Today’s edition of One Night Only contains:
1. Previews of two games, with sexy, updated Team NERD scores and sexy, updated ZiPS projections.
2. Notes on a third game you shouldn’t watch.
3. A poll on what’s the most depressing thing about the current iteration of the Twins.
Last week, we asked whether the Red Sox slow start was cause for concern, and concluded that while their struggles had taken away a presumed talent advantage in the race for the AL East, they were still likely a playoff team and could stay the course until the ship righted itself. But I’m not sure things are so rosy in Minnesota, where it might be time to sound the alarm.
It’s not just the Twins 4-8 start and early three game deficit to the White Sox that’s the problem – it’s all the issues associated with their roster that have arisen since opening day. As Joe wrote yesterday, Francisco Liriano’s struggles are a legitimate concern, as his velocity is down and he’s looked nothing like the pitcher who led the American League in xFIP a year ago. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is on the DL with a broken fibula, and the Twins weren’t exactly deep up the middle to begin with. And now news comes that Joe Mauer is going on the disabled list with “bilateral leg weakness”, an unusual diagnosis and one that leaves an open-ended time frame for his return.
The Twins already looked to have some flaws heading into the season; the lineup was still too left-handed, nearly the entire infield offered uncertain productivity, and they were essentially trying to replace the entirety of their bullpen from last year. The Twins didn’t enter the season with much of a margin for error, but a disastrous first two weeks of the season have left them with a hole to climb out of and a smaller shovel than they expected. Mauer is the guy who makes this whole thing work, and if he’s going to be sidelined for more than a couple of weeks, the Twins are legitimately in trouble. Minnesota’s 2011 season could be slipping away before it ever really gets started, and unfortunately, that might be the least of their worries right now.
By the time he completed his third start in 2010, Francisco Liriano was already getting national headlines. He had thrown 21 innings, striking out 17, and allowing just three runs. After a disappointing return to the mound in 2009, it appeared that the Liriano we had seen in 2007, or at least some facsimile thereof, was on his way back. This year Liriano is making national headlines, and again he has people comparing him to a previous incarnation. Only this time it has been negative headlines, and the connection has been to his 2009 self. Plenty has gone wrong in the early going for the 2010 FIP and xFIP leader, and no, it probably doesn’t have much to do with pitching to contact.
It used to be that the problems with the Twins roster stemmed mainly from their frugality. These days, thanks in part to their shiny new ballpark and recent playoff appearances, the Twins are spending with the big boys, but the roster still has uncertainties. Mo money, mo problems indeed. Despite Justin Morneau’s return to the field yesterday, it still may not be possible to know how his season will unfold. In addition to Morneau’s plight, shortstop is a question, the Twins may be incorrectly surmising who are their five best starters and the bullpen may have more unknowns than even Liam Neeson could solve. However, while these are not minor concerns, they don’t outweigh the multitude of positives the Twins have on the ledger heading into 2011, and another AL Central title is definitely within reach.
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