Join me! The rabbit hole is suspiciously warm.

The Tampa Bay Rays are now down 1-2 in the ALDS, placing their hopes for a Rangers rout on the shoulders of rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. The so-called Hellboy takes the mound at 2:07 p.m. ET today, facing Rangers lefty Matt Harrison.

The match-up, to say the least, favors the Rangers. Not only does Harrison have the edge in FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.94), he has the added bonus of a seemingly normal BABIP (.290) and LOB% (72.3%). Hellickson has only an ERA edge (2.95); the rest suggests impending doom: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, .223 BABIP, and 82.0% LOB%.

Well, Hellickson does have at least one major thing going for him: A serious and unusual strikeout regression.
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Throughout the Rangers-Rays series so far, one of the overriding narratives has been, “This Rangers offense is so good, can the Rays possibly contain them?” And unlike other points the media loves to harp on, this is a fair question; the Rangers do have one of the most potent offenses in the majors (.348 wOBA, 2nd best overall), and their lineup is chock full of dangerous power hitters (210 home runs, 2nd most in majors). Meanwhile, the Rays have a strong pitching staff in James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and Matt Moore, so the drama creates itself; power versus power, which side will win?

But if you’re a loyal FanGraphs reader, you’re probably already asking yourself a very different question: “Wait, what about Park Factors?” It’s one thing to look at a team’s raw offensive numbers and declare that they have a dominant lineup, but you always have to consider the context. The Ballpark in Arlington is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors, so maybe their offense is overrated? But no, even when you adjust for those effects, the Rangers still have an offense 13% better than league average — tied with the Yankees for 2nd best in the majors.

Yet, now that the action is moving from Arlington to St. Petersburg, everyone harping on the Rangers’ offense is in for a surprise. For the next two games of this series, these two teams are going to be much more evenly matched on offense than most people assume. The reason why? Tropicana Field.

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For being an exact rematch of last year’s ALDS, the roles of the Rays and Rangers have been reversed since last season. Last year, the Rays were the favorites; they were loaded with talent in Matt Garza, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena, and a pre-Boston Carl Crawford. They won 96 games and beat out the Yankees for the AL East title, while the Rangers won 90 games and reached the postseason for the first time in over a decade. The Rangers were underdogs, but underdogs with a dominant starting rotation and a gutsy, scrappy* attitude.

*Yeah, I just used scrappy in FanGraphs post. I should probably hand in my resignation now.

This season, though, it’s the Rangers who enter the postseason having won 96 games, and they are undoubtedly the favorites in this series. While Vegas has the two teams as a close matchup — odds for the pennant: Rays 4/1; Rangers 13/4 — the Rangers simply have the better team here. They have one of the best offenses in the majors (.348 wOBA), and they are very balanced team, good against both righties and lefties. Their starting pitching staff shouldn’t be overlooked, as they have three starters with sub-4 ERAs and FIPs in C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison. They aren’t going to be an easy team to walk through.

Meanwhile, the Rays have a mediocre offense (.320 wOBA) and have been carried into the postseason primarily on the wings of their pitching (3.58 ERA, 4.03 FIP) and defense (2nd in majors in UZR, 1st in DRS). They got hot down the stretch, going 17-10 in September and beating up on the Yankees and Red Sox, so this year they’re the club with the “intangibles” going for them.

But let’s dig in a bit deeper and take a look at some of the potential key matchups on either side. Both clubs have hidden strengths that could prove to be the deciding factor in the series.

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Episode Eighty-Seven
In which accounts and descriptions abound.

Headlines
The Story of the Rays’ Game 162 — Told by People Who Were There!

Featuring
Mike Axisa, FanGraphs and River Ave Blues
Tommy Rancel, FanGraphs and ESPN 1040 Tampa

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 30 min. play time.)

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Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.

Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min. play time.)

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As Bradley Woodrum detailed earlier today, much went into putting the Rays into the postseason this year, and if they had just a little less of any one ingredient, they’d probably be packing their bags right now — or at least would be locked and loaded for the proverbial Game 163. But they made it, so let’s examine how they will move forward.

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From Dirk Hayhurst’s Twitter:

“You know what would be really cool…”

~Baseball Gods, right before THIS all happened.

They’re calling it “Wild Wednesday,” and it was, but it was also Wild Twenty-Aught-Eleven. The Tampa Bay Rays closed the books on their 2011 campaign with one of the craziest nights in baseball history and one of the most absurd paths to the postseason ever.

