The American League Most Valuable Player Award is going to be announced at 2:00 pm today, and there’s a pretty good chance that Justin Verlander is going to become just the 10th player to win both the Cy Young and MVP in the same year. Unfortunately, the reasons that Verlander is probably the favorite to win the award aren’t great – the two best position players both played for teams who failed to make the playoffs, and voters are historically preferential to players who came from teams who played in October. He’s also a stronger candidate to actually win the award because of his 24 victories, and it is too bad that pitcher wins are still hanging on to some influence.

However, you don’t have to buy into the traditional criteria for MVP voting to cast a ballot in favor of Justin Verlander. Even without some tortured logic about rewarding a player for the performance of his teammates, a strong case can be made for Verlander as the most valuable player in the American League in 2011.

Let’s start off with the elephant in the room: with how we calculate WAR here on FanGraphs, Verlander’s +7.0 season is pretty far behind both Jacoby Ellsbury (+9.4) and Jose Bautista (+8.3), so an argument for Verlander seems to require a rejection of FanGraphs WAR, right? I would suggest that it does not. We think WAR is a great tool that has helped push forward the understanding of the relative value of players with very different skills, but we’ve never suggested that it’s perfect or entirely comprehensive.

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On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

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October is the month. October is the month you have to survive if you are a general manager of a losing team. Survive that month and your chances of making it through another season skyrocket. In fact, looking through the prism of past firings, the distance between October (Andy MacPhail) and November (Bill Smith) is greater than a mere sum of the days.

Comb through the Baseball America executive database and add in the missing information, and you’ve got something like 59 general manager firings since 1950. That might not seem like a large sample, but a firing is a rare occurrence. Many general managers come to the end of a contract on a flagging team and are allowed to leave. Most others resign if the writing is on the wall. A firing suggests a difference in opinion about the team. It’s a jarring, rare moment, born of conflict.

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Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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I would like to begin with an apology to Bud Selig and Major League Baseball. I realize that Commissioner Selig does not want any big announcements this week that would take away from the glory of the World Series, but I just can’t help myself. I have too much brewing in the Junk Stat Laboratory, and if I don’t export some of this stuff, a major explosion could be in the works — bits of laptop, brain matter, and SQL code everywhere. So today we begin with what some (read: almost no one) would say is the most “prestigious” of my made-up, junk-stat-based, year-end awards. It recognizes the hitter whose RBI total most exaggerates his actual offensive contribution: the Joe Carter–Tony Batista award.

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The playoffs often cultivate an ‘anything goes’ environment, where aces like Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee become legitimate bullpen options and starters get lifted before the fifth inning ends for a more favorable matchup. In a sense, playoff rules trump what fans grow accustomed to during the regular season as every single game is of tremendous importance. While many managers alter their mindsets to treat each playoff game as a must-win, the 2011 postseason has shown that the more holistic view of the series can lead to better decision-making processes.

Last week, Dave Cameron discussed Jim Leyland’s refusal to use Justin Verlander in Game Four of the Championship Series. Leyland’s quotes — mainly that using Rick Porcello over Verlander was a no-brainer, or that not using his ace was the best thing for the team — drew significant ire but ultimately made sense. Verlander pitching on short rest would reduce his effectiveness, and the Tigers still needed to win at least two games after that outing. Pitching him on short rest would have been an example of managing for the present as opposed to the future.

Though that type of approach is traditionally more optimal, especially in a five-game division series, it makes little sense in the latter playoff rounds.

Leyland wasn’t alone in that line of thinking, as both Ron Roenicke and Tony LaRussa made decisions based on playoff series, as a whole, instead of a collection of immensely important individual games.

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Brandon Inge has been a Detroit Tiger for life. The Tigers drafted Inge in 1998 and he made his major-league debut with the team three years later. Inge came up as a catcher but transitioned to third base in 2004, when Ivan Rodriguez landed in Detroit.

