Many people expected the Nationals to be legitimate contenders this season for the first time since moving to town, but I don’t think many expected them to have the second best record in baseball more than one-third of the way through the campaign. The Nats came into Wednesday’s action with a 37-23 record to go along with their +38 run differential, the fifth best mark in the game. They’ve relied on utterly dominant starting pitching so far, riding a staff that owns baseball’s best ERA (2.94), FIP (3.15), and WAR (8.3).

Great starting pitching only goes so far though, and Washington is really lacking in the run creation department. Their offense owns a .307 wOBA (sixth worst in MLB) and a 90 wRC+ (seventh worst) through their first 60 games, resulting in a 3.90 runs per game average that is the second lowest among teams with a .500+ winning percentage. Bryce Harper has been nothing short of brilliant so far — 153 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR through 172 PA — and Michael Morse’s recent return from the disabled list should provide a boost as well.

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Bryce Harper may have added to his legend with his game-winning hit in the Nationals’ 7-6 extra-innings victory over the Mets yesterday, but Ian Desmond’s night at the plate was more remarkable, according to Win Probability Added (WPA). Not only was Desmond’s game-tying double earlier in the final inning worth more WPA than Harper’s game-winning hit (.380 to .349), but his total WPA for the game was 1.017.

That’s right — Desmond’s contributions were worth more than one “win” according to WPA. Of course, that’s a bit of a deceptive way of saying it. WPA is measuring the shift in “probability” or “certainty” of winning given the relative score, inning, base/out state, and run environment. In a game like yesterday’s, with many ties that were broken, plus extra innings (any one of which could have been the final inning), there are even more opportunities for big WPA events. Thus, Desmond got additional big boosts from his game-tying single in the bottom of the eighth as well as his run-scoring reached on error in the bottom of the tenth.

How often do hitters end up with a single-game WPA over 1? Not often, but according to our database, it has happened 42 times in the regular season since 1974. In fact, Desmond’s big game is only the 35th highest score on the list. Each has a story, but here are three that I have picked out semi-randomly.

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The fact that Bryce Harper got to the Major Leagues at age 19 is pretty remarkable, as not many players are talented enough to earn the call to the bigs before they turn 20. The ones that do stick around usually don’t perform all that well, showing flashes of ability but getting overmatched on a more regular basis. Harper, though, is not only holding his own against big league pitchers, he’s threatening to put up the best offensive season by a 19-year-old in the history of baseball.

In his first 121 plate appearances of his career, Harper is hitting .286/.372/.514, good for a .376 wOBA and a 138 wRC+. Here’s where those numbers rank on the all-time top 10 for 19-year-olds:

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The Peter Bourjos trade rumors have started to circulate again. The primary discussant in the linked article is the Nationals, but the Royals, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays are also mentioned. With super-prospect Mike Trout in the majors, the Angels already having something of an outfield crunch and Bourjos flat-lining on offense so far this season, there is a surface rationality to the idea of trading him. Let’s briefly look at how Bourjos might fit into the plans of the teams allegedly interested in Bourjos before turning to the question of how this makes sense (or nonsense) for the Angels.

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It wasn’t the way the Nationals envisioned it, but nevertheless, Bryce Harper has graduated to The Show. With Ryan Zimmerman heading to the disabled list for the second straight season, the team was looking to put an impact bat, as well as perhaps shift the focus away from Zimmerman’s injury, and thus Harper gets the call.

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Last night, the Tampa Bay Rays connected for four home runs against Ervin Santana. It was the fifth time this year that a pitcher has allowed 4+ home runs in a single outing – the other notable hurlers to get bombed are Clay Buchholz (5 vs NYY), Josh Beckett (5 vs DET), Tommy Hunter (4 vs TOR), and Yovanni Gallardo (4 vs STL). Even as we head towards the third straight Year of the Pitcher, there are still nights where quality pitchers just don’t locate very well and pay the price for it.