At 12:03 a.m. ET this morning, Robert Andino hit a sinking line drive to left field off Jonathon Papelbon. Carl Crawford charged the ball, but it popped off his glove and Nolan Reimold dove onto home plate, giving the Orioles a 4-3 win. The first Orioles player to reach Andino chest-bumped him to the ground — maybe knocking the wind out of him — as the cameras watched the Baltimore bench fall onto his seemingly-frightened and breathless face.

At 12:05 a.m., Evan Longoria reached out — almost into the other batter’s box — to foul off a slider from New York Yankees pitcher Scott Proctor, holding the count at two balls, two strikes. Longoria exhaled deeply, puffing his cheeks like a trombone player, as Scott Proctor wound for the next pitch. It was a fastball away that got lost and asked Longo for directions.

“Two-two and line SHOT! DOWN THE LEFT FIELD LIIIIINE! THAT BALL IS GONE!!!” Rays television announcer Dewayne Staats called, presumably leaning out of the booth to watch as Longoria’s 31st homer ricocheted around behind the Crawford Cutout — a low wall added so then-Ray Carl Crawford could rob a few extra home runs.

Last night’s (and this morning’s) Rays game was beyond spectacular (for non-Red Sox fans, that is; my condolences to the northeast). It was parts Spring Training game (with the parade of Yankees pitchers), parts Little League World Series (with the Rays using nearly the entirety of their bench in key roles), and all parts unbelievable.

The 2011 Rays season has shown that though baseball is about probabilities, it is probabilities with replacement — truly any event can occur with the very next pitch, even if it happened just a few innings ago — or if it has never happened before.
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Below, you will find a graph detailing the probabilities that the Rays or the Red Sox would represent the American League as the Wild Card as the wild night of September 28th, 2011 progressed, based on Win Probability. Although we could never truly quantify whatever it was that happened yesterday, let these numbers be a handy guide as we highlight 16 of the key moments (with video links when possible) that ultimately resulted in the craziest night — and the craziest five minutes — in my baseball life and probably in baseball history.

Odds are calculated assuming a 50% win probability in a one-game playoff.

Click to embiggen as we dive into the night that was.

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Going into tonight’s action, the common assumptions seems to be that the Yankees are going to coast on into the playoffs. They have already clinched the division and home field advantage, and since they got most of their regular starters and bullpen arms work yesterday, they have little incentive to play their hardest on Wednesday night. Why work yourselves hard in a meaningless game? Why risk injuries to your players when you have nothing to play for?

But I’m not sure that the predominating narrative is correct in this case. Joe Girardi has already said that he’s planning on starting many of his regulars tonight — although who knows how long he’ll keep them in the game — and he seems to be practicing some “gamesmanship” by choosing not to announce his starter until closer to game time. Could it be that the Yankees are treating tonight’s game more seriously than many people are assuming?

If they are, I have to tip my cap to the Yanks for looking past their history with the Red Sox and realizing the larger fact: it’s in their own best interest if the Red Sox to make the playoffs.

That’s right, Yankees fans. As horrible as it may sound, you should probably be rooting for the Red Sox tonight.

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For the past three season, James Shields and David Price have battled it out for the status of ace of the Rays’ staff. The title has flopped back and forth between the two of them, with Price gaining the upper-hand in 2010 but relinquishing his hold slightly this season, but there’s one aspect of the game that Shields has always trumped Price in: nicknames.

Shields has seemingly rotated through a new nickname each season. He was “Big Game James” after his performance in the postseason in 2008, and then christened “Yields” in 2010 due to his homer-happy tendencies; this season, he’s been dubbed “Juego G” due to his complete game prowess.* And Price? He’s never had a nickname that stuck for long, besides for a brief bit of time in 2008 when he was lovingly known as Velociraptor Jesus.

But after improving himself as a pitcher for the third straight season — just look at the trend in his FIP and SIERA scores — it’s about time Price was rewarded with a nickname. And so, without further ado, I’d like to bestow upon Price the much-fought-after nickname “Tinkerbell”.

And before you ask, no, I’m not trying to cast aspersions about Price’s manhood. The nickname simply fits. Price can do magical things on the mound with the baseball, but more than that, he tinkers with his pitch selection more than any other pitcher I know. Even though he was selected #1 in the 2007 Draft and has since developed into an ace starter, Price has changed his pitch repertoire and selection multiple, multiple times since first reaching the majors. It’s as though he has this compulsive urge to keep innovating and adapting….or he just gets bored really quickly.

So how exactly has Price changed over the years? What’s his current pitch selection, and how does he attack hitters now? Let’s take a look.

*Don’t ask me to explain why. It just is.

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