Inge’s defense at the hot corner has been consistently very good, according to UZR/150, aside from 2004, his first season there. And it was his defense that kept Inge in the Tigers lineup. Inge’s career slash is a paltry .235/.305/.388 with a career wOBA of .301 and wRC+ of 81.

This season, Inge couldn’t sustain even his low career offensive numbers. His defense suffered, as well. And so on July 20, the Tigers designated Inge for assignment. Most people, including manager Jim Leyland, thought it was the end of the road for the 34-year-old.

No other team showed interest. The Tigers still owed him about $7 million on the two-year/$11.5 million deal he signed before this season. Inge could have taken the money and gone home. But he didn’t.

Instead, Inge reported to the Toledo Mudhens, the Tigers’ AAA affiliate. In 29 games, Inge batted .287/.389/.519 and hit seven home runs. The Tigers recalled him in late August.

Inge has played in nine of the Tigers’ ten postseason games. In 18 at-bats through Thursday’s game, he’s hitting .333/.455/.556. In Wednesday’s game against the Rangers, Inge hit this game-tying home run off previously-unhittable Alexi Ogando in the seventh. Yes, the Tigers lost the game, but it wasn’t because of Inge. On Thursday, with the bases loaded and one out for the Rangers in the top of the sixth inning, Inge started the 5-3 double play to end the Rangers’ threat. The Tigers then scored four runs in the bottom of the inning to take the lead 6-2. The Tigers won the game, sending the series back to Texas, in no small part due to the efforts of Inge.

Inge’s rare feat?

Based on my research, Inge appears to be the only player in the past 10 years with more than five years of major-league service who was designated for assignment, then was recalled by the major-league team that sent him down and then went on to play a significant role in the postseason.

Let me explain a bit about my research, because figuring this out wasn’t easy.

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The Rangers have had their fair sure of playoff heroes this year. After all, it takes more than one player to facilitate a 6-2 run against two of the league’s best teams. But there have been a select few players keying the Rangers’ success in October. Nelson Cruz has been the guiding light so far, with the walk-off grand slam in Game Two and the throw to nab Miguel Cabrera at the plate as well as the three-run home run to bury the Tigers in Game Four. Neftali Feliz and Alexi Ogando have been fantastic in relief, throwing nine combined innings with only one run allowed and a whopping 13 strikeouts. Mike Napoli had the game-winning hit on Wednesday.

Those are all names people expected to propel the Rangers to victory. But with the exception of Cruz, one could make the argument that Scott Feldman has been more crucial to the Rangers’ ALCS success. His 5.1 innings pitched trail only Colby Lewis, who had a very mediocre start in Game Three, the Tigers’ only victory so far. Feldman also has a stellar +0.45 WPA in this time, trailing only Feliz among pitchers and actually outpacing Cruz’s contribution with the bat (+0.37), only falling behind after we add in Cruz’s fantastic throw, which was worth roughly +0.36 WPA according to The Hardball Times’s WPA calculator.

Scott Feldman was a 17-game winner two years ago (for all that matters), but he failed to make an impact in 2010 and spent much of 2011 injured. How is he now the relief ace pacing the Rangers through the ALCS?

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Rick Porcello wasn’t given much of a chance. With the Detroit Tigers down 2-1 heading into last night’s game, many wondered whether Jim Leyland should throw Justin Verlander on short rest instead of the 22-year-old Porcello. Porcello has been somewhat of an enigma since entering the league. Though he was widely considered one of the best pitching prospect in his draft class — an ace with a true strikeout curveball — he’s turned into more of a back-end starter in the big leagues. Despite Porcello’s struggles in the majors, Leyland stuck to his guns and turned to Porcello to even the series. Though the Tigers failed to win the game, Porcello didn’t let his manager — or his team — down.
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The Dude Walks Alone.

And on we move to Game Four of the ALCS: Matt Harrison vs. Rick Porcello.

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