That’s what makes what the Washington Nationals are currently doing so amazing. You’ve probably noticed that their pitching has been very good and has propelled them to a 13-4 record, the best mark in the National League. What you may not have heard is that the Nationals have a chance of establishing a new standard for home run prevention in a given month.

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After Tuesday night’s games, the Washington Nationals sit atop the National League East with a record of 9-3.  Much of the team’s early success is due to outstanding pitching from both starters and relievers, who have limited opponents to 30 runs in twelve games. Only the Rangers have allowed fewer runs so far, albeit in eleven games. The Phillies have given up 33 runs.

But as good as the Nationals’ pitching has been, the Nationals have distanced themselves from Philadelphia so far with better offense: 46 runs scored for the Nationals to only 35 runs scored for the Phillies. And it’s veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche who is powering the Nats offense so far.

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Stephen Strasburg did his job Monday night against the Astros, notching the win and a quality start. He threw six innings and held Houston to two runs on six hits and one walk while striking out five. It was a solid outing and any pitcher across the league would take it, but this was Stephen Strasburg pitching at home against one of the league’s lesser squads. The no-hitter watch was started as soon as Jordan Schafer stepped up to lead it off for the Astros. Given the circumstances, Strasburg’s performance looks surprisingly human.

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On Sunday night against the Washington Nationals, Jeff Samardzija pitched the game of his career. Not the game of his MLB career, but his professional baseball career. After coming to the Chicago Cubs in the fifth round of the 2006 draft, the former wide receiver prospect has never quite lived up to his substantial rookie contract (substantial for a rookie, that is).

But on Sunday night, in a season already treading down the expected and all-too-familiar road of disappointment, Samardzija gave Cubs fans an unfamiliar feeling of great hope. The long-locked, mustachioed twirler stymied hitters and did something few fans thought possible: He pitched 8.2 innings without walking a batter.

Is one start enough to know if a player has turned around his career? No. But there’s more evidence out there, and the signs are pointing up for Chicago’s 27-year-old bust.
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Dave Cameron laid out the methodology behind the rankings. Remember that the grading scale for each category is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago AL
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York NL
#19 – Los Angeles
#18 – Colorado
#17 – Miami
#16 – Arizona
#15 – Cincinnati
#14 – Chicago NL
#13 – Milwaukee
#12 – San Francisco

Washington’s 2011 Organizational Ranking – #24

2012 Outlook – 52 (T-15th)

The last time the Washington Nationals even sniffed a playoff berth was the first season they were the Washington Nationals: 2005. The move from Montreal was most unfortunate for those north of the border, but baseball in the District of Columbia was excited for baseball, as 2.7 million people filled the turnstiles to watch the Nationals. And they competed, holding first place for 53 games. Washington was even within three games of a wild card slot as late as September 17th, but a 4-9 finish doomed the first Nationals to an 81-81 final record. It is still the best effort the former Expos have managed.

No longer is it a question of if the Nationals can get over the .500 hump but when they will. Last year’s squad finished at 80-81 despite losing Stephen Strasburg for nearly the entire season and Ryan Zimmerman — the only holdover from that 2005 squad — played just 101 games. Bryce Harper time is on the horizon and could come as soon as this season. Mike Morse showed great potential as a power hitter and Wilson Ramos is a promising young catcher. There’s even a solid rotation behind Strasburg, featuring fellow youngster Jordan Zimmermann, blockbuster trade target Gio Gonzalez and free agent get Edwin Jackson. The bullpen headlined by Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard is strong as well. There’s a lot to like about this 2012 Washington Nationals team.

That said, they play in one of baseball’s deepest divisions and will have to compete with the Phillies, Braves and Marlins for NL East honors, and this is not a team without holes. Ian Desmond has struggled at shortstop for two years in a row. An Opening Day outfield of Roger Bernadina, Rick Ankiel and Jayson Werth (thanks to Morse’s injury) contains maybe one starter on a typical playoff roster, and Adam LaRoche’s best days are well behind him. These shortcomings will probably be too much for the Nationals to overcome in the National League’s most competitive division.

