After yesterday’s seven-run, four-inning fiasco against the Reds, Chad Billingsley is sporting some ugly numbers. His current 4.65 ERA is the worst that number has been at this point in the season. Last year’s 4.34 ERA on June 15th was his second-worst, though, and something has been amiss in his repertoire since as early as 2009. As the doubles kept falling in on Wednesday, the twitter questions began pouring in: “What’s wrong with Chad Billingsley?”

The easy answer is nothing. His 8.09 K/9 is basically the same as his career number (8.18). So is his 3.84 BB/9 (3.86 career). His fastball velocity is still right around 91-92, and he’s still using the same pitching mix as ever. This could just be his ongoing below-average control working hand-in-hand with his career-worst BABIP (.336). It could.

Watching yesterday’s game, you can get that BABIP feeling. In the second inning, Brandon Phillips hit a dink that was a hair away from an out. Fred Lewis‘ double later that same inning was a hair fair. In the third inning, Edgar Renteria slapped a single into right field that wasn’t lined with authority. Jonny Gomes broke his bat on a flare single that prompted Vin Scully to exclaim that he’d “be happy with that.”

Then again, there were some moments that were all poor performance. The Scott Rolen double that plated the first run of the day was down-the-middle belt-high. A couple ball fours were way out of the strike zone. He walked in a run. He hit 94 on the gun a few times… on balls. It wasn’t a good performance waylaid by the bouncing ball. It was a mediocre performance that was augmented by some poor luck.

Scanning his pitching mix, it seems that Bills is using his cutter and curveball less and using his changeup more, and that doesn’t seem optimal. By pitch-type linear weights, his cutter and curveball are by far his best pitches. And yet his curveball usage is at his second-lowest level, and the pitch itself is at its slowest. Perhaps there’s something to this. Per Dave Allen, he only used the pitch eight times last night, in 88 pitches, which is far below his 18.4% career usage. Ryan Hanigan’s two-run single was on a curveball. The pitch broke well enough, but Hanigan seemed ready for it. There might be something off with his off-speed pitches: Billingsley only managed six swinging strikes on Wednesday, and all of them were on fastballs. Perhaps a Pitch F/x centered approach could find something wrong with his curve, even if the pitch is still a positive by linear weights. It doesn’t seem quite right.

Since 2009, Billingsley has the fifth-worst ERA-FIP difference among qualified starters. Ricky Nolasco and Jason Hammel sit one-two in that category. Somehow, this is a fitting group for Billingsley to be in. In recent years, the overall results have not matched up with the outcomes of his individual at-bats. As long as his curveball is okay, though, Billingsley should right ship again. Then again, with Clayton Kershaw in town, he’ll never reach top billing again in Los Angeles.

Source: The Washington Post

Consider this: The MLB’s opening day rosters were 72.3% America-born and, therefore, 27.7% foreign-born. Moreover, my diligent Googling skillz have suggested that 42 million Americans play baseball — recreationally, collegiately, high schoolally, professionally, or otherwise. So, that is 7 out of every 10 MLB players coming from a stock of 13.4% of Americans (24 42 million players / 313 million Americans).

In other words, the pool for American baseball talent is large and well-tapped (because it fills the most roster spots). High school and college teams have done an excellent job of vetting young American talent, ensuring that only the best reach the minors — and then the best of the best reach the majors. Despite this considerable pool of American talent, the teams that want an edge know they cannot let the local talent satisfy their needs. Enter: East Asia.
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Former Milwaukee, Colorado, Cleveland, St. Louis, Washington, and Los Angeles infielder Ronnie Belliard announced his retirement yesterday. This probably won’t garner too much attention. That is understandable, as Belliard was mostly an unspectacular player at a position that is perhaps the most frequently overlooked. This isn’t a “Belliard was a hidden superstar” post, but he was somewhat underrated, and he certainly had his moments.

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Wrapping up the series on trade targets, today we’ll look at a few catchers who might be available (and perhaps even desirable!) for teams in contention. With the Diamondbacks surprisingly in the race for the National League West (at least for the moment), Miguel Montero isn’t on the table (if he ever would have been), and he probably would have headed up this list. Leaving out the multitudes of generic backup catchers (the Jose Molinas and Matt Treanors [Treanor!] of the world), there isn’t much out there. Among the contenders, the Giants need to fill a Buster Posey-shaped hole and the Red Sox probably want to improve on the Jason Varitek–Jarrod Saltalamacchia Duo of Yuck. Here are four catchers might be available and/or could draw varying degrees of interest.

In no particular order…

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We’ve already run through first basemen and designated hitters, corner outfielders, and middle infielders who could be available at the trading deadline. Today, we cover five relievers who could be switching teams over the next two months.

PLAYER: Heath Bell
TEAM: Padres
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Cardinals, Indians, Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: $7.5 million, free agent after the season
PROJECTED WAR: 1.3

Bell is pretty clearly the best “proven closer” on the market, and he’s likely the best overall reliever as well. Even though his K/9 is down to 7.0 this year, his swinging strike rate of 9.1% indicates that it’ll increase a bit, even if it doesn’t get all the way back to his gaudy 11.1 rate from 2010. To compensate, Bell’s ground ball rate is up to 51% this year — an especially nice quality to keep were he to exit spacious PETCO Park.

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The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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James Loney is having a horrible start to the 2011 season. His wRC+ of 58 is by far the lowest of his career and is the seventh worst in the league. That kind of performance from first basemen is unacceptable. But the Los Angeles Dodgers have started him in every one of their 51 games this year (@truebluela notes that Loney has started in the past 120 Dodgers games). With Loney at first for the foreseeable future it is important to see what are the causes of his problems.

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If you want a quick glimpse of some players who probably shouldn’t qualify for the batting title, go to the leader boards, click on Advanced, and then click on wOBA. There you will see a list of players whose wOBAs range from pretty damn bad, Will Venable at .285, to downright putrid, Miguel Tejada at .224. Some of these players figure to rise from their unworthy starts and earn their spots in the lineup. Others will find spots on the bench, or, in some cases, the waiver wire. Such is life in baseball.

Despite their horrible overall production, some of these players have managed to get their scant few hits in a timely manner. A few of the bottom dwellers have racked up a decent number of runs and RBI in their travels. While it’s not at all indicative of their talent, it has helped their team in some small way. I’d like to highlight a couple of these instances today.

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“Hey, guys. Remember how I’m really good at baseball? Yeah, me too.”

This edition of One Night Only (from a super-extra-special guest host!) contains:

1. Expanded previews for two games: a matchup of aces in Boston, and a West Coast rivalry game featuring two solid young pitchers.

2. Additionally, find enclosed brief previews for three other, only slightly less titillating tilts: Atlanta at Arizona, Chicago (AL) at Cleveland, and Milwaukee at San Diego.

3. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

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Matt Kemp may have grabbed the early headlines for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but Andre Ethier is the talk of Hollywood right now. Propelled by a 24-game hitting streak, Ethier has been punishing baseballs the entire season. Ethier’s strong start continued Wednesday as he not only extended his hitting streak, but hit the eventual game winning home run in the 10th inning. As with most players on extended hitting streaks, Ethier has benefited from a great deal of luck this season. While that unfortunately makes Ethier a candidate for regression as the season progresses, there are a few interesting nuggets (copyright Peter King) in his stat line that indicate Ethier is completely locked in at the plate.
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