The Peter Bourjos trade rumors have started to circulate again. The primary discussant in the linked article is the Nationals, but the Royals, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays are also mentioned. With super-prospect Mike Trout in the majors, the Angels already having something of an outfield crunch and Bourjos flat-lining on offense so far this season, there is a surface rationality to the idea of trading him. Let’s briefly look at how Bourjos might fit into the plans of the teams allegedly interested in Bourjos before turning to the question of how this makes sense (or nonsense) for the Angels.

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The Blue Jays signed 37-year-old Vladimir Guerrero to a minor league deal Thursday. Though the upside may seem muted, it’s a beautiful idea.

First, the cost is minute. Ken Rosenthal suggests that the Jays will pay Guerrero $1.3 million, pro-rated to the amount of time he spends in the majors. Above .500 and just three games out of first isn’t such a big deal in May, but it does suggest the team has a chance to make the postseason at the very least. At the cost of a quarter of a win, there’s no reason not to do this.

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Jordan Walden has a jump step in his delivery. Jordan Walden has control problems. Does one cause the other?

He’s not the only one who has this tendency. Ask around and you might hear about Javy Guerra and Trevor Cahill. With the sample so small, does it mean much? What about other unrepeatable deliveries, like the ones from Chicago relievers Rafael Dolis and Carlos Marmol? Is there something different about the jump-step that sets it apart from other difficult deliveries?

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Brandon Morrow entered the 2012 season as one of MLB’s ultimate “what if” pitchers. He has owned excellent peripheral statistics throughout his entire career but has struggled mightily with balls in play and with stranding runners, resulting in ERAs much higher than estimators like FIP or xFIP or SIERA would have us expect. Morrow wouldn’t be the first pitcher to prove an exception to DiPS theory — Ricky Nolasco, for example, has followed a similar path. Morrow’s excellent strikeout-inducing stuff — three seasons over 10 K/9 — and his past two seasons with FIPs well below the league average led many to ponder what could happen if he puts it all together.

Oddly enough, entering last night’s start against the Angels, Morrow was excelling in the same facets of the game that typically kill him. He owned a 3.03 ERA despite just 21 strikeouts in 32.2 innings and seven home runs allowed, but a .215 BABIP and exceptional control kept runners off the bases. The Brandon Morrow of old really hadn’t surfaced — the one with all the potential and all the strikeouts — but he was more effective than ever, living off pinpoint control (2.2 BB/9) and his fielders as opposed swings and misses.

Last night against the Angels, Morrow threw a three-hit, eight-strikeout shutout, bringing together the best of both worlds.

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Read the methodology behind the ratings here. Remember that the grading scale is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago AL
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York Mets
#19 – Los Angeles Dodgers
#18 – Colorado
#17 — Miami
#16 — Diamondbacks
#15 — Cincinnati
#14 — Cubs
#13 — Milwaukee
#12 — San Francisco
#11 — Washington
#10 — Tampa Bay

Toronto’s 2011 Ranking: 8th

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The Toronto Blue Jays have faith in Dustin McGowan. Even though he’s only pitched 21 innings in the majors since 2008, the Jays this week rewarded the 30-year-old with a three-year, $4.1 million contract. With his new deal, McGowan will still make $600,000 this season before receiving $1.5 million in 2013 and an additional $1.5 million in 2014. If all goes well, Toronto can exercise a $4 million option in 2015, or buy out the right-hander for $500,000. While the financial commitment to McGowan is minimal, the Blue Jays’ decision to extend a pitcher with such a lengthy injury history is puzzling.

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Travis Snider has been locked in a battle with Eric Thames for the final roster spot in the Jays’ outfield, but I don’t think this makes any sense. Not because I think Snider should be handed a job, or that Thames is terrible or anything. No, the reason is that I’m not sure why Ben Francisco has a guaranteed job with Toronto.

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With disabled list information available going back 10 years, I have decided to examine some league wide and team trends.

League Trends

To begin with, here are the league values for trips, days and average days lost to the DL over the past 10 years.

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I have no idea if JPA — which sounds like the name of some backwoods, Alaskan air strip (or, sure, Brazil) — is an actual nickname for the Toronto Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia, but his name is surprisingly long (13 characters, not including the space), which is nuts, considering his name is actually just one name and two letters (my name, in the short version — Brad Woodrum — is only 11 characters); so what I’m saying here is that I couldn’t fit “J.P. Arencibia” in the title. But he still certainly deserves the post.

Last year, the Blue Jays handed their chief catching duties to 25-year-old Arencibia, and he promptly clobbered some 23 home runs and began looking like the legitimate heir to homer-happy, walk-disenchanted John Buck — from whom he received his starting role. Arencibia’s homers came with an uninspiring .282 OBP, putting him at a less-than-awesome .309 wOBA and 92 wRC+.

A lot of hope is riding on J.P. Arencibia — not only has he shown some early promise, but he also comes with a solid pedigree. As recently as last year, Marc Hulet rated him as the No. 3 prospect in a deep Blue Jays system. In 2012, JPA will once again saddle up as the Jays’ starting catcher, but how will he do?
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Leave it to Fangraphs readers to supply thought-provoking questions worthy of an entire post. After last week’s prospect chat, reader “GrittleTooth” belted a grand slam in the comments area with this gem:

I get that age is very important when evaluating prospects, but isn’t it also true that guys develop at different speeds and some ‘get it’ latter than others? What I’m getting at is that when you compare, for example, Collin Cowgill & Brett Lawrie the numbers they put up in the PCL last year were rather similar (.442 vs .460 wOBA over roughly same # PA’s in same league). Yes, Lawrie is 4 years younger, more highly regarded, and plays a different position. But how can you argue with the lesser prospect’s numbers?

Two-hundred words into a response, I realized this would make for an excellent post topic on age-versus-level and how that effects player projection at the major league level – especially given the statistics for both Brett Lawrie and Collin Cowgill were eerily similar in the same league.

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