We know this much: The NL will send a team from its Central Division to the World Series. Who? We do not yet know. But: The fact remains that this circumstance is no less a surprise to many prognosticators, forecasting systems, and blathering media faces. I cannot recall any one credible source projecting the the NL Central as the team to send a World Series team into the fray — much less to two playoff-teams to the tourney.

Nonetheless, here we sit on the cold stone of pondering, staring into the abyss of unpredictability, the majestic, mysterious abyss of this:

A moon ago, we heard news of the impending Astro’s sale, which comes with a DH apparently, as the proud once-Colt .45s intend to move AL-wise.

This is bad news for the top chihuahuas of the NL Central who feasted on their weak division, and produced perhaps the two least-qualified World Series contenders in a long… long… long time.
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This kicks off a position-by-position series that will look at the upcoming free agents. Because there are fans of 26 teams out there already thinking about next year and how their team can get better, that’s why.

Top Shelf
Ramon Hernandez
Not a single free agent catcher qualified for the batting title. Among those that managed 200 PAs, though, Hernandez led the crew in both batting average and wOBA. He actually managed offense that was 11% better than the league average, which is like wow for a catcher. The position managed a .245/.313/.389 line, and Hernandez had a .282/.341/.446 line. That would make him the offensive class of the free agent class. And by Matt Klaasen’s most recent catcher defense rankings, he graded out as top-tier as well. So why might the Reds let him go? Well they have Ryan Hanigan in hand and Devin Mesoraco on the way, so they don’t need to spend that money. Also, Hernandez is 36 years old, has averaged 337 PAs over the past three years, and is as likely to be below-average with the bat as he is to be above-average (or more likely below, given he’s another year older). Even though his defense is at least decent and the Dodgers are a possibility, the best fit for him might be an American league team that can shuttle him between catcher and DH to keep him fresh. Could he return to Baltimore? Replace free-agent-to-be Josh Bard in Seattle? The Mariners are looking for offense at any position they can get it.
Verdict: Mariners.

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Just look at that lovely mug.

Tonight’s NCLS matchup, pending the game isn’t rained out: Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Carpenter.

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News broke this morning that Red Sox President of Baseball Operations (the de facto Red Sox GM) Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs have agreed to, though not finalized, terms which will bring the Yale grad to Chicago’s Northside. The deal appears to be worth $20M over five years, but the Cubs will undoubtedly need to send compensation (say, a prospect or some Benjamins) the Red Sox’s way — which may well escalate the cost beyond what’s beneficial to the Cubs.

If the compensation package includes a number of significant prospects, this may well result in Theo Epstein starting from scratch as the Cubs GM. So, let’s assume he is starting with a largely depleted farm system (one that was half-depleted in the Matt Garza trade). What moves does Epstein need to make immediately? And no, extending John Grabow is not one of them.

1) Fill the Front Office
The Jim Hendry regime nearly took pride in how small their front office was. They had scouts, sure, but their “statistics department” had long consisted of one man, Chuck Wasserstrom, until Cubs owner Tom Ricketts doubled their staff, bringing in Ari Kaplan and presumably purchasing a few more bristles for their push-broom.

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Because I’ve been a horrible person and not included this in my past few articles, thanks to the Joe Lefkowitz Pitch F/x tool for the data in these posts.

Earlier I looked at today’s ALCS game, so now we move  on to tonight’s NLCS matchup: Edwin Jackson vs. Shaun Marcum.

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Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter were drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays within two years of each other in the early to mid 1990s. The two friends, and mountains of men, were supposed to front a talented Toronto rotation heading into the new millennium.

However, in quite the Pulsipher-Wilson-Isringhausen fashion, the desired results were not yielded. Expectations were lofty, but Halladay struggled with command — which sounds ridiculous but remains true — and Carpenter was unspectacular when healthy, and unhealthy rather frequently.

Following the 2002 season, the Halladay-Carpenter experiment ended. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, it’s possible that one more year of patience would have benefited them greatly. That season marked the first when Halladay became Halladay, the eventual Hall of Fame pitcher that will undoubtedly go down as the best of this era.

