2011 wOBA: By Batting Order by Bradley Woodrum June 1, 2011 The following data is current through 5-30-2011. If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable. Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season. The Book by Tango, MGL, and Dolphin pretty effectively uncovers the ultimate lineup. Sky Kalkman on Beyond the Boxscore did a dandy job of Cliffnoting the chapter here, but honestly, if you have not read The Book, then what are you doing here, reading my stuff?! Go purchase said tome and grow in wisdom! Anyway, The Book, using Markov Chains and Rasputin Ropes and all other manners of mystical devices, determined the following, summarized by Kalkman: …Here’s how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs: #1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9 So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he’s a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision. Conventional, ol’ timey wisdom dictates you slot weaker hitters into the #1 and #2 slots, and we can definitely see that manifest thus far in 2011: Average wOBA per Slot It is important to remember these numbers tell the season’s story; they do not prophesy its end. If we wanted to anticipate future performances, we would probably find the player’s career averages more informative. On the aggregate level like this, though, we can see a glimmer of the team’s priorities, as well as a number of notable early hot streaks. Let’s delve into the specifics now. The NL: I am actually a rather big fan of batting the pitcher 8th and do so whenever I get the chance (which would be, through yesterday, never). However, when we consider how the #7, #8, and #9 slots have decreasing importance, it is somewhat impressive to see NL managers rather effectively utilizing this descent. Some managers seem compelled to bat the catcher 9th no matter who he his, but maybe we are seeing an end to that frustrating and backward era? Also of note: The Washington Nationals basically have had turkey sandwiches batting 1st and 2nd. The combo of Rick Ankiel, Ian Desmond, and Roger Bernandina have combined for an epically bad start to every Nationals game. We also can see how Kosuke Fukudome and Starlin Castro have combined the league’s best leadoff slot, but a large portion of that success is due to Fukudome’s hot, high-BABIP start. And down in Frisco, the Giants pitchers have flexed some uncommon muscle. [Nevermind. I was looking at the Angels, who snuck into both charts.] Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner have combined for an impressive 5 doubles. The AL: Perhaps due to random fluctuations and uncommon cold stretches, AL hitters in the 7th slot are hitting worse (.294) than the average AL 9th slot (.300). The Twins, Mariners, and Orioles have certainly added to this unusual disparity, but the combo of Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland have certainly added a lot of oomph to the #7 group, so we definitely cannot blame Texas. The Twins seem to be putting anti-optimization to the test. Their combo of #2 hitters has compiled an impressively terrible sub-.250 wOBA while their #6 hitters have nearly averaged .350 wOBA. It’s not that I think Jim Thome should be leading off, it’s just that I think there’s a better way to arrange this. Meanwhile, it would be funny if it was not tragic: The Orioles best hitting has come from the 9th slot. For you extra nerdy fans, I’ve also included the meat of my dataset, plus steals and such: Arizona Diamondbacks Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 257 9 13 6 .285 .344 2nd 247 7 12 2 .266 .301 3rd 238 10 9 4 .299 .370 4th 231 5 3 3 .336 .343 5th 228 9 4 1 .261 .316 6th 224 6 1 2 .299 .333 7th 219 5 4 0 .304 .353 8th 217 8 3 1 .327 .337 9th 212 3 0 0 .246 .205 Atlanta Braves Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 258 6 1 6 .289 .334 2nd 246 6 2 3 .279 .301 3rd 245 4 0 1 .277 .301 4th 239 7 1 0 .358 .367 5th 233 7 1 3 .205 .260 6th 228 9 1 1 .299 .348 7th 223 