This post isn’t going to be overly long, because the data mostly speaks for itself.

One of the primary traits that scouts look for in a catcher is a strong throwing arm, and catchers who can throw out opposing base stealers are often considered to be good defenders regardless of what else they do behind the plate. And, there’s no question that creating outs and intimidating runners into staying put is a useful skill, and a catcher who can shut down the running game can add value to his team.

However, this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates are proving just how small a part of overall run prevention that throwing out runners actually is. Here are the leaderboards for National League teams in opposing SB/CS:

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This might seem like a weird time to be writing an article about James Shields experiencing a breakout season, given that his 3.95 ERA this season is over a run higher than the 2.82 mark he posted last year. From a traditional standpoint, if Shields made an ace like leap, it was last season, and this year he’s simply regressing back to something less than ace-worthiness.

But, of course, I’m not exactly a big fan of ERA, especially when it comes to evaluating changes in pitcher performance. There are so many variables in ERA that a pitcher has little or no control over, and evaluating a pitcher by the amount of “earned runs” (whatever that means) he allows often causes us to miss real changes that do tell us something about what we should expect in the future. That looks to be the case with James Shields right now.

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Godzilla’s back, and there’s gonna be trouble.

Hideki Matsui, after a somewhat* underwhelming display in Triple-A, will join the Tampa Bay Rays tonight as they take on the Chicago White Sox at home. Some might suspect the move has to do with Monday afternoon’s outing against the White Sox in which Chris Sale struck out 15 Rays hitters — against a lineup featuring backup catcher Jose Lobaton as the DH, minor league veteran Rich Thompson playing left field, and a menagerie of infielders who started the season in the minors or the bench.

*I say somewhat because he was still hitting the ball well.

But the Rays front office rarely works hastily, and in fact Matsui’s callup is somewhat late. The team had previously suggested Matsui would arrive for the preceding Red Sox series, but instead delayed that transaction.

With the move, utility outfielder Stephen Vogt will likely return to the minors and will have to wait a little longer for his first major league hit or walk (he has 17 PAs but not yet reached even first base). How does Matsui fit on this Rays team — a team that already features five left-handed hitters? The answer is not fully clear, but there’s going to be a problem somewhere.
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Fernando Rodney’s 2012 season is redefining relief domination. The veteran flamethrower is turning into the real life version of Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn, transforming from a wild pitcher who never harnessed his stuff into one of the surest ninth innings in baseball. Rodney will carry a 38 FIP- and an incredible 11 ERA- into his next appearance. It’s only 22.2 innings, but Rodney would need to walk 25 batters and allow 15 runs in his next 9.1 innings to equal his totals from 32 innings last season.

Ricky Vaughn didn’t find the strike zone until manager Lou Brown discovered that his fireballer needed glasses. It’s unclear if Joe Maddon, pitching coach Jim Hickey or some other Rays coach is the Lou Brown in Rodney’s story, but Rodney definitely has his own version of Vaughn’s glasses this season. Observe, Rodney’s release point in 2012, compared to 2011:

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In January, the Tampa Bay Rays signed 33-year-old Luke Scott to a one-year, $5M contract (plus a club option for 2013) to serve as the team’s primary designated hitter.

He struggled last season with the Baltimore Orioles, only hitting .220/.301/.402 and failing to be at least a one-win player for the first time since his rookie season in 2005. The vast majority of his struggles, however, could be explained away by his mid-season shoulder surgery, which he underwent to repair a torn labrum. Finally healthy, the Rays looked to capitalize on an undervalued asset, hoping Scott would regain his previous form and produce somewhere around his career-average wOBA of .358.

This year, after a torrid start that saw him compile a .380 wOBA with eleven extra-base hits in the month of April, things have begun to cool off. He has hit .219/.286/.384 in the month of May, and his current .331 wOBA ranks below average amongst league DHs, who average a .347 wOBA on the year thus far.