Carpenter, meanwhile, made just 13 starts and spent three stints on the disabled list with shoulder troubles. His numbers were nothing to write home about — 5.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.28 ERA, 4.67 SIERA — and the Blue Jays removed him from the 40-man roster after the season. Intrigued by his potential, the organization offered him an incentive-laden, minor league deal, but Carpenter turned them down. He hit free agency, and the rest is history.

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To see the definition of an expertly handled bullpen we need to merely look three days in the past, to Tony La Russa’s masterful performance Sunday against Philadelphia. After Chris Carpenter sputtered on three days rest, La Russa’s bullpen maneuvered deftly through the last six innings, holding the Phillies scoreless. All six of the Cardinals’ relievers — Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski and Arthur Rhodes — appeared in Sunday’s game, and thus a long start from Jaime Garcia on Tuesday would have been a boon for the bullpen.

Naturally, in the bottom of the sixth inning Tuesday in St. Louis, Tony La Russa was confronted with a conundrum: in a 0-0 game, Garcia came to bat with two outs and runners on first and second having thrown a mere 74 pitches. La Russa left Garcia in, and the decision would eventually lead to both their downfalls. Garcia would strike out to end the inning, and minutes later, with two outs in the top half of the seventh, Garcia would give up a three-run home run to Ben Francisco to effectively end the game.

Although Garcia certainly should have been able to retire Francisco, a .244/.340/.362 hitter on the season, La Russa’s decisions, first against pinch-hitting and then against removing Garcia, ultimately cost the Cardinals Game 3 and a 2-1 series lead.

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The Phillies and Cardinals split the first two games of their division series with each team winning in dramatic fashion. The teams now travel to St. Louis for two more contests after the Cardinals accomplished their goal of splitting on the road. However, both games could have turned out much differently had Charlie Manuel and Tony La Russa more actively managed their starting pitchers.

Kyle Lohse and Cliff Lee were each removed three batters too late, and as reactionary measures after the worst had already transpired. Being proactive in the manager’s seat is very important this time of year, when every out is crucial and a significant mistake can cripple playoff hopes. While Lohse’s implosion and non-removal seems more egregious given the nature of the Phillies comeback, the decision to leave Lee in the game for the seventh inning was just as ill-advised.

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Remember when St. Louis was doomed without Adam Wainwright? Yes, the Braves choked in a big way, but the Cardinals also made a magnificent September run to get into the playoffs. Their starting pitching was a huge part of that run, putting up a 2.85 ERA (2.96 FIP) during the final month of the regular season. Overshadowed by all the other Wednesday hoopla, Chris Carpenter dominated the opposition (I use that term loosely — it was the Astros) with a two-hit, 11-strikeout, one-walk, two-hit complete-game shutout. The need to win every game right up to the end of the season disrupted the preferred order of St. Louis playoff rotation, but it was not that long ago they looked like they were finished — at this point the Cardinals are playing with house money.

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The Cardinals steamrolled opponents in September en route to one of the biggest comebacks in baseball history. Trailing the Braves in the wild card standings by ten and a half games on August 24, they won 23 of 32 games, capturing a playoff berth on September 28, 2011: a date which will live in baseball insanity.

The Phillies, meanwhile, coasted through most of the regular season. Their 102-60 record marked a new franchise best, and that win total would have been even shinier if not for an eight-game losing streak directly after clinching in mid-September.

The regular season doesn’t matter anymore. Sure, the Phillies have home field advantage throughout the post-season — especially since the NL won the All Star Game — but playoff series are dramatic because anything can happen. The Phillies are a better team on paper, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cardinals advance to the championship series. The last time a team as hot as the Redbirds made the playoffs, the 2007 Rockies won a one-game playoff against the Padres and subsequently swept the Phillies out of the division series. That Rockies team went to the World Series. Everything clicked at the end of the month and they were able to parlay that late success into playoff victories.

The Phillies lost the second game of that division series primarily because reliever Kyle Lohse served up a grand slam to Kaz Matsui. Lohse was recently named the series opening starter for the Cardinals, adding another parallel. Matt Holliday now plays for the Cardinals, adding even another parallel. But unlike that series, where the 2007 Phillies were successful almost solely due to offensive exploits, this version of the team is built much differently, and forms a much more formidable foe. Here are the major takeaways to get you ready for this potentially very entertaining division series.

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