6 3 0 .258 .270 8th 217 6 0 0 .318 .354 9th 212 3 1 1 .231 .188 Baltimore Orioles Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 244 3 7 2 .261 .277 2nd 239 5 4 0 .257 .290 3rd 237 4 2 0 .293 .280 4th 230 5 0 0 .317 .329 5th 223 5 0 1 .272 .290 6th 218 6 5 1 .314 .339 7th 212 5 0 0 .238 .271 8th 202 9 3 0 .252 .343 9th 199 5 1 0 .352 .351 Boston Red Sox Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 254 5 17 6 .328 .354 2nd 254 4 14 2 .276 .310 3rd 247 9 0 0 .348 .377 4th 238 11 1 0 .306 .401 5th 234 7 2 1 .322 .406 6th 229 7 0 1 .286 .329 7th 225 6 2 2 .274 .298 8th 216 4 4 0 .291 .292 9th 210 6 2 2 .261 .312 Chicago Cubs Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 241 3 5 1 .402 .410 2nd 236 1 3 1 .319 .318 3rd 232 1 2 1 .332 .330 4th 226 3 0 1 .305 .326 5th 219 5 0 2 .338 .359 6th 215 11 0 0 .355 .403 7th 207 8 5 0 .302 .324 8th 201 4 0 2 .286 .300 9th 196 2 0 0 .242 .195 Chicago White Sox Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 261 0 9 8 .298 .305 2nd 256 5 2 2 .301 .330 3rd 251 10 2 4 .268 .341 4th 246 11 1 1 .302 .363 5th 242 7 0 0 .228 .289 6th 233 4 4 0 .241 .285 7th 222 6 3 3 .250 .284 8th 216 8 0 3 .289 .342 9th 209 3 4 4 .297 .295 Cincinnati Reds Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 269 8 17 2 .331 .327 2nd 262 6 7 0 .243 .300 3rd 251 6 4 3 .369 .421 4th 247 6 1 2 .277 .334 5th 242 15 4 1 .281 .369 6th 239 5 4 1 .331 .335 7th 231 6 1 3 .312 .329 8th 225 3 3 1 .270 .292 9th 218 5 1 0 .272 .253 Cleveland Indians Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 239 9 4 2 .310 .345 2nd 234 10 7 0 .306 .371 3rd 222 5 7 3 .321 .318 4th 217 7 1 1 .239 .317 5th 211 8 1 1 .350 .343 6th 209 3 2 2 .259 .262 7th 204 1 3 2 .306 .309 8th 200 6 2 1 .283 .326 9th 194 3 2 0 .301 .304 Colorado Rockies Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 251 0 4 6 .325 .302 2nd 247 2 5 2 .351 .339 3rd 244 9 6 1 .273 .329 4th 233 12 3 1 .219 .352 5th 227 11 2 2 .292 .386 6th 221 7 2 0 .311 .326 7th 214 5 6 1 .305 .344 8th 208 6 1 1 .270 .341 9th 204 2 0 1 .214 .166 Detroit Tigers Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 245 3 7 2 .288 .270 2nd 236 3 2 0 .313 .313 3rd 231 4 0 1 .234 .264 4th 228 11 0 1 .324 .407 5th 225 5 2 1 .294 .323 6th 220 9 4 0 .310 .365 7th 216 2 0 2 .280 .281 8th 207 9 2 0 .296 .332 9th 199 2 2 1 .290 .276 Florida Marlins Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 245 4 6 4 .291 .296 2nd 239 2 5 4 .242 .282 3rd 233 3 8 5 .297 .307 4th 229 7 1 0 .338 .379 5th 223 8 0 1 .320 .356 6th 214 13 1 0 .320 .411 7th 211 4 0 2 .300 .304 8th 204 3 1 1 .297 .291 9th 196 0 2 0 .257 .197 Houston Astros Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 252 1 21 2 .346 .321 2nd 242 2 8 1 .296 .301 3rd 239 7 3 0 .376 .376 4th 233 5 4 0 .260 .308 5th 226 4 2 1 .372 .338 6th 223 2 0 2 .268 .242 7th 217 5 2 0 .308 .321 8th 211 4 1 1 .304 .319 9th 202 3 2 0 .299 .256 Kansas City Royals Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 256 7 13 1 .228 .315 2nd 252 8 6 2 .295 .346 3rd 246 7 4 1 .333 .364 4th 238 5 5 1 .297 .324 5th 233 7 3 0 .290 .343 6th 228 3 4 2 .341 .328 7th 220 5 7 0 .299 .307 8th 214 2 2 1 .248 .315 9th 208 1 7 5 .304 .289 Los Angeles Angels Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 267 3 13 4 .316 .327 2nd 261 8 7 2 .335 .359 3rd 254 3 7 3 .317 .346 4th 249 9 2 2 .260 .319 5th 241 2 2 2 .282 .291 6th 234 6 4 1 .311 .322 7th 229 9 3 1 .296 .317 8th 225 4 1 3 .293 .298 9th 218 3 5 1 .299 .275 Los Angeles Dodgers Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 251 1 9 2 .262 .267 2nd 245 2 4 1 .358 .334 3rd 236 5 2 1 .372 .358 4th 235 12 14 3 .354 .390 5th 231 5 2 0 .274 .282 6th 226 4 1 2 .268 .265 7th 220 6 0 0 .245 .282 8th 216 2 1 1 .329 .289 9th 206 3 0 1 .165 .193 Milwaukee Brewers Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 252 9 6 2 .346 .368 2nd 243 7 9 3 .275 .295 3rd 236 12 13 1 .336 .424 4th 232 11 0 0 .290 .390 5th 229 3 0 1 .274 .298 6th 221 2 2 1 .280 .269 7th 217 5 4 1 .226 .246 8th 210 5 3 0 .340 .345 9th 204 4 2 0 .256 .222 Minnesota Twins Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 239 2 4 1 .326 .353 2nd 232 3 4 0 .213 .244 3rd 228 4 2 0 .304 .303 4th 219 5 0 0 .303 .318 5th 217 4 4 1 .275 .308 6th 213 7 2 1 .297 .346 7th 210 3 2 0 .252 .257 8th 201 1 1 1 .210 .214 9th 193 1 4 1 .268 .269 New York Mets Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 253 1 19 4 .354 .363 2nd 244 3 7 2 .272 .297 3rd 234 9 9 0 .292 .354 4th 228 6 3 1 .320 .348 5th 225 4 2 0 .312 .325 6th 221 6 3 3 .285 .339 7th 216 3 1 2 .364 .354 8th 212 4 4 1 .288 .283 9th 207 1 1 1 .209 .172 New York Yankees Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 250 2 6 2 .289 .298 2nd 241 14 7 3 .273 .377 3rd 237 16 0 1 .257 .395 4th 230 10 3 1 .289 .350 5th 225 9 5 1 .285 .347 6th 219 4 2 3 .241 .278 7th 211 8 1 1 .195 .296 8th 206 10 8 1 .350 .435 9th 199 7 10 3 .260 .326 Oakland Athletics Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 259 2 15 6 .258 .292 2nd 249 3 2 1 .259 .301 3rd 246 2 2 1 .290 .293 4th 238 9 3 0 .304 .334 5th 233 3 3 1 .263 .291 6th 228 4 3 0 .250 .307 7th 226 2 4 1 .256 .271 8th 219 3 1 0 .319 .317 9th 215 3 5 5 .288 .306 Philadelphia Phillies Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 255 6 12 1 .290 .327 2nd 249 5 7 1 .317 .359 3rd 244 3 6 1 .255 .294 4th 239 13 0 0 .298 .348 5th 234 4 6 3 .257 .289 6th 225 9 2 1 .285 .355 7th 216 3 1 0 .276 .287 8th 208 1 2 0 .277 .251 9th 206 1 2 1 .328 .234 Pittsburgh Pirates Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 237 8 15 5 .296 .361 2nd 228 4 9 2 .320 .323 3rd 223 5 3 2 .256 .306 4th 223 5 2 0 .277 .317 5th 220 4 2 1 .236 .254 6th 214 11 1 2 .329 .393 7th 203 2 1 2 .315 .293 8th 199 2 1 2 .290 .276 9th 192 0 1 1 .215 .140 San Diego Padres Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 249 2 12 7 .295 .288 2nd 245 2 14 1 .301 .296 3rd 239 0 6 1 .260 .253 4th 237 5 1 0 .248 .267 5th 228 9 3 1 .305 .329 6th 219 8 7 0 .364 .373 7th 215 2 6 1 .240 .242 8th 208 2 1 1 .286 .284 9th 201 3 3 2 .217 .193 San Francisco Giants Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 241 2 7 2 .350 .326 2nd 236 2 2 2 .321 .308 3rd 233 4 4 2 .260 .279 4th 227 4 6 1 .270 .282 5th 219 10 2 2 .307 .378 6th 216 7 5 1 .252 .312 7th 210 3 2 4 .248 .267 8th 208 3 4 0 .285 .299 9th 199 2 1 1 .261 .202 Seattle Mariners Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 241 0 13 4 .293 .301 2nd 237 1 8 5 .215 .249 3rd 232 6 5 0 .264 .312 4th 229 3 2 0 .291 .288 5th 223 7 1 2 .306 .341 6th 220 5 3 3 .309 .327 7th 213 3 3 5 .296 .266 8th 206 1 4 1 .223 .232 9th 197 2 3 1 .319 .309 St. Louis Cardinals Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 262 0 7 1 .319 .305 2nd 255 5 4 2 .406 .397 3rd 249 9 4 0 .268 .351 4th 246 7 1 3 .387 .398 5th 240 12 3 1 .331 .413 6th 235 7 4 3 .311 .342 7th 234 3 1 2 .358 .368 8th 222 1 4 1 .280 .282 9th 212 1 1 0 .202 .188 Tampa Bay Rays Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 247 4 12 8 .257 .292 2nd 239 5 4 2 .286 .309 3rd 230 6 6 0 .344 .358 4th 226 7 5 1 .241 .302 5th 221 13 4 1 .338 .400 6th 215 5 8 4 .318 .325 7th 208 1 3 0 .264 .281 8th 198 8 1 3 .278 .312 9th 195 3 4 0 .248 .265 Texas Rangers Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 250 7 14 2 .267 .361 2nd 247 2 13 2 .304 .307 3rd 238 3 6 0 .362 .355 4th 233 9 1 2 .270 .364 5th 229 6 1 1 .265 .292 6th 221 13 2 4 .226 .342 7th 215 11 3 1 .295 .377 8th 210 9 1 0 .262 .338 9th 203 4 9 2 .272 .317 Toronto Blue Jays Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 257 5 7 4 .286 .319 2nd 251 6 8 4 .335 .333 3rd 245 20 5 2 .315 .487 4th 242 7 6 1 .294 .315 5th 233 4 6 1 .314 .337 6th 231 6 3 0 .199 .252 7th 220 3 5 3 .289 .308 8th 213 3 6 2 .325 .329 9th 211 5 5 4 .280 .309 Washington Nationals Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA 1st 244 4 13 0 .233 .257 2nd 238 2 9 1 .254 .257 3rd 232 7 6 2 .326 .364 4th 225 8 3 0 .248 .321 5th 218 7 2 4 .255 .298 6th 211 10 4 3 .338 .345 7th 207 5 5 3 .309 .337 8th 202 4 1 1 .257 .274 9th 193 0 1 1 .254 .201