Some of his drop off in May can be attributed to a .224 BABIP. In fact, his year-to-date BABIP of .240 is 52-points below his career average. The Tampa Bay Rays should expect that number to climb, especially since his 18.8% line drive rate has been slightly better than his career average. A few more balls in play find the outfield grass, rather than an outfielder’s glove, and his production should no longer be below average for the designated hitter position.

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Carlos Pena led off last night. Carlos Pena led off for the first time in his career last night. Carlos Pena led off, despite averaging about two stolen bases per season and going against one old-school adage (speed at the top!) even as he fits another (second basemen bat second!).

Just how rare was the occurrence, though? And given the current state of the Rays, was it a good idea?

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“In the end,” Thompson wrote, “very few people will remember anything I have done as a baseball player. But hopefully they will remember what kind of person and teammate I am.”

— the Philadelphia Inquirer

For those who missed the Rays and Red Sox game last night, here’s the update: In the bottom of the eighth, moments before a blood-souring hit-by-pitch to Will Rhymes, pinch runner Rich Thompson took over for Luke Scott at second base. Much of the audience was probably — and perhaps rightly — focused on Rhymes.

But at the same time, Thompson standing at second was a spectacle in itself.
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Yesterday, it took Los Angeles Dodgers manager Clint Hurdle Don Mattingly* approximately 40 seconds — depending on where you start and stop your timer — to argue The Worst Call of the Season. Meanwhile, in St. Louis, it took the umpiring crew about 2 minutes and 50 seconds to gather in the infield, discuss Carlos Beltran’s hit, reconvene in their underground video review chamber, and then return to announce a home run.

* All white guys look the same to me.

Getting the calls wrong in baseball takes time. Managers — depending on their personality, the game situation, and the offense — take different amounts of time arguing both bad and good calls. The arguing, for the most part, exists because of uncertainty. My lip-reading skills inform me most arguments follow this general pattern:

Manager: “Did you really see X event?”

Umpire: “Most certainly did I see X event.”

Manager: “That statement you just made right there is tantamount to the excrement of bovines.”

Umpire: “You are ejected.”

Recent evidence suggests, however, that despite these conflicts resulting from close calls, instant replays still take more time than good ol’ fashioned shout-spittin’ matches.

Evidence furthermore suggests that in the time it takes to get in a healthy workout, a normal person could empty approximately ten Squeeze Cheese cans directly into his or her porcine gullet.

Which is to say: Quicker is not always better.

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Evan Longoria has a partially torn hamstring. He’ll miss at least four weeks and as many as eight while he rehabs the injury. His team is left with a slim four-and-a-half game lead on last-place Boston and two months without their star. Their internal options may not seem scintillating, but they could do just enough… provided Longoria can return healthy.

First, let’s set the time frame involved. If we assume the hamstring is not completely torn and it’s not a grade three hamstring situation, we can use eight weeks as a worst-case scenario. If we remove tears and surgeries from the database and average up the 186 mentions of ‘hamstring strain’ and ‘thigh strain’ since 2002 from Jeff Zimmerman’s database, we get an average of 28 days missed. That includes all grades of non-completely-torn hamstring-type injuries, and this one seems somewhat severe. Let’s use four weeks as the best-case scenario.

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Initiate sleuthing mode!

On Monday afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Boston Red Sox 1-0 in a game ended with a called strike three on to Cody Ross. Mr. Ross disagreed with that particular call and felt emboldened to express his sentiments by flipping his bat to the ground and then carefully, deliberately smash his helmet on home plate — making a pop loud enough to hear on the television broadcast.

Scandal! The stadium, the Twitter, the airwaves, the everything contracted Strike Zone Fever! Was it a strike? Was it a ball? Was it a fair call? Did Molina frame it, or had the ump — Larry Vanover — called it all day?

The answer is a little bit of everything, but mostly: Yes, the umpire called a “fair” zone.

Allow me to explain.
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