2013+ Outlook – 55 (T-9th)

The Nationals won’t have a young lineup this season — between Jayson Werth, Rick Ankiel, Adam LaRoche, Mark DeRosa and Xavier Nady, there’s plenty of age to go around. But almost all of the key pieces are 27 or younger — Ryan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Drew Storen, Henry Clippard Henry Rodriguez, and Clippard. This is a core of young, cost-controlled players who will define the franchise for at least a few more years.

And then there’s the fruits of the early draft picks the Nationals have had thanks to their poor performances over the last few years. A few of those fruits went over to the Athletics in exchange for Gio Gonzalez, and so Washington’s farm system no longer showcases the depth it did in recent years. Still, it’s nearly impossible to beat what the Natoinals have at the top in Bryce Harper and 2011 first rounders Anthony Rendon and Alex Meyer.

The lack of depth is one thing that pushes the Nationals’ ranking down to merely ninth, but if some of their lesser prospects — think Steve Lombardozzi or Destin Hood, among others — can develop into useful parts at the major league level, they’ll be able to produce one of the majors’ deepest young teams over the next three seasons.

Financial Resources – 54 (T-8th)

The Nationals haven’t been a big-payroll club since they’ve moved from Montreal — where revenues were ever dwindling along with the Olympic Stadium crowds — but salaries in the nation’s capital are on the rise. The Nationals have $83 million in obligations for 2012 according to Cot’s Contracts, up $29 million from just five years ago. They’ll need to keep increasing payroll in order to retain all the young talent on hand — they’ve already handed out a $100 million extension to Ryan Zimmerman to go with Jayson Werth’s $121 million deal.

Luckily, they’ll have some time. Desmond, Storen, Espinosa and Ramos haven’t even hit arbitration yet. Zimmermann and Clippard are just in their first season. Strasburg is already paid on a major league deal — $4.875 million for this season — but will have four seasons of arbitration (likely a Super Two in 2013) remaining. Gonzalez also is paid on an arbitration scale in his five year, $42 million deal — it doesn’t hit eight figures until 2015.

With Forbes ranking the Nationals as the 16th-most valuable franchise in baseball — largely due to market size — there’s reason to believe the Nationals can get the revenue they’ll need to keep a significant portion of this core around. Especially if they start winning.

Baseball Operations – 46 (T-20th)

Mike Rizzo has brought in one big time free agent, that of course being Jayson Werth and his massive contract. As the Nationals were also in on Mark Teixeira, it wouldn’t surprise if the move was a mandate from ownership to bring in a highly visible free agent.

His action in free agency has been otherwise minimal — small veteran pieces like Rick Ankiel and Ivan Rodriguez and Chien-Ming Wang that hardly give us enough of a look to truly judge his talent evaluating abilities. He’s also made one huge trade, sending four top prospects out for Gio Gonzalez. It is a move that has been met with mixed reactions, as Gonzalez can be a polarizing pitcher. Yes, he’s been excellent the last two years, particularly in the lens of ERA, but it’s impossible to ignore his propensity for the walk. Again, Rizzo hasn’t really made enough moves for us to get to know him well.

In the other aspect, drafting, Rizzo and the Nationals have done well with the cards dealt to them, getting Stephen Strasburg to the majors and infusing the organization with top talent like Harper and Rendon. The tougher tests will come as the Nationals have to draft in the double digits in the first round, but prior to the Gonzalez deal the Nationals had developed a deep system thanks to players beyond those early draft picks like Derek Norris and A.J. Cole (both fourth round picks).

The Werth contract will be a black mark on Rizzo until (and perhaps beyond) the time the Nationals are a winning franchise. Part of that is simply because his team hasn’t had to make many hard decisions with Rizzo in the front office. As the Nationals approach relevancy on the field, Rizzo will need to prove the Werth deal was an exception, not the rule.