Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.
Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!
Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
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At the season’s outset, we noted in our Tigers Season Preview that the team had a good front two in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but there was a drop off after that. The front office seemed to agree, as they went hunting for pitching at the deadline, and came up with possibly the biggest steal of the deadline in Doug Fister, who has been so brilliant since coming to the Motor City that he has slid into the number-two spot. At this point, you could call both the Tigers’ hitting (their team wRC+ ranks fourth) and its pitching underrated, but what you can’t call them is losers. They were the first team in the American League to clinch their division. It was their first division pennant since 1987, back in the good old days when Jack Morris was still pitching to the score. As they were the first to clinch, they will be the first of the four playoff teams who I will examine as we lead in to the playoffs.
For most of his career, Doug Fister has been baseball’s version of Rodney Dangerfield. Coming up through the minor leagues, Fister was simply one of a legion of strike-throwing no-stuff guys, and his lack of velocity or anything resembling an out pitch made him more of an afterthought than a prospect. He made it to the majors in the second half of the 2009 season, but his combination of 88 MPH fastballs and a home run problem did nothing to tear down the image of a guy who just threw too many hittable strikes.
But if you look beyond the high-ish HR/FB rate he posted in his rookie year, Fister was actually pretty decent in his first go-around in the Major Leagues. Despite topping out at 90 with his fastball, he got enough leverage on the pitch to generate a decent amount of ground balls. He also threw a well-above average changeup that helped him keep left-handed hitters at bay and generate some swinging strikes, giving him a solid 2.4 K/BB ratio despite pedestrian stuff. It all added up to a 4.43 xFIP, a league average mark for a 2009 AL pitcher.
Michael Young won’t go away.
He’s 34 years old. He’s a bad defender pretty much anywhere on the diamond. He doesn’t walk much or hit for exceptional power. His biannual off-season whining when he’s moved to accommodate a superior fielder has damaged his reputation. (Remember “misled and manipulated?” Good times.) But, still, Young keeps on hitting.
As Joe Pawlikowski recently noted, Young — and his 3.6 WAR (on the back of his .372 wOBA — has been key for the American League West-leading Rangers, who’ve endured injuries to Young’s third-base replacement, Adrian Beltre, and to outfielders Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. His playing time didn’t directly replace Hamilton’s or Cruz’s, but Young’s surprisingly strong offensive contribution (his 132 wRC+ is his best since 2005) has helped make up for what the team lost. The Rangers aren’t a lock for the playoffs yet, but they’re getting close, and Young has been a big part of that.
Which is exactly why this post so untimely: What should happen with Young in the off-season?
During last night’s 2-1, extra innings classic between Detroit and Kansas City, something surprising jumped out at me. Well, it jumped out at me after I recovered from Doug Fister somehow putting up four wins above replacement this season, being perfect through six, and having a thrilling duel with the Royals’ Jeff Francis. (By the way, a belated HAPPY FRANCIS DAY to my fellow Royals fans. Or is it MERRY JEFFMAS?). Delmon Young was hitting third. And it wasn’t just a one game thing, or even a platoon strategy with the Tigers facing a lefty. Nope, it’s been happening every game since the Tigers acquired Young from the Twins earlier this month. Seriously, has Jim Leyland become the real Motor City Madman?
Justin Verlander won his 20th game Saturday against the Minnesota Twins. Eric Seidman already covered his MVP candidacy this morning, and I have to agree that we should probably cool down on it a little bit. I’m sure my opinion surprises absolutely nobody — we here at FanGraphs can’t stand pitcher wins, and I’m no different.
However, as Eric mentioned, Verlander might have a shot at 25 victories this season. And as heartless and cold and robotic as I may seem on the outside, even I can recognize the weight of that accomplishment. It hasn’t been done since Bob Welch was led by the Oakland Athletics to a 27-win season in 1990 — and I choose these words for a reason. Welch wasn’t actually that great that year, posting a sub-2.0 K/BB ratio, a FIP above 4.00, and a 2.95 ERA which was only five points lower than the ERA which brought him a 17-win season the year before. But with a little help from his friends, Welch put together the winningest season we’ve seen in two decades. Verlander has 20 wins and only six starts (maybe only five) left, so he won’t catch Welch this year. But can he, realistically, get to 25 and put a name to the accomplishment that actually deserves it?
Justin Verlander notched win No. 20 this past weekend. With the victory, he became the season’s first to reach the milestone, and perhaps most impressively, the first AL pitcher to hit the 20-win mark through August since Roger Clemens did it in 1997 with Toronto.
Combine factoids like this with his tremendous numbers so far, and it’s easy to see why many are boarding the Verlander-for-Cy Young Award bandwagon. And that might just be the start: Verlander now has emerged as a legitimate candidate for the American League’s Most Valuable Player award. But should be considered for the honor? In fact, should any pitcher win an MVP? Heck, is Verlander even a lock for the Cy Young?
Justin Verlander is apparently dead set on making the rest of the 2011 season not that interesting. First, he decided to end any speculation about who might win the 2011 Cy Young Award by leading the league in nearly every pitching category you can think of, and then, he decided to help his team win enough games to make the AL Central race something less than a heated contest down the stretch.
Sure, there’s still more than a month of baseball left to play, but the Tigers have now opened up a 5 1/2 game lead over the Indians and White Sox, and recent injuries to the Tribe (most notably Travis Hafner’s potentially season ending foot problem) leave them looking like a bit of a long shot at this point. The Tigers haven’t won the division just yet, but assuming that they’ll join Texas, New York, and Boston in the playoffs is a decently safe bet at this point.
If we work off the assumption that those are the four likely playoff teams in the AL, then the interesting question becomes whether winning the AL East is a good idea or not. New York and Boston are currently slugging it out for the division title, but the loser is basically guaranteed the wild card spot, and so all they’re really playing for is home field advantage and the right to play the division winner with the lesser record in the first round.
The American League Central is pretty weak. Of all the teams in the division, only Cleveland has a positive run differential as of today, and that’s by only one run. A number of factors probably contribute to the divisional weakness: lower average budgets than some of the coastal divisions, poor decision making, and perhaps some bad luck. The division, however, is surprisingly strong this season in one area: shortstops. Can any other division compare?
Earlier today, Matt Klaassen praised the Tigers for being aggressive in their pursuit of a division title over the winter. This afternoon, Dave Dombrowski continued to add to his roster down the stretch, as he picked up Delmon Young from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for two minor league players. Given the kind of production that the Tigers have gotten from their outfielders this year, it’s not that surprising that they’d be in the market for an upgrade.
Given how poorly Young has played this season – and, really, throughout almost all of his disappointing career – there aren’t many contenders in baseball for whom he would represent a legitimate option as a regular player. His .292 wOBA is the worst of his career, and is especially lousy for a corner outfielder who also hurts you defensively. Young was quite a bit better last year, however, and has shown power in years past. We should expect that he’ll hit better down the stretch than he has to date in 2011, and if he does, he might actually represent an upgrade over what the Tigers have been getting from their right fielders.
