their volatility. The marginal value of a win to a team in their position is quite small, and as a pure rebuilding organization, they’re better off figuring out what they have in a guy like Kyle Weiland instead. The innings Livan would have pitched for Houston would have just reduced the number of chances the team would have had to evaluate their young arms, and so the value of having a veteran stop-gap in place simply wasn’t there.

It’s weird to see a contender pick up a guy that the worst team in baseball just decided they didn’t want, but in this case, it makes sense for both sides. Perhaps that’s why it all happened so fast.

Read the methodology behind the ratings here. Remember that the grading scale is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore

Houston’s 2011 Ranking: #30

2012 Outlook: 26 (30th)

Five position players recorded a WAR above 2.0 (i.e. league average) last season for the Astros, and three of those five (Clint Barmes, Michael Bourn, and Hunter Pence) don’t play for the club anymore. Another (El Caballo himself, Mr. Carlos Lee) benefited greatly from a defensive rating (11.2 UZR) which is almost certainly not representative of his true talent. And the fifth, Brian Bogusevic, benefited not only from defensive runs (12.1 UZR in just 324.0 innings in the corner outfield) but also a .355 BABIP. All of which is a roundabout way of saying that the Astros’ present is dim. On the brightish side, J.D. Martinez appears poised to provide value on both sides of the ball, and offseason acquisition Chris Snyder (in tandem with now-less-injured Jason Castro) has a good chance of improving upon the -0.3 WAR for which Houston catchers combined in 2011. But in reality, the 2012 Astros are, on paper, perhaps the worst team in recent baseball history. They might not match the 119 loss season that the 2003 Detroit Tigers put up, but they’re a mortal lock for 90 losses and a pretty good bet for 100. This is just a roster that is not set up to compete against Major League teams.

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What do these fellow batsmen have in common?

• Adrian Gonzalez
• Matt Kemp
• Emilio Bonifacio
• Michael Bourn
• Michael Young

Well, probably a lot, seeing as how they all share a profession, but today let us examine a particularly unique distinction: The fact that they collectively represent the top five BABIPs of the 2011 MLB season.

Let’s find out how much was luck and how much was repeatable.

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The Houston Astros minor league system was abysmal for years but there is finally a faint light at the end of the very long tunnel… and it’s actually not a train. It’s the hope that comes with a new vision from a new front office filled with intelligent, forward-thinking individuals who realize the organization needs to build from within to survive – especially with the impending move to the American League West division, which is on tap for the 2013 season. To be fair, former GM Ed Wade and his staff were starting to right the ship with some smart decisions in 2011, which included the Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence trades, as well as some improved amateur draft choices. New GM Jeff Luhnow, formerly of the St. Louis Cardinals, comes with a strong reputation for developing and acquiring prospects. He appears to be the right man for this difficult – but exciting – task of rebuilding the franchise.

1. Jonathan Singleton, OF/1B
BORN: Sept. 18, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 8th round, California HS (by Philadelphia)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd (Philadelphia)

Although he already has three seasons already under his belt Singelton did not turn 20 years old until after the regular season concluded in 2011. The former Phillies prospect is definitely the type of player that the new front office in Houston can eventually build around. He should hit for average and power at the big league level. He shows both power and good pitch recognition but he’s too passive at times and allows too many drivable pitches to go by. It’s also one of the reasons that his strikeout rate jumped from 16.5% in 2010 to 24% in 2011. Singleton has yet to display above-average power numbers, having failed to surpass the .200 mark in isolated slugging, but he should eventually hit 20+ home runs at the big league level. Defensively, the prospect has played both first base and left field, as he was blocked in Philly by Ryan Howard. His defense in left field is average-at-best due to below-average range. Luckily, there should be no roadblocks at first base in Houston. Singleton will move up to double-A to begin 2012 and could see time at the big league level by the end of the season.

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