2011 wOBA: By Batting Order

The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.

The Book by Tango, MGL, and Dolphin pretty effectively uncovers the ultimate lineup. Sky Kalkman on Beyond the Boxscore did a dandy job of Cliffnoting the chapter here, but honestly, if you have not read The Book, then what are you doing here, reading my stuff?! Go purchase said tome and grow in wisdom!

Anyway, The Book, using Markov Chains and Rasputin Ropes and all other manners of mystical devices, determined the following, summarized by Kalkman:

…Here’s how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he’s a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

Conventional, ol’ timey wisdom dictates you slot weaker hitters into the #1 and #2 slots, and we can definitely see that manifest thus far in 2011:

Average wOBA per Slot

It is important to remember these numbers tell the season’s story; they do not prophesy its end. If we wanted to anticipate future performances, we would probably find the player’s career averages more informative. On the aggregate level like this, though, we can see a glimmer of the team’s priorities, as well as a number of notable early hot streaks.

Let’s delve into the specifics now.

The NL:

I am actually a rather big fan of batting the pitcher 8th and do so whenever I get the chance (which would be, through yesterday, never). However, when we consider how the #7, #8, and #9 slots have decreasing importance, it is somewhat impressive to see NL managers rather effectively utilizing this descent. Some managers seem compelled to bat the catcher 9th no matter who he his, but maybe we are seeing an end to that frustrating and backward era?

Also of note: The Washington Nationals basically have had turkey sandwiches batting 1st and 2nd. The combo of Rick Ankiel, Ian Desmond, and Roger Bernandina have combined for an epically bad start to every Nationals game.

We also can see how Kosuke Fukudome and Starlin Castro have combined the league’s best leadoff slot, but a large portion of that success is due to Fukudome’s hot, high-BABIP start. And down in Frisco, the Giants pitchers have flexed some uncommon muscle. [Nevermind. I was looking at the Angels, who snuck into both charts.] Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner have combined for an impressive 5 doubles.

The AL:

Perhaps due to random fluctuations and uncommon cold stretches, AL hitters in the 7th slot are hitting worse (.294) than the average AL 9th slot (.300). The Twins, Mariners, and Orioles have certainly added to this unusual disparity, but the combo of Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland have certainly added a lot of oomph to the #7 group, so we definitely cannot blame Texas.

The Twins seem to be putting anti-optimization to the test. Their combo of #2 hitters has compiled an impressively terrible sub-.250 wOBA while their #6 hitters have nearly averaged .350 wOBA. It’s not that I think Jim Thome should be leading off, it’s just that I think there’s a better way to arrange this.

Meanwhile, it would be funny if it was not tragic: The Orioles best hitting has come from the 9th slot.

For you extra nerdy fans, I’ve also included the meat of my dataset, plus steals and such: