For a catcher, the “tools of ignorance” is an endearing term used to sum up the challenges of the position in a neat and tidy phrase. Over the past three seasons, scouting well over 100 games and a few hundred prospects has led me to develop my own “tools of magnificence” as a handful of players have displayed 80-grade tools which are now seared into my scouting conscious.
Just three days after Yoenis Cespedes toured their new ballpark, the Miami Marlins have reportedly offered the 26-year-old outfielder a contract.
The contract is allegedly for six years, but the financial details are shaky at this time. While the initial report suggested the deal was worth $40 million, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald is hearing the Marlins offered less money. Unless the Marlins have offered significantly less than $40 million, Cespedes’ contract will likely break the record for Cuban-born players. That slot is currently held by Aroldis Chapman, who received a six year, $30.25 million contract from the Cincinnati Reds.
Signing Cespedes would be a huge gain for the Marlins, who currently lack a true center fielder on their roster. The Chris Coghlan experiment was a disaster last season, causing the Marlins to turn to Emilio Bonifacio. While Bonifacio experienced a breakout season, much of his success was a result for a .372 BABIP, which was the second highest BABIP among qualified hitters last season. His defense has been acceptable in the outfield over his career, but he posted a -2.6 UZR in center this past season.
We don’t know what kind of defense Cespedes will play in center, but we have already taken our best guess at what his bat will produce. Jack Moore noted that Cespedes was probably less of a risk than other Cuban-born players, and Clay Davenport projected Cespedes’ stats based on his performance in the Cuban league. Based on Davenport’s research, Cespedes should hit .260/.325/.457 in the majors. Those numbers would put him in line with the average center fielder, who hit .261/.325/.406 this past season. What sets Cespedes apart from the typical center fielder is his power potential. Few center fielders are capable of hitting 20+ home runs each season. Even if Cespedes is a slightly below-average defender, his bat should make him the best option to play center on the Marlins.
While Cespedes is likely the Marlins’ best option in center, it’s unclear how soon he’ll be able to make an impact in the majors. At 26, he’s much older than the typical prospect, but he’ll likely need time to adjust in the minors before he’s ready to take on major league pitchers. Cespedes will already have to adjust to numerous lifestyle changes once he begins his professional career in the US, which, I would imagine, can be very stressful. If the Marlins promote Cespedes before he’s ready and he struggles, that’s one more thing Cespedes will have to worry about.
Still, Cespedes’ potential makes him an intriguing candidate for most major league teams. The Marlins, in particular, are in need of a center fielder, and Cespedes looks like an ideal fit for them. Even if he’s not with the team initially, he’ll definitely make an impact at some point this season. The race for the NL crown should be tight this season, and signing Cespedes strengthens the Marlins’ chances to contend for the division.
It is a simple question.
What is sabermetrics?
Not the history of it, but what is it, right now? What is, in our nerdiest of lingoes, its derivative? Where is it pointing? What does it do?
Last Tuesday I created no little stir when I listed the 2012 saber teams, delineating them according to their perceived embrace of modern sabermetrics.
Today, I recognize I needed to take a step back and first define sabermetrics, because it became obvious quickly I did not have the same definition at heart as some of the readers and protesters who gathered outside my apartment.
I believe, and this is my belief — as researcher and a linguist — that sabermetrics is not statistics. The term itself has come to — or needs to — describe more than just on-base percentage, weighted runs created plus, fielding independent pitching, and wins above replacement.
Sabermetrics is the advanced study of baseball, not the burying of one’s head in numbers.
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Silly monkey, BRAINS ARE FOR ZOMBIES.
Casey Kotchman is in many ways a man without a home — a player equal parts under-appreciated and over-valued, who irks both old and new schools at the same time. Old school analysts say his defense is amazing, but they cannot quantify it, and in 2011, they claimed his cleared vision meant he finally learned how to aim the ball “where they ain’t,” but he’s still a .268 hitter with little power. The new school says he’s worth about 7.6 runs per season defensively, but worth ~1.1 WAR per 600 PAs — not good — and his BABIP was high 2011, so he should not be able to repeat his success.
Despite his inability to build a consistent following of fans in the baseball outsiders communities, Kotchman seems to have some insider communities very much interested in him, as Tom Tango points out:
Kotchman’s last four teams: Redsox, Mariners, Rays, Indians. Can we say that a team that signs Kotchman is saber-leaning?
Indeed, after spending five and a half seasons on the Angels’ and Braves’ rosters, Kotchman has begun to shuffle around with the Nerdz, most recently signing with the Cleveland Indians. It makes sense too — Kotchman’s lack of power keeps him cheap, and his strong defense keeps him amorphous for the old school teams, while the new schools might have different valuations on Kotchman, they can at least quantify his contributions and better know how he fits.
Then, on Monday, the Houston Astros signed Justin Ruggiano, long-time Tampa Bay Rays outfielder who was never good enough to stick on the Rays’ roster, but who possesses strong defensive chops and above average patience. His lack of power and ~.290 batting average, however, must make him a mystery — or at least an undesirable asset — to the old school teams.
Upon Ruggiano signing with the Astros, a once highly old school team, my reaction was all: “Welp, that’s one more team to compete with” — and then it occurred to me! No only have the Astros entered the realm of, so to speak, saber-minded organizations, but so have the long-backward Chicago Cubs.
Suddenly the league looks very different.
According to Diario Libre, the Chicago Cubs appear to be the leading in the chase to acquire Cuban defector and free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The intriguing center fielder spoke with the media on Monday night, sharing this unexpected tidbit:
“Of all the teams who have come, the most interested in me has been the Chicago Cubs,” Cespedes said Monday at the Quisqueya Stadium… “I dined a few times with them and talked a lot, but that does not mean it is certain I will sign with them. I’m just telling it like it is, they have shown more interest than others.”
(translated by Google Chrome and me, Brad)
If I had snuck into your house this morning and grabbed you by the shoulders before you reached a news device and asked you: “What team is making the biggest play for Cespedes right now?” I’m fairly confident you would have answered, “The Miami Marlins; I’m calling the police.”
But, nay, it is Chicago apparently. Much of this offseason, the Cubs have been playing the quintessential flirt, giggling as they trot around the country, driving prices up for all the free agents they don’t really want.
Well, maybe this Cespedes business is for real. And if it is, does it makes sense?
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We all knew that Ozzie Guillen was nuts. That Logan Morrison has been known to say some crazy things. That Carlos Zambrano has thrown out his share of zingers in the day. But none of them can hold a torch to Marlins team president David Samson:
“Aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there,” said Samson, characterizing the club’s planned pursuit [of Cuban ballplayer Yoenis Cespedes]. “We think he’s a perfect fit for us, but it has to be sane. [We’ve] expressing interest, going to visit, making it very clear to his representatives and to him and his family that we think he should not be anywhere other than Miami. As a Cuban and someone in the DR, it makes perfect sense. We have a perfect position for him to play. It would be great.” (Juan Rodriguez, Sun Sentinel)
When I first read that quote, my immediate thought was that it’s a perfect way to summarize the Marlins’ entire off-season: aggressive to the point of stupidity, but not quiiite there.
I don’t trust my memory, though, so is that true? Have the Marlins generally stopped themselves this year before crossing the line into poor decision making, or are have they been “aggressively stupid”? Let’s check it out, deal by deal.
Wine and cheese make for a delectable combo. But the two foods don’t age the same. Wine takes much longer to turn to vinegar than it does for your cheese to grow fuzzy green mold. That’s why wine is the one used in sayings by older men verifying their remaining virility.
Power, patience and contact are the components of a delectable (productive) hitter. And yet, like wine and cheese, it turns out that these different skills age differently. Ages 26 through 28 are often used to represent a hitter’s peak, but not all of their different faculties are at their apex in that age range. Let’s check the aging curves, once again courtesy stat guru Jeff Zimmerman.
When the Marlins signed Jose Reyes to a six-year, $106M contract, much of the attention shifted to the Marlins’ former shortstop, Hanley Ramirez. How would he respond to the free agent signing and the news that he would be shifting to third base?
Multiple reports began to surface:
Most recently, Hanley Ramirez will reportedly accept his move to third base and is excited to be a part of the 2012 Miami Marlins. Whether that is simply public relations posturing or his true attitude toward the positional change, nobody knows, but the move will improve the Marlins big league squad as a whole next season.
The dream NotGraphs roster has officially been assembled. On top of Logan Morrison and Ozzie Guillen together in the same clubhouse and on the same Twitter, Miami will now house the other noted Chicago fireball, Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs ate $15 million of Zambrano’s $18 million salary for the privilege to ship him down to Florida in exchange for former top prospect and current disappointment Chris Volstad.
With Miami building a contender this offseason through the acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle but still ostensibly looking up at Philadelphia and Atlanta for the NL East, the addition of Zambrano on the cheap could be what pushes the Marlins into the playoffs — that is, if he has anything left in the tank.
Let the Theo Epstein overhaul continue.
Matt Garza might have been the most popular name tossed around this off-season in Wrigleyville, but Carlos Zambrano was the first Chicago Cubs pitcher to be traded. After three injury riddled season — and a ton of headaches — the Cubs elected to deal the sole survivor of the Dusty Baker era to the Miami Marlins. In return, the Cubs get 25-year-old Chris Volstad. While Volstad hasn’t established himself as a top of the line pitcher in the majors, this deal might just work out in the Cubs